Security situation in the Central Europe after 1989 Richard Turcsanyi What is Security? •Security •sécurité •Sicherheit •seguridad •Bezpečnost •Безопасность •安全 •सुरक्षा •أمن •… • Security is… •à the condition/state of affairs of… • •…the absence of threats to acquired values (Wolfers) • •…a low probability of damage to acquired values (Baldwin) • Security dimensions (Baldwin) •Security for whom? •Security for which values? •How much security? •From what threats? •By what means? •At what cost? •In what time period? • What security studies? •Political Science •International Relations •Security Studies •Strategic Studies •Military Studies Security studies: driving forces •Events •Distribution of power •Technology •Academic debate Post Cold War •Lost of credit of the whole discipline… •International relations – relative rise of importance for IPE •Strategic Studies = useless? •Security Studies –Leave as it is (i.e. = strategic studies) –Small reform –Large reform •Richard Betts’ circles • Broadening and deepening of security studies Reference object / type of threat Military Military/Non-military States National security Comprehensive security (Environmental, economic, health, food threats) Societies, Groups, and Individuals Intrastate security (civil wars, ethnic conflicts) Human security Realism: “Bad people in anarchical world” •Human nature = bad, international system = anarchy •State = the (internal and external) protector of the values (i.e. provider of security) •Struggle for security + international anarchy à power of the state à security dilemma •Security = state security = state power •Thucydides, Machiavelli, Richelieu, Carr, Morgenthau, Kissinger, Waltz… •How to solve the security dilemma –Balance of power (deterrence) –Hegemony Liberalism: Ability to conquer the war •Human nature = good •International system = anarchy, but cooperation possible •War = the failure –Power to people, security for people •To prevent security dilemma –Liberal internationalism (Kant) –Idealism (Wilson) –liberal institutionalism (Mitrany, Haas, Keohane) •Neoliberal variants (neoliberal institutionalism) –Absolute gains –Complex interdependence –International regimes (neo)Marxist approaches •Economy at the basic of the conflicts •Classes not states are the main actors –International system based on (imperial) states will always cause conflicts à proletariat revolution •Hegemony and exploitation •Examples: –Dependency theories, core v. periphery models (Wallerstein’s world-systems approach) Constructivism: What is a threat and how it becomes one? •Wendt: “Anarchy is what states make out of it” •Security studies: –Rational approaches – there are objective threats to security •Constructivism – we don’t know what the threats are until they become so à perception of threat is crucial •Copenhagen school – securitization –Philosophical approach – discourse –Sociological approach – practical action • C:\Users\ricky\Desktop\Europe2pixelRedCold War Color.PNG Central Europe: Now what? • •Neutral area, security guaranteed mutually by West (NATO) and East (Russia) •Separate Central European organizations – “NATO-bis”, “EU-bis”, enhanced CSCE •Integration with the West (NATO & EU) à 1991 NATO: Now what? •NATO = useless? –M. Thatcher – „you don’t cancel your insurance policy just because there have been fewer burglaries on your street in the last twelve months.“ •Doctrinal shift: containment à enlargement •Key player – the USA •1993: Bill Clinton – “it’s economy, stupid” –Development of the position that security of Central Europe is absolutely vital for security of Europe and NATO –Problem: Russia (and Congress) NATO enlargement •1991 NACC (North Atlantic Cooperation Council) •1994 Partnership for Peace •1997 NACC à EAPC (Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council) •1997 Madrid summit – invitation to join NATO (CZ, PL, HU) •1997 NATO-Russia Permanent Joint Council •1999 First enlargement •2002 NATO Russia Council •2004 Second enlargement •2009 Third enlargement • • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\2000px-History_of_NATO_enlargement.svg.png EU energy sources, 2009 • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\image_xlarge.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\eu-natural-gas-imports-orgin-2012.jpg • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\20140405_gdm952.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\natural_gas_exports.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\Share_Of_Russias_Natura_fmt.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\russian-exports.png • C:\Users\Ricky\Desktop\wm3OP.png