poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 313427 9614.31 50394.8 S02 32122.3 S03 37107.8 S04 DATE NOBS HDPCR WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 1995Q1 1 332995 329412 327022.8 10012.5 2388.9 3583 3583 12840242 1995Q2 2 366618 374110 328710.4 9180.0 45399.9 -7492 7492 56135094 1995Q3 3 376688 374285 340560.5 9447.0 33724.4 2403 2403 5774925 1995Q4 4 390221 389103 351249.8 9571.2 37853.2 1118 1118 1250033 1996Q1 5 382859 375499 368202.9 10309.4 7295.8 7360 7360 54174710 1996Q2 6 423953 410826 399685.5 12426.7 11140.3 13127 13127 172322602 1996Q3 7 432152 441282 401968.2 11412.3 39313.5 -9130 9130 83350460 1996Q4 8 444324 445325 412268.1 11301.1 33057.0 -1001 1001 1002221 1997Q1 9 415593 421075 417434.6 10687.6 3640.8 -5482 5482 30057035 1997Q2 10 455790 447057 433938.5 11269.2 13118.1 8733 8733 76273167 1997Q3 11 461902 459903 447429.3 11491.4 12473.3 1999 1999 3997698 1997Q4 12 477809 485162 450750.6 10674.4 34411.4 -7353 7353 54067542 1998Q1 13 457925 462685 462218.0 10753.7 467.3 -4760 4760 22660367 1998Q2 14 512225 498182 485179.6 11974.5 13002.6 14043 14043 197198119 1998Q3 15 512408 511639 498008.4 12059.9 13630.7 769 769 591188 1998Q4 16 513925 517027 506621.7 11715.3 10405.3 -3102 3102 9622342 1999Q1 17 481895 496437 505664.3 10448.0 -9227.3 -14542 14542 211468486 1999Q2 18 532968 523810 517237.5 10560.5 6572.6 9158 9158 83867713 1999Q3 19 529465 533546 523263.7 10107.1 10282.1 -4081 4081 16653154 1999Q4 20 536469 540261 529157.8 9685.8 11102.9 -3792 3792 14376965 2000Q1 21 504479 514804 530914.5 8892.9 -16110.6 -10325 10325 106604093 2000Q2 22 558691 544159 543697.7 9281.9 460.9 14532 14532 211190428 2000Q3 23 557780 558418 552270.7 9211.0 6147.3 -638 638 407022 2000Q4 24 568219 569495 560063.8 9069.2 9431.3 -1276 1276 1628526 2001Q1 25 540124 543379 561659.4 8321.9 -18280.5 -3255 3255 10594113 2001Q2 26 598842 575298 575712.6 8895.0 -414.6 23544 23544 554320742 2001Q3 27 599262 594152 590285.0 9462.7 3867.4 5110 5110 26108585 2001Q4 28 613986 611073 602984.1 9786.4 8089.1 2913 2913 8484209 2002Q1 29 576665 579476 599630.2 8472.3 -20154.4 -2811 2811 7900763 2002Q2 30 630141 605588 607500.3 8412.1 -1912.1 24553 24553 602835399 2002Q3 31 621004 619022 618114.9 8632.4 906.9 1982 1982 3929151 2002Q4 32 636622 634459 629150.2 8872.7 5309.1 2163 2163 4677021 2003Q1 33 598385 601237 623292.1 7399.6 -22055.5 -2852 2852 8131593 2003Q2 34 660401 631720 632754.3 7605.8 -1034.0 28681 28681 822580377 2003Q3 35 650791 646348 645297.3 8099.6 1050.2 4443 4443 19744192 2003Q4 36 667533 662770 658688.6 8628.7 4081.9 4763 4763 22681718 2004Q1 37 650616 644080 661777.4 8074.7 -17697.9 6536 6536 42724905 2004Q2 38 716444 679554 677016.6 8791.2 2537.7 36890 36890 1360850123 2004Q3 39 712711 702654 696982.7 9908.7 5670.9 10057 10057 101150708 2004Q4 40 737591 726917 718751.1 11094.7 8166.1 10674 10674 113929635 2005Q1 41 697345 696858 714230.9 9533.2 -17373.1 487 487 237342 2005Q2 42 762115 728836 724348.6 9591.6 4487.9 33279 33279 1107463951 2005Q3 43 756632 749376 742001.8 10397.8 7374.7 7256 7256 52642309 2005Q4 44 778304 771020 760493.0 11207.1 10527.0 7284 7284 53057207 2006Q1 45 742621 742549 759873.6 10024.5 -17324.9 72 72 5225 2006Q2 46 861462 810088 793212.2 12355.9 16876.1 51374 51374 2639258959 2006Q3 47 820093 816480 809582.9 12757.4 6896.8 3613 3613 13056205 2006Q4 48 841083 836990 826887.5 13212.1 10103.0 4093 4093 16748597 2007Q1 49 817704 815354 831112.4 12313.4 -15758.3 2350 2350 5521873 2007Q2 50 899674 856700 845375.6 12508.4 11324.4 42974 42974 1846762086 2007Q3 51 314914 507979.9 -22482.1 -193066.3 2007Q4 52 177262 288540.0 -42177.8 -111278.0 588310 582110 6200 9476 217458222 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 14746 RMSE ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 313427 9614.31 50394.8 S02 32122.3 S03 37107.8 S04 DATE NOBS HDPCR rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 1995Q1 1 332995 3583 329412 327022.8 10012.5 2388.9 3583 12840242 1995Q2 2 366618 -7492 374110 328710.4 9180.0 45399.9 7492 56135094 1995Q3 3 376688 2403 374285 340560.5 9447.0 33724.4 2403 5774925 1995Q4 4 390221 1118 389103 351249.8 9571.2 37853.2 1118 1250033 1996Q1 5 382859 7074 375785 368680.6 10357.2 7104.7 7074 50036961 1996Q2 6 423953 -175 424128 378843.9 10337.8 45283.6 175 30452 1996Q3 7 432152 3329 428823 392880.1 10707.6 35943.4 3329 11079087 1996Q4 8 444324 1038 443286 404741.0 10823.0 38545.1 1038 1077286 1997Q1 9 415593 -2547 418140 412733.7 10539.9 5406.5 2547 6488282 1997Q2 10 455790 -4596 460386 418166.7 10029.2 42219.4 4596 21124913 1997Q3 11 461902 -805 462707 427301.0 9939.7 35406.4 805 648752 1997Q4 12 477809 728 477081 438050.0 10020.7 39030.7 728 530449 1998Q1 13 457925 1601 456324 449849.8 10198.6 6474.0 1601 2563841 1998Q2 14 512225 3585 508640 464031.3 10596.9 44609.2 3585 12849214 1998Q3 15 512408 854 511554 475577.5 10691.8 35976.1 854 730077 1998Q4 16 513925 -4095 518020 481719.3 10236.8 36300.7 4095 16768939 1999Q1 17 481895 -5953 487848 485342.1 9575.4 2505.6 5953 35433997 1999Q2 18 532968 -2361 535329 492294.0 9313.1 43035.1 2361 5574861 1999Q3 19 529465 -2923 532388 498359.8 8988.3 34027.7 2923 8541162 1999Q4 20 536469 -2585 539054 504476.2 8701.1 34577.5 2585 6680867 2000Q1 21 504479 -4033 508512 508695.8 8253.0 -183.4 4033 16268447 2000Q2 22 558691 -465 559156 516431.6 8201.3 42724.8 465 216627 2000Q3 23 557780 -317 558097 524280.7 8166.0 33816.4 317 100498 2000Q4 24 568219 430 567789 532924.6 8213.8 34864.3 430 185007 2001Q1 25 540124 -299 540423 540806.0 8180.6 -382.8 299 89513 2001Q2 26 598842 2567 596275 551838.8 8465.8 44436.1 2567 6589539 2001Q3 27 599262 1851 597411 562361.1 8671.5 35050.2 1851 3425289 2001Q4 28 613986 2912 611074 574268.2 8995.0 36805.7 2912 8480466 2002Q1 29 576665 -2238 578903 580777.1 8746.4 -1874.5 2238 5006587 2002Q2 30 630141 -1375 631516 587996.0 8593.7 43519.7 1375 1889810 2002Q3 31 621004 -3829 624833 592335.3 8168.2 32497.6 3829 14660615 2002Q4 32 636622 -247 636869 600228.7 8140.7 36640.7 247 61210 2003Q1 33 598385 -2920 601305 605125.5 7816.3 -3820.9 2920 8523810 2003Q2 34 660401 1418 658983 614517.6 7973.9 44465.2 1418 2011374 2003Q3 35 650791 -1511 652302 620812.3 7806.0 31490.0 1511 2284091 2003Q4 36 667533 819 666714 629527.9 7897.0 37186.5 819 670157 2004Q1 37 650616 6124 644492 644229.7 8577.4 262.0 6124 37507575 2004Q2 38 716444 6902 709542 660475.8 9344.3 49066.4 6902 47635189 2004Q3 39 712711 4104 708607 674380.5 9800.3 34226.2 4104 16845356 2004Q4 40 737591 5841 731750 690670.3 10449.3 41080.2 5841 34111868 2005Q1 41 697345 -1453 698798 699504.9 10287.8 -706.8 1453 2111689 2005Q2 42 762115 1172 760943 711095.1 10418.1 49847.8 1172 1373828 2005Q3 43 756632 321 756311 721870.2 10453.8 34440.5 321 103252 2005Q4 44 778304 1764 776540 734283.9 10649.8 42256.1 1764 3111491 2006Q1 45 742621 -578 743199 744291.3 10585.5 -1092.2 578 334225 2006Q2 46 861462 20425 841037 777571.8 12855.0 63464.8 20425 417199224 2006Q3 47 820093 -1719 821812 788517.1 12664.0 33294.6 1719 2954061 2006Q4 48 841083 -848 841931 800239.4 12569.9 41691.1 848 718336 2007Q1 49 817704 2155 815549 815204.1 12809.4 344.7 2155 4645223 2007Q2 50 899674 2950 896724 831291.7 13137.2 65431.8 2950 8705443 2007Q3 51 0 2007Q4 52 0 174292 601 173692 785 13090013 3618 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou převzaty z regresního výpočtu L0 T0 0 S01 244622 7864.47 2179.63 S02 -3875.5 S03 2987.62 S04 QUARTER NOBS DEPOSITS rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 1993Q1 1 179342.9 -26332 205675 223229.0 4938.7 -17554.5 26332 693357645 1993Q2 2 179879.6 -18168 198048 207980.6 2920.0 -9932.6 18168 330091039 1993Q3 3 184157.9 -8232 192390 201753.8 2005.3 -9363.6 8232 67769369 1993Q4 4 204782.7 -707 205490 202973.5 1926.8 2516.3 707 499907 1994Q1 5 215145.3 10008 205137 216020.1 3038.7 -10882.6 10008 100156535 1994Q2 6 220120.4 3958 216162 223456.5 3478.5 -7294.0 3958 15665199 1994Q3 7 224857.6 2623 222235 229849.5 3770.0 -7614.9 2623 6880362 1994Q4 8 244498.9 3011 241488 236964.7 4104.5 4523.4 3011 9064571 1995Q1 9 257013.4 9658 247356 251799.9 5177.6 -4444.2 9658 93269795 1995Q2 10 268251.6 6685 261567 264404.7 5920.3 -2837.7 6685 44682925 1995Q3 11 280707.7 6479 274229 277524.1 6640.2 -3295.5 6479 41979294 1995Q4 12 306236.9 6318 299919 291184.0 7342.2 8735.2 6318 39913541 1996Q1 13 320848.6 9636 311213 309232.8 8412.8 1979.8 9636 92852337 1996Q2 14 329595.1 5323 324272 323560.5 9004.3 711.3 5323 28338410 1996Q3 15 336112.3 2463 333649 335302.0 9278.0 -1653.2 2463 6068807 1996Q4 16 365625.2 4432 361194 349504.0 9770.4 11689.6 4432 19638888 1997Q1 17 414840.1 19291 395549 380708.8 11913.9 14840.4 19291 372138707 1997Q2 18 441183 17226 423957 411762.3 13827.8 12195.0 17226 296724132 1997Q3 19 443649.1 7096 436553 433475.0 14616.3 3077.7 7096 50358686 1997Q4 20 473921.5 5091 468831 453747.5 15181.9 15083.4 5091 25914321 1998Q1 21 493387.1 3462 489925 472776.3 15566.6 17148.6 3462 11986753 1998Q2 22 512073.8 4153 507921 492957.3 16028.1 14963.6 4153 17246432 1998Q3 23 527451.8 5540 521912 515140.8 16643.6 6771.0 5540 30690913 1998Q4 24 549745.5 1036 548710 532935.5 16758.7 15774.0 1036 1073237 1999Q1 25 559644.4 -2591 562236 546814.9 16470.8 15420.9 2591 6715481 1999Q2 26 554565.3 -8526 563092 553812.1 15523.4 9279.5 8526 72696681 1999Q3 27 542409.4 -12131 554540 555856.6 14175.5 -1316.3 12131 147160184 1999Q4 28 536933.7 -17594 554528 550483.2 12220.6 4044.6 17594 309552115 2000Q1 29 548175 -10782 558957 550723.9 11022.6 8233.0 10782 116249710 2000Q2 30 543395.4 -9947 553342 550694.3 9917.4 2648.1 9947 98943347 2000Q3 31 547678.9 -4182 551861 555965.1 9452.8 -4104.3 4182 17488766 2000Q4 32 549152.9 -7311 556464 557294.0 8640.4 -829.7 7311 53457271 2001Q1 33 568758.9 -1947 570706 563771.0 8424.0 6935.0 1947 3791063 2001Q2 34 583195.2 3007 580188 575535.9 8758.1 4652.6 3007 9040448 2001Q3 35 589675.9 3415 586261 588088.4 9137.6 -1827.6 3415 11662389 2001Q4 36 595970.9 -153 596124 597055.8 9120.5 -931.8 153 23455 2002Q1 37 596536.5 -5967 602503 599546.4 8457.6 2957.0 5967 35604430 2002Q2 38 594155.3 -6660 600816 600603.5 7717.5 212.3 6660 44361889 2002Q3 39 580665.6 -9298 589964 597989.9 6684.4 -8026.2 9298 86453016 2002Q4 40 567335.8 -13106 580442 590111.6 5228.1 -9669.4 13106 171777596 2003Q1 41 560701.5 -13534 574236 580301.6 3724.3 -6065.9 13534 183176513 2003Q2 42 553728.3 -10984 564712 571822.0 2503.9 -7110.1 10984 120638936 2003Q3 43 548450.7 -6426 554876 567186.3 1790.0 -12310.0 6426 41288567 2003Q4 44 558026.2 -461 558487 568464.0 1738.7 -9976.7 461 212562 2004Q1 45 557442.5 -2410 559852 567525.0 1471.0 -7672.5 2410 5807978 2004Q2 46 563668.2 642 563027 569708.9 1542.3 -6682.3 642 411712 2004Q3 47 569176.8 3685 565492 575345.4 1951.7 -9853.4 3685 13578031 2004Q4 48 587564.8 7288 580277 585394.9 2761.5 -5118.1 7288 53115129 2005Q1 49 584631.3 1493 583138 589815.3 2927.4 -6677.1 1493 2229330 2005Q2 50 589489.7 1235 588255 594114.4 3064.5 -5859.3 1235 1524158 2005Q3 51 582149.8 -1863 584013 595108.7 2857.5 -11095.6 1863 3471723 2005Q4 52 599177.5 2279 596899 600497.9 3110.7 -3599.0 2279 5191970 2006Q1 53 597108 64 597044 603679.2 3117.7 -6634.7 64 4037 2006Q2 54 604796.4 1389 603407 608340.4 3272.1 -4933.2 1389 1929723 2006Q3 55 606284.6 2076 604208 613919.6 3502.8 -9711.4 2076 4311283 2006Q4 56 630641.9 6055 624587 624149.8 4175.5 437.4 6055 36659010 2007Q1 57 636801.4 5440 631362 634369.7 4780.0 -3008.2 5440 29592416 2007Q2 58 0 0 2007Q3 59 0 0 2007Q4 60 0 0 473009 -487 6506 71657592 8465 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 6 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 6.10071 -0.1046 0.31826 S02 0.43911 S03 0.19826 S04 DATE NOBS REVENUE WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q2 1 6.55 6.351 6.218 -0.082 0.133 0.199 0.199 0.040 2000Q3 2 7 6.803 6.354 -0.061 0.449 0.197 0.197 0.039 2000Q4 3 7.38 7.147 6.552 -0.035 0.595 0.233 0.233 0.054 2001Q1 4 6.24 6.411 6.327 -0.054 0.084 -0.171 0.171 0.029 2001Q2 5 6.72 6.607 6.399 -0.041 0.208 0.113 0.113 0.013 2001Q3 6 6.47 6.591 6.223 -0.055 0.368 -0.121 0.121 0.015 2001Q4 7 5.43 5.910 5.635 -0.108 0.275 -0.480 0.480 0.230 2002Q1 8 5.55 5.572 5.503 -0.110 0.069 -0.022 0.022 0.000 2002Q2 9 5.13 5.299 5.204 -0.129 0.095 -0.169 0.169 0.029 2002Q3 10 4.48 4.827 4.690 -0.168 0.137 -0.347 0.347 0.120 2002Q4 11 4.15 4.383 4.263 -0.194 0.120 -0.233 0.233 0.054 2003Q1 12 3.75 3.890 3.914 -0.209 -0.024 -0.140 0.140 0.020 2003Q2 13 3.49 3.602 3.581 -0.222 0.021 -0.112 0.112 0.012 2003Q3 14 4.26 3.985 3.665 -0.191 0.321 0.275 0.275 0.076 2003Q4 15 4.82 4.378 3.964 -0.142 0.414 0.442 0.442 0.195 2004Q1 16 4.5 4.247 4.103 -0.114 0.144 0.253 0.253 0.064 2004Q2 17 5.02 4.656 4.393 -0.074 0.263 0.364 0.364 0.132 2004Q3 18 5.02 4.883 4.472 -0.058 0.412 0.137 0.137 0.019 2004Q4 19 4.04 4.323 4.098 -0.090 0.225 -0.283 0.283 0.080 2005Q1 20 3.62 3.812 3.795 -0.111 0.017 -0.192 0.192 0.037 2005Q2 21 3.31 3.540 3.429 -0.137 0.110 -0.230 0.230 0.053 2005Q3 22 3.26 3.420 3.115 -0.154 0.305 -0.160 0.160 0.026 2005Q4 23 3.61 3.457 3.130 -0.137 0.327 0.153 0.153 0.023 2006Q1 24 3.57 3.368 3.217 -0.115 0.151 0.202 0.202 0.041 2006Q2 25 4.05 3.748 3.437 -0.081 0.311 0.302 0.302 0.091 2006Q3 26 3.9 3.814 3.451 -0.072 0.362 0.086 0.086 0.007 2006Q4 27 3.68 3.690 3.369 -0.073 0.321 -0.010 0.010 0.000 2007Q1 28 3.76 3.647 3.421 -0.060 0.226 0.113 0.113 0.013 2007Q2 29 4.53 4.221 3.704 -0.026 0.517 0.309 0.309 0.095 2007Q3 30 4.54 4.360 3.878 -0.006 0.482 0.180 0.180 0.032 2007Q4 31 1.509 2.195 -0.174 -0.686 -1.509 1.509 2.278 32 0.809 1.122 -0.264 -0.313 -0.809 0.809 0.654 4.728 4.698 0.030 0.207 0.055 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 0.234 RMSE ##### Sheet/List 7 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 6.10071 -0.1046 0.31826 S02 0.43911 S03 0.19826 S04 DATE NOBS REVENUE rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q2 1 6.55 0.199 6.351 6.218 -0.082 0.133 0.199 0.040 2000Q3 2 7 0.197 6.803 6.354 -0.061 0.449 0.197 0.039 2000Q4 3 7.38 0.233 7.147 6.552 -0.035 0.595 0.233 0.054 2001Q1 4 6.24 -0.171 6.411 6.327 -0.054 0.084 0.171 0.029 2001Q2 5 6.72 0.113 6.607 6.399 -0.041 0.208 0.113 0.013 2001Q3 6 6.47 -0.121 6.591 6.223 -0.055 0.368 0.121 0.015 2001Q4 7 5.43 -0.480 5.910 5.635 -0.108 0.275 0.480 0.230 2002Q1 8 5.55 -0.022 5.572 5.503 -0.110 0.069 0.022 0.000 2002Q2 9 5.13 -0.169 5.299 5.204 -0.129 0.095 0.169 0.029 2002Q3 10 4.48 -0.347 4.827 4.690 -0.168 0.137 0.347 0.120 2002Q4 11 4.15 -0.233 4.383 4.263 -0.194 0.120 0.233 0.054 2003Q1 12 3.75 -0.140 3.890 3.914 -0.209 -0.024 0.140 0.020 2003Q2 13 3.49 -0.112 3.602 3.581 -0.222 0.021 0.112 0.012 2003Q3 14 4.26 0.275 3.985 3.665 -0.191 0.321 0.275 0.076 2003Q4 15 4.82 0.442 4.378 3.964 -0.142 0.414 0.442 0.195 2004Q1 16 4.5 0.253 4.247 4.103 -0.114 0.144 0.253 0.064 2004Q2 17 5.02 0.364 4.656 4.393 -0.074 0.263 0.364 0.132 2004Q3 18 5.02 0.137 4.883 4.472 -0.058 0.412 0.137 0.019 2004Q4 19 4.04 -0.283 4.323 4.098 -0.090 0.225 0.283 0.080 2005Q1 20 3.62 -0.192 3.812 3.795 -0.111 0.017 0.192 0.037 2005Q2 21 3.31 -0.230 3.540 3.429 -0.137 0.110 0.230 0.053 2005Q3 22 3.26 -0.160 3.420 3.115 -0.154 0.305 0.160 0.026 2005Q4 23 3.61 0.153 3.457 3.130 -0.137 0.327 0.153 0.023 2006Q1 24 3.57 0.202 3.368 3.217 -0.115 0.151 0.202 0.041 2006Q2 25 4.05 0.302 3.748 3.437 -0.081 0.311 0.302 0.091 2006Q3 26 3.9 0.086 3.814 3.451 -0.072 0.362 0.086 0.007 2006Q4 27 3.68 -0.010 3.690 3.369 -0.073 0.321 0.010 0.000 2007Q1 28 3.76 0.113 3.647 3.421 -0.060 0.226 0.113 0.013 2007Q2 29 4.53 0.309 4.221 3.704 -0.026 0.517 0.309 0.095 2007Q3 30 4.54 0.180 4.360 3.878 -0.006 0.482 0.180 0.032 2007Q4 31 -1.509 1.509 2.195 -0.174 -0.686 1.509 2.278 32 -0.809 0.809 1.122 -0.264 -0.313 0.809 0.654 2.837 -0.029 143.262 0.285 0.152 0.390 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 9 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0.914 S01 25 y1prum nobs 52 25 0 1.062 S02 26 y2prum 0.989 S03 25 y3prum 1.016 S04 26 y4prum quarter NOBS HDPCR WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 1995Q1 1 332995 213126.088 133212.566 13318.789 79913.522 119868.912 119868.912 14368556114 1995Q2 2 366618 287387.190 234565.588 22122.212 52821.602 79230.810 79230.810 6277521262 1995Q3 3 376688 333488.284 304687.484 26922.181 28800.800 43199.716 43199.716 1866215456 1995Q4 4 390221 369121.285 355053.793 29266.593 14067.493 21099.715 21099.715 445197965 1996Q1 5 382859 412153.967 351770.423 26011.597 60383.544 -29294.967 29294.967 858195088 1996Q2 6 423953 426347.224 375121.771 25745.572 51225.453 -2394.224 2394.224 5732308 1996Q3 7 432152 431257.811 401860.886 25844.926 29396.925 894.189 894.189 799573 1996Q4 8 444324 443405.750 428726.091 25946.954 14679.659 918.250 918.250 843183 1997Q1 9 415593 451399.892 414887.609 21968.411 36512.283 -35806.892 35806.892 1282133517 1997Q2 10 455790 467414.930 423939.431 20676.752 43475.499 -11624.930 11624.930 135139002 1997Q3 11 461902 466261.999 439771.739 20192.307 26490.259 -4359.999 4359.999 19009590 1997Q4 12 477809 476669.494 461230.164 20318.919 15439.330 1139.506 1139.506 1298473 1998Q1 13 457925 479574.092 457494.537 17913.465 22079.555 -21649.092 21649.092 468683182 1998Q2 14 512225 514622.060 472744.601 17647.125 41877.459 -2397.060 2397.060 5745898 1998Q3 15 512408 514018.635 488602.132 17468.165 25416.503 -1610.635 1610.635 2594144 1998Q4 16 513925 516655.466 503036.446 17164.780 13619.019 -2730.466 2730.466 7455442 1999Q1 17 481895 503633.881 496046.914 14749.349 7586.967 -21738.881 21738.881 472578956 1999Q2 18 532968 540062.060 502913.974 13961.120 37148.086 -7094.060 7094.060 50325685 1999Q3 19 529465 534082.575 511744.455 13448.056 22338.120 -4617.575 4617.575 21321998 1999Q4 20 536469 537312.311 524255.499 13354.355 13056.812 -843.311 843.311 711173 2000Q1 21 504479 519137.416 521322.725 11725.642 -2185.310 -14658.416 14658.416 214869149 2000Q2 22 558691 562832.963 528446.186 11265.424 34386.777 -4141.963 4141.963 17155859 2000Q3 23 557780 559317.103 538003.718 11094.635 21313.385 -1537.103 1537.103 2362685 2000Q4 24 568219 566036.019 551523.887 11337.188 14512.133 2182.981 2182.981 4765405 2001Q1 25 540124 540900.441 519338.514 17078.509 21561.927 -776.441 776.441 602861 2001Q2 26 598842 591444.893 544636.030 17900.410 46808.863 7397.107 7397.107 54717186 2001Q3 27 599262 595190.739 567060.062 18352.772 28130.677 4071.261 4071.261 16575164 2001Q4 28 613986 608602.507 591394.493 18950.938 17208.015 5383.493 5383.493 28981993 2002Q1 29 576665 596552.249 588248.487 16741.243 8303.761 -19887.249 19887.249 395502667 2002Q2 30 630141 637937.734 596326.693 15874.940 41611.041 -7796.734 7796.734 60789060 2002Q3 31 621004 627962.191 604470.309 15101.807 23491.883 -6958.191 6958.191 48416428 2002Q4 32 636622 636678.927 619508.864 15095.482 17170.063 -56.927 56.927 3241 2003Q1 33 598385 584809.675 577944.769 12845.557 6864.907 13575.325 13575.325 184289436 2003Q2 34 660401 647720.397 604879.885 14254.513 42840.512 12680.603 12680.603 160797687 2003Q3 35 650791 647067.442 623271.685 14668.242 23795.757 3723.558 3723.558 13864885 2003Q4 36 667533 662103.861 643972.303 15271.480 18131.558 5429.139 5429.139 29475545 2004Q1 37 650616 618237.515 598837.169 14934.797 19400.347 32378.485 32378.485 1048366260 2004Q2 38 716444 691861.308 641086.069 17666.208 50775.239 24582.692 24582.692 604308764 2004Q3 39 712711 700958.678 671810.412 18972.021 29148.266 11752.322 11752.322 138117071 2004Q4 40 737591 725964.284 703701.007 20263.879 22263.277 11626.716 11626.716 135180531 2005Q1 41 697345 673787.449 636520.487 21568.443 37266.961 23557.551 23557.551 554958216 2005Q2 42 762115 741516.806 680975.813 23857.132 60540.993 20598.194 20598.194 424285599 2005Q3 43 756632 748111.384 714300.296 24803.867 33811.088 8520.616 8520.616 72600902 2005Q4 44 778304 770386.944 747900.892 25683.540 22486.052 7917.056 7917.056 62679778 2006Q1 45 742621 706724.359 674489.503 19083.998 32234.856 35896.641 35896.641 1288568860 2006Q2 46 861462 816002.115 744084.484 24135.096 71917.631 45459.885 45459.885 2066601149 2006Q3 47 820093 809875.647 779572.195 25270.358 30303.451 10217.353 10217.353 104394312 2006Q4 48 841083 834217.662 812470.706 26033.173 21746.955 6865.338 6865.338 47132870 2007Q1 49 817704 763129.688 719881.907 21335.292 43247.781 54574.312 54574.312 2978355503 2007Q2 50 899674 858052.136 787463.715 25959.944 70588.422 41621.864 41621.864 1732379552 2007Q3 51 301398.989 478535.892 -7528.833 -177136.903 -301398.989 301398.989 90841350789 2007Q4 52 176089.902 275351.612 -27094.378 -99261.710 -176089.902 176089.902 31007653682 588310 566127 -444.24 25688.99 3089041559.54 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 55579.147 RMSE ##### Sheet/List 10 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0.914 S01 553785 y1prum 545659 1250 1.062 S02 613794 y2prum 0.989 S03 585907 y3prum 1.016 S04 600507 y4prum DATE NOBS HDPCR rezidua WINTERS-M Lt Tt St 1995Q1 1 332995 -140827 473822 473822.4 -6058.5 0.8 0.549798 1995Q2 2 366618 -46909 413527 418701.4 -10964.7 1.0 0.634528 1995Q3 3 376688 -9573 386261 396982.0 -12040.2 1.0 0.635888 1995Q4 4 390221 -298 390519 384616.2 -12072.8 1.0 0.715137 1996Q1 5 382859 26551 356308 408099.5 -8517.2 0.9 0.632127 1996Q2 6 423953 10551 413402 411452.7 -7330.1 1.0 0.733761 1996Q3 7 432152 14019 418133 420132.0 -5729.2 1.0 0.729517 1996Q4 8 444324 8482 435842 423685.0 -4801.0 1.0 0.814289 1997Q1 9 415593 -26138 441731 441731.4 -2516.2 0.9 0.686173 1997Q2 10 455790 10804 444986 444985.5 -1939.2 1.0 0.788863 1997Q3 11 461902 10430 451472 451472.1 -1096.6 1.0 0.779738 1997Q4 12 477809 21791 456018 456017.9 -532.4 1.0 0.875655 1998Q1 13 457925 -18847 476772 476771.7 1596.2 0.9 0.756066 1998Q2 14 512225 22855 489370 489370.4 2696.5 1.0 0.886538 1998Q3 15 512408 13505 498903 498902.9 3380.1 1.0 0.864997 1998Q4 16 513925 14192 499733 499733.2 3125.1 1.0 0.941843 1999Q1 17 481895 -28365 510260 510260.0 3865.3 0.9 0.795642 1999Q2 18 532968 16751 516217 516216.8 4074.4 1.0 0.922439 1999Q3 19 529465 8564 520901 520901.0 4135.4 1.0 0.893791 1999Q4 20 536469 13746 522723 522722.6 3904.0 1.0 0.983158 2000Q1 21 504479 -27932 532411 532410.7 4482.4 0.9 0.832930 2000Q2 22 558691 19315 539376 539375.8 4730.7 1.0 0.966960 2000Q3 23 557780 11582 546198 546198.2 4939.9 1.0 0.941590 2000Q4 24 568219 16957 551262 551261.8 4952.2 1.0 1.041345 2001Q1 25 540124 -23831 563955 563955.2 5726.4 0.9 0.891782 2001Q2 26 598842 24822 574020 574019.7 6160.2 1.0 1.036451 2001Q3 27 599262 15619 583643 583642.6 6506.5 1.0 1.011616 2001Q4 28 613986 21583 592403 592402.8 6731.8 1.0 1.125220 2002Q1 29 576665 -26610 603275 603275.2 7145.9 1.0 0.952114 2002Q2 30 630141 20644 609497 609497.1 7053.5 1.0 1.090622 2002Q3 31 621004 7859 613145 613144.8 6712.9 1.0 1.048319 2002Q4 32 636622 18171 618451 618451.2 6572.3 1.0 1.166703 2003Q1 33 598385 -28568 626953 626953.4 6765.2 1.0 0.987975 2003Q2 34 660401 25012 635389 635388.6 6932.2 1.0 1.142995 2003Q3 35 650791 9666 641125 641125.2 6812.7 1.0 1.098602 2003Q4 36 667533 19910 647623 647623.1 6781.2 1.0 1.223352 2004Q1 37 650616 -15452 666068 666067.8 7947.6 1.0 1.074212 2004Q2 38 716444 35660 680784 680784.0 8624.4 1.0 1.239992 2004Q3 39 712711 18688 694023 694023.4 9085.9 1.0 1.203130 2004Q4 40 737591 29614 707977 707976.9 9572.7 1.0 1.351744 2005Q1 41 697345 -23201 720546 720546.0 9872.3 1.0 1.151365 2005Q2 42 762115 31615 730500 730500.4 9880.5 1.0 1.319038 2005Q3 43 756632 15930 740702 740702.4 9912.7 1.0 1.277273 2005Q4 44 778304 27271 751033 751032.6 9954.4 1.0 1.426356 2006Q1 45 742621 -22049 764670 764669.5 10322.7 1.0 1.226119 2006Q2 46 861462 66143 795319 795319.2 12355.4 1.1 1.490983 2006Q3 47 820093 14232 805861 805861.1 12174.0 1.0 1.384401 2006Q4 48 841083 25455 815628 815628.2 11933.3 1.0 1.541408 2007Q1 49 817704 -17081 834785 834785.1 12655.7 1.0 1.350086 2007Q2 50 899674 51444 848230 848230.3 12734.6 1.1 1.557119 2007Q3 51 2007Q4 52 29415504 263753 29151751 ##### Sheet/List 11 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 5416.47 87.141 495.551 S02 512.718 S03 840.884 S04 quarter NOBS E0 - Kč/osoba WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q1 1 "5,783" 5682.420 5615.367 98.317 67.053 100.580 100.580 10116.34 2000Q2 2 "6,285" 6257.724 5743.989 574.399 513.735 27.276 27.276 743.96 2000Q3 3 "6,417" 6566.078 6152.746 615.275 413.332 -149.078 149.078 22224.35 2000Q4 4 "6,771" 7072.646 6432.859 581.758 639.787 -301.646 301.646 90990.07 2001Q1 5 "5,929" 6343.961 6553.549 535.652 -209.588 -414.961 414.961 172192.93 2001Q2 6 "6,506" 6900.897 6650.426 491.774 250.470 -394.897 394.897 155943.41 2001Q3 7 "6,505" 6883.192 6721.987 449.753 161.205 -378.192 378.192 143029.10 2001Q4 8 "7,093" 7351.670 6884.329 421.012 467.340 -258.670 258.670 66910.05 2002Q1 9 "6,156" 6719.852 6929.440 383.422 -209.588 -563.852 563.852 317929.25 2002Q2 10 "6,673" 7207.199 6956.729 347.808 250.470 -534.199 534.199 285368.56 2002Q3 11 "6,810" 7203.445 7042.240 321.579 161.205 -393.445 393.445 154798.92 2002Q4 12 "7,205" 7580.696 7113.355 296.532 467.340 -375.696 375.696 141147.27 2003Q1 13 "6,377" 6870.980 7080.568 263.600 -209.588 -493.980 493.980 244016.28 2003Q2 14 "6,903" 7317.983 7067.513 235.935 250.470 -414.983 414.983 172210.84 2003Q3 15 "7,050" 7298.791 7137.587 219.349 161.205 -248.791 248.791 61897.04 2003Q4 16 "7,440" 7670.565 7203.225 203.978 467.340 -230.565 230.565 53160.43 2004Q1 17 "6,758" 7021.769 7231.357 186.393 -209.588 -263.769 263.769 69574.14 2004Q2 18 "7,132" 7453.732 7203.262 164.944 250.470 -321.732 321.732 103511.50 2004Q3 19 "7,333" 7450.846 7289.642 157.088 161.205 -117.846 117.846 13887.75 2004Q4 20 "7,672" 7817.242 7349.902 147.405 467.340 -145.242 145.242 21095.25 2005Q1 21 "6,881" 7125.031 7334.619 131.136 -209.588 -244.031 244.031 59551.36 2005Q2 22 "7,560" 7653.735 7403.265 124.887 250.470 -93.735 93.735 8786.32 2005Q3 23 "7,677" 7684.414 7523.210 124.393 161.205 -7.414 7.414 54.97 2005Q4 24 "8,041" 8085.366 7618.025 121.435 467.340 -44.366 44.366 1968.32 2006Q1 25 "7,384" 7272.169 7481.757 95.665 -209.588 111.831 111.831 12506.15 2006Q2 26 "8,123" 7945.935 7695.465 107.469 250.470 177.065 177.065 31351.98 2006Q3 27 "8,285" 8092.483 7931.279 120.304 161.205 192.517 192.517 37062.76 2006Q4 28 "8,794" 8628.954 8161.613 131.307 467.340 165.046 165.046 27240.32 2007Q1 29 "8,029" 8061.599 8271.187 129.133 -209.588 -32.599 32.599 1062.72 2007Q2 30 "8,685" 8664.474 8414.004 130.502 250.470 20.526 20.526 421.30 2007Q3 31 "8,783" 8736.626 8575.422 133.593 161.205 46.374 46.374 2150.52 2007Q4 32 "9,204" 9187.413 8720.073 134.699 467.340 16.587 16.587 275.12 2008Q1 33 "8,647" 7976.724 8186.311 67.853 -209.588 670.276 670.276 449270.11 2008Q2 34 "9,417" 8869.581 8619.111 104.348 250.470 547.419 547.419 299667.67 2008Q3 35 "9,521" 9139.198 8977.993 129.801 161.205 381.802 381.802 145773.00 2008Q4 36 "9,830" 9677.081 9209.740 139.996 467.340 152.919 152.919 23384.26 2009Q1 37 "9,057" 8140.724 8350.311 40.053 -209.588 916.276 916.276 839561.98 2009Q2 38 "9,709" 9068.101 8817.631 82.780 250.470 640.899 640.899 410751.48 2009Q3 39 "9,641" 9293.369 9132.165 105.955 161.205 347.631 347.631 120847.25 2009Q4 40 "10,013" 9828.476 9361.136 118.257 467.340 184.524 184.524 34049.04 2010Q1 41 "9,123" 8499.199 8708.787 41.196 -209.588 623.801 623.801 389127.16 2010Q2 42 "9,680" 9272.272 9021.802 68.378 250.470 407.728 407.728 166241.97 2010Q3 43 "9,743" 9448.031 9286.826 88.043 161.205 294.969 294.969 87006.86 2010Q4 44 "10,236" 9999.726 9532.385 103.794 467.340 236.274 236.274 55825.56 2011Q1 45 "9,223" 8876.311 9085.898 48.766 -209.588 346.689 346.689 120193.44 2011Q2 46 "9,822" 9559.881 9309.411 66.241 250.470 262.119 262.119 68706.40 2011Q3 47 "9,902" 9682.914 9521.709 80.847 161.205 219.086 219.086 47998.84 2011Q4 48 "10,371" 10190.338 9722.997 92.891 467.340 180.662 180.662 32638.87 2012Q1 49 "9,388" 9239.289 9448.877 56.190 -209.588 148.711 148.711 22114.89 2012Q2 50 "9,815" 9779.322 9528.852 58.568 250.470 35.678 35.678 1272.91 2012Q3 51 "9,999" 9848.775 9687.570 68.583 161.205 150.225 150.225 22567.65 2012Q4 52 "10,395" 10292.096 9824.756 75.443 467.340 102.904 102.904 10589.18 8188 8163 24.71 271.77 112130.15 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 334.858 RMSE