Derivation of DSGE Model with Financial Frictions by Mohamad Hasni Shaari Using the dissertation of Mohamad Hasni Shaari, written by me. Sometimes I almost copy word by word, cause the original text is concise and hard to simplify. 1 Definitions Lets start with definitions. consumption basket: Ct = (1 − γ) 1 η (CH,t) η−1 η + γ 1 η (CF,t) η−1 η η η−1 γ measures openness, H and F denote home and foreign goods, η is the elasticity of substitution. Both domestic and foreign goods are given by CH,t = 1 0 CH,t(i) ε−1 ε di ε ε−1 so we get demands CH,t(i) = PH,t(i) PH,t −ε CH,t Note that we express both PH and PF in domestic currency. We also get demands CH,t = (1 − γ) PH,t Pt −η Ct, CF,t = γ PF,t Pt −η Ct and price index Pt = (1 − γ)P1−η H,t + γP1−η F,t 1 1−η , pt = (1 − γ)pH,t + γpF,t. Now about inflation: πt = (1 − γ)πH,t + γπF,t 1 Define terms of trade as TOTt = PF,t PH,t so that pt = (1 − γ)pH,t + γpF,t = pH,t + γtott, πt = πH,t + γ∆tott. We have St the nominal exchange rate, increase = depreciation, and RERt = St P∗ t Pt . We assume incomplete exchange rate pass-through, so that LOPGt = StP∗ t PF,t . For estimation, LOPG is assumed to follow AR(1) process (strange...). But anyway, we can express the log of RER as rert = st+p∗ t −pt = st+p∗ t −pH,t−γtott = st+p∗ t −pF,t+pF,t−pH,t−γtott = lopgt+(1−γ)tott While law of one price does not hold for imports, it holds for exports, so that P∗ H,t = PH,t/St. 2 Households Households maximize discounted future utility given by U(Ct, Lt) = log(Ct − hCt−1) − L1+Ψ H,t 1 + Ψ where Ct is consumption, LH,t is labor supply by household and h is the parameter of external habit. Ψ is inverse elasticity of labor supply. Budge constraint WH,tLH,t+Rt−1Dt−1+R∗ t−1ΨB (Zt−1, AUIP t−1 )StBt−1+Πt+Tt = PtCt+Dt+StBt means that HH gets income from labor LH,t and nominal wage WH,t. HH gets profits from retailer Πt and left-over equity from entrepreneurs who die and leave economy Tt. HH can buy two assets: domestic Dt from domestic intermediary and foreign (denominated in foreign currency) which gives riskadjusted return R∗ t ΨB (Zt, AUIP t ). Risk-adjustment is there to stationarise the model, so we specify ΨB (Zt, AUIP t ) = exp −ψB (Zt + AUIP t ) . Here Zt = StBt YtPt is the net foreign asset position of the domestic economy and AUIP t is a shock assumed to follow AR(1) process. HH chooses quadruple {Ct, LH,t, Dt, Bt} and we get following FOCs 2 • wrt to LH,t: WH,t = − LΨ H,t λt • wrt to Ct: 1 Ct − hCt−1 = −λtPt • wrt to Bt: λtSt = βλt+1R∗ t ΨB (Zt, AUIP t )St+1 • wrt to Dt: λt = βλt+1Rt Now combine first two to get labor supply: WH,t Pt = WH,t = Lψ H,t(Ct − hCt−1). Now we combine the second and fourth (HH decides if to consume or to invest in domestic bonds) βRt = Ct+1 − hCt Ct − hCt−1 Pt+1 Pt . Similarly, HH decides if to consume or invest in foreign bonds: R∗ t ΨB (Zt, AUIP t ) = 1 β St St+1 (Ct − hCt−1) (Ct+1 − hCt) Pt Pt+1 The latter two equations define optimal choice between foreign and domestic bonds and therefore imply UIP. Combine to get: R∗ t ΨB (Zt, AUIP t ) = St St+1 Rt R∗ t exp −ψB (Zt + AUIP t ) = Rt RERtPt P∗ t P∗ t+1 Pt+1RERt+1 When log linearized, these equations become: lH,t = 1 Ψ wH,t − 1 1 − h (ct − hct−1) (1 − h)(rt − Etπt+1) = (ct+1 − hct) − (ct − hct−1) rert+1 − rert = (rt − Etπt+1) − (rt ∗ −Etπ∗ t+1) + ψB zt + AUIP t 3 3 Entrepreneurs We add capital and entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs produce intermediate goods and capital goods. They also own all capital. We want them to face a financing constraint, so we need to prevent them from living infinitely and accumulating enough new worth so that the constraint wouldn’t matter. We let a fraction of (1 − ξ) of entrepreneurs die every period. Entrepreneurs produce intermediate (wholesale) goods YH,t and seel them for price PW H,t. They use both HH and own labor Lt = LΩ H,tL1−Ω E,t , but we normalize LE,t to one for simplicity. HH is paid WH,t for labor unit, entrepreneur is paid WE,t. The gross nominal return on capital is RG,t. They employ production function YH,t = AY t Kα t L (1−α)Ω H,t , where AY t is productivity common for all firms assumed to follow AR(1) process. Log-linearize to get yH,t = αkt + (Ω(1 − α))lH,t + AY t . Entrepreneurs every period minimize costs RG,tKt + LH,tWH,t + WE,t s.t. the production function. We get following FOCs: RG,t = λα YH,t Kt WH,t = λΩ(1 − α) YH,t LH,t WE,t = λ(1 − Ω)(1 − α) YH,t LE,t Realize that λ is the nominal marginal cost of producing one more unit of output, which is equal to PW H,t (no profit), and that LE,t is 1, and we get the 4 demand schedules: RG,t = PW H,tα YH,t Kt WH,t = PW H,tΩ(1 − α) YH,t LH,t WE,t = PW H,t(1 − Ω)(1 − α)YH,t We will manipulate a bit to show how the LOPG and RER influence this. Define MCH,t = PW H,t PH,t to be the real marginal costs expressed in terms of the domestic goods price level. Next, divide all by Pt to get real variables. We get (also log-lin) RG,t Pt = RG,t = α YH,t Kt MCH,t PH,t Pt rG,t = yH,t + mcH,t − kt − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) WH,t Pt = WH,t = Ω(1 − α) YH,t LH,t MCH,t PH,t Pt wH,t = yH,t + mcH,t − lH,t − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) WE,t Pt = WE,t = (1 − Ω)(1 − α)YH,tMCH,t PH,t Pt wE,t = yH,t + mcH,t − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) where we use the fact that pH,t − pt = γtott rert = (1 − γ)tott + lopgt tott = rert − lopgt 1 − γ To get the expression for the real marginal costs for domestic prduced goods, just plug equations for lH,t and kt into prioduction function to get: mcH,t = (1 − α)(1 + Ω) α + (1 − α)Ω yH,t + 1 α + (1 − α)Ω [αrG,t + (1 − α)wH,t] + 1 α + (1 − α)Ω γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) − 1 α + (1 − α)Ω AY t 5 Interestingly, depreciation of RER increases MC, while larger LOPG decreases it. 4 Investment Entrepreneurs produce capital and sell it for nominal price Qt. Capital is produced using old capital and investment INVt, which is produced exactly as consumption goods INVt = (1 − γ) 1 η (CH,t) η−1 η + γ 1 η (CF,t) η−1 η η η−1 so that demand functions of the entrepreneurs are exactly the same as HH’s. Also, price of the investment is Pt and investment price index is equal to CPI. Capital accumulates according to Kt+1 = Φ INVt Kt Kt + (1 − δ)Kt. Φ is increasing concave, stands for adjustment costs: Φ INVt Kt = INVt Kt − ψI 2 INVt Kt − δ 2 . In steady state, we have Φ(SS) = δ, Φ (SS) = 1. The first condition means that in steady state capital stock doesn’t change, the second one ensures that the real price of capital is equal to one is SS. In log-lin: ¯K(1 + kt+1) = ¯K + Φ ¯K ¯I ¯K invt + (1 − δ) ¯Kkt + Φ ¯Kkt − Φ ¯K ¯I ¯K2 ¯Kkt ¯Kkt+1 = ¯Kδinvt + (1 − δ) ¯Kkt + δ ¯Kkt − δ ¯Kkt kt+1 = δinvt + (1 − δ)kt When deciding how much capital to produce, the entrepreneur solves max INVt QtΦ INVt Kt Kt − PtINVt 6 which gives FOC: QtΦ INVt Kt = Pt Qt = 1 Φ INVt Kt Lets log-linearize, cause I don’t find it straightforward at all: Q(1 + qt) = 1 Φ INV K + (−1) 1 Φ INV K 2 Φ INV K INV K invt + +(−1) 1 Φ INV K 2 Φ INV K (−1) INV K2 Kkt Qqt = 1 Φ INV K 2 Φ INV K INV K2 Kkt + (−1) 1 Φ INV K 2 Φ INV K INV K invt : Q = 1 Φ INV K qt = −Φ INV K Φ INV K INV K (invt − kt) Now RK,t = {RG,t+(1−δ)Qt}Kt Qt−1Kt is the real gross return on capital received by the entrepreneurs. In log-lin: RK(1 + rK,t) = [RG + (1 − δ)Q] K QK + RGK QK rG,t + (1 − δ) QK QK qt − [RG + (1 − δ)Q] K (QK)2 QKq−1 rK,t + qt−1 = RG QRK rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt = RG RG + (1 − δ)Q rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt = = (1 − (1 − δ)Q RG + (1 − δ)Q )rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt = 1 − 1 − δ RK rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt rK,t + qt−1 = 1 − 1 − δ RK rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt So two things determine the return on investment by entrepreneurs. First, capital is used by intermediate (wholesale firms), which pay rental rate rG,t. Second, since the entrepreneurs own the capital and rent it, any change in the price of capital influences the return on investment. It also influences the entrepreneur’s net worth. 7 4.1 Frictions and Net Worth Entrepreneurs (E) finance their production operations and owning of capital using their net worth Nt+1 and financing from intermediary Ft+1. So their budget constraint is QtKt+1 = Ft+1 + Nt+1. When borrowing from financial intermediary, E pays not only the gross real interest rate Rt Pt Pt+1 , but also a premium dependent on the leverage ratio of the E. BGG explain this using principal-agent problem. The premium is given by Premium = Nt+1 QtKt+1 −χ , where χ measures the elasticity of the premium. BGG provide detailed explanation for why the premium should be in such a relation with leverage ratio, but I find it natural. E are risk-neutral and choose Kt+1 to maximize profit. Chosen Kt+1 implies necessary Ft+1. On the optimal margin, expected marginal return on investment is equal to marginal financing cost: Et(RK,t+1) = Et Nt+1 QtKt+1 −χ Rt Pt Pt+1 which again in log-lin is EtrK,t+1 = rt − πt+1 − χ(nt+1 − qt − kt+1). Now we need to determine the evolution of E’s net worth. The new net worth consists of entrepreneurial equity held by the fraction ξ of Es that survive this period and E labor income WE,t: Nt+1 = ξVt + WE,t. The remaining Es who leave the economy transfer their wealth to HHs Tt = (1−ξ)Vt. We assume that labor income of Es is small, so that (1−Ω) = 0.01. This mechanism only ensures that net worth is pinned down in steady state. Equity is given by Vt = RK,tQt−1Kt − Nt Qt−1Kt −χ Rt−1 Pt−1 Pt Ft. 8 So the equity is the return minus the repayment of loans. Note that an increase in interest rate lowers E’s net worth, which increases the premium and further lowers the net worth. Before log-linearizing, realize that RK = N QK −χ R P P Q = 1 Φ INV K = 1 Nt+1 = ξVt + WE,t V vt = Nnt+1 − WEwE,t ξ Ft = Qt−1Kt − Nt ft = K(qt−1 + kt) − Nnt F and log-linearize (I wont bother with writing the first term of Taylor expansion, I mean the one equal to the equation in the steady state, since it immediately cancels out on both sides): Nnt+1 − WEwE,t ξ = RKQK(rK,t + qt−1 + kt) + χ N QK −χ−1 N QK R(QK − N)nt −χ N QK −χ−1 N (QK)2 QKR(QK − N) − N QK −χ RQK (qt−1 + kt) − N QK −χ R(QK − N)(rt − πt) + N QK −χ RNnt Now we make use of RK = N QK −χ R and Q = 1 to get Nnt+1 = WEwE,t + ξRKK(rK,t + qt−1 + kt) + ξχRK(K − N)nt − −ξ [χRK(K − N) + RKK] (qt−1 + kt) − ξRK(K − N)(rt−1 − πt) + ξRKNnt Nnt+1 = ξRK [K(rK,t + qt−1 + kt) + χ(K − N)nt − χ(K − N)(qt−1 + kt) − K(qt−1 + kt)] + +ξRK [−(K − N)(rt−1 − πt) + Nnt] + WEwE,t 9 Denote Γ5 = K N − 1 to get: K − N N = Γ5 K N = Γ5 + 1 WE N = WE K K N = (Γ5 + 1) WE K Now collect terms and divide by N: nt+1 = ξRK [(Γ5 + 1)rK,t − χΓ5(qt−1 + kt) + (χΓ5 + 1)nt − Γ5(rt−1 − πt)] + (Γ5 + 1) WE K wE,t 5 Retailers We assume Calvo pricing on final goods market. There are importers and domestic firms, that sell on the domestic market and export to the foreign economy. Retailers buy the consumption good for price PW H,t. Each period, fraction (1−θH) resets its price to new optimal price PNEW H,t . The rest update their price according to PH,t(z) = PH,t−1(z)(πt−1)κ , where κ measures the degree of inflation indexation. This implies aggregate price level PH,t = (1 − θH) PNEW H,t 1−ε + θH (PH,t−1πt−1)1−ε 1 1−ε . Let YH,t(z) be the composite good sold by a retailer z in period t. The aggregate good sold is given by YH,t = 1 0 YH,t(z) ε−1 ε dz ε ε−1 Expected future demands by households are given by YH,t+k(z) = PNEW H,t PH,t+k (πt−1,t+k)κ YH,t+k 10 The representative firm maximizes max PNEW H,t Et ∞ k=0 βk θk H YH,t+k(z) PNEW H,t (πt−1,t+k)κ − PH,t+k PW H,t+k PH,t+k where note that PW H,t+k PH,t+k = MCH,t+k. FOC is ∞ k=0 (βθH)k EtYH,t+k PNEW H,t (πt−1,t+k)κ − ε ε − 1 PH,t+kMCH,t+k = 0 It is good to use this FOC to write the optimal price as PNEW H,t = µ (βθH)k EtYH,t+k [PH,t+kMCt+k] (βθH)kEtYH,t+k [(πt+k−1)κ] . where µ = ε ε−1 is the gross desired markup. Log-linearize the equation above to get pNEW H,t = (1 − βθH)(pH,t + mcH,t) + (βθH) Et{pNEW H,t+1 − κπt−1} where mcH,t+k = pW H,t+k − pH,t+k. Log-linearize the price index equation to get πH,t = (1 − θH) pNEW H,t − pH,t−1 + θHκπt−1 Substitute and rearrange to get πH,t = 1 1 + βκ βEt{πH,t+1} + κπt−1 + ΛH mcH,t) , ΛH = (1 − βθH)(1 − θH) θH . 6 Importers Importers buy for price PW F,t = StP∗ t (in local currency). They sell at price PF,t. We assume PF,t = StP∗ t . Again, importers price a la Calvo, so the price index for imported goods is PF,t = (1 − θF )(PNEW F,t )1−ε + θF (PF,t−1(πt−1)κ )1−ε 1 1−ε . 11 Again importers solve the problem max PNEW F,t ∞ k=0 (βθF )k Et YF,t+k(z) PNEW F,t (πκ t+k−1) − PF,t+k PW F,t PF,t+k which results in PNEW F,t = µ ∞ k=0(βθF )k Et(YF,t+k[PF,t+kMCF,t+k]) ∞ k=0(βθF )kEt(YF,t+k(πt+k−1)κ which in log-lin becomes pNEW F,t = (1 − βθF )[pF,t − mcF,t] + (βθF ) Et{pNEW F,t+1 } − κπt−1 where mcF,t = pW F,t − pF,t. By definition pW F,t = st + p∗ t , so mcF,t = st + p∗ t − pF,t = lopgt. Log-linearize the price index for imported goods and combine to get πF,t = 1 1 + βκ βEt{πF,t+1} + κπt−1 + ΛF lopgt , ΛF = (1 − βθF )(1 − θF ) θF Finally, realize that overall CPI inflation πt = (1 − γ)πH,t + γπF,t whi after plugging gives πt = 1 1 + βκ β{πt+1} + κπt−1 + (1 − γ)ΛH mcH,t + γΛF lopgt 7 Monetary policy Interest rate is given by rt = (1 − ρ) [βππt+1 + Θyyt+1] + ρrt−1 + εMP t . 12 8 Market clearing and equilibrium Foreing agents are assumed to have identical preferences to the domestic agents, so the foreign demand for domestic exports is given by C∗ H,t = γ P∗ H,t P∗ t −η Y ∗ t We assume that law of one price holds for exports, so P∗ H,t = PH,t St , we know that RERt = St P∗ t Pt and we have C∗ H,t = γ PH,t Pt −η 1 RERt −η Y ∗ t . In every period, final good YH,t is either consumed, exported or invested, so we get aggregate resource constraint YH,t = PH,t Pt −η (1 − γ)(Ct + INVt) + γ 1 RERt −η Y ∗ t . In log-lin yH,t = C YH (1 − γ)ct + INV YH (1 − γ)invt + γy∗ t + ηγ 2 − γ 1 − γ rert − ηγ 1 − γ lopgt. Financial intermediary lends to entrepreneurs. To finance itself, it collects funds from households at cost Rt. We assume zero-profit banking and borrowing only from domestic HHs. So in equilibrium Ft = Dt. 9 Net foreign assets Eveolution of net foreign assets is Zt = R∗ t−1ΨB (Zt−1, AUIP t−1 )Zt−1 + (YH,t − Ct − INVt) where Zt = StBt YtPt is the economy share of net foreign assets on NGDP. The term (YH,t − Ct − INVt) stands for current account balance. In log-lin, we get zt = 1 β zt−1 + (yH,t − ct − invt) − γ 1 − γ (rert − γlopgt) 13 10 Log-linearized equations The model consists of following set of equations: lH,t = 1 Ψ wH,t − 1 1 − h (ct − hct−1) (1) (1 − h)(rt − Etπt+1) = (ct+1 − hct) − (ct − hct−1) (2) rert+1 − rert = (rt − Etπt+1) − (rt ∗ −Etπ∗ t+1) + ψB zt + AUIP t (3) rG,t = yH,t + mcH,t − kt − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) (4) wH,t = yH,t + mcH,t − lH,t − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) (5) wE,t = yH,t + mcH,t − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) (6) yH,t = αkt + (Ω(1 − α))lH,t + AY t (7) kt+1 = δinvt + (1 − δ)kt (8) qt = −Φ INV K Φ INV K INV K (invt − kt) (9) rK,t + qt−1 = 1 − 1 − δ RK rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt (10) EtrK,t+1 = rt − πt+1 − χ(nt+1 − qt − kt+1) (11) nt+1 = ξRK [(Γ5 + 1)rK,t − χΓ5(qt−1 + kt)] + (12) +ξRK [(χΓ5 + 1)nt − Γ5(rt−1 − πt)] + (Γ5 + 1) WE K wE,t (13) πt = 1 1 + βκ β{πt+1} + κπt−1 + (1 − γ)ΛH mcH,t + γΛF lopgt (14) rt = (1 − ρ) [βππt+1 + Θyyt+1] + ρrt−1 + εMP t (15) yH,t = C YH (1 − γ)ct + INV YH (1 − γ)invt + γy∗ t + ηγ 2 − γ 1 − γ rert − ηγ 1 − γ lopgt(16) zt = 1 β zt−1 + (yH,t − ct − invt) − γ 1 − γ (rert − γlopgt) (17) lopgt = ρlopg ∗ lopgt−1 + εlopg t (18) 14 11 Foreign economy We can either introduce foreign economy as VAR(1) process or try to do it structurally. The equations describing the foreign block are l∗ H,t = 1 Ψ w∗ H,t − 1 1 − h (c∗ t − hc∗ t−1) (19) (1 − h)(r∗ t − Etπ∗ t+1) = (c∗ t+1 − hc∗ t ) − (c∗ t − hc∗ t−1) (20) r∗ G,t = y∗ t + mc∗ t − k∗ t (21) w∗ H,t = y∗ t + mc∗ t − l∗ H,t (22) w∗ E,t = y∗ t + mc∗ t (23) y∗ H,t = αk∗ t + (Ω(1 − α))l∗ H,t + AY ∗ t (24) k∗ t+1 = δinv∗ t + (1 − δ)k∗ t (25) q∗ t = −Φ INV ∗ K∗ Φ INV ∗ K∗ INV ∗ K∗ (inv∗ t − k∗ t ) (26) r∗ K,t + q∗ t−1 = 1 − 1 − δ R∗ K r∗ G,t + 1 − δ R∗ K q∗ t (27) Etr∗ K,t+1 = r∗ t − π∗ t+1 − χ(n∗ t+1 − q∗ t − k∗ t+1) (28) n∗ t+1 = ξR∗ K (Γ5 + 1)r∗ K,t − χΓ5(q∗ t−1 + k∗ t ) + (29) +ξR∗ K (χΓ5 + 1)n∗ t − Γ5(r∗ t−1 − π∗ t ) + (Γ5 + 1) W∗ E K∗ w∗ E,t(30) π∗ t = 1 1 + βκ β{π∗ t+1} + κπ∗ t−1 + Λ∗ mc∗ t (31) r∗ t = (1 − ρ) βπ∗ π∗ t+1 + Θyy∗ t+1 + ρr∗ t−1 + εMP∗ t (32) y∗ t = C∗ Y ∗ c∗ t + INV ∗ Y ∗ inv∗ t (33) 12 Model without financial frictions Lets now remove financial frictions. We will assume that entrepreneurs have enough new worth to be able to cover the cost of their operations Nt = Qt−1Kt. Therefore, E don’t need to borrow from banks. We can also let them live indefinitely and we can remove the entreprenurial labor from the model. Therefore: nt, wE,t disappear. 15 lH,t = 1 Ψ wH,t − 1 1 − h (ct − hct−1) (34) (1 − h)(rt − Etπt+1) = (ct+1 − hct) − (ct − hct−1) (35) rert+1 − rert = (rt − Etπt+1) − (rt ∗ −Etπ∗ t+1) + ψB zt + AUIP t (36) rG,t = yH,t + mcH,t − kt − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) (37) wH,t = yH,t + mcH,t − lH,t − γ 1 − γ (rert − lopgt) (38) yH,t = αkt + (Ω(1 − α))lH,t + AY t (39) kt+1 = δinvt + (1 − δ)kt (40) qt = −Φ INV K Φ INV K INV K (invt − kt) (41) rK,t + qt−1 = 1 − 1 − δ RK rG,t + 1 − δ RK qt (42) EtrK,t+1 = rt − πt+1 (43) rt = (1 − ρ) [βππt+1 + Θyyt+1] + ρrt−1 + εMP t (44) yH,t = C YH (1 − γ)ct + INV YH (1 − γ)invt + γy∗ t + ηγ 2 − γ 1 − γ rert − ηγ 1 − γ lopgt(45) zt = 1 β zt−1 + (yH,t − ct − invt) − γ 1 − γ (rert − γlopgt) (46) lopgt = ρlopg ∗ lopgt−1 + εlopg t (47) 16