Zadání Popište sezónnost čtvrtletního časové řady HDP s.c. roku 2000 v ČR za období 1996-2006 - řadu vyrovnejte centrovaným klouzavým průměrem - vypočítejte sezónní faktory pro jednotlivá čtvrtletí ##### Sheet 2 ##### HDP s.c. 2000 1 1996 Q1 498,778 2 Q2 537,635 3 Q3 539,037 4 Q4 540,155 5 1997 Q1 505,793 6 Q2 536,386 7 Q3 528,894 8 Q4 529,070 9 1998 Q1 497,415 10 Q2 531,216 11 Q3 526,879 12 Q4 528,693 13 1999 Q1 498,865 14 Q2 536,452 15 Q3 535,642 16 Q4 541,162 17 2000 Q1 514,660 18 Q2 556,769 19 Q3 556,739 20 Q4 561,001 21 2001 Q1 531,316 22 Q2 570,874 23 Q3 568,876 24 Q4 571,877 25 2002 Q1 542,468 26 Q2 582,671 27 Q3 577,999 28 Q4 582,350 29 2003 Q1 558,627 30 Q2 603,723 31 Q3 600,785 32 Q4 604,683 33 2004 Q1 578,525 34 Q2 629,289 35 Q3 626,574 36 Q4 633,227 37 2005 Q1 609,820 38 Q2 668,417 39 Q3 663,999 40 Q4 675,372 41 2006 Q1 648,899 42 Q2 709,617 43 Q3 703,232 44 Q4 714,631 ##### Sheet 3 ##### HDP s.c. 203-násobný 7-násobný centrovanýSezónní index 1996 Q1 498,778 Q2 537,635 525,150 Q3 539,037 538,942 529,7781.017477 sezónní faktor Q4 540,155 528,328 526,668 530,4991.018202 I 0.955 0.955 1997 Q1 505,793 527,445 530,996 529,0750.955995 II 1.023 1.023 Q2 536,386 523,691 525,250 526,4211.018929 III 1.011 1.011 Q3 528,894 531,450 524,133 523,9891.009362 IV 1.011 1.011 Q4 529,070 518,460 522,236 522,2951.012972 3.999995 4 1998 Q1 497,415 519,234 525,508 521,3970.954005 Q2 531,216 518,503 520,147 521,0981.019417 Q3 526,879 528,929 521,227 521,2321.010834 Q4 528,693 518,146 522,166 522,0681.01269 1999 Q1 498,865 521,337 528,416 523,8180.952364 Q2 536,452 523,653 526,050 526,4721.018957 Q3 535,642 537,752 530,320 530,0051.010636 Q4 541,162 530,488 534,327 534,5191.012429 2000 Q1 514,660 537,530 543,204 539,6950.953612 Q2 556,769 542,723 542,470 544,8121.021946 Q3 556,739 558,170 547,503 549,3741.013406 Q4 561,001 549,685 551,462 553,2191.014066 2001 Q1 531,316 554,397 559,636 556,5000.954746 Q2 570,874 557,022 557,593 559,3761.020555 Q3 568,876 570,542 561,298 562,1301.012001 Q4 571,877 561,074 563,726 564,9981.012175 2002 Q1 542,468 565,672 571,016 567,613 0.9557 Q2 582,671 567,713 569,267 570,0631.022117 Q3 577,999 581,007 574,245 573,3921.008035 Q4 582,350 572,992 578,375 578,0431.007451 2003 Q1 558,627 581,567 587,263 583,5230.957335 Q2 603,723 587,712 586,670 589,1631.024713 Q3 600,785 603,064 593,997 594,4421.010671 Q4 604,683 594,664 600,315 600,1251.007596 2004 Q1 578,525 604,166 610,972 606,5440.953805 Q2 629,289 611,463 611,843 613,3361.026011 Q3 626,574 629,697 621,505 620,8161.009275 Q4 633,227 623,207 629,979 629,6191.005731 2005 Q1 609,820 637,155 643,814 639,1880.954055 Q2 668,417 647,412 646,615 649,1341.029706 Q3 663,999 669,263 658,479 659,2871.007147 Q4 675,372 662,757 668,479 669,3221.009039 2006 Q1 648,899 677,963 683,452 679,3760.95514 Q2 709,617 687,249 689,1871.029643 Q3 703,232 709,160 Q4 714,631 ##### Sheet 4 ##### HDP s.c. 2000 Lineární trend Et et-et-1 et-et-1 na 2 et na 2 1 1996 Q1 498,778 487,691 11,087 122,917,672 2 Q2 537,635 491,815 45,820 34,734 1,206,427,091 2,099,516,716 3 Q3 539,037 495,938 43,099 -2,721 7,405,695 1,857,536,120 4 Q4 540,155 500,061 40,094 -3,005 9,032,072 1,607,512,979 5 1997 Q1 505,793 504,185 1,608 -38,485 1,481,121,446 2,587,149 6 Q2 536,386 508,308 28,078 26,470 700,642,865 788,380,875 7 Q3 528,894 512,431 16,463 -11,615 134,916,139 271,023,134 8 Q4 529,070 516,555 12,515 -3,947 15,581,498 156,636,229 9 1998 Q1 497,415 520,678 -23,263 -35,778 1,280,089,661 541,162,566 10 Q2 531,216 524,801 6,415 29,678 880,763,464 41,149,124 11 Q3 526,879 528,925 -2,046 -8,460 71,577,364 4,184,407 12 Q4 528,693 533,048 -4,355 -2,309 5,333,054 18,965,355 13 1999 Q1 498,865 537,171 -38,306 -33,951 1,152,693,533 1,467,369,839 14 Q2 536,452 541,295 -4,843 33,464 1,119,816,496 23,450,817 15 Q3 535,642 545,418 -9,776 -4,933 24,337,850 95,569,101 16 Q4 541,162 549,541 -8,379 1,397 1,950,657 70,212,429 17 2000 Q1 514,660 553,665 -39,005 -30,625 937,911,491 1,521,360,877 18 Q2 556,769 557,788 -1,019 37,986 1,442,910,315 1,038,294 19 Q3 556,739 561,911 -5,172 -4,153 17,250,239 26,752,767 20 Q4 561,001 566,035 -5,034 139 19,226 25,337,616 21 2001 Q1 531,316 570,158 -38,842 -33,808 1,143,003,898 1,508,700,110 22 Q2 570,874 574,281 -3,407 35,435 1,255,615,082 11,609,895 23 Q3 568,876 578,405 -9,529 -6,121 37,470,812 90,795,558 24 Q4 571,877 582,528 -10,651 -1,122 1,259,649 113,444,035 25 2002 Q1 542,468 586,651 -44,183 -33,532 1,124,417,870 1,952,168,564 26 Q2 582,671 590,775 -8,104 36,080 1,301,741,818 65,669,829 27 Q3 577,999 594,898 -16,899 -8,795 77,358,017 285,577,316 28 Q4 582,350 599,021 -16,671 228 51,829 277,934,699 29 2003 Q1 558,627 603,145 -44,518 -27,846 775,418,688 1,981,826,887 30 Q2 603,723 607,268 -3,545 40,973 1,678,758,813 12,567,415 31 Q3 600,785 611,391 -10,606 -7,061 49,862,532 112,495,628 32 Q4 604,683 615,515 -10,832 -225 50,778 117,326,511 33 2004 Q1 578,525 619,638 -41,113 -30,281 916,959,592 1,690,285,097 34 Q2 629,289 623,761 5,528 46,641 2,175,351,103 30,554,167 35 Q3 626,574 627,885 -1,311 -6,838 46,762,903 1,718,087 36 Q4 633,227 632,008 1,219 2,530 6,399,176 1,485,720 37 2005 Q1 609,820 636,131 -26,311 -27,530 757,919,657 692,291,854 38 Q2 668,417 640,255 28,162 54,474 2,967,379,562 793,110,620 39 Q3 663,999 644,378 19,621 -8,541 72,954,500 384,978,895 40 Q4 675,372 648,501 26,871 7,250 52,557,561 722,025,834 41 2006 Q1 648,899 652,625 -3,726 -30,596 936,136,062 13,881,602 42 Q2 709,617 656,748 52,869 56,595 3,202,955,466 2,795,116,049 43 Q3 703,232 660,871 42,361 -10,508 110,425,223 1,794,413,351 44 Q4 714,631 664,995 49,636 7,276 52,935,219 2,463,749,944 45 669,118 46 673,242 SUMA 29,180,590,750 26,069,724,118 47 677,365 48 681,488 D-W 1.1193