Economic Aspects of Transformation A Changing Role of the Government I.Maly, Masaryk University Brno Content · Introduction ­ From a centrally planned command economy to a market (mixed) one ­ Milestones · Changes in the role of the government ­ Public Sector´s formation ­ Privatisation ­ New fiscal policy · Discussion Some history... · Until 1918, Austro-Hungarian Epire, Bohemia and Moravia were probably most industrialised parts (Skoda Pilsen: heavy industry, armaments), glass, textile, light industry... · 1918-1938, ,,First Republic", democracy, one of most developed countries in that time, however a heavy impact of Great Depression (1928- 1934). Weapons, transportation vehicles, glass, textile, shoemaking (Bata)..., ...continued · 1938-1945 Occupation, World War II, a lot of damages (certainly not that much like Germany...) · 1945-1948 Rebuilding, National Front Government, Nationalisation of German property, Coal mines, Heavy industry, Foreign Aid (UNRA), Devastating drought (1947) · 1948 ,,Winning February" ­ communist took all power ­ peoplés democracy, socialism (1960). Five-year plans, Industrialisation of Slovakia, Nationalisation of everything. Private sector almost disappeared. Socialist Economy · Centrally planned (five years plans) · Private sector non existing · Starting from late 60´s some attempts for reforms, economic incentives, ,,chozrasèot" · The growth of the economy was based on an output from heavy industry, coal mines, metallurgy, engineering, large constructions (dams), cement, energetic... · A member of Council for Mutual Economic Co-operation (USSR, Eastern European countries, Viet-Nam, ... · A clear lag behind Western democracies in terms of standard of living. · Environmental impacts (mainly northern parts of the country) deregulated deregulation with several exceptions (housing, energies..) regulated Prices dttomixture like anywhere else Convertible (floating) ,,Market"Market Germany, EU (old markets were lost, surprisingly fast recovery in some industries ­ car producers. foreign investment, privatisation (details see below) Convertible (fixed on DM and $) ­ early nineties... Semistate banks (bank socialism..) until 2001 when last major banks became fully private Transformati on Period (1990-20...) USSR, COMECOP... National ­ state... Not­ convertible Centrally planned by the government Socialist Main trade partners OwnershipCurrencyResource allocation Current Czech Economy over 48% overall deficit reached 10% below 2% close to 3% increased from 41% in 1998 ­ left wing government struggling with ,,burned country..." trade balance in a heavy deficit (although getting better) balance of capital flows ­ surplus (quite attractive for foreign investment) this JanuaryCore inflation even lower - price increase because of deregulations Has started actually rise in 1999. Serious depression in 1996-1997 Total public expen d. balance of payments unemploy ment inflation:growth: Changed role of the Government · from state monopoly to plurality in many branches of social services ­ building up a real Public Sector · from directive commands and plan to organising, standard legal environment, and economic incentives · from preferred state ownership to an equal treatment for all kinds of ownership · from the tough centralism to some decentralisation within government levels (stronger local govern.´s position) · lower level of redistribution Building up a New Public Sector (Principles of the Public Sector Transformation - PST) · diminishing of and changes in the general economic role of the government ­ the PS was created by reduction (a key question was ,,What should stay in government hands...") · privatisation, plurality ­ cream skimming, fears from losing a control.... · new fiscal and budget policy ­ (ambitious goals) · new social policy - social, health care, education reforms · public administration reform Privatisation · The specific nature of privatisation - it was a tool of eliminating a major systemic feature of the communist system - primarily ideological objectives! · Government's top priority was to privatise the public sector quickly and she did ­ naturally with some unpleasant consequences ­ tunneling, unclear structure of owners, a large share of semigovernmental agencies and banks.... Privatization - methods · restitution · ,,small-scale" privatization (services) · "large-scale" privatisation (in order to privatise large industrial enterprises) ­ They have either been sold directly to pre- approved buyers or transformed into joint- stock companies whose shares were sold either · directly to investors · or through voucher privatisation. Privatization ­ a magnitude · the share of the private sector was not higher than 4.2% of GDP before 1990 · less than 2% of registered property was private · 63% of GDP from private sector in 1995 ­ 85% services ­ 90% agriculture ­ 40% industrial output · much higher now Non-state sphere share in GDP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1992 1993 1994 1995 %of GDP Privatization 2 · ,,small" privatization in 1990 (services) · two waves of a coupon privatization · 8.5 mil. stock-holders after 1995 · major owners - banks and investment funds · massive foreign investment ,,,,Capitalism without a capital...Capitalism without a capital..."" Fiscal policy strategy `93 · graduate decline in the general budget`s share on GDP · balanced public budgets · stabilized public debt at current nominal level · a new tax system based on a neutrality, equity, and simplicity Public expenditures as a share of GDP (%) household transfers subsidies goods and services Public Debt Tax quota 34 34,5 35 35,5 36 36,5 37 37,5 38 38,5 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Social policy strategy · reform of the social benefit system ­ means tested allowances · reform of the health care system ­ public insurance ­ market incentives