For more information: Facts & Figures section at www.unwto.org Tourism Highlights is a publication of the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO), released on the occasion of World Tourism Day, celebrated annually on 27 September. In 2009, the 30th World Tourism Day will be commemorated in Ghana under the theme `Tourism ­ Celebrating Diversity'. Tourism Highlights aims to provide a consolidated set of key figures and trends for international tourism in the year prior to its date of publication. For information on current short-term tourism data and trends, please refer to the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer at www.unwto.org/facts/eng/barometer.htm. The World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism know-how. Its membership includes 160 countries and territories and more than 390 Affiliate Members representing local governments, tourism associations and private sector companies including airlines, hotel groups and tour operators. ­ 2Tourism ­ a key to development, prosperity and well-being Over time, an increasing number of destinations have opened up and invested in tourism development, turning modern tourism into a key driver for socio-economic progress, through the creation of jobs and enterprises, infrastructure development, and the export income earned. Tourism has become one of the major international trade categories. The overall export income generated by international tourism including passengers transport reached US$ 1.1 trillion in 2008, or US$ 3 billion a day. Tourism exports account for as much as 30% of the world's exports of commercial services and 6% of overall exports of goods and services. Globally, as an export category, tourism ranks fourth after fuels, chemicals and automotive products. For many developing countries it is one of the main income sources and the number one export category, creating much needed employment and opportunities for development. The most comprehensive way to measure the economic importance of both international and domestic tourism in national economies is through the Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) Recommended Methodological Framework, approved by the UN Statistics Commission. Though many countries are in the process of implementing the Framework, relatively few have full, comparable results available. As data is currently still fragmented, it is not feasible to provide precise and detailed worldwide results. However, the knowledge and experience gained through the TSA exercise has certainly contributed to a much better understanding of the role of tourism in economies worldwide and allows for a tentative approximation of key indicators. Based on the information from countries with data available, the worldwide contribution of tourism to gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at some 5%. Tourism's contribution to employment tends to be slightly higher and is estimated in the order of 6-7% of the overall number of jobs (direct and indirect). For advanced, diversified economies, the contribution of tourism to the GDP ranges from approximately 2% for countries where tourism is a comparatively small sector, to over 10% for countries where tourism is an important pillar of the economy. For small islands and developing countries, or specific regional and local destinations where tourism is a key economic sector, the importance of tourism tends to be even higher. Key trends 2008: International tourist arrivals reached 922 million in 2008, up 18 million over 2007, representing a growth of 2%. International tourism receipts rose by 1.7% in real terms to US$ 944 billion (642 billion euros). Following four years of consecutive strong growth, an abrupt shift in trend occurred in the middle of the year, with tourism demand falling significantly under the influence of an extremely volatile world economy (financial crisis, commodity and oil price rises and sharp exchange rate fluctuations). Current developments and short-term outlook: According to the June 2009 UNWTO World Tourism Barometer, the decline in tourism demand continued to intensify in the first four months of 2009, sliding to -8% when compared to the same period in the previous year. The 2009 outlook is much dependent on the global economic performance and the evolution of the influenza A(H1N1) outbreak. Taking into account the results for the first four months of 2009 and current market conditions, the pace of decline is expected to ease during the remainder of the year and international tourist arrivals are projected to decrease by between -6% and -4% in 2009. As part of its response activity, UNWTO has created a Tourism Resilience Committee and a web resource (www.unwto.org/trc). Long-term trend: International tourist arrivals have continued to grow ­ from 25 million in 1950, to 277 million in 1980, to 438 million in 1990, to 684 million in 2000, and reaching 922 million in 2008. Over the past six decades, tourism has experienced continued growth and diversification to become one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors in the world. Many new destinations have emerged alongside the traditional ones of Western Europe and North America. As growth has been particularly high in the world's emerging regions, the share in international tourist arrivals received by developing countries has steadily risen, from 31% in 1990 to 45% in 2008. By 2020 international arrivals are expected to reach 1.6 billion. Overview International Tourism, 2008 2008 ­ International tourism challenged by deteriorating world economy In 2008, international tourist arrivals reached 922 million, up from 904 million in 2007, representing a growth of 2%. This overall growth builds on the strong results of the first part of the year, before the collapse of the financial markets and the subsequent recession. The second half of the year showed an abrupt shift in trend, with international arrivals flat or showing negative growth in each of the last six months of 2008. Overall, the 5% growth between January and June gave way to a 1% decline in the second half of the year. Though not immune to the economic woes, tourism has so far resisted the economic downturn better than other sectors, such as construction, real estate and car manufacturing. All regions had positive growth except Europe, which suffered stagnation in arrivals (+0.3%). The best performance was seen in the Middle East, where international arrivals reached 55 million, a rise of 18% over the previous year. Africa grew at half the rate of the previous year, but still registered an above-average growth of 4%. The Americas grew 3%, boosted by the strong performance of Central and South American destinations and the strength of traffic to the USA in the first half of the year. Asia and the Pacific saw a significant slowdown in arrivals as compared to its previous bumper years, growing just over 1% in 2008. International tourism receipts rose by 1.7% in real terms in 2008 to US$ 944 billion (642 billion euros). Receipts from international passenger transport are estimated at US$ 183 billion, bringing the total international tourism receipts including international passenger transport (i.e. visitor exports) to over US$ 1.1 trillion, corresponding to US$ 3 billion a day. This represents around 30% of the worldwide volume of service exports and 6% of overall exports of goods and services. Purpose of visit and means of transport In 2008, travel for leisure, recreation and holidays accounted for half of all international tourist arrivals (51% or a total of 467 million arrivals). Some 15% of international tourists reported travelling for business and professional purposes and another 27% travelled for other reasons, such as visiting friends and relatives (VFR), religious reasons/pilgrimages, health treatment, etc. The purpose of visit for the remaining 7% of arrivals was not specified. Slightly over half of travellers arrived at their destination by air transport (52%) in 2008, while the remainder travelled over the surface (48%) ­ whether by road (38%), rail (3%) or over water (6%). Over time, the trend has been for air transport to grow at a faster pace than surface transport, so the share of air transport is gradually increasing. Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Inbound Tourism, 1990-2008 Inbound Tourism by month International Tourist Arrivals (million) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Inbound tourism by purpose of visit, 2008 (share) Inbound tourism by means of transport, 2008 (share) ­ 3 ­ Growth in receipts mirrors that of arrivals Visitor expenditure on accommodation, food and drink, local transport, entertainment, shopping, is an important pillar of the economies of many destinations, creating much needed employment and opportunities for development. More than 80 countries earned over US$ 1 billion from international tourism in 2008. UNWTO estimates that worldwide receipts from international tourism reached US$ 944 billion (642 billion euros) in 2008. In absolute terms, international tourism receipts increased by US$ 87 billion, but only by 16 billion euros due to the depreciation of the US dollar against several world currencies and, in particular, the euro (in 2008 the US dollar lost 7% against the euro). In real terms, i.e. adjusted for exchange rate fluctuations and inflation, growth in international tourism receipts corresponded to 1.7%, only slightly lower than the growth in international tourist arrivals. After the substantial growth in 2006 and 2007 ­ of over 5% in both years ­ this represents a considerable slowdown. All regions shared in the increase in tourism receipts in absolute values. In real terms growth was in all regions much weaker in 2008 than the year before with the exception of the Middle East, which registered a doubledigit growth of 17%. Asia and the Pacific grew by 2.7% (compared to +9.8% in 2007) and the Americas increased by 5.0%, slightly less than 2007's 6.3%. Both Europe and Africa (-1% each), however, suffered negative growth in receipts in real terms. By subregion, the strongest increases came from North America (+7%) and South Asia (+6%). In Northern, Western and Southem/Mediterranean Europe, North Africa, the Caribbean and Central America, receipts declined in real terms in 2008. In the case of North Africa and Central America, the decline followed two years of very strong growth. International Tourism Receipts by (Sub) region International Tourist Arrivals Market Change Average annual (million) share (%) (%) growth (%) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2008* 07/06 08*/07 '00-'08* World 438 534 684 804 853 904 922 100 6.1 2.0 3.8 Europe 265.0 309.5 392.6 441.8 468.4 487.9 489.4 53.1 4.1 0.3 2.8 Northern Europe 28.6 35.8 43.7 52.8 56.5 58.1 57.0 6.2 2.8 -1.9 3.4 Western Europe 108.6 112.2 139.7 142.6 149.6 154.9 153.3 16.6 3.6 -1.1 1.2 Central/Eastern Europe 33.9 58.1 69.3 87.5 91.4 96.6 99.6 10.8 5.6 3.1 4.6 Southern/Mediter. Eu. 93.9 103.4 139.9 158.9 170.9 178.2 179.6 19.5 4.3 0.8 3.2 Asia and the Pacific 55.8 82.0 110.1 153.6 166.0 182.0 184.1 20.0 9.6 1.2 6.6 North-East Asia 26.4 41.3 58.3 86.0 92.0 101.0 101.0 10.9 9.8 -0.1 7.1 South-East Asia 21.2 28.4 36.1 48.5 53.1 59.7 61.7 6.7 12.3 3.5 6.9 Oceania 5.2 8.1 9.6 11.0 11.0 11.2 11.1 1.2 1.7 -0.9 1.8 South Asia 3.2 4.2 6.1 8.1 9.8 10.1 10.3 1.1 2.6 2.1 6.8 Americas 92.8 109.0 128.2 133.3 135.8 142.9 147.0 15.9 5.2 2.9 1.7 North America 71.7 80.7 91.5 89.9 90.6 95.3 97.8 10.6 5.2 2.6 0.8 Caribbean 11.4 14.0 17.1 18.8 19.4 19.8 20.2 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.1 Central America 1.9 2.6 4.3 6.3 6.9 7.8 8.3 0.9 12.0 7.0 8.4 South America 7.7 11.7 15.3 18.3 18.8 20.1 20.8 2.3 6.5 3.6 3.9 Africa 15.1 20.0 27.9 37.3 41.5 45.0 46.7 5.1 8.4 3.7 6.7 North Africa 8.4 7.3 10.2 13.9 15.1 16.3 17.2 1.9 8.5 4.9 6.7 Subsaharan Africa 6.7 12.7 17.6 23.4 26.5 28.7 29.5 3.2 8.3 3.1 6.7 Middle East 9.6 13.7 24.9 37.9 40.9 46.6 55.1 6.0 14.0 18.1 10.5 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) International Tourism Receipts Change Change (billion) current prices (%) constant prices (%) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008* 06/05 07/06 08*/07 05/04 06/05 07/06 08*/07 Local currencies 8.8 8.9 6.8 3.1 5.3 5.4 1.7 US$ 264 405 475 680 745 857 944 9.5 15.1 10.1 3.9 6.0 11.9 6.1 Euro 207 310 515 547 593 626 642 8.5 5.5 2.6 5.1 6.1 3.3 -0.6 International Tourist Arrivals by (Sub) region ­ 4 ­ World's Top Tourism Destinations For destination countries, receipts from international tourism count as exports and cover transactions generated by same-day as well as overnight visitors. However, these do not include receipts from international passenger transport contracted from companies outside the travellers' countries of residence, which are reported in a separate category, `International Passenger Transport'. Although the availability of comparable international data is somewhat limited, the export value of international passenger transport has in recent years been estimated at around 16% of the combined receipts from international tourism and passenger transport, corresponding in 2008 to some US$ 183 billion against US$ 164 billion in 2007. This takes total receipts from international tourism, including international passenger transport, to US$ 1.1 trillion in 2008. In other words, international tourism contributes over US$ 3 billion a day to the world economy. No major changes in the top ten When ranked according to the two key tourism indicators ­ international arrivals and international receipts it is interesting to note that eight of the ten top destinations appear in both lists, even though they show marked differences in terms of the types of tourists they attract, as well as their average length of stay and their spending per trip and per night. There were only slight changes in the ranking of the `World's Top Tourism Destinations' in 2008. The top three places ­ both by international tourist arrivals and international tourism receipts ­ were still occupied by the USA, Spain and France, albeit in a different order. France continued to lead the ranking of the world's major tourism destinations in terms of arrivals, but ranked third in receipts. The USA ranked first in receipts, earning US$ 110 billion and regained its second position in arrivals, which it lost to Spain after 11 September 2001. Spain dropped to third place in terms of arrivals but maintained its position as the second biggest earner worldwide, and the first in Europe. China and Italy both held on to their 2007 positions in terms of arrivals and receipts, with China ranking fourth in arrivals and fifth in receipts, while the reverse was true for Italy. The UK ranked sixth in arrivals and dropped to seventh place in receipts, after being overtaken by Germany (which ranked ninth in arrivals). Turkey moved up one rank in both categories, occupying the eighth position in arrivals and ninth in receipts. Completing the top ten ranking in arrivals were Ukraine (7) and Mexico (10) and in receipts, Australia (8) and Austria (10). The top ten tourism earners last year accounted for 49% of the total estimated US$ 944 billion in international tourism receipts. Their respective share of international tourist arrivals was slightly lower at 45%. International Tourism Receipts Change US$ Euro local currencies, Share Receipts Receipts constant prices (%) (%) (billion) per arrival (billion) per arrival 06/05 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2007 2008* 2008* 2007 2008* 2008* World 5.3 5.4 1.7 100 858 944 1,020 626 642 700 Europe 4.2 2.7 -1.1 50.2 435.2 473.7 970 317.5 322.1 660 Northern Europe 9.3 3.9 -2.4 7.4 70.7 69.8 1,220 51.6 47.5 830 Western Europe 4.0 2.3 -2.5 17.2 149.6 162.1 1,060 109.2 110.2 720 Central/Eastern Europe 8.4 9.0 2.7 6.2 48.5 58.1 580 35.4 39.5 400 Southern/Mediter, Eu, 1.6 1.0 -0.5 19.4 166.3 183.7 1,020 121.4 124.9 700 Asia and the Pacific 11.1 9.8 2.7 21.8 186.8 206.0 1,120 136.3 140.1 760 North-East Asia 12.1 8.5 3.1 10.2 85.8 95.9 950 62.6 65.2 650 South-East Asia 15.9 14.8 1.5 6.5 55.3 61.1 990 40.4 41.6 670 Oceania 1.2 7.0 2.4 3.6 31.9 33.9 3,050 23.3 23.0 2,080 South Asia 13.9 5.2 6.1 1.6 13.8 15.1 1,470 10.1 10.3 1,000 Americas 2.1 6.3 5.0 19.9 171.3 188.4 1,280 125.0 128.1 870 North America 0.8 7.2 7.0 14.7 124.9 138.5 1,420 91.1 94.2 960 Caribbean 4.2 0.6 -2.1 2.5 23.2 23.8 1,180 17.0 16.2 800 Central America 10.5 8.9 -0.5 0.7 6.2 6.8 820 4.5 4.6 560 South America 6.6 6.8 2.7 2.0 16.9 19.3 930 12.4 13.1 630 Africa 11.5 9.1 -1.0 3.2 29.1 30.6 650 21.2 20.8 440 North Africa 19.6 7.5 -4.4 1.1 10.2 10.7 630 7.5 7.3 430 Subsaharan Africa 7.7 9.9 0.7 2.1 18.9 19.9 670 13.8 13.5 460 Middle East 3.0 9.0 17.3 4.8 35.0 45.6 830 25.5 31.0 560 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) ­ 5 ­ Regional Results Out of all regions in the world, Europe's tourism sector, the world's largest and most mature, was the most severely affected by the global economic crisis that emerged in mid-2008. The region, which accounted for over 53% of the world's international tourist arrivals and 50% of international tourism receipts in 2008, achieved the weakest growth in international tourist arrivals (+0.3% to 489 million arrivals). The impact was even more severe in terms of tourism earnings ­ while international tourism receipts increased by 5 billion euros (US$ 39 billion), to 322 billion euros (US$ 474 billion), this represented a negative growth of 1% in real terms. Both Northern and Western Europe posted weaker arrivals figures for 2008. The world economic crisis and associated fluctuations in exchange rates heavily affected arrivals in both subregions, with many of their main tourism destinations recording negative results: the Netherlands (-8%), France (-3%), and the United Kingdom (-2%). A few countries, such as Germany, Switzerland and Austria, the latter two co-hosting the International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts US$ Local currencies Rank Million Change (%) Rank Billion Change (%) change (%) Series1 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 07/06 08*/07 1 France TF 81.9 79.3 3.9 -3.2 1 United States 96.7 110.1 12.8 13.8 12.8 13.8 2 United States TF 56.0 58.0 9.8 3.6 2 Spain 57.6 61.6 12.8 6.9 3.3 -0.4 3 Spain TF 58.7 57.3 1.1 -2.3 3 France 54.3 55.6 17.1 2.4 7.3 -4.6 4 China TF 54.7 53.0 9.6 -3.1 4 Italy 42.7 45.7 11.9 7.2 2.5 -0.1 5 Italy TF 43.7 42.7 6.3 -2.1 5 China 37.2 40.8 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.7 6 United Kingdom TF 30.9 30.2 0.7 -2.2 6 Germany 36.0 40.0 9.9 11.0 0.7 3.5 7 Ukraine TF 23.1 25.4 22.1 9.8 7 United Kingdom 38.6 36.0 11.6 -6.7 2.6 1.6 8 Turkey TF 22.2 25.0 17.6 12.3 8 Australia 22.3 24.7 25.0 10.6 12.5 10.3 9 Germany TCE 24.4 24.9 3.6 1.9 9 Turkey 18.5 22.0 9.7 18.7 9.7 18.7 10 Mexico TF 21.4 22.6 0.1 5.9 10 Austria 18.9 21.8 13.5 15.4 4.0 7.5 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) Europe ­ noting the effects of the global economic crisis Major destinations International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts Series1 (1000) Change (%) Share (%) (US$ million) Share (%) 2006 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2006 2007 2008* 2008* Europe 468,446 487,851 489,436 4.1 0.3 100 378,290 435,177 473,680 100 Austria TCE 20,269 20,773 21,935 2.5 5.6 4.5 16,643 18,885 21,791 4.6 Belgium TCE 6,995 7,045 7,165 0.7 1.7 1.5 10,295 10,898 12,396 2.6 Bulgaria TF 5,158 5,151 5,780 -0.1 12.2 1.2 2,612 3,130 3,804 0.8 Croatia TCE 8,659 9,307 9,415 7.5 1.2 1.9 7,902 9,254 10,971 2.3 Czech Rep TCE 6,435 6,680 6,649 3.8 -0.5 1.4 5,541 6,632 7,722 1.6 France TF 78,853 81,940 79,300 3.9 -3.2 16.2 46,345 54,273 55,595 11.7 Germany TCE 23,571 24,420 24,886 3.6 1.9 5.1 32,801 36,038 40,018 8.4 Greece TF 16,039 17,518 .. 9.2 .. .. 14,259 15,513 17,114 3.6 Hungary TF 9,260 8,638 8,814 -6.7 2.0 1.8 4,233 4,728 6,032 1.3 Ireland TF 8,001 8,332 8,026 4.1 -3.7 1.6 5,346 6,066 6,294 1.3 Italy TF 41,058 43,654 42,734 6.3 -2.1 8.7 38,130 42,651 45,727 9.7 Kazakhstan TF 3,468 3,876 3,447 11.8 -11.1 0.8 838 1,013 1,012 0.2 Netherlands TCE 10,739 11,008 10,104 2.5 -8.2 2.1 11,348 13,305 13,375 2.8 Poland TF 15,670 14,975 12,960 -4.4 -13.5 2.6 7,239 10,599 11,771 2.5 Portugal TF 11,282 12,321 .. 9.2 .. .. 8,377 10,145 10,943 2.3 Russian Federation TF 20,149 20,605 .. 2.3 .. .. 7,628 9,607 11,943 2.5 Spain TF 58,004 58,666 57,316 1.1 -2.3 11.7 51,122 57,645 61,628 13.0 Sweden CE 4,729 5,224 .. 10.5 .. 1.1 9,084 12,001 12,490 2.8 Switzerland TH 7,863 8,448 8,608 7.4 1.9 1.8 10,802 12,180 14,408 3.0 Turkey TF 18,916 22,248 24,994 17.6 12.3 5.1 16,853 18,487 21,951 4.6 Ukraine TF 18,936 23,122 25,392 22.1 9.8 5.2 3,485 4,597 5,768 1.2 United Kingdom TF 30,654 30,871 30,182 0.7 -2.2 6.2 34,597 38,602 36,028 7.6 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) * = provisional figure or data; .. = figure or data not (yet) available; I = change of series. 1 Series of International Tourist Arrivals ­ TF: International tourist arrivals at frontiers (excluding same-day visitors); VF: International visitor arrivals at frontiers (tourists and same-day visitors); THS: International tourist arrivals at hotels and similar establishments; TCE: International tourist arrivals at collective tourism establishments. ­ 6 ­ UEFA Football Championship, were able to maintain positive growth, with the first two increasing by 2%, while Austria experienced a 6% boost in arrivals. Central and Eastern Europe bucked the trend with an increase of 3% in arrivals in 2008. Still, there was wide variation from one destination to another, with various destinations, including Bulgaria, Ukraine, Kyrgyzstan, Georgia and Armenia, recording double-digit increases. Southern and Mediterranean Europe recorded only slight increases in arrivals (+0.8%) with destinations such as Italy and Spain registering declines in arrivals. One bright spot in the region was Turkey which, with its attractive exchange rate and relaxed visa regime, achieved an increase of 12% in arrivals over 2007. Asia and the Pacific experienced a significant slowdown in the growth pace of international tourist arrivals in 2008. The deceleration from +9.6% in 2007 to +1.2% in 2008 can be attributed principally to a rise in the price of tourism caused by increases in aviation fuel prices during the first half of the year. Growth in receipts in Asia outpaced that of arrivals. Year-on-year growth in receipts for the region was 2.7%, to US$ 206 billion, with South Asia (+6%) reporting the highest growth rate in real terms. North-East Asia experienced a significant drop in arrivals growth, from 10% in 2007 to -0.1% in 2008. The dynamo for tourism in the region, China, experienced a 3% decrease in arrivals, which may be attributed to visitors' fear of congestion, higher prices and security concerns brought on by the 2008 Summer Olympics. Playing host to the Olympics did, however, have a positive effect on China's tourism receipts, which grew by almost 10% (in US dollar terms). Arrivals in Japan stagnated in 2008, which can be explained in part by the Japanese yen's appreciation over the course of 2008. Destinations such as the Republic of Korea (+7%) and Taiwan (pr. of China) (+3%) bucked the trend and recorded above-average growth. South-East Asia and South Asia were the strongest performing subregions of Asia and the Pacific, growing at 3% and 2% in 2008. In South-East Asia, countries like Indonesia (+13%), Cambodia (+7%) and Malaysia (+5%) grew at above-average rates. Arrivals in India, the dominant destination in South Asia, grew 6%. Oceania reported the weakest arrivals figures in the region (-1%). The high costs of air travel ­ especially significant for distant destinations ­ coupled with the global economic environment and high exchange rates have negatively impacted international travel to Australia (-1%) and New Zealand (-0.3%). However, some of the Pacific Islands, such as Fiji (+8%), reported encouraging results in 2008. Regional Results Major destinations International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts Series1 (1000) Change (%) Share (%) (US$ million) Share (%) 2006 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2006 2007 2008* 2008* Asia and the Pacific 165,989 181,984 184,104 9.6 1.2 100 157,067 186,789 206,022 100 Australia VF 5,532 5,644 5,586 2.0 -1.0 3.0 17,840 22,298 24,660 12.0 Cambodia TF 1,591 1,873 2,001 17.7 6.8 1.1 963 1,135 1,221 0.6 China TF 49,913 54,720 53,049 9.6 -3.1 28.8 33,949 37,233 40,843 19.8 Fiji TF 549 540 585 -1.6 8.4 0.3 480 497 568 0.3 Guam TF 1,212 1,225 1,142 1.1 -6.8 0.6 .. .. .. .. Hong Kong (China) TF 15,822 17,154 17,320 8.4 1.0 9.4 11,638 13,754 15,300 7.4 India TF 4,447 5,082 5,367 14.3 5.6 2.9 8,634 10,729 11,832 5.7 Indonesia TF 4,871 5,506 6,234 13.0 13.2 3.4 4,448 5,346 7,375 3.6 Iran TF 2,735 2,172 .. -20.6 .. .. 1,452 1,486 .. .. Japan VF 7,334 8,347 8,351 13.8 0.0 4.5 8,469 9,334 10,821 5.3 Korea. Republic of VF 6,155 6,448 6,891 4.8 6.9 3.7 5,788 6,138 9,078 4.4 Lao P.D.R. TF 842 1,142 1,295 35.6 13.4 0.7 173 233 276 0.1 Macao (China) TF 10,683 12,942 10,605 21.2 .. 5.8 9,829 13,612 13,382 6.5 Malaysia TF 17,547 20,973 22,052 19.5 5.1 12.0 10,424 14,047 15,277 7.4 Maldives TF 602 676 683 12.3 1.1 0.4 512 602 636 0.3 New Zealand VF 2,422 2,466 2,459 1.8 -0.3 1.3 4,738 5,400 4,912 2.4 Nepal TF 384 527 500 37.2 -5.0 0.3 128 198 336 0.1 Pakistan TF 898 840 823 -6.6 -2.0 0.5 255 276 245 0.1 Philippines TF 2,843 3,092 3,139 8.7 1.5 1.7 3,501 4,931 4,388 2.1 Singapore TF 7,588 7,957 7,778 4.9 -2.2 4.2 7,535 9,162 10,575 5.1 Sri Lanka TF 560 494 438 -11.7 -11.2 0.3 410 385 342 0.2 Taiwan (pr. of China)VF 3,520 3,716 3,845 5.6 3.5 2.1 5,136 5,213 5,937 2.9 Thailand TF 13,822 14,464 14,584 4.6 0.8 7.9 13,401 16,669 17,651 8.6 Vietnam VF 3,584 4,229 4,236 18.0 0.2 2.3 3,200 3,477 3,926 1.9 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) 1 See note on page 6. Asia and the Pacific ­ rising cost of travel dampens growth ­ 7 ­ I International tourist arrivals in the Americas grew by 3% in 2008, to 147 million, where Central and South America led the way with above-average increases of 7% and 4% respectively. Growth in receipts in the region (+5%) tripled that of the world (+1.7%), with the strongest performance coming from North America (+7%). International tourism receipts for the Americas totalled US$ 188 billion in 2008, representing 20% of the world total. Arrivals in South America were up 4%, following 2007's increase of 7%. Strongest performers in the subregion were Uruguay (+10%), Chile (+8%), Peru (+7%) and Ecuador (+7%). International arrivals in Argentina and Brazil, on the other hand, grew at more modest rates of 2% and 0.5%, respectively. In Central America, Panama had an excellent year, showing double-digit growth of 17%, and other countries, like Honduras (+8%), Nicaragua (+7%), Costa Rica (+6%) and Guatemala (+5%), also enjoyed above average growth in 2008. The results for North America were mixed. Mexico was up 6%, as against a flat 2007. The USA's performance was very strong in the first eight months but the looming recession in major source markets brought growth to a halt, ending the year at 4%. By contrast, arrivals in Canada continued to slide (-4%), due to factors which include a poor exchange rate, stricter travel restrictions to/from the USA, and reduced airline capacity from important source markets in Europe and Japan. The Caribbean saw arrivals grow by 2%. Cuba (+9%) and Aruba (+7%) posted excellent results and destinations such as Jamaica (+4%) and Puerto Rico (+6%) also did better than the subregion overall. Weaker results in the rest of the subregion can be attributed in large part on high airfares and decreased airline capacity, as well as economic difficulties in the USA and Europe. Africa's growth of 4% to 47 million international tourist arrivals, though at half the level achieved in 2007, was still very positive when compared to the world's performance overall. International tourism receipts amounted to US$ 31 billion, signifying a decrease of 1% in real terms. It is important to note that this decline followed a series of previous strong growth years. North African countries Morocco (+6%) and Tunisia (+4%) posted good results, which can be attributed to strong government support coupled with easy access and attractive prices compared to `euro' destinations Regional Results Americas ­ still considerable growth in Central and South America Africa ­ above average growth in arrivals Major destinations International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts Series1 (1000) Change (%) Share (%) (US$ million) Share (%) 2006 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2006 2007 2008* 2008* Americas 135,791 142,866 147,037 5.2 2.9 100 154,503 171,295 188,355 100 Argentina TF 4,173 4,562 4,665 9.3 2.3 3.2 3,344 4,314 4,633 2.5 Aruba TF 694 772 827 11.2 7.1 0.6 1,080 1,255 1,412 0.7 Bahamas TF 1,601 1,528 1,463 -4.6 -4.2 1.0 2,056 2,187 2,153 1.1 Barbados TF 563 575 568 2.1 -1.2 0.4 1,057 1,199 1,192 0.6 Bolivia TF 521 573 594 9.9 3.7 0.4 244 292 275 0.1 Brazil TF 5,017 5,026 5,050 0.2 0.5 3.4 4,316 4,953 5,785 3.1 Canada TF 18,265 17,931 17,128 -1.8 -4.5 11.6 14,642 15,333 15,106 8.0 Chile TF 2,253 2,507 2,699 11.3 7.7 1.8 1,213 1,478 1,757 0.9 Colombia VF 1,053 1,195 1,222 13.5 2.2 0.8 1,554 1,669 1,844 1.0 Costa Rica TF 1,725 1,980 2,089 14.8 5.5 1.4 1,732 2,029 2,250 1.2 Cuba TF 2,150 2,119 2,316 -1.4 9.3 1.6 2,127 2,141 2,267 1.2 Dominican Rep. TF 3,965 3,980 3,980 0.4 0.0 2.7 3,917 4,064 4,176 2.2 Ecuador VF 841 937 1,005 11.5 7.2 0.7 490 623 763 0.4 El Salvador TF 1,279 1,339 1,385 4.7 3.5 0.9 793 847 894 0.5 Guatemala TF .. 1,448 1,527 .. 5.4 1.0 919 1,055 1,068 0.6 Honduras TF 739 831 899 12.6 8.2 0.6 488 557 621 0.3 Jamaica TF 1,679 1,701 1,767 1.3 3.9 1.2 1,870 1,910 1,984 1.1 Mexico TF 21,353 21,370 22,637 0.1 5.9 15.4 12,177 12,852 13,289 7.1 Nicaragua TF 749 800 858 6.8 7.2 0.6 231 255 276 0.1 Panama TF 843 1,103 1,293 30.8 17.2 0.9 960 1,185 1,408 0.7 Peru TF 1,721 1,916 2,058 11.4 7.4 1.4 1,570 1,723 1,991 1.1 Puerto Rico TF 3,722 3,687 3,894 -0.9 5.6 2.6 3,369 3,414 3,644 1.9 United States TF 50,977 55,986 58,030 9.8 3.6 39.5 85,720 96,712 110,090 58.4 Uruguay TF 1,749 1,752 1,921 0.2 9.7 1.3 598 809 1,042 0.6 Venezuela TF 748 771 745 3.0 -3.4 0.5 768 817 895 0.5 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) 1 See note on page 6. ­ 8 ­ on the northern shores of the Mediterranean. A number of Subsaharan African destinations reported positive growth, with Angola, Ghana, Mali and Uganda turning in double-digit results. Boosted by increased funding for tourism and targeted marketing promotions, South Africa, the leading destination in the region, increased international arrivals by 6%, boosted by the build-up to the hosting of the FIFA 2010 Football World Cup. The Middle East has succeeded in sustaining the high growth rate of the past few years. International arrivals in the region as a whole grew an estimated 18% to 55 million, and receipts increased 17% in real terms, reaching US$ 46 billion. Lebanon, Syria (both +31%) and Saudi Arabia (+28%) led the way in arrivals growth, followed by Egypt (+16%), Oman (+13%) and Jordan (+9%). Regional Results Major destinations International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts Series1 (1000) Change (%) Share (%) (US$ million) Share (%) 2006 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2006 2007 2008* 2008* Africa 41,534 45,016 46,700 8.4 3.7 100 24,896 29,089 30,612 100 Algeria VF 1,638 1,743 1,771 6.4 1.6 3.8 215 219 .. .. Angola TF 121 195 294 60.4 51.0 0.6 75 225 .. .. Botswana TF 1,843 1,990 2,131 8.0 7.1 4.6 537 546 553 1.8 Cape Verde TF 242 267 285 10.4 6.7 0.6 228 303 350 1.1 Ethiopia TF 290 312 330 7.4 5.8 0.7 162 176 374 1.2 Gambia TF 125 143 147 14.3 2.9 0.3 75 84 .. .. Ghana TF 497 587 698 18.0 19.0 1.5 861 908 919 3.0 Kenya TF 1,644 .. .. .. .. .. 687 917 752 2.5 Lesotho TF 346 292 285 -15.7 -2.5 0.6 36 43 33 0.1 Madagascar TF 312 344 375 10.4 9.0 0.8 232 269 333 1.1 Malawi TF 638 735 742 15.2 1.0 1.6 24 27 .. .. Mali TF 153 164 190 7.4 15.9 0.4 175 221 .. .. Mauritius TF 788 907 930 15.1 2.6 2.0 1,007 1,299 1,449 4.7 Morocco TF 6,558 7,408 7,879 12.9 6.4 16.9 5,984 7,181 7,202 23.6 Namibia TF 833 929 .. 11.5 .. .. 384 434 378 1.2 Reunion TF 279 381 396 36.5 4.2 0.8 335 447 505 1.7 Senegal TF 866 875 .. 1.0 .. .. 250 531 .. .. Seychelles TF 141 161 159 14.7 -1.4 0.3 228 285 258 0.8 South Africa TF 8,396 9,091 9,592 8.3 5.5 20.5 7,875 8,418 7,609 24.9 Sudan TF 328 436 .. 32.9 .. .. 252 262 331 1.1 Swaziland THS 873 870 754 -0.4 -13.3 1.6 75 32 .. .. Tanzania TF 628 692 750 10.2 8.4 1.6 950 1,199 1,354 4.4 Tunisia TF 6,550 6,762 7,049 3.2 4.2 15.1 2,275 2,575 2,932 9.6 Uganda TF 539 642 844 19.2 31.5 1.8 346 398 498 1.6 Zambia TF 757 897 812 18.5 -9.5 1.7 110 138 .. .. Zimbabwe VF 2,287 2,508 .. 9.7 .. .. 338 365 .. .. Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) 1 See note on page 6. Major destinations International Tourist Arrivals International Tourism Receipts Series1 (1000) Change (%) Share (%) (US$ million) Share (%) 2006 2007 2008* 07/06 08*/07 2008* 2006 2007 2008* 2008* Middle East 40,900 46,646 55,106 14.0 18.1 100 29,863 34,983 45,640 100 Bahrain TF 4,519 4,935 .. 9.2 .. .. 1,048 1,105 1,166 2.6 Egypt TF 8,646 10,610 12,296 22.7 15.9 22.3 7,591 9,303 10,985 24.1 Jordan TF 3,225 3,430 3,729 6.4 8.7 6.8 2,060 2,311 2,943 6.4 Lebanon TF 1,063 1,017 1,333 -4.3 31.0 2.4 4,981 5,466 7,192 15.8 Oman TF 1,336 1,124 1,273 -15.9 13.3 2.3 544 648 804 1.8 Qatar TF 946 964 .. 1.9 .. .. 874 .. .. .. Saudi Arabia TF 8,620 11,531 14,757 33.8 28.0 26.8 4,961 5,228 9,720 21.3 Syrian Arab Republic TF 4,231 4,158 5,430 -1.7 30.6 9.9 2,025 2,883 .. .. Untd Arab Emirates THS .. .. .. .. .. .. 4,972 6,072 7,162 15.7 Yemen THS 382 379 404 -0.8 6.6 0.7 181 425 .. .. Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) 1 See note on page 6. Middle East ­ sustained growth amid turbulent times ­ 9 ­ Outbound Tourism Middle East outbound market continues dynamic growth trend Majority of international travel takes place within the traveller's own region, with about four out of five worldwide arrivals originating from the same region. However, travel between different regions tends to grow at a somewhat faster rate than intraregional travel. In 2008, interregional travel increased by 3.1% as against a growth of 1.7% for intraregional traffic. Source markets for international tourism are still largely concentrated in the industrialized countries of Europe, the Americas and Asia and the Pacific. However, with rising levels of disposable income, many emerging economies have shown fast growth over recent years, especially markets in North-East and SouthEast Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Southern Africa and South America. Europe is currently the most important source market, generating 55% of international arrivals worldwide in 2008, followed by Asia and the Pacific (20%) and the Americas (16%). All three regions grew at below average rates as the global economic crisis dampened growth in most source markets in the second part of the year. The Middle East, however, continued its dynamic growth, recording an annual increase of 16%. Outbound tourism from Africa also maintained growth at a rate of 5%. International tourism's top spenders ­ virtually equal to last year's line-up The ranking of international tourism spenders shows no major changes in 2008 apart from the fact that the Netherlands re-entered after a few years of absence, taking the number ten spot. Among the world's top ten spenders, apart from China (+21% in US$ terms), the Russian Federation (+12% in US$ terms) did particularly well in 2008, as did France (+10%) and Canada (+8%). Just one market, Japan, recorded negative growth (-8%), while world's top spender Germany increased spending only by a modest 2% for the year. In spite of an overall cooling of tourism growth in the second half of 2008, emerging source markets again turned in some of the best performances, with many registering growth rates of over 15% ­ Brazil, Hungary, South Africa, India, Bulgaria, Ukraine, China, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Malaysia and Argentina. International Tourism Local currencies Market Population Expenditure Rank Expenditure (US$ billion) change (%) share (%) 2008 per capita 2007 2008* 2007/2006 2008*/2007 2008* (million) (US$) World 857 943 100 6,724 140 1 Germany 83.1 91.0 2.9 2.0 9.7 82 1,108 2 United States 76.4 79.7 5.9 4.4 8.5 304 262 3 United Kingdom 71.4 68.5 4.1 4.4 7.3 61 1,121 4 France 36.7 43.1 7.9 9.6 4.6 62 693 5 China 29.8 36.2 22.5 21.4 ($) 3.8 1,328 27 6 Italy 27.3 30.8 8.4 4.9 3.3 59 519 7 Japan 26.5 27.9 -0.2 -7.6 3.0 128 218 8 Canada 24.7 26.9 13.3 8.4 2.9 33 810 9 Russian Federation 22.3 24.9 22.1 11.8 ($) 2.6 142 175 10 Netherlands 19.1 21.7 2.6 6.2 2.3 17 1,301 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) ($) = percentage derived from series in US$ instead of local currency International Tourist Arrivals Share Change Average annual (million) (%) (%) growth (%) 1990 1995 2000 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2008* 07/06 08*/07 '00-08* World 438 534 684 804 853 904 922 100 6.1 2.0 3.8 From: Europe 254.2 308.1 395.6 451.5 475.2 502.6 508.7 55.2 5.8 1.2 3.2 Asia and the Pacific 58.8 86.6 114.2 153.2 164.0 178.3 181.6 19.7 8.7 1.8 6.0 Americas 99.3 108.6 131.1 136.3 142.8 149.5 151.8 16.5 4.7 1.5 1.9 Middle East 8.2 9.3 14.1 22.6 24.6 27.0 31.5 3.4 9.7 16.4 10.6 Africa 10.0 12.7 16.3 22.1 24.9 27.2 28.6 3.1 9.1 5.0 7.3 Origin not specified 7.9 8.9 12.5 18.3 21.0 19.7 20.2 2.2 Same region 352.8 429.4 540.2 635.3 670.3 710.5 722.5 78.3 6.0 1.7 3.7 Other regions 77.7 96.0 131.0 150.3 161.3 174.2 179.6 19.5 7.9 3.1 4.0 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) (Data as collected by UNWTO, 2009) 1 Countries that could not be allocated to a specific region of origin. As information is derived from inbound tourism data this occurs when data on the country of origin is missing or when a category such as 'other countries of the world' is used grouping countries together that are not seperately specified. ­ 10 ­ Long-term prospects Tourism 2020 Vision is the World Tourism Organization's long-term outlook and assessment of the development of tourism up to the first 20 years of the new millennium. An essential outcome of the Tourism 2020 Vision are quantitative forecasts covering a 25-year period, with 1995 as the base year and forecasts for 2010 and 2020. Although the evolution of tourism over recent years has been somewhat irregular, for the moment UNWTO has maintained its long-term forecast. The underlying structural trends of the forecast are believed not to have changed significantly. Experience shows that in the short term, periods of faster growth (1995, 1996, 2000, and 2004 to 2007) alternate with periods of slow growth (2001 to 2003, 2008). In fact, the actual pace of growth has actually been slightly faster than the Tourism 2020 Vision forecast as international tourist arrivals showed an average annual growth of 4.3% between 1995 and 2008, compared with the projected 4.1%. As part of its program of work, UNWTO is currently undertaking a major update of it long-term outlook with the project Tourism Towards 2030. International Tourist Arrivals by Region (million) UNWTO´s Tourism 2020 Vision projects that international arrivals are expected to reach nearly 1.6 billion by the year 2020. Of these worldwide arrivals in 2020, 1.2 billion will be intraregional and 0.4 billion will be long-haul travellers. East Asia and the Pacific, South Asia, the Middle East and Africa are forecast to grow at over 5% per year, compared to the world average of 4.1%. More mature regions Europe and the Americas are anticipated to show lower-than-average growth rates. Europe will maintain the highest share of world arrivals, although this share will decline from 60% in 1995 to 46% in 2020. The total tourist arrivals by region shows that, by 2020, the top three receiving regions will be Europe (717 million tourists), East Asia (397 million) and the Americas (282 million), followed by Africa, the Middle East and South Asia. Average annual Share Base Year Forecasts growth rate (%) (%) 1995 2010 2020 1995-2020 1995 2020 Total 565 1,006 1,561 4.1 100 100 Africa 20 47 77 5.5 3.6 5.0 Americas 109 190 282 3.9 19.3 18.1 East Asia/Pacific 81 195 397 6.5 14.4 25.4 Europe 338 527 717 3.0 59.8 45.9 Middle East 12 36 69 7.1 2.2 4.4 South Asia 4 11 19 6.2 0.7 1.2 Intraregional (a) 464 791 1,183 3.8 82.1 75.8 Long-haul (b) 101 216 378 5.4 17.9 24.2 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Notes: (a) Intraregional includes arrivals where country of origin is not specified. (b) Long-haul is defined as everything except intraregional travel. International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2020 Source: World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) Tourism 2020 Vision ­ 11 ­ UNWTO World Tourism Barometer The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer offers a unique overview of short-term international tourism trends. It is developed by UNWTO with the aim to provide all those directly or indirectly involved in tourism with adequate up-todate statistics and analysis in a timely fashion. Each issue contains three regular sections: an overview of short-term tourism trends including data on international tourist arrivals, tourism receipts and expenditure for over 100 countries worldwide and data on air transport on major routes; a retrospective and prospective evaluation of current tourism performance by the members of the UNWTO Panel of Tourism Experts; and selected economic data relevant for tourism. The UNWTO World Tourism Barometer is updated in January, June and October. Available in English, French and Spanish Handbook on Tourism Destination Branding All over, governments have become aware of tourism's power to boost their nation's development and prosperity. As more tourism destinations emerge and competition for visitors becomes more intense, a destination's ability to project itself on the world stage and differentiate itself from others is ever more important. Recognizing the value of successfully building and managing a destination's brand, the ETC and the UNWTO provide a useful and practical handbook for both marketing novices and experienced destination managers. Introduced by Simon Anholt, it offers a step-by-step guide to the branding process accompanied by strategies for brand management. Case studies illustrate the various concepts, present best practices from around the world and provide fresh insight into destination branding. It concludes with a section on evaluating brand impact and a set of practical recommendations. Available in English The Chinese Outbound Travel Market with Special Insight into the Image of Europe as a Destination China is one of the fastest growing outbound markets in the world. Rising incomes and relaxation of restrictions on foreign travel led to a growth of 22% a year in trips abroad since 2000 (34.5 million in 2006). China ranks 5th worldwide in terms of spending on international tourism (US$ 30 billion in 2007). In 1995, the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) predicted that China would generate 100 million arrivals worldwide by 2020, making it the fourth largest market in the world (Tourism 2020 Vision). In view of recent trends, China may reach that target well before 2020. To better understand the structure and trends of this market is the aim of the new ETC/UNWTO report The Chinese Outbound Travel Market with Special Insight into the Image of Europe as a Destination. Available in English The Indian Outbound Travel Market with Special Insight into the Image of Europe as a Destination India is one of the fastest-growing outbound travel markets in the world. Trips abroad have grown from 3.7 (1997) to 9.8 million (2007) and international tourism expenditure has increased from US$ 1.3 (1997) to US$ 8.2 billion (2008). With more than 1.1 billion inhabitants and GDP increasing by more than 8% every year, the country offers enormous potential for future growth in outbound travel. Recognizing the importance of this market, the ETC and the UNWTO have undertaken detailed research on the Indian outbound market. This publication covers issues such as travellers' behaviour and patterns ­ destination choice, purpose of travel, spending, holiday activities and market segmentation, as well as the media or internet use trends. The report also sets out recommendations on how to best promote a destination in the Indian market. Available in English World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) PublicationsWorld Tourism Organization Compendium of Tourism Statistics, 2009 Edition The Compendium of Tourism Statistics is designed to provide a condensed and quick-reference guide on the major tourism statistical indicators in each country. The 2009 edition provides statistical information on tourism in 208 countries and territories around the world for the period 2003 ­ 2007. This publication is edited in English and includes text in Arabic, French, German, Russian and Spanish printed in a separate pasteboard. Yearbook of Tourism Statistics, 2009 Edition The Yearbook of Tourism Statistics provides data on total arrivals and overnight stays associated with inbound tourism, with a breakdown by country of origin for 204 countries and territories for the period 2003 ­ 2007. It is available in English, with notes given in English, French and Spanish. The Russian Outbound Travel Market with Special Insight into the Image of Europe as a Destination Russia is the 9th biggest outbound travel market in the world, generating in 2007 US$ 22 billion in spending abroad. To better understand the structure and trends of this growing market is the aim of this ETC/UNWTO report, which identifies key trends in the Russian outbound travel ­ among others, the market size and value, growth in trip volume and spending, purpose of trip, destination choice, the role of the travel trade and online distribution. In addition, the publication provides information on government policy affecting outbound travel, notably visa issues and traffic rights for foreign airlines operating to/from the country. All this information is critical to helping destinations and commercial operators plan ahead with greater foresight, providing guidance on the short-term opportunities and the longer-term potential for investment in this market. Available in English Handbook on E-marketing for Tourism Destinations This handbook is the first of its kind for tourism destinations. It is a practical `how-to' manual designed to help staff at national, regional and city tourism organisations, to improve their e-marketing skills and manage new projects. It covers all the basics such as web design, search engine optimisation, social networking and e-commerce, and advices among others on how to build better content, get distribution of it, use CRM, succeed with online PR and get into mobile marketing. Web analytics, online research methods, and performance measurement get full treatment and new areas like digital television are covered. Also, it includes over 30 examples of e-marketing in action. Available in English Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies Tourism demand is a complex phenomenon which can be affected by an incredible number of different exogenous factors ­ economy, fuel prices, infrastructure, natural disasters, the image of a destination, etc. Therefore, tourism demand, in all of its different forms, is one of the most difficult variables to foresee. Nonetheless, it gets more and more important for destinations and private sector alike to anticipate demand trends and use such knowledge as a basis of management decisions and planning. This Handbook on Tourism Forecasting Methodologies aims to be a simple guide to the complex world of tourism forecasting. It presents the basic forecasting techniques, their advantages and disadvantages as well as some practical examples of such methodologies in action. It also includes a CD where the methodologies are further explained and exemplified in an excel file. Available in English The World Tourism Organization is a specialized agency of the United Nations and the leading international organization in the field of tourism. It serves as a global forum for tourism policy issues and a practical source of tourism knowhow. Its membership includes 160 countries and territories and more than 390 Affiliate Members representing local governments, tourism associations and private sector companies including airlines, hotel groups and tour operators. The easy way to order UNWTO publications: www.unwto.org/infoshop For further information, please contact: UNWTO Publications Department Tel. (34) 91 567 8100 - Fax: (34) 91 571 3733 e-mail: pub@unwto.org