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Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine
Working Paper
When does FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence
from 17 emerging market economies
IZA Discussion Papers, No. 3079
Provided in Cooperation with:
IZA – Institute of Labor Economics
Suggested Citation: Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; Svejnar, Jan; Terrell, Katherine (2007) : When does
FDI have positive spillovers? Evidence from 17 emerging market economies, IZA Discussion
Papers, No. 3079, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA), Bonn
This Version is available at:
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IZA DP No. 3079
When Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers?
Evidence from 17 Emerging Market Economies
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
Jan Svejnar
Katherine Terrell
DISCUSSIONPAPERSERIES
Forschungsinstitut
zur Zukunft der Arbeit
Institute for the Study
of Labor
September 2007
When Does FDI Have Positive
Spillovers? Evidence from 17
Emerging Market Economies
Yuriy Gorodnichenko
University of California, Berkeley
Jan Svejnar
University of Michigan
and IZA
Katherine Terrell
University of Michigan
and IZA
Discussion Paper No. 3079
September 2007
IZA
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IZA Discussion Paper No. 3079
September 2007
ABSTRACT
When Does FDI Have Positive Spillovers?
Evidence from 17 Emerging Market Economies*
We use firm-level data and national input-output tables from 17 countries over the 2002-2005
period to test new and existing hypotheses about the impact of foreign direct investment
(FDI) on the efficiency of domestic firms in the host country (i.e., spillovers). Providing
evidence from a larger sample of countries and greater variety of firms than existing studies,
with separate estimates by firm size, age, and sector, we show: a) backward spillovers
(stemming from supplying a foreign firm in the host country or exporting to a foreign firm) are
consistently positive; b) horizontal spillovers are mostly insignificant but positive for older
firms and firms in the service sector; d) forward spillovers (from purchasing from foreign firms
or importing) are also positive only for old and service sector firms. We find no support for the
hypothesis that spillovers are greater for FDI with more advanced technology. While
efficiency of domestic firms’ is affected by the business environment, the strength of FDI
spillovers is not, either when measured by the degree of corruption, bureaucratic red tape or
by differences across regions that vary in terms of development. Testing whether spillovers
vary with the firm’s “absorptive capacity” we find: i) distance from the efficiency frontier tends
to dampen horizontal spillovers in manufacturing and backward spillovers among old firms; ii)
whereas firms with a larger share of university educated workforce are more productive, they
do not enjoy greater FDI spillovers than firms with less educated workers. FDI spillovers
hence vary by sectors and types of firms.
JEL Classification: F23, M16, O16, P23
Keywords: FDI, spillovers, transition economies, efficiency
Corresponding author:
Katherine Terrell
University of Michigan Business School
701 Tappan Street
Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1234
USA
E-mail: terrell@bus.umich.edu
*
We would like to thank the following individuals for their useful comments on earlier drafts of the
paper: Anne Harrison, Beata Javorcik, Josef Konings, Kamal Saggi, Walter Steingress, and seminar
participants of the World Bank Workshop on Productivity, ACES sessions at the ASSA Meetings;
Annual Conference of the Austrian National Bank, International Economics Seminar at the University
of Michigan, International Business Seminar at George Washington University; Conference of the
Higher Economics School in Moscow, and FDI Conference at Ghent University. Tomislav Ladika
provided excellent research assistance. We are grateful to the European Bank for Reconstruction and
Development for making this research possible through funding and data availability.
1. Introduction
It is widely accepted that firms in many developing countries were weakened by
the import-substitution strategies of the 1960s and 1970s. The question that has arisen
since then is whether domestic firms have become stronger with the opening up of most
economies to foreign trade and investment. More specifically, has the efficiency of
domestic firms in emerging market economies improved with the growing presence of
foreign direct investment (FDI) within their borders and the opening of these economies
to trade? While there is substantial evidence that foreign-owned firms are more efficient
than domestic firms,1
the evidence on FDI spillovers remains relatively mixed.
In this paper we use the rich 2002 and 2005 Business Environment and Enterprise
Performance Surveys (BEEPS) of firms in 17 emerging market (transition) economies,
together with industry-level input-output data, to advance in a number of dimensions our
knowledge of when, where and under what conditions FDI has efficiency spillovers on
domestic firms. First, while most of the literature has focused on horizontal spillovers, we
examine both vertical and horizontal spillovers. In this context, we advance the literature
by being able to analyze forward and backward linkages of multinational enterprises
(MNEs) with a direct firm-specific variable and compare this with the results using the
usual indirect industry-specific variable based on input-output tables.2
We also include in
the analysis of vertical spillovers the concept of selling to or buying from firms outside of
the country, i.e., importing and exporting, since vertical spillovers need not be
constrained to linkages with foreign firms within the host country alone.
Second, we use a broader measure of efficiency than many other studies by
analyzing how efficiently firms generate sales revenue, taking into account inputs of
capital, labor and materials. This is equivalent to total factor productivity but broader in
1
See e.g., the seminal work of Caves (1974) and the more recent work of Djankov and Hoekman (2000),
Haskell, Pereira and Slaughter (2007) and Sabirianova, Svejnar and Terrell (2005b).
2
In this paper the term MNEs will refer to foreign owned multinationals, although we recognize that
domestically owned firms can also be multinational in their production and sourcing.
1
that it also captures improvements in pricing, marketing and other aspects of revenue
generation that are crucial for success of firms in the emerging market economies that are
trying to catch up with their competitors from advanced countries.3
Third, we test a number of existing and several new hypotheses. For example, to
our the best of our knowledge, we are the first to shed light on the impact of a country’s
institutions (corruption and bureaucratic red tape) and level of development on the
strength of vertical and horizontal spillovers. We also use our special data set to address
older questions in the literature such as whether spillovers depend on a firm’s “absorptive
capacity.”
Fourth, we are able to provide much larger comparative evidence on more
heterogeneous firms than has been possible to date.4
Our analysis covers firms in both
the service and manufacturing sectors, while existing studies focus on manufacturing.
This is important because most of the recent FDI is in services. We are also able to
estimate the effects separately for small firms, while much of the existing evidence is for
medium and large firms. Being able to cover smaller firms is important because smaller
firms tend to be the new entrepreneurs and engines of growth in many emerging market
economies. Finally, we also test for differences in spillovers among new and old firms –
in our case firms that existed prior to 1990 (before the fall of the communist regime) and
those that started afterwards.
We find positive backward spillovers for the domestically owned firms (i.e.,
selling to foreign-owned firms, whether in the country or outside) raises a domestic
firm’s efficiency. On the other hand, our estimates suggest that buying inputs from or
competing with foreign firms confers positive spillovers only in older firms and firms in
the service sector. We test for the impact of the institutional/business environment on
3
A number of studies in fact use this measure without noting the fact that it is broader than the usual
output- or value added-based measure of productivity.
4
Our analysis includes firm level data from Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary,
Georgia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Ukraine.
2
spillovers and do not find a strong effect. Similarly, our tests for the effect of the
technological quality of FDI, proxied by whether FDI originates in advanced or
developing countries, indicate that there is no systematic difference in efficiency
spillovers from “higher” v. “lower” quality FDI. Finally, there is limited statistical
support for the argument that the absorptive capacity of firms affects the degree of
spillovers in that distance of a domestic firm from the efficiency frontier dampens
horizontal spillovers in manufacturing and backward spillovers among old firms.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2 we present a brief overview of the
literature, while in Section 3 we describe our data and analytical methodology. We
present our baseline findings on spillovers in Section 4, our analysis of the institutions
and quality of FDI in Section 5, and the results related to the absorptive capacity in
Section 6. We summarize and interpret our findings in the concluding Section 7.
2. Efficiency Spillovers from FDI
Foreign firms may have efficiency and other “spillover” effects on local
competitors (horizontal spillovers) as well as on upstream and downstream domestic
firms (vertical spillovers). The spillover (broadly defined as a transfer of managerial
practices, production methods, marketing techniques or any other knowledge embodied
in a product or service) may occur through a number of channels. Local firms may for
instance learn to imitate a new process or improve the quality of their products or
services through observation, or find out about better processes or marketing methods
through interaction with foreign managers in business chambers and from former
employees of MNEs. Local firms may also benefit from the entry of new professional
services or suppliers as a result of the MNE entry. Foreign firms may act as catalysts for
domestic suppliers to improve quality or time efficiency by demanding higher standards.
On the other hand, foreign firms may have a negative effect on domestic firms’ output
and efficiency if they “steal” their market or best human capital. If domestic firms cut
back production in the face of foreign competition, they may experience a higher average
3
cost as fixed costs are spread over a smaller scale of production (Aitken and Harrison,
1999). Similarly, if the best employees leave for foreign firms, efficiency declines.
Most studies examine “horizontal spillovers” and do so within a production
function framework.5
The effect of foreign presence on the productivity of domestic
firms in a given industry is captured by the coefficient on the share of foreign firms’
output or employment in that industry. The evidence from this research is mixed. Most
studies of developing countries suggest that the horizontal spillover effect is nil or
negative (e.g., studies of Morocco by Haddad and Harrison, 1993; Venezuela by Aitken
and Harrison, 1999; Bulgaria and Romania by Konings, 2000; Russia by Yudaeva et al.,
2003; the Czech Republic by Kosova, 2004; and China by Abraham, Konings and
Slootmaekers, 2006).6
On the other hand, several studies find positive horizontal
spillovers in the more developed economies such as the UK (e.g., Haskel et al., 2007) and
the US (e.g., Keller and Yeaple, 2003). Hence, this puzzle is of some interest in the
literature and as we discuss below.
While studies of horizontal spillovers are numerous, until recently there were few
empirical studies on vertical spillovers. This is surprising given the early analysis by Lall
(1980) of the positive backward linkage effects of foreign firms on the Indian trucking
industry.7
Moreover, vertical spillovers are more likely to be positive than horizontal
spillovers since MNEs have an incentive to improve the productivity of their suppliers
rather than that of their competitors.8
The empirical papers that have appeared recently
5
The literature on FDI spillovers has been burgeoning in recent years. We do not attempt to summarize the
large and rapidly growing literature, but simply highlight the work that has motivated the analysis in this
paper. We refer the interested reader to a survey by Gorg and Greenaway (2003).
6
In the Chinese case, Abraham, Konings and Slootmaekers (2006) find positive horizontal spillovers for
certain types of firms.
7
On the other hand, there are numerous case studies which provide specific examples of how MNEs
provide training and assistance to their suppliers. See for example, Moran (2001).
8
Blalock and Gertler (2005) point out that MNEs may establish a relationship with multiple suppliers to
reduce dependency on a single supplier and that this will then benefit all firms that purchase these vendors’
output. Consistent with this view, Lin and Saggi (2005) show theoretically how exclusivity in the
contractual relationship between a multinational and its local supplier reduces the competition among local
suppliers and can lower backward linkages and local welfare relative to autarky.
4
do indeed find evidence that is consistent with the view of technology transfer through
backward linkages in the manufacturing sectors of for example, Hungary (Schoors and
van der Tol, 2001), Indonesia (Blalock and Gertler, 2005), Lithuania (Javorcik, 2004),
Czech Republic (Stancik, 2007) and the United Kingdom (Girma, Gorg and Pisu, 2007).
However, these studies rely only on a variable that is constructed from input-output tables
at the industry level, rather than a direct firm-specific measure. Recently, in a parallel
study to ours Vacek (2007) uses a firm-specific linkage variable to examine the effect of
share of sales to multinationals within a small sample of large firms in four two-digit
NACE manufacturing sectors in the Czech Republic.
Various factors have been considered to condition the effect of spillovers. For
example, a popular hypothesis is that negative horizontal spillovers in developing
countries are due to the low “absorptive capacity” of domestic firms. It is argued that the
larger the technology and human capital gap between the domestic and foreign firms, the
less likely the domestic firms are able to exploit the potential of spillovers.9
The
implication is that positive spillovers should be found in more technologically advanced
firms, sectors or countries. There is some evidence supporting the human capital gap
hypothesis (e.g., Borensztein, De Gregorio and Lee, 1998, using country level data;
Blalock and Gertler, 2002, using firm level data) but the evidence with respect to the
technology gap is mixed. For example, with U.K. plant-level data, Girma, Greenaway
and Wakelin (2001) find that local firms that are ‘technologically comparable’ to foreign
firms enjoy greater spillover whereas, Haskel, Pereira and Slaughter (2002), using the
same micro data conclude that plants further away from the technology frontier gain most
from foreign presence in their sector (thus supporting Findlay, 1978). Abraham et al.
(2006) find no relationship between the gap and spillovers in China. The findings may
differ because of different measures in that some studies use labor productivity and others
9
The first paper with this argument is perhaps Cohen and Levinthal (1989). The reverse hypothesis -- that
spillovers increase with a larger technology gap -- was put forth earlier by Findlay (1978).
5
total factor productivity. They may also differ because of the methodology used. As
Girma (2005) points out, it may be necessary to take into account certain threshold
values. He finds evidence that the productivity benefit from FDI increases with
absorptive capacity until some threshold level beyond which it becomes less
pronounced.10
The findings may also differ because other factors are not being taken into
account. In their study of China, Abraham et al. (2006) find that if they control for
structure of ownership, there is a significant effect. Finally, studies that proxy technology
by the level of R&D consistently find positive horizontal spillovers in the R&D sector
(see e.g., Kathuria, 2001 using Indian data and Kinoshita, 2000, using data from the
Czech Republic).
Sabirianova, Svejnar and Terrell (2005b) use 1992-2000 firm-level data on the
population of industrial firms in the Czech Republic and Russia and find that the
productivity gap between domestic and foreign firms is increasing in industries with a
greater foreign presence. However, in the Czech Republic this negative horizontal
spillover effect is diminished and eventually reversed over time, whereas in Russia it
becomes stronger and is associated with domestic firms falling further behind the
technology frontier. Since the Czech Republic has been more open to FDI and trade, and
has adopted a stronger (European Union) rule of law than Russia, Sabirianova et al.
(2005b) argue that the different pattern in these two countries suggests that spillovers are
more likely to be positive in environments characterized by competition, rule of law and
openness to foreign investment and international trade.
The business environment may affect spillovers through a number of channels.
Competition may for instance strengthen domestic firms and their ability to absorb
spillovers. Thus Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (2005) argue that local firms that sell to
10
We note that the notion of threshold value is also in Borensztein, De Gregorio and Lee, (1998) who
however argue differently – that a minimum threshold of human capital is needed before a firm can absorb
FDI spillovers.
6
foreign affiliates in protected markets are often subscale in size and inefficient in
operation. Several studies also find supporting evidence on the positive impact of
competition. For example, Blalock and Gertler (in press) and Abraham et al. (2006)
show that spillovers are positive only in sectors with more competition in Indonesia and
China, respectively. However, the relationship between horizontal spillovers and
competition may not be uniform. For example, Sembenelli and Siotis (2002) find, using
Spanish data, that only firms in the R&D sector enjoy positive spillovers when there is
more competition. Aghion, Burgess, Redding, and Zilibotti (2005) develop a model
showing that firm responses to liberalization are likely to be heterogeneous, with
technologically more advanced firms being more likely to respond by investing in new
technologies and production processes, and find supporting evidence with Indian data.
Hence, an open and competitive environment may yield different spillover effects
depending on where the domestic firm is relative to the technological frontier.
The business environment may also affect the quality of FDI brought into a
country and hence spillovers. Foreign affiliates in better business environments are likely
to bring with them better technology as they are more able to maximize profits and hence
have more to spill. Or, as Moran, Graham and Blomstrom (2005, p. 372) put it: “Foreign
investors in countries with domestic content, joint venture and technology sharing
requirements deploy production technique lagging far behind the frontier in international
industry.”
The business environment can also affect the structure of ownership, which has
been found to be correlated with the quality of FDI. Javorcik and Saggi (2004) for
instance argue that foreign affiliates that have a higher level of technology tend to be
wholly owned, rather than joint-ventures, in order to protect their proprietary asset. A
joint-venture arrangement may increase the risk for undesired leakages of the MNEs
technology as the domestic partner may use the inside information in the production of
other goods for which it does not cooperate with the MNE. In an environment with
7
inadequate protection of intellectual property rights, MNEs may tend to create whollyowned
affiliates so as to shelter their technological innovations from being copied.
Hence, if these hypotheses are correct one will see larger positive spillovers from whollyowned
foreign firms than from partially-owned foreign firms and the largest spillovers
from wholly-owned in better business environments.
3. Data and Methodology
We use data from the Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey
(BEEPS), a joint initiative of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development
(EBRD) and the World Bank Group.11
The survey was first undertaken in 1999–2000,
when it was administered to approximately 4,000 enterprises in Central and Eastern
Europe (CEE), Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) to assess the
environment for private enterprise and business development. The second and third
rounds of the BEEPS were carried out in 2002 and 2005 on approximately 6,500 and
7,900 enterprises, respectively, in the same 27 CIS and CEE countries (including
Turkey). In 2005, the BEEPS instrument was administered to approximately the same 27
countries covered by the second round of the BEEPS. The questionnaires and sampling
frames of the 2002 and 2005 BEEPS are very similar (see Appendix for more detail).
In this paper we use primarily the 2005 BEEPS survey as it contains data on the
variables of interest.12
In those cases when we cannot construct rates of change from the
2005 BEEPS, we construct them by combining information from the 2002 and 2005
BEEPS data sets. The original 2005 data base contains a total of 7,942 firms, with 200-
600 firms per country. The share of firms in services ranges from 50% to 65% across the
27 countries. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of the firms have less than 50
11
The description of the data draws heavily from Synovate (2005), the report from the firm that
implemented the BEEPS instrument and provided the EBRD and World Bank with electronic data sets.
12
The reference year for the 2005 BEEPS is actually 2004 and for the 2002 BEEPS it is 2001. However,
for ease of exposition, we simply refer to the year of the survey.
8
employees. Approximately 10% of the firms are foreign owned and another 10% are
state owned. The share of firms that export more than 20% of their output varies widely
across countries: from 5% in Kazakhstan to 30% in Slovenia.
In addition to the BEEPS data, we rely on data from input-output tables to
construct the industry-wide spillover variables. Since we are only able to obtain recent
input-output tables for 17 of these economies, we use the BEEPS data for these countries.
We have attempted to impute values for countries with missing input-output tables by
using the average values from the two closest neighboring countries but we have found
that such imputation introduced too much noise in the data. Appendix Table A1 contains
the country, year and source of our input-output tables.
To assess the extent and nature of spillovers, we focus on revenue efficiency –
i.e., how efficiently firms generate sales revenue from inputs of capital, labor and
materials. By using sales revenues as the dependent variable, we capture total factor
productivity as well as improvements in pricing, marketing and other aspects of revenue
generation that are crucial for corporate performance. The reason we use this broader
measure is that the performance of different types of firms may vary for a number of
reasons, including differences in their efficiency of generating output from inputs, ability
to charge high prices due to diverse product quality or marketing, intangible assets and
the cost of capital, location in highly competitive industries, efficiency of vertical
integration, and extent of outsourcing. Our approach explicitly allows for the efficiency
of different firms to vary on account of any of these factors. Given the dynamic nature of
globalization, we do not presume that firms are in a technical or economic steady state
but rather that they are trying to improve their performance by adopting new methods of
production, importing advanced technologies, launching new products, learning new
managerial and marketing techniques, and implementing other changes. The extent to
which firms are able to succeed may of course depend on the legal and institutional
environment, an issue that we explore in later specifications.
9
We estimate the following Cobb-Douglas baseline regression with pooled data for
all 17 countries:13
1 2 3 4 5ln ij j j j i iY Forward Backward Horizontal SalesMNEs Importα α α α α∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆ + + +
ij6 7 ln ln lnK L M
i i i i i ijExport C K L M Xα α β β β γ+ + ∆ + ∆ + ∆ + + ε (1)
where ∆ refers to change from 2002 to 2005, i and j index firms and industries (at the
two-digit NACE level), respectively, and lnY is the log of sales revenues. The three
industry-specific spillover variables are: Forward and Backward, for forward and
backward linkages, respectively, and Horizontal, for foreign presence in the same
industry (described below). The firm-specific spillover variables, which are measured in
2005 levels, include: SalesMNEs -- the share of a firm’s sales to MNEs,14
Exports --
share of sales exported, and Imports – the share of inputs imported. We include a vector
of variables, C, to control for competition: a dummy, equal to 1 if the firm indicates it
competes in the national market, 0 otherwise; and three dummy variables for low,
medium and high elasticity of demand, respectively (with completely inelastic demand
serving as the base).15
The inputs include: K, capital stock (at replacement value and
utilization adjusted); L, labor (number of employees) and M, intermediate material input
(including electricity). X is a set of country and two digit NACE industry dummy
variables. The industry dummies are interacted with the inputs in order allow for
industry-specific production functions.
Foreign presence in industry j (horizontal linkage) is constructed as is typical in
the literature:
13
Equation (1) can also be interpreted as a first order approximation for more complicated revenue
(production) functions.
14
MNEs is defined here as a firm with 50% or more foreign ownership.
15
The three levels of the elasticity of demand were computed from answers to the question “If you were to
raise the price of your good or service by 10% what response would you get?” The respondent had to select
among the following answers: Our customers would continue to buy from us: a) in the same quantities as
now (completely inelastic); b) at slightly lower quantities (low); c) at much lower quantities (medium);
versus d) many of our customers would buy from our competitors instead (high).
10
( industry )
( industry )
i ii
j
ii
Y s i j
Horizontal
Y i j
⋅ ⋅ ∈
=
⋅ ∈
∑
∑
1
1
, (2)
where si is the share of foreign ownership in firm i. In our econometric specifications, we
exclude own output of the firm in computing Horizontal. Since the number of firms per
industry is in some cases small, the estimate of the foreign presence may be sensitive to
inclusion of very large firms of either domestic or foreign ownership. To attenuate this
problem, we censor the size of sales at the median plus/minus three times the interquantile
range for a given industry and country. Finally, we note that the variable is
constructed with the share of foreign ownership, rather than with a dummy variable
capturing whether the foreign firm is foreign owned or not. However, the share of
foreign ownership is typically over 90%.
The vertical linkage variables can be interpreted as follows: Forwardj is the
average share of domestic firms’ inputs in industry j purchased from foreign firms in
industry h; Backwardj is the average share of domestic firms’ sales in industry j supplied
to foreign firms in industry h. To avoid confusion, we note that the concept of forward
and backward linkages is derived from the perspective of the foreign firm. Specifically,
foreign owned firms provide backward spillovers to domestic firms when they buy from
them and forward spillovers when they sell to them. We follow the methodology used by
Blalock and Gertler (2002), Schoors and van der Tol (2001) and Javorcik (2004) and
denote as the share of sales of industry j sold to industry h. The shares, taken from the
latest input-output table available for each country, are only for domestic intermediate
consumption of goods. They exclude “own” purchases or sales from industry j.
jhs
16
The
forward and backward linkages are computed as follows:
j h hj hjh j h j
Forward FP s s≠
= ⋅∑ ∑ ≠
, (3)
j h jh jhh j h j
Backward FP s s≠
= ⋅∑ ∑ ≠
, (4)
16
In this approach we differ from some other studies, e.g., Blalock and Gertler’s (2002), whose linkage
variable includes purchases from its own sector.
11
where FP is foreign presence (equivalently Horizontal linkage).
We use firm-level data in the 2005 BEEPS to estimate equation (1) since the 2005
survey provides information on the growth from 2002 to 2005 in sales, exports, and each
of the inputs. We use firm level data from both the 2002 and 2005 BEEPS to construct
industry level data on changes over time in the three industry level linkage variables,
Backwardj, Forwardj and Horizontalj. However, the 2005 BEEPS does not collect
information on the 2002-2005 changes in two firm level linkage variables -- SalesMNEs
and Imports – hence, these variables are included as their levels in 2005. For symmetry
we do the same for Exports.
By using firm- rather than just industry-level linkage variables we are able to
eliminate bias introduced by using aggregate data, reduce measurement error, and exploit
firm-level variation in linkage variables that is much greater than the industry-level
variation commonly used in the literature. Perhaps more importantly, by comparing the
strength of linkages using firm- and industry-level variables we can assess if the spillover
is confined to a firm actually supplying an MNE or spread over many firms in a given
industry. This is important because as Blalock and Gertler (in press) point out, nearly
every paper in the literature has used industry-level variables and thus effectively
“considered FDI to be a measure of available technology ….”
The fact that 2002-2005 changes are being regressed on 2005 levels (shares) of
the firm-level linkage variables may lead to biased estimates due to endogeneity of firmspecific
variables. We may find significant effects of firm-specific variables because of
selection (e.g., MNEs may choose to buy from productive domestic firms) and timing
(e.g., output growth between 2002 and 2005 may be high because a firm happened to find
a new market or customer in 2005).
There are several points to be made with respect to this potential problem. First,
we note that the potential reverse causality does not distort estimates of other key
coefficients in the sense that estimating the regression without these variables does not
12
materially change the coefficients or standard errors on the other variables of interest
(Backwardj, Forwardj, and Horizontalj). Hence, even if our estimates of coefficients on
firm-specific variables were to suffer from endogeneity, our inference based on other
variables is largely unaffected. Second, our linkage variables are shares rather than levels
of exports, imports and sales to MNEs. Because there is no strong a priori reason to
expect correlation between productivity and composition of sales, large biases due to
reverse causality are not likely. Third, within a subsample of about 800 firms for which
we can create a panel with the 2002 and 2005 survey data, the correlation coefficients
between the 2002 and 2005 values of Exports, Imports and SalesMNEs, respectively, are
relatively high -- 0.95, 0.93 and 0.42. These coefficients show considerable persistence;
especially when one considers that the variables are expressed as shares. Hence, using
the 2005 rather than 2002 values should not greatly bias the results because of different
timing of the firm specific variables. Furthermore, because export status and other
linkage variables typically involve sizable fixed costs, they depend on the level of
productivity rather than on its dynamics. Since we control for firm-specific fixed effect
by first-differencing the revenue function, we expect possible biases due to selection
effects to be small. Finally, we have estimated our baseline regression (1) on the smaller
panel subsample using 2002 instead of 2005 values of Exports, Imports and SalesMNEs.
The advantage of this specification is that the timing of the values of the firm-specific
variables, combined with the other controls (including the firm fixed effects), practically
precludes the aforementioned endogeneity problems. It is reassuring that while the
coefficients are less significant because of the much smaller sample size and volatile firm
level data, the point estimates are similar to those for the full sample (compare estimates
in Table 1 and appendix Table A2). In sum, we recognize the potential problem in the
BEEPs survey design and note that in the present case the actual problem is likely to be
limited.
13
There are two additional econometric issues that need to be addressed. One is the
potential selection issue of FDI. Foreign firms may for example choose to locate in a
given country because it has better telecommunications or other infrastructure which is
also improving the efficiency of domestic firms. Foreign firms may also select to enter a
given industry because of opportunities that the econometricians do not observe but
which improve the efficiency of firms in that industry. We control for this potential
selection problem by first-differencing and also adding fixed effects for country and
industry to the first-difference specification. First-differencing removes fixed firm-,
industry- and country-specific variation such as that brought about by differences in
infrastructure. The industry and time dummy variables entered in the first-difference
specification control for unobservables that may be driving changes in the attractiveness
of a given country or industry.
Finally, there is the potential endogeneity of inputs. It may be argued that the
inputs are chosen by the firm based on its productivity and not taking this into account
may bias the estimated coefficients. In order to check if this is a serious problem, we
estimate a specification that uses the Solow residual as the measure of efficiency:17
1 2 3 4ij j j j iSolow Forward Backwrd Horizontal SalesMNEsα α α α∆ = ∆ + ∆ + ∆ + +
ij5 6 7i i j ijImport Export C Xα α α γ+ ∆ + + + ε , (5)
where , with β’s being cost shares that we
allow to vary by industry and country in the estimation. This approach differs from the
specification in equation (1) in that it controls for the endogeneity of inputs by placing
them on the left hand side of the equation. Naturally, the tradeoff is that to the extent that
ln ln ln lnK L M
ij ij j ij j ij j ijSolow Y K L Mβ β β= − − −
17
Several other approaches have been proposed to address endogeneity of inputs, including the OlleyPakes
(1996) investment proxy estimator, the Blundell-Bond (2000) system GMM estimator, and the
Levinsohn-Petrin (2003) intermediate input proxy estimator. The methods have various well known
strengths, limitations and data requirements -- see Ackerberg et al. (2006) for details on identification
problems of these estimators. For us, the main constraint is, however, the short time span of our sample. In
view of the nature of our data, we have opted for the Solow residual method as the best approach since it
has minimal data requirements and relies on relatively mild assumptions.
14
the assumptions of competition, constant-returns to scale in the revenue function and
cost-minimization are not met, the cost shares may not reflect the equalization of
marginal cost and marginal revenue by the firms and the use of cost shares may bias our
results.
Given the large sample size of about 4,600 domestic firms with no FDI, we are
able to estimate equations (1) and (5) separately for firms in the manufacturing and
service sectors, firms with fewer than 30 employees (small) and more than 30 employees
(large), firms in existence before these economies became emerging markets in 1990
(old) and firms created since 1990 (new). This enables us to avoid aggregation bias and
answer questions that were not analyzed in previous studies.
The descriptive statistics are presented for all domestic firms as well as for each
of these six categories in appendix Table A3. We note that the change in the industry
level linkage variables (Backward, Forward, and Horizontal) is negative over this period,
indicating that the share of output produced by foreign firms was falling, or put
differently, that output of domestic firms was growing more rapidly than that of foreign
firms. The share of sales to MNEs rose by 5.7% on average over the three-year period,
and the growth was faster in large than small firms, and in manufacturing than in
services. The degree of bribing and the share of managers’ time spent with bureaucrats
fell over the period by 1% and 4% respectively, however the levels remained relatively
high with an average of 2.3% of sales spent on bribing and 5.2% of managers’ time spent
with bureaucrats.
4. Vertical and Horizontal Spillovers and other Baseline Findings
The key results from estimating equations (1) and (5) are presented in Tables 1
and 2, respectively. The findings for efficiency in both the Cobb-Douglas and Solow
residual estimations are very similar in terms of signs, with the former occasionally
achieving somewhat higher statistical significance. Given the similarity of results and the
15
fact that the Solow residual is a noisy measure of productivity, we continue with the
widely used Cobb-Douglas specification.
Backward spillover: The coefficient estimates based on the industry level inputoutput
table data are similar in magnitude in the two specifications and overall they point
to a large positive spillover from supplying to MNEs. The overall estimates based on all
firms, reported in columns 1 of Tables 1 and 2, indicate that a one percentage increase in
sales of domestic firms in a given industry j to foreign firms in a given industry h raises
the rate of growth of efficiency of domestic firms in industry j by 0.07-0.08%. When
estimated by firm categories, the coefficient is positive and statistically significant for
large firms (0.14-0.16) in both models and in the Cobb-Douglas specification also for
new firms (0.095) and firms in manufacturing (0.09). The coefficients for other
categories of firms are positive but the standard errors are too large to generate statistical
significance at conventional test levels.
Forward Spillover: The estimated coefficients are positive but statistically
insignificant. The exceptions are firms in the service sector and old firms in the Solow
residual equation, which generate significant positive effects. On the whole, our estimates
in Table 1 and 2 suggest that purchasing from foreign firms (i.e., from industries with a
higher share of foreign firms) does not provide major efficiency enhancing effects for
domestic firms.
Horizontal Spillovers: The coefficients on this variable are smaller than those on
the Forward and Backward variables. They are generally positive, but statistically
significant only for old enterprises and to a lesser extent for service sector firms. These
findings therefore suggest that firms that compete effectively and benefit from the
presence of foreign competitors are those that are well established (old) or operate in a
sector where methods and skills of production are relatively visible and transferable
(services). The estimated coefficients on old firms and services indicate that a one percent
increase in the share of foreign firms’ output in a given industry raises the rate of growth
16
of efficiency of old firms in the same industry by 0.06-0.07% and that of service sector
firms by about 0.05%.
Sales to MNEs: This firm-specific effect is positive for all categories of firms and
the point estimate is similar for each firm type across the two specifications. All the
estimated coefficients are statistically significant in the Cobb-Douglas specification and
all but two are significant in the Solow model. A one percent increase in sales to MNEs
as a share of a firm’s output in 2005 is associated with a 0.05% increase in the growth of
efficiency in both the Cobb-Douglas and Solow specifications, irrespective of firm-type.
Thus, supplying foreign firms has a direct effect on the productivity, in addition to the
indirect effects measured by the industry-level variables.
Exports: The coefficients on share of sales exported are positive and robust, with
very similar point estimates for all firm-types across both specifications. A one percent
increase in the share of sales that are exported is associated with a 0.06-0.07% increase in
the rate of growth of efficiency of local firms, with a potentially higher effect on old and
service sector firms. The only estimate that is not statistically significant is the effect for
large firms in the Cobb-Douglas specification.
Imports: The effects of importing are not significant for any of the firm
categories in either specification. This lack of significance parallels that with respect to
purchases from MNEs (forward linkage) above.
Firms that compete in national markets have on average 0.02% faster efficiency
growth than firms that compete only in local markets. According to both specifications,
the effect is statistically significant, irrespective of firm age, in small firms and firms in
services. We interpret this as indicating that firms that compete in the national markets
tend to be larger and able to take advantage of economies of scale as well as market
power for networking and lobbying. Perhaps they are also able to practice transfer
pricing/accounting and shift production from one region to another according to demand.
17
Elasticity of Demand: Firms that report low, medium and high elasticities of
demand, compared to the base of completely inelastic demand, have slower growth of the
efficiency of generating revenue from inputs. The negative point estimate is larger for
firms reporting medium and high elasticities than those reporting a low value. Since the
dependent variable is sales revenues rather than physical output, the results suggest that
firms with inelastic demand (no competition) can increase prices faster than those facing
higher demand elasticity and that either a) the expected positive effect of competition on
efficiency is outweighed by a monopoly power pricing effect or b) the Schumpeterian
view that monopoly power gives firms more resources to innovate and become more
efficient holds.
To sum up, the estimates in Tables 1 and 2 suggest that domestic firms that supply
foreign firms experience a faster rate of increase in efficiency than otherwise identical
domestic firms that do not supply foreign firms. The effect is more robust in the firmspecific
variables than in the industry-specific variable but its magnitude is of the same
order in the firm- and industry-specific variables. Our findings indicate that broadly
defined spillovers (technology diffusion) are taking place from foreign firms to their
domestic suppliers. The findings are robust across our specifications and are consistent
with the evidence in other studies, probably because this is an active transfer of
knowledge due to the high quality demands placed on domestic firms by MNEs. On the
other hand, domestic firms that buy from MNEs (either in the country or outside) or
compete with MNEs in the same industry do not seem to gain positive spillovers,
although the signs of the coefficients on Forward and Horizontal tend to be positive.
There are two exceptions however: Firms in the service sector and old firms have positive
and significant efficiency gains from buying from MNES (in the Solow residual
equation) and competing with MNEs (in the Cobb-Douglas equation). We interpret this
finding as indicating that in general it is more difficult for a domestic firm to gain
efficiency spillovers from a foreign firm when it is in an upstream or competitive
18
relationship with the MNE, than when it is in a downstream relationship. In the latter, the
foreign firm is directly transferring knowledge whereas in the former two, there are no
incentives to do so. Hence the imitative spillovers that one would expect from firms
competing in the same product or service market are more difficult to obtain. Moreover,
if domestic firms are purchasing inputs that are relatively high priced, it may reduce gains
in revenue efficiency. Alternatively, if they purchase inputs that are not easily
incorporated into the production process (e.g., because their technology is too different,
not sufficiently sturdy, etc.), this could reduce efficiency gains.18
In future research it
will be of interest to investigate why service sector and old firms are able to gain these
spillovers. Domestic firms in the service sector may for instance be better than those in
manufacturing at using and imitating foreign firms’ technology if the gestation period of
the investment in services is shorter and they are able to be more agile in correcting errors
in the next round of investment. Similarly old firms may be more able to learn and use
foreign firms’ technology to improve their revenue efficiency if they have better access to
capital than new firms.
5. The Effect of Business Environment and Quality of FDI on Spillovers
As noted above, differences between countries’ spillover gains may be caused by
differences in the business environment (institutions) and the quality of FDI entering the
country. In this section we explore these effects.
Moran et al. (2005) as well as others argue that a country with better intellectual
property rights (IPRs) and more openness to market competition and FDI attracts higher
quality FDI because by being unconstrained the foreign firms optimize and bring in the
latest technology. Conversely, countries that have poor protection of property rights,
impose restrictions on ownership or require technology sharing attract FDI with a lower
18
For example, the failure of the Polish experiment to boost productivity of its firms through the
importation western technology because they were unable to us it is infamous (see, e.g., Terrell, 1992).
19
level of technology. Branstetter, Fisman and Foley (2006) have shown that US
multinationals respond to changes in IPR regimes in host countries by increasing
technology transfer significantly to reforming countries. Their analysis does not consider
the impact on reforming countries but presumably increased technology transfer should
lead to greater efficiency in domestic firms interacting with the MNEs.
Since firms tend to guard their proprietary assets, several studies have concluded
that foreign investors are more likely to transfer better technology within wholly owned
multinationals subsidiaries than in joint ventures or licensees (e.g., Javorcik and
Spartareanu, 2003). Others have shown that in countries with limited rule of law, MNEs
tend to shy away from joint-ownership and choose to invest in wholly-owned ventures
(e.g., McCalman, 2004 and Smarzynska and Wei, 2002 who study impact of intellectual
property rights and corruption, respectively, on mode of entry).
Another factor that may affect spillovers is the origin of foreign investors. It could
be argued that FDI from more developed countries is likely have a higher level of
technology than FDI from less advanced countries.19
Hence, domestic firms that are able
to grasp this technology will gain more, all other things equal.
Overall, this reasoning and evidence suggests that there should be higher quality
FDI in countries with better business environments (i.e., less corruption or better rule of
law), firms that are wholly-owned by foreign investors and in FDI that comes from more
developed countries. Higher quality FDI should yield greater spillovers, ceteris paribus.
In our tests, we compare the spillover effects of FDI: a) in different business
environments, b) from wholly-owned (v. partially-owned) foreign firms, and c) from
OECD v. non-OECD countries. However, it should also be noted that in a) and b), the
higher quality FDI is motivated by better protection of its proprietary assets. Hence,
19
The origin of FDI may matter for spillovers for other reasons as well. If multinationals further from the
host country tend to source more from the host than FDI from countries closer to the host or if FDI
included within a preferential trade agreement has more access than FDI outside the trade bloc, one might
expect greater spillovers (an argument put forth by Javorcik, Saggi and Spatarenu, 2004).
20
spillovers may not be larger because it is also more difficult to imitate or reverse engineer
the technology of a foreign firm when, for example, the domestic firm is in an
environment where intellectual property rights are protected.
We start by testing whether vertical and horizontal spillovers vary systematically
with different business environments. The BEEPS survey offers a unique opportunity to
examine the impact of the characteristics of the business environment because it not only
has a rich set of variables that capture these factors but, importantly, this information is
collected at the firm level. Moreover, BEEPS has large cross-country variation that is
usually absent in other studies. In testing for the effect of the business environment on
the strength of spillovers, it is useful to rewrite our baseline specification as
ln ij ij i ij ijY Z Xα β γ∆ = ⋅∆Λ + ⋅∆ + + ε (6)
where is growth rate of sales revenue from 2002 to 2005,ln ijY∆ Λ is the vector of
either industry or firm specific linkage variables, Z is a vector of inputs and X is a set of
other controls such as industry and country dummies. Coefficients α measure the
strength of linkages.
X
Let G be a vector of variables that captures institutions/business environment. To
capture the effect of G on productivity and the strength of spillovers, we modify our
baseline specification (6) and estimate the following regression
ln ij ij j ij j i ij ijY G G Zα θ ψ β γ∆ = ⋅ ∆Λ + ⋅ ∆ ⋅ ∆Λ + ⋅ ∆ + ⋅ ∆ + + ε . (7)
Among the many variables in the BEEPS that measure the business environment,
we consider the following two: 1) Bribe (corruption) measured as the percentage of total
annual sales typically paid in unofficial payments/gifts to public officials; and 2)
Bureaucratic red tape, proxied by the percentage of management’s time spent with
officials. One would expect spillovers to be more positive when there is less bureaucratic
tape or corruption because this will attract higher quality FDI and perhaps because
domestic firms in these environments will allocate more resources to be able to absorb
21
technology spillovers. These two variables are constructed by averaging the responses for
all the firms in the industry and country in which the firm is located.
We provide separate estimates of the effects of corruption and bureaucratic tape
on spillovers in Tables 3 and 4, respectively. Within each table we also report separate
estimates of the effect of the institution on spillovers measured by the industry-specific
variable (Panel A) and the firm-specific linkage variable (Panel B).
As may be seen from Panel A of Table 3, the estimates obtained from interacting
the 2002-2005 rate of change in the intensity of corruption, measured by the Bribe
variable, with the 2002-2005 change in the forward, backward and horizontal linkage
variables do not reveal any systematic patterns. The coefficients tend to be negative but
are not significant except for a dampening effect that an increase in bribes has on
horizontal spillovers to small firms. The finding that small firms would be more
negatively affected by MNE presence/competition in more corrupt environments is
plausible. It is notable, however, that with this one exception, an increase in the intensity
of corruption (Bribe) has neither a direct nor an interactive effect on the rate of change of
efficiency of any other type of domestic firms. The firm-specific estimates in Panel B of
Table 3 are consistent with those in Panel A in showing that corruption does not seem to
strongly affect vertical spillovers. The only significant negative effect is on large firms
selling to MNEs. Interestingly the magnitude of the coefficient for the similar industry
variable (interaction between Bribe and Backward) is also greatest for large firms
although it is not significant.
Table 4 shows the effects of bureaucratic red tape (the percentage of manager’s
time spent with officials) on vertical and horizontal spillovers using the industry- and
firm-specific variables in Panels A and B, respectively. The coefficients in both panels
indicate that an increase in the time spent with officials tends to dampen spillovers to
upstream firms (i.e., Backward, SalesMNEs, but not Exports), as the coefficients are
negative, but only significant for small and old firms (for Backward) and large and
22
service sector firms (for SalesMNEs). On the other hand, large firms and those
established before 1991 tend to benefit in terms of revenue efficiency from an increased
presence of foreign firms in their industry (Horizontal) and the benefit rises with greater
interaction with government officials (Panel A). In these situations, the time spent with
officials may not reflect the burden of red tape, but rather the net effect of the ability of
managers to obtain better terms for doing their business. Finally, we consistently find
there are no spillovers to downstream domestic firms (Forward and Imports), with the
exception for firms in the service sector (and old firms thought not significant at
conventional levels in this specification), and spending time with managers does not
improve or detract from this.
The specification in equation (7) is of course very demanding on the data because
it identifies all effects only from the 2002-2005 variation and does not exploit the sizable
cross-country and cross-industry variation at a given point in time. We have therefore
also estimated a specification that exploits the level rather than rate of change of
corruption. In particular, we have revised equation (7) to include the 2002 levels of the
institutional variables as follows:
2002 2002
ln ij ij j ij j i ij ijY G G Z Xα θ ψ β γ∆ = ⋅ ∆Λ + ⋅ ⋅ ∆Λ + ⋅ + ⋅ ∆ + + ε . (8)
When we estimate equation (8), the estimates of θ and ψ (not reported here) are not
significantly different from zero for the 2002 levels of bribe or manager’s time.
Since the role of institutions is generally considered to be very important, we have
proceeded with additional lines of investigation. We examine whether the business
environment variables have a systematic effect when they are measured at the country
level rather than at the industry and country level. This corresponds to the notion that the
effect of corruption and other institutional features in a given country has a uniform effect
on all firms rather than affecting firms in some industries more than those in others. We
therefore calculate new 2002 measures of bribe and manager’s time as the average
23
responses to these two respective questions by all firms in a given country. We rank the
17 countries by each of these two indicators and divide them into three groups for each
indicator. Next we estimate a specification that interacts each of these categorical
variables of corruption (managers’ time) with the three linkage variables. The results
(not reported here) indicate that there is no systematic effect. Using country-level
indicators, we hence cannot find any evidence of an effect of the business environment in
terms of the level of corruption or bureaucratic red tape on the strength of spillovers.
Given that specific institutional indicators do not generate systematic effects, we
next explore the effects of business environment implicitly in a broader (regional)
context. In particular, we re-estimate the baseline specification (equation 1) separately for
four groups of countries that are viewed as having relatively similar institutional
structures within groups but considerable differences between groups: 1) Commonwealth
of Independent States or CIS (represented in our sample by Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia,
and Ukraine); 2) Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania); 3) Central and Eastern
Europe or CEE (represented by Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia); and 4)
South-Eastern Europe or SEE (represented by Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania,
Slovenia). These estimates are reported in Table 5. Since each regression is based on a
smaller number of observations than the earlier estimates based on the entire sample,
many coefficients are estimated less precisely than in the previous regressions based on
the full sample. Indeed, none of the industry-level measures of backward, forward and
horizontal linkages produces a significant effect, except for a positive effect of a
horizontal linkage in SEE. The firm-specific linkage variables have more significance
and suggest that the positive efficiency effects of the firm-specific share of sales to MNEs
(salesMNEs) and share of exports in sales (Exports) in the overall regression are driven
primarily by firms in the CIS and CEE regions. Given the wide gap in these regions’
development and business environments, this finding again suggests that there is not a
significant effect of the environmental factors on spillovers. Moreover, importing has a
24
diverse effect across the regions, increasing efficiency in the Baltics and reducing it in
SEE. We conclude that whereas the findings do vary by region, they are not
systematically correlated with the level of development.
Next, to test the hypotheses regarding the strength of spillovers and quality of FDI
as proxied by degree of foreign ownership (whole v. partial) and country of origin of the
FDI, we re-estimate equation (1) with new variables for the backward, forward, and
horizontal linkages. The foreign presence variable, FPj, is recalculated for share of output
by wholly-owned foreign firms v. partially-owned ones and for share of output produced
by FDI from OECD countries v. non-OECD countries. Specifically, we estimate
ln whole partial
ij W ij P ij i ij ijY Z Xα α β γ∆ = ⋅∆Λ + ⋅∆Λ + ⋅∆ + + ε , (9)
where is a vector of linkage variables computed according to equations (2)-(4)
with s
whole
ijΛ
i = 1 in (2) -- i.e., linkage variables for wholly owned firms only, and is a
vector of linkage variables computed according to (2)-(4) with s
partial
ijΛ
i < 1 in (2) -- i.e., linkage
variables for partially owned firms only. The findings for these proxies of the “quality of
FDI” are presented in Table 6.
As may be seen from Panel A of Table 6, apart from the backward linkages one
cannot reject the hypothesis that the linkage coefficients for wholly and partially owned
foreign firms are pair-wise identical. As to the backward linkage, the positive effect
observed on the entire sample earlier appears to be driven by firms with partial foreign
ownership (especially those that are large and new), suggesting that the combination of
local and foreign know-how is superior to the know-how generated by foreign ownership
alone.
The results in Panel B of Table 6 indicate that FDI from advanced economies
does not uniformly lead to higher efficiency spillovers than FDI from less developed
25
countries. On the contrary, FDI from developing countries has a stronger positive effect
more often than FDI from advanced economies. Thus FDI from OECD results in a
positive backward linkage effect among new firms and those in services, while FDI from
non-OECD has a positive forward linkage effect among large firms, old firms and in the
sample as a whole. Non-OECD FDI has a positive forward linkage effect in large firms,
old firms and those in services, while OECD FDI does not have a positive linkage effect
for any category of firms. Finally, one cannot reject the hypothesis that the horizontal
linkage effect of OECD and non-OECD FDI is the same for all categories of firms except
the old firms, where the non-OECD FDI registers a strong positive linkage effect, while
the corresponding effect of OECD FDI is insignificant.
The estimates in Table 6 indicate that for the most part there appears to be no
systematic difference in productivity spillovers from wholly v. partially owned foreign
firms or from FDI from OECD v. non-OECD countries. If anything spillovers are more
frequently greater for FDI in partially (rather than wholly) owned foreign firms and FDI
from non-OECD rather than OECD countries. Hence, neither the conjecture that whollyowned
foreign firms have higher levels of technology than partially-owned ones, nor the
conjecture that the quality of FDI from OECD countries is better than that from nonOECD
countries are be borne out in terms of the estimated spillover effects. However,
we recognize that spillovers may not be greater the higher the quality/technology of FDI
if the foreign firm is better able to protect its proprietary asset or if local firms are not
able to absorb them. Hence, for example, the lower level technology in the non-OECD
FDI may be more easily absorbed in these countries. Another story consistent with these
findings would be that the OECD FDI is better able to protect its proprietary assets than
non-OECD FDI. We are not able to distinguish between these hypotheses with our data
However, we can pursue this issue further by carrying out tests of whether
spillovers vary systematically by the interaction of wholly and partially foreign owned
firms and host country environment. In doing so, we use the country level variable for
26
corruption and manager’s time spent with government officials. We rank countries in the
top v. bottom half of the distribution of each of these two variables and we interact the
two variables with the spillover and wholly v. partially owned variables. In our estimates
(not reported here), we do not find any of the coefficients of interest to be significant.
6. “Absorptive Capacity” of the Firm and Spillovers
A popular hypothesis in the literature is that the extent to which local firms
benefit from FDI spillovers depends on the level of their technology (efficiency) or
human capital. As noted earlier, there are two opposing views in the FDI spillover
literature with respect the impact of a firm’s distance to the efficiency frontier on
spillovers. In a series of recent papers, Acemoglu, Aghion and Zilibotti (2002) and
Aghion, Bloom, Blundell, Griffith, and Howitt (2005) use a Schumpeterian model to
predict that firms that are close to the efficiency frontier benefit more from foreign
presence than firms that are far from the frontier. Melitz (2003) obtains similar results
although in his model foreign presence has only general equilibrium effects.
The empirical problem for testing the hypothesis with respect to the ‘efficiency or
technology gap’ is that the level of efficiency is not observed and thus it is hard to
compute the distance to the frontier at the firm level.20
We tackle this problem in the
following way. Since there is substantial evidence that foreign firms are more efficient
than domestic firms in the developing countries, we assume that foreign firms embody
the efficiency frontier. Firms that are similar to foreign firms along observed
characteristics are likely to have efficiency (technology) that is close to that of the
foreign-owned counterparts. If observed characteristics of domestic firms are different
from observed characteristic of the foreign-owned firms, the domestic firms are likely to
use a technology different from the technology used by foreign-owned firms. At the
20
We do not use stochastic frontier analysis because the distance from the frontier interacted with other
variables is correlated with the residual, which includes the level of technology.
27
minimum, one can interpret this difference as the distance from the business practice of
foreign-owned firms.
To construct such a metric of discrepancy, we draw on the literature on matching
(e.g., Rosembaum 2002). Specifically, we use the Mahalanobis distance, i.e., the distance
of domestic firm i to a foreign firm as measured by
where x are observed characteristics, F and D denote foreign-owned and domestic
companies and S
1 1
min{( ) ( )}D F D F
i i j x i j
j F
d x x S x x−
∈
′= − − / 2
i
x is the covariance matrix of the vector of observed characteristics x. We
take the minimum over all possible distances since efficiency/technology (business
practices and models) can vary across foreign-owned firms.
The vector of observed characteristics contains the logarithm of capital stock and
number of employees, structure of the employment (educational attainment in terms of
number of employees that completed primary school, vocational school, secondary
school, or college; and skill level in terms of number of employees that are managers,
skilled workers, unskilled workers, or professional employees), type of location (capital,
large city, mediums-size city, town), industry (NACE 2-digit level), export status
(Yes/No), and country. We match firms by industry and country exactly, i.e., domestic
firms can be matched only to foreign-owned firms in the same industry and country.
Since the distance is strongly skewed, we take log(1 )iDistance d≡ + as the distance
from the frontier in our specification.
To test the hypothesis that distance to the frontier affects the strength of
spillovers, we modify the baseline specification (1) in a manner similar to the
modification that tests for the effects of institutions:
ln ij ij i ij i i ij ijY Distance Distance Z Xα θ ψ β∆ = ⋅ ∆Λ + ⋅ ⋅ ∆Λ + + ⋅ ∆ + +γ ε . (10)
The effect of distance on the strength of vertical and horizontal linkages is captured by
the coefficient on the interaction of Distance with linkage Λ .
28
The key findings on the efficiency gap are reported in Table 7. The coefficients
on Distance are consistent with the theoretical prediction by showing that domestic firms
that are further away from foreign firms are less efficient in generating revenue from
inputs than firms that are closer to foreign firms. Coefficients on the interactions of
distance and linkages are also by and large negative, suggesting that firms that are further
from foreign firms tend to have smaller horizontal and vertical spillovers, but the
coefficients are only statistically significant for backward spillovers in old firms and
horizontal spillovers in manufacturing.21
The prediction that firms that are close to the
technological frontier benefit more from foreign presence than firms that are far from the
technological frontier hence receives only limited statistical support in our data and is
consistent with the diverse findings in the literature and the non-findings by Abraham,
Konings, and Slootmaeker (2006) for China.
Finally, the effect of education measured as the share of workers with a university
or higher education, reported in Table 8, indicates that firms with more educated workers
do indeed tend to be more efficient, although when split by firm type the coefficient is
statistically significant only for firms that are small, new and in services. The coefficient
on the interaction terms of education and linkages are by and large insignificant, implying
that domestic firms with a more educated workforce are not better able to absorb
spillovers than those with a less educated workforce.
7. Summary and Conclusions
Using data from 17 emerging market economies, we advance our understanding
of the magnitude of vertical and horizontal spillovers of multinational enterprises
21
Kathuria (2000) has measured technical efficiency as the distance between the local firm and the most
efficient firm in the industry using data from 1975/76 to 1988/89 in India; he finds that foreign presence
leads to increased dispersion of efficiency in the industry over time. Whereas the independent variable is
similar the Mahalanobis distance, the outcome variable (dispersion in efficiency) differs. One can interpret
this as a negative spillover.
29
(MNEs) on the efficiency of domestic firms by (i) estimating the direct backward
spillover of MNEs on firms that sell to MNEs, in addition to estimating the usual
industry-level spillover on all firms, (ii) providing much larger comparative evidence
than other studies, (iii) generating estimates not only for manufacturing but also for
services, (iv) analyzing not only large but also small firms that tend to be the new
entrepreneurs and engines of growth, (v) using a broader measure of efficiency than other
studies by analyzing how efficiently firms generate sales revenue, taking into account
inputs of capital, labor and materials, (vi) including in the analysis of vertical spillovers
the concept of selling or buying from outside of the country, (vii) shedding light on the
impact of a country’s institutions/business environment on the strength of vertical and
horizontal spillovers, and (viii) testing whether FDI from more v. less advanced countries
and FDI in the form of a wholly foreign-owned firms versus joint ventures has larger
spillovers, and (ix) addressing the question of whether the efficiency/technology or
human capital gap of local firms relative to foreign firms affects the strength of
spillovers.
In our baseline estimates we provide support for the findings of recent singlecountry
studies that there are positive backward spillovers on efficiency, using an
industry-level variable based on input-output tables. We extend these findings by
showing that our firm-specific measure of backward spillovers (SalesMNEs) generates
significant positive effects among virtually all categories of firms, while the industrylevel
measure used in existing studies generates significant estimates only in large firms,
new firms and firms in manufacturing. Hence, we present an important finding that
spillovers from FDI have a direct and indirect component in the sense that interaction
with foreign firms benefits a given domestic firm through its direct interaction with a
foreign firm and indirectly through the interactions of other domestic firms with MNEs.
Future firm-level surveys should incorporate more questions on the vertical relationships
between foreign and domestic firms in order to capture spillovers more precisely.
30
Our finding that forward and horizontal spillovers are usually insignificant is also
in line with the bulk of the literature and consistent with the notion that these types of
spillovers should be less likely to occur than backward spillovers. However, we do find
that these two types of spillovers are positive and significant for firms in the service
sector and old firms, which deserves further research. It suggests that firms that benefit
from the presence of foreign competitors and from supplying MNEs are those that are
well established (old) or operate in a sector where methods and skills of production are
relatively visible (services).
The coefficients on share of sales exported are usually positive and significant,
while the effects of importing are not significant for any of the firm categories in either
specification. These two results parallel the above significance of sales to MNEs and
general lack of significance with respect to purchases from MNEs. Hence, we identify a
pattern that supplying a foreign firm, whether in the host country or outside of the
country, has knowledge spillover effects whereas purchasing from foreign firms,
domestically or from abroad, in general does not.
Our analysis of the performance effects of key institutional variables focuses on
bribes (corruption) to public officials and regulatory burden as measured by the time that
top management spends with public officials. We find that by and large these aspects of
the business environment do not have the negative effects on performance predicted by
recent authors. Corruption does not have a direct or indirect effect on efficiency of
domestic firms. It is possible that the insignificant results are being driven by two
competing forces: a) bribes are enabling domestic firms to be able to be more efficient
(“greasing the wheels”) v. b) bribes are increasing the costs of doing business and driving
some firms out of business. Counter to our hypothesis, we find that the time that a top
manager spends with bureaucrats actually has a positive effect on the firm’s efficiency in
manufacturing, and strengthens horizontal spillovers in large firms and in old firms. In
these situations, the time spent with officials may not reflect the burden of red tape, but
31
rather the net effect of the ability of managers to obtain better terms for doing their
business. We also detect a negative effect obtained for small and old firms with respect to
the interaction of the change in the backward linkage and the change in time management
spends with government officials. This suggests that for these firms the time spent with
officials may on the net detract from the time managers need to raise their ability to sell
to the increasingly more present MNEs. Nevertheless, our findings that key measures of
institutions/business environment have surprisingly little effect on firm efficiency –
directly or indirectly through spillovers – raises issues about the magnitude of their effect
v. the researchers’ ability to measure them.
We also test for the hypothesis that firms with higher quality FDI provide greater
spillovers to domestic firms. Following the literature, we assume that wholly foreignowned
firms have higher quality than partially foreign-owned firms and that FDI from
more advanced (OECD) countries is of higher quality, and hence yields more positive
spillovers, than FDI from less advanced (non-OECD) countries. We also test whether
spillovers are greatest from wholly foreign-owned firms in good host country business
environments (less corruption and less manager’s time spent with government officials)
and smallest from partially-owned firms in poor host country business environments. We
find no systematic support for any of these hypotheses. If anything, spillovers are more
frequently greater for FDI in partially (rather than wholly) foreign-owned firms and FDI
from non-OECD rather than OECD countries. We recognize that this finding could be
due to the fact that leakages may be greater from partially-foreign-owned than in whollyforeign-owned.
Moreover, the “higher level of technology” may not be the “appropriate
technology” for firms in these countries, given their stage of development, a concept
discussed in the development literature in the 1970s (see e.g., Sen, 1975). Hence,
domestic firms are able to use/imitate the technology of the non-OECD countries more
readily.
32
We contribute to the large literature testing whether firms that are closer to the
efficiency/technological frontier or have a higher level of human capital benefit more
from foreign presence, by examining the impact of these two variables on vertical as well
horizontal spillovers and by using a new measure of distance to the frontier. We find that
distance from the frontier tends to dampen the horizontal and vertical spillovers but it is
only significant for horizontal spillovers in manufacturing and backward spillovers in old
firms. Finally, our results indicate that whereas domestic firms with a more educated
workforce are more efficient, they are not better able to absorb spillovers compared to
firms with a less educated workforce. This could be the result of the measure of
education including only university educated when other types of degrees, which we
could not capture (e.g., technical “high schools”), are important for absorptive capacity.22
In sum, while the literature in this area often reports insignificant effects, we find
some significant effects across the board (e.g., selling to MNEs and exporting) and show
that other significant effects are detectable in specific categories of firms or in non-linear
(interactive) specifications. Our analysis points to the need for future research to take
into account heterogeneous spillover effects. It also highlights the value of having firmlevel
linkage variables in addition to the usual industry-level measures.
22
However, Gorodnichenko, Svejnar and Terrell (2007) find that the share of university educated is an
important factor in explaining the probability that a firm innovates.
33
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Table 1. Spillover Effects on Revenue Efficiency Using Cobb-Douglas Production Function
ALL
FIRMS
LARGE SMALL MNFG SERVICES OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
∆ Backward 0.075** 0.144** 0.033 0.090* 0.077 0.072 0.095**
(0.038) (0.057) (0.053) (0.055) (0.063) (0.068) (0.047)
∆ Forward 0.035 0.026 0.037 0.023 0.108 0.075 0.020
(0.035) (0.052) (0.047) (0.050) (0.070) (0.081) (0.038)
∆ Horizontal 0.020 0.031 0.008 0.009 0.052* 0.061** 0.004
(0.016) (0.022) (0.021) (0.023) (0.031) (0.031) (0.018)
Share of sales to MNEs 0.047*** 0.051*** 0.042* 0.036* 0.049** 0.060** 0.040**
(0.014) (0.017) (0.023) (0.021) (0.022) (0.024) (0.017)
Export share 0.056*** 0.030 0.055** 0.060*** 0.077*** 0.068** 0.050***
(0.014) (0.020) (0.022) (0.016) (0.027) (0.028) (0.017)
Import share -0.009 0.013 -0.016 -0.013 -0.009 -0.009 -0.007
(0.008) (0.014) (0.010) (0.013) (0.012) (0.018) (0.009)
Compete in national markets 0.022*** 0.011 0.022*** 0.006 0.033*** 0.025* 0.019***
(0.006) (0.010) (0.008) (0.009) (0.009) (0.013) (0.007)
Elasticity of demand
Low -0.027*** -0.026** -0.029*** -0.011 -0.035*** -0.001 -0.035***
(0.007) (0.011) (0.009) (0.011) (0.011) (0.014) (0.008)
Medium -0.041*** -0.044*** -0.040*** -0.028** -0.051*** -0.038** -0.040***
(0.008) (0.014) (0.010) (0.013) (0.013) (0.018) (0.009)
High -0.042*** -0.037*** -0.046*** -0.027** -0.065*** -0.050*** -0.038***
(0.008) (0.013) (0.009) (0.011) (0.012) (0.016) (0.009)
Observations 4981 1714 3267 1975 2293 1264 3717
R-squared 0.60 0.61 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated effects on revenue efficiency using a Cobb-Douglas
function, where the dependent variables is growth rate of sales revenues; the independent
variables include the growth rate of three inputs (utilization adjusted capital, number of
employees and materials), country and industry fixed effects, and the reported variables. See text
for definition of variables. Large firms are defined as firms with more than 30 employees. MNFG
= manufacturing firms according to NACE classification. OLD firms are defined as firms
established before 1991. NEW firms are established in 1991 or after 1991. Benchmark group for
the elasticity of demand is “inelastic”. Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; *
significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
39
Table 2. Spillover Effects on Revenue Efficiency Using the Solow Residual
ALL
FIRMS
LARGE SMALL MNFG SERVICES OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
∆ Backward 0.071 0.157** 0.023 0.059 0.096 0.071 0.090
(0.045) (0.067) (0.062) (0.067) (0.075) (0.081) (0.055)
∆ Forward 0.039 0.055 0.022 0.027 0.161** 0.196** -0.001
(0.041) (0.064) (0.054) (0.061) (0.082) (0.091) (0.046)
∆ Horizontal 0.016 0.043 -0.001 0.017 0.051 0.071** -0.002
(0.018) (0.026) (0.024) (0.027) (0.035) (0.034) (0.022)
Share of sales to MNEs 0.048*** 0.036 0.058** 0.027 0.049* 0.057* 0.044**
(0.017) (0.022) (0.026) (0.023) (0.029) (0.031) (0.020)
Export share 0.076*** 0.072*** 0.060** 0.100*** 0.080*** 0.107*** 0.059***
(0.016) (0.022) (0.026) (0.018) (0.030) (0.029) (0.020)
Import share -0.009 0.008 -0.014 -0.013 -0.009 -0.029 -0.002
(0.010) (0.016) (0.012) (0.014) (0.015) (0.019) (0.011)
Compete in national markets 0.026*** 0.005 0.031*** 0.008 0.043*** 0.024 0.024***
(0.007) (0.012) (0.009) (0.011) (0.011) (0.015) (0.008)
Elasticity of demand
Low -0.031*** -0.026* -0.033*** -0.003 -0.043*** 0.004 -0.043***
(0.008) (0.014) (0.011) (0.013) (0.012) (0.017) (0.010)
Medium -0.037*** -0.042*** -0.035*** -0.023 -0.047*** -0.031 -0.038***
(0.010) (0.016) (0.012) (0.015) (0.015) (0.020) (0.011)
High -0.041*** -0.018 -0.051*** -0.014 -0.076*** -0.032* -0.043***
(0.009) (0.015) (0.011) (0.014) (0.013) (0.019) (0.010)
Observations 4991 1716 3275 1979 2297 1267 3724
R-squared 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.03 0.06 0.08 0.04
Note: The table reports the estimated effects on revenue efficiency using the Solow residual,
where the dependent variables is the growth rate of sales revenues; the independent variables
include the rates of change of three inputs (utilization adjusted capital, number of employees and
materials) whose cost shares are allowed to vary by industry, as well as country and industry
fixed effects, and the reported variables. See text for definition of variables. Large firms are
defined as firms with more than 30 employees. MNFG = manufacturing firms according to
NACE classification. OLD firms are defined as firms established before 1991. NEW firms are
established in 1991 or after 1991. Benchmark group for the elasticity of demand is “inelastic”.
Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; ***
significant at 1%
40
Table 3: Effect of Bribes on Strength of Spillovers and Revenue Efficiency
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERV OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Panel A: Industry Level Linkages
∆ Backward 0.084** 0.140** 0.045 0.089 0.098 0.093 0.102**
(0.039) (0.060) (0.054) (0.057) (0.066) (0.072) (0.048)
∆ Forward 0.026 0.032 0.028 0.039 0.072 0.069 0.007
(0.042) (0.068) (0.053) (0.071) (0.077) (0.096) (0.046)
∆ Horizontal 0.020 0.041* 0.002 0.008 0.039 0.072** 0.004
(0.016) (0.023) (0.021) (0.023) (0.030) (0.032) (0.018)
∆ Backward * ∆ Bribe 0.393 -1.308 0.868 -0.050 1.242 -1.161 1.287
(1.664) (2.368) (2.437) (2.575) (3.595) (3.026) (2.057)
∆ Forward * ∆ Bribe -0.803 0.696 -1.135 0.583 -3.905 -0.922 -1.044
(1.263) (1.695) (1.935) (1.718) (3.399) (2.806) (1.406)
∆ Horizontal * ∆ Bribe -0.608 0.943 -1.515** -0.475 -0.350 -0.513 -0.470
(0.613) (0.767) (0.750) (1.059) (1.194) (1.174) (0.741)
∆ Bribe 0.118 0.306 -0.044 0.131 0.035 0.426 0.148
(0.146) (0.221) (0.191) (0.293) (0.197) (0.298) (0.169)
Observations 4972 1710 3262 1973 2289 1261 3711
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Panel B: Firm Level Linkages
Sales to MNEs 0.039** 0.039** 0.036 0.031 0.041* 0.051** 0.031
(0.016) (0.018) (0.028) (0.026) (0.022) (0.023) (0.021)
Exports 0.063*** 0.040* 0.062** 0.075*** 0.083*** 0.090*** 0.052***
(0.016) (0.023) (0.025) (0.021) (0.029) (0.033) (0.019)
Imports -0.010 0.014 -0.018 -0.024 -0.008 -0.002 -0.010
(0.009) (0.016) (0.011) (0.015) (0.014) (0.018) (0.011)
SMNEs* ∆Bribe -0.947 -1.462** -0.509 -0.654 -0.936 -1.106 -0.914
(0.672) (0.728) (1.191) (1.123) (0.889) (1.412) (0.828)
Exports * ∆Bribe 0.550 0.694 0.608 0.976 0.640 1.068 0.140
(0.518) (0.764) (0.720) (0.936) (0.583) (0.878) (0.643)
Imports * ∆Bribe -0.016 0.133 -0.122 -0.723 0.176 0.923 -0.185
(0.322) (0.460) (0.437) (0.541) (0.478) (0.598) (0.383)
∆ Bribe 0.137 0.249 -0.005 0.341 0.013 0.140 0.235
(0.180) (0.267) (0.242) (0.333) (0.242) (0.361) (0.208)
Observations 4972 1710 3262 1973 2289 1261 3711
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated spillover effects on revenue efficiency using the
specification in equation (8) in the paper. The bribe variable is constructed as the sum of the
answers to the following two questions: 1) “On average, what percent of total annual sales do
firm’s like yours typically pay in unofficial payments/gifts to public officials?”; 2) “When firms
in your industry do business with the government, what percent of the contract value would be
typically paid in additional or unofficial payments/gifts to secure the contract?” To reduce noise,
we use the average value of bribes in a given industry and country. Robust clustered standard
errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
41
Table 4: Effect of Manager’s Time Spent with Officials on Strength of Spillovers and
Revenue Efficiency
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERV OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Panel A: Industry Level Linkages
∆ Backward 0.060 0.131** -0.007 0.086 0.041 0.014 0.101**
(0.039) (0.057) (0.057) (0.060) (0.072) (0.073) (0.049)
∆ Forward 0.044 0.025 0.064 0.021 0.155* 0.122 0.018
(0.036) (0.051) (0.050) (0.053) (0.080) (0.085) (0.039)
∆ Horizontal 0.025 0.055** 0.002 0.024 0.050 0.097*** -0.002
(0.017) (0.023) (0.023) (0.025) (0.032) (0.033) (0.020)
∆ Backward * ∆Manager’s time -0.547 -0.239 -1.525* -0.837 -0.623 -1.875* 0.240
(0.489) (0.682) (0.789) (1.029) (0.880) (1.016) (0.635)
∆ Forward * ∆Manager’s time 0.415 0.592 0.627 -0.896 1.480 1.945 0.144
(0.444) (0.512) (0.736) (0.978) (1.201) (1.192) (0.490)
∆ Horizontal *∆Manager’s time 0.132 0.632** -0.270 0.143 0.003 0.814** -0.149
(0.299) (0.307) (0.395) (0.426) (0.599) (0.388) (0.356)
∆ Manager’s time 0.014 0.057 -0.035 0.245** -0.139 0.011 0.031
(0.065) (0.096) (0.089) (0.123) (0.096) (0.131) (0.075)
Observations 4981 1714 3267 1975 2293 1264 3717
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Panel B: Firm Level Linkages
Sales to MNEs 0.036** 0.036* 0.034 0.037 0.027 0.038 0.036*
(0.016) (0.020) (0.026) (0.026) (0.027) (0.025) (0.020)
Exports 0.061*** 0.035 0.041 0.059*** 0.069** 0.083** 0.048**
(0.018) (0.024) (0.029) (0.022) (0.030) (0.033) (0.022)
Imports -0.009 0.018 -0.017 0.000 -0.016 0.003 -0.009
(0.010) (0.017) (0.012) (0.016) (0.014) (0.020) (0.011)
SMNEs * ∆Manager’s time -0.322 -0.426* -0.192 0.007 -0.771* -0.664 -0.116
(0.249) (0.251) (0.509) (0.453) (0.453) (0.448) (0.293)
Exports * ∆Manager’s time 0.117 0.042 -0.436 -0.100 -0.239 0.281 -0.062
(0.255) (0.301) (0.476) (0.332) (0.495) (0.440) (0.297)
Imports *∆Manager’s time -0.005 0.124 -0.012 0.361 -0.259 0.300 -0.032
(0.152) (0.254) (0.195) (0.259) (0.203) (0.323) (0.171)
∆ Manager’s time 0.021 0.068 -0.019 0.053 -0.013 -0.009 0.056
(0.079) (0.112) (0.113) (0.159) (0.115) (0.149) (0.094)
Observations 4981 1714 3267 1975 2293 1264 3717
R-squared 0.60 0.61 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated spillover effects on revenue efficiency using the
specification in equation (8) in the paper. Bureaucratic pressure is measured as the share of
management’s time spent on dealing with officials. To reduce noise, we use the average value of
manager’s time spent with officials in a given industry and country. Robust clustered standard
errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
42
Table 5. Spillover Effects on Revenue Efficiency Using the Cobb-Douglas Function by
Region.
CIS BALT CEE SEE
(1) (2) (3) (4)
∆ Backward 0.139 0.127 0.005 0.062
(0.094) (0.098) (0.075) (0.058)
∆ Forward 0.035 0.193 0.053 0.016
(0.075) (0.122) (0.074) (0.062)
∆ Horizontal -0.019 0.003 -0.015 0.083**
(0.047) (0.037) (0.024) (0.035)
Share of sales to MNEs 0.058** 0.139 0.080*** 0.026
(0.026) (0.136) (0.019) (0.022)
Export share 0.083** 0.020 0.083*** 0.014
(0.039) (0.051) (0.023) (0.022)
Import share 0.002 0.041* -0.008 -0.030**
(0.016) (0.024) (0.013) (0.014)
Compete in national markets 0.017 0.048** 0.014 0.029***
(0.012) (0.020) (0.010) (0.010)
Elasticity of demand
Low -0.032** -0.045** -0.026** -0.021*
(0.013) (0.022) (0.013) (0.012)
Medium -0.042** -0.052 -0.046*** -0.015
(0.017) (0.034) (0.013) (0.014)
High -0.031** -0.054** -0.045*** -0.044***
(0.014) (0.024) (0.012) (0.014)
Observations 1463 430 1711 1377
R-squared 0.61 0.64 0.54 0.63
Note: Regions are defined as follows: CIS (Georgia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine),
Baltic (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), CEE (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), and SEE
(Albania, Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, Yugoslavia, Slovenia). Firms of all types are included in
the regression. See note to Table 1 for further details.
43
Table 6: Effect of Whole/Partial Foreign Ownership and Source of FDI on Spillovers
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERV OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Panel A
∆ Backward (whole) 0.048 0.084 0.009 0.081 0.036 0.064 0.057
(0.048) (0.073) (0.067) (0.070) (0.080) (0.090) (0.059)
∆ Backward (partial) 0.134** 0.215** 0.097 0.124 0.160 0.064 0.178**
(0.067) (0.105) (0.088) (0.113) (0.100) (0.122) (0.082)
∆ Forward (whole) 0.025 0.075 0.004 -0.030 0.084 0.073 0.016
(0.040) (0.062) (0.054) (0.058) (0.081) (0.103) (0.043)
∆ Forward (partial) 0.045 -0.080 0.090 0.190 0.108 0.095 0.006
(0.064) (0.098) (0.086) (0.129) (0.122) (0.128) (0.075)
∆ Horizontal (whole) 0.006 0.041 -0.023 0.015 0.013 0.098* -0.031
(0.028) (0.043) (0.038) (0.043) (0.053) (0.053) (0.033)
∆ Horizontal (partial) 0.021 0.025 0.012 0.000 0.061* 0.047 0.013
(0.019) (0.026) (0.025) (0.025) (0.036) (0.038) (0.022)
Observations 4980 1713 3267 1975 2293 1264 3716
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Panel B
∆ Backward (OECD) 0.047 0.108 0.041 0.061 0.124* -0.025 0.107*
(0.047) (0.070) (0.067) (0.075) (0.075) (0.079) (0.060)
∆ Backward (Non-OECD) 0.120** 0.216** 0.014 0.109 -0.014 0.269** 0.085
(0.050) (0.085) (0.066) (0.070) (0.115) (0.106) (0.058)
∆ Forward (OECD) 0.024 -0.053 0.060 0.079 0.037 0.033 0.005
(0.047) (0.074) (0.061) (0.076) (0.087) (0.090) (0.055)
∆ Forward (Non-OECD) 0.058 0.113* 0.017 -0.028 0.209** 0.300** 0.021
(0.048) (0.068) (0.065) (0.072) (0.101) (0.133) (0.050)
∆ Horizontal (OECD) 0.015 0.024 0.008 0.013 0.047 0.035 0.008
(0.016) (0.023) (0.022) (0.023) (0.036) (0.031) (0.019)
∆ Horizontal (Non-OECD) 0.033 0.053 0.015 -0.018 0.046 0.150*** -0.004
(0.027) (0.039) (0.037) (0.038) (0.060) (0.055) (0.033)
Observations 4979 1712 3267 1975 2293 1264 3715
R-squared 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated effects on revenue efficiency using a Cobb-Douglas
production function, where the dependent variables is growth rate of sales revenues; the
independent variables include three inputs (utilization adjusted capital, number of employees,
materials), country and industry fixed effects, and the reported variables. The set of other
controls is identical to the set used in Table 1. Panel A: The variables measuring changes in
forward, backward and horizontal linkages are recalculated to differentiate the share of output in
industry j produced by wholly-owned v. partially-owned foreign firms. Panel B: The variables
measuring changes in forward, backward and horizontal linkages have been recalculated to
differentiate the share of output in industry j produced by foreign firms with an OECD origin v.
foreign firms with a non-OECD origin. Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; *
significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%.
44
Table 7. Effect of Distance from the Frontier on the Strength of Spillovers
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERV OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Panel A
∆ Backward 0.205* 0.260 0.171 0.212 0.153 0.477** 0.086
(0.124) (0.183) (0.174) (0.158) (0.261) (0.236) (0.145)
∆ Forward 0.004 0.089 -0.109 0.005 0.004 0.025 -0.032
(0.114) (0.166) (0.157) (0.163) (0.257) (0.225) (0.130)
∆ Horizontal 0.056 0.017 0.068 0.123* 0.141 0.130 0.015
(0.050) (0.064) (0.077) (0.067) (0.108) (0.097) (0.059)
∆ Backward * Distance -0.043 -0.040 -0.043 -0.041 -0.024 -0.142* 0.006
(0.041) (0.059) (0.059) (0.056) (0.081) (0.074) (0.050)
∆ Forward *Distance 0.009 -0.027 0.049 0.008 0.023 0.016 0.017
(0.038) (0.056) (0.052) (0.057) (0.082) (0.072) (0.045)
∆ Horizontal * Distance -0.017 -0.001 -0.023 -0.046* -0.036 -0.033 -0.006
(0.018) (0.021) (0.027) (0.024) (0.039) (0.034) (0.021)
Distance -0.011*** -0.008 -0.010* -0.011* -0.019*** -0.008 -0.010**
(0.004) (0.006) (0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.008) (0.005)
Observations 4867 1655 3212 1939 2230 1235 3632
R-squared 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.58 0.58 0.62
Panel B: Firm Level Linkages
Sales to MNEs 0.050 0.014 0.091 0.117** -0.037 0.088 0.021
(0.036) (0.046) (0.063) (0.058) (0.074) (0.083) (0.041)
Exports 0.055 0.024 0.118* 0.059 0.111 0.019 0.077*
(0.036) (0.047) (0.063) (0.042) (0.123) (0.071) (0.044)
Imports -0.002 -0.017 0.016 -0.015 -0.007 -0.016 0.003
(0.024) (0.040) (0.030) (0.035) (0.037) (0.057) (0.026)
∆ SMNEs * Distance -0.000 0.017 -0.018 -0.033 0.032 -0.011 0.008
(0.014) (0.017) (0.026) (0.028) (0.024) (0.030) (0.017)
∆ Exports * Distance -0.002 0.003 -0.028 -0.003 -0.013 0.021 -0.015
(0.014) (0.019) (0.023) (0.019) (0.041) (0.025) (0.018)
∆ Imports * Distance -0.004 0.010 -0.013 0.001 -0.003 0.001 -0.005
(0.009) (0.015) (0.011) (0.014) (0.013) (0.020) (0.010)
Distance -0.008* -0.011 -0.003 -0.004 -0.019** -0.008 -0.009
(0.005) (0.008) (0.006) (0.007) (0.008) (0.010) (0.005)
Observations 4867 1655 3212 1939 2230 1235 3632
R-squared 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.58 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated spillover effects on revenue efficiency using the
specification in equation (8) in the paper. Distance is measured according to the Mahalanobis
metric using all foreign firms. See text for further details on the construction of this metric.
Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; ***
significant at 1%
45
Table 8. Effect of the Education on the Strength of Spillovers
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERV OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
Panel A: Industry Level Linkages
∆ Backward 0.067 0.103 0.035 0.103 0.103 0.201** 0.072
(0.046) (0.075) (0.062) (0.064) (0.081) (0.090) (0.056)
∆ Forward 0.047 0.023 0.062 0.048 0.078 -0.058 0.051
(0.043) (0.064) (0.058) (0.058) (0.086) (0.096) (0.049)
∆ Horizontal 0.028 0.003 0.027 0.011 0.062 0.053 0.015
(0.021) (0.031) (0.028) (0.028) (0.046) (0.040) (0.025)
∆ Backward * Edu 0.044 0.224 0.008 -0.107 -0.110 -0.664* 0.107
(0.120) (0.237) (0.139) (0.160) (0.200) (0.367) (0.131)
∆ Forward * Edu -0.049 -0.005 -0.093 -0.072 0.082 0.695** -0.127
(0.105) (0.145) (0.131) (0.135) (0.194) (0.311) (0.115)
∆ Horizontal * Edu -0.042 0.098 -0.075 -0.018 -0.042 0.015 -0.041
(0.049) (0.099) (0.058) (0.082) (0.074) (0.120) (0.053)
Edu 0.028** -0.003 0.045*** 0.032 0.040** 0.000 0.035***
(0.012) (0.025) (0.013) (0.019) (0.016) (0.032) (0.013)
Observations 4929 1678 3251 1957 2265 1244 3685
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Panel B: Firm Level Linkages
Sales to MNEs 0.041** 0.025 0.045 0.046* 0.035 0.035 0.036
(0.018) (0.023) (0.028) (0.028) (0.034) (0.031) (0.022)
Exports 0.077*** 0.059** 0.056* 0.064*** 0.110** 0.080** 0.070***
(0.019) (0.026) (0.030) (0.021) (0.045) (0.036) (0.022)
Imports -0.020* 0.014 -0.032** -0.012 -0.020 -0.026 -0.018
(0.011) (0.020) (0.013) (0.017) (0.017) (0.025) (0.012)
SMNEs * Edu 0.035 0.137** -0.029 -0.044 0.044 0.129 0.022
(0.051) (0.066) (0.068) (0.144) (0.060) (0.114) (0.057)
Exports * Edu -0.089* -0.140 -0.022 -0.015 -0.100 -0.051 -0.084
(0.054) (0.091) (0.067) (0.065) (0.077) (0.134) (0.060)
Imports * Edu 0.024 -0.016 0.040 -0.021 0.019 0.055 0.020
(0.027) (0.064) (0.031) (0.053) (0.036) (0.072) (0.030)
Edu 0.026* -0.001 0.039** 0.042 0.041** -0.008 0.034**
(0.014) (0.033) (0.016) (0.026) (0.019) (0.040) (0.015)
Observations 4929 1678 3251 1957 2265 1244 3685
R-squared 0.60 0.62 0.60 0.65 0.57 0.57 0.62
Note: The table reports the estimated spillover effects on revenue efficiency using the
specification in equation (8) in the paper. Edu is the share of worker with higher education
(university education). Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; **
significant at 5%; *** significant at 1%
46
Appendix
In this appendix we describe the sampling frame of the BEEPs. As mentioned in
the main text, the sampling frames of the 2002 and 2005 BEEPS are very similar. Both
were designed to have the following general targeted distributional criteria:
• Coverage of countries: Both the 2002 and 2005 surveys were to be administered to 28
transition economies: 16 from CEEE (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria,
Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, FR Yugoslavia, FYROM, Hungary, Latvia,
Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovak Republic, Slovenia and Turkey) and 12 from the
CIS (Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Moldova,
Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan). In neither year could the
survey be administered in Turkmenistan.
• Sector: In each country, the sectoral composition of the sample in terms of
manufacturing23
versus services24
was to be determined by their relative contribution
to GDP. Firms that operate in sectors subject to government price regulation and
prudential supervision, such as banking, electric power, rail transport, and water and
waste water, were to be excluded from the sample
• Size: At least 10% of the sample was to be in the small and 10% in the large size
categories.25
Firms with only one employee or more than 10,000 employees were to
be excluded.
• Ownership: At least 10% of the firms were to have foreign control and 10% state
control, based on more than 50% shareholding.
• Exporters: At least 10% of the firms were to be exporters, meaning that 20% or more
of total sales is exported.
• Location: At least 10% of firms were to be in the category “small city/countryside”
(Population under 50,000 inhabitants).
In 2005, the survey instrument was administered to an additional 1,700
manufacturing enterprises in seven countries: Kazakhstan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Poland,
Hungary, Romania and Moldova. This sample was to be distributed between at least two
major industrial regions within each country and distributed evenly among manufacturing
enterprises operating within three sectors: garments, food processing and metal and
23
Manufacturing includes mining and quarrying, construction, manufacturing and agro-processing
24
Services includes: Transportation, storage and communications; Wholesale, retail, repairs; Real estate,
business services; Hotels and restaurants; Other community, social and personal activities; and Commerce.
25
Small=2-49 employees, Medium=50-249, Large=250-9,999.
47
machinery. The aim was to keep the sectoral composition as similar as possible across
countries.26
The original 2005 data base is comprised of a total of 7,942 firms, with 200-600
firms per country. The share of firms in services ranged from 50% to 65% across the 27
countries. Between two-thirds and three-quarters of the firms have less than 50
employees. Approximately 10% of the firms are foreign owned and another 10% are
state owned. The share of firms that export more than 20% of their output varies
tremendously across these countries: from 5% in Kazakhstan to 30% in Slovenia.
26
Specifically, the sectors were to be constant at the 3-digit ISIC code. However, if it was not possible to
obtain enough observations to complete the sampling overlay while limiting it to the 3-digit ISIC code, then
firms could be selected from the sectors defined at the 2-digit level.
48
APPENDIX TABLES
49
Table A1: Sources and Years of Input-Output Tables
Year Country Source
2000 Albania Mark Horrige27
2000 Bulgaria National statistical office
1999 Croatia National statistical office
1999 Czech Republic CR National Statistical Yearbook
1997 Estonia Eurostat
2004 Georgia National statistical office
1998 Hungary Eurostat
2002 Kazakhstan P. Hare and A. Naumov (2005, p 28)
1998 Latvia National statistical office
2001 Lithuania National statistical office
2000 Poland Eurostat
2002 Romania National statistical office
2003 Russia National statistical office
2005 Serbia National statistical office
2000 Slovakia National statistical office
2001 Slovenia Eurostat
2003 Ukraine National statistical office
Note: All input-output tables were at the NACE 2-digit level except for Kazakhstan and
Russia, which were at the 1-digit level and were converted to 2-digit using weights
constructed from data on output by industries.
27
Mark Horrige, “Albania Input-Output Table” GTAP/USAID. Table downloaded from
http://www.monash.edu.au/policy/archivep.htm.
50
Table A2. Spillover Effects on Revenue Efficiency Using Cobb-Douglas Production
Function: Panel sample
ALL
FIRMS
LARGE SMALL MNFG SERVICES OLD NEW
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)
∆ Backward 0.102 0.130 0.065 0.035 0.161 0.033 0.161*
(0.079) (0.119) (0.119) (0.129) (0.122) (0.170) (0.094)
∆ Forward -0.014 -0.133 0.078 -0.211* 0.115 -0.065 0.016
(0.076) (0.105) (0.107) (0.126) (0.148) (0.193) (0.091)
∆ Horizontal -0.002 0.064 -0.063 0.032 0.102 0.020 -0.003
(0.046) (0.052) (0.068) (0.079) (0.073) (0.072) (0.060)
Share of sales to MNEs 0.050 0.003 0.080* -0.008 0.060 0.042 0.053
(0.032) (0.058) (0.043) (0.058) (0.047) (0.069) (0.037)
Export share 0.030 0.034 -0.024 -0.049 0.065 -0.006 0.064
(0.035) (0.054) (0.066) (0.055) (0.055) (0.056) (0.056)
Import share 0.015 0.034 0.014 0.007 0.029 -0.006 0.018
(0.019) (0.037) (0.025) (0.039) (0.028) (0.040) (0.023)
Compete in national markets 0.022 -0.004 0.036* 0.049 0.026 0.026 0.012
(0.016) (0.029) (0.021) (0.037) (0.022) (0.032) (0.018)
Elasticity of demand
Low -0.016 -0.015 -0.027 0.061 -0.034 -0.006 -0.020
(0.019) (0.029) (0.026) (0.046) (0.024) (0.037) (0.024)
Medium -0.032 -0.031 -0.033 0.025 -0.055* 0.041 -0.044
(0.023) (0.040) (0.029) (0.060) (0.030) (0.048) (0.028)
High -0.028 -0.045 -0.020 0.049 -0.055* 0.006 -0.024
(0.021) (0.039) (0.026) (0.053) (0.028) (0.042) (0.025)
Observations 773 296 477 180 458 222 551
R-squared 0.64 0.68 0.63 0.70 0.61 0.69 0.65
Note: The sample includes only firms present in both 2002 and 2005 surveys. The table reports
the estimated effects on revenue efficiency using a Cobb-Douglas function, where the dependent
variables is growth rate of sales revenues; the independent variables include the growth rate of
three inputs (utilization adjusted capital, number of employees and materials), country and
industry fixed effects, and the reported variables. See text for definition of variables. Large firms
are defined as firms with more than 30 employees. MNFG = manufacturing firms according to
NACE classification. OLD firms are defined as firms established before 1991. NEW firms are
established in 1991 or after 1991. Benchmark group for the elasticity of demand is “inelastic”.
Robust clustered standard errors in parentheses; * significant at 10%; ** significant at 5%; ***
significant at 1%
51
Table A3. Descriptive Statistics
ALL LARGE SMALL MNFG SERVICES OLD NEW
Variable
mean sd mean sd mean sd mean sd mean sd mean sd mean sd
∆ Backward -0.0161 0.1191 -0.0097 0.1289 -0.0195 0.1134 -0.0216 0.1324 -0.0125 0.1097 -0.0100 0.1336 -0.0182 0.1137
∆ Forward -0.0073 0.1316 -0.0003 0.1400 -0.0109 0.1269 0.0009
le
0.1443 -0.0143 0.1213 -0.0003 0.1331 -0.0096 0.1311
∆ Horizontal -0.0367 0.1964 -0.0375 0.2006 -0.0363 0.1941 -0.0522 0.2150 -0.0364 0.1705 -0.0430 0.2004 -0.0346 0.1950
Share of sales to MNEs 0.0566 0.1766 0.0850 0.2131 0.0416 0.1520 0.0723 0.2002 0.0438 0.1557 0.0630 0.1839 0.0544 0.1740
Export share 0.0684 0.1878 0.1283 0.2499 0.0369 0.1348 0.1081 0.2327 0.0471 0.1543 0.1053 0.2252 0.0558 0.1715
Import share 0.2588 0.3592 0.2656 0.3346 0.2553 0.3715 0.2797 0.3568 0.2507 0.3692 0.2539 0.3421 0.2605 0.3649
Compete in national markets 0.5103 0.4999 0.6307 0.4828 0.4472 0.4973 0.6086 0.4882 0.4313 0.4954 0.6210 0.4853 0.4727 0.4993
Elasticity of demand
Inelastic 0.2218 0.4155 0.2421 0.4284 0.2112 0.4082 0.1949 0.3962 0.2481 0.4319 0.2350 0.4240 0.2174 0.4125
Low 0.3124 0.4635 0.3314 0.4708 0.3024 0.4594 0.3225 0.4676 0.3031 0.4597 0.2967 0.4570 0.3177 0.4657
Medium 0.1775 0.3821 0.1692 0.3750 0.1818 0.3858 0.1858 0.3891 0.1736 0.3788 0.1733 0.3786 0.1789 0.3833
High 0.2883 0.4530 0.2573 0.4373 0.3046 0.4603 0.2967 0.4569 0.2752 0.4467 0.2951 0.4563 0.2860 0.4519
lnKU 0.0981 0.2464 0.1253 0.2509 0.0838 0.2428 0.1025 0.2595 0.0869 0.2324 0.0640 0.2189 0.1097 0.2540
lnM 0.0795 0.2243 0.1087 0.2198 0.0642 0.2252 0.0833 0.2372 0.0658 0.2114 0.0515 0.2052 0.0891 0.2297
lnL 0.0730 0.4649 0.1078 0.4581 0.0547 0.4675 0.0552 0.4602 0.0783 0.4533 -0.0560 0.3775 0.1169 0.4834
Edu 0.2488 0.2827 0.2297 0.2374 0.2586 0.3031 0.1884 0.2211 0.3116 0.3239 0.2123 0.2407 0.2611 0.2946
∆ Bribe -0.0120 0.0224 -0.0123 0.0237 -0.0118 0.0217 -0.0140 0.0208 -0.0105 0.0242 -0.0106 0.0225 -0.0125 0.0223
∆ Manager’s time -0.0357 0.0480 -0.0363 0.0533 -0.0354 0.0450 -0.0386 0.0407 -0.0335 0.0501 -0.0361 0.0500 -0.0356 0.0473
Distance
o
2.5699 0.8683 2.3970 0.9516 2.6590 0.8079 2.2877 0.8063 2.7705 0.8336 2.5575 0.8904 2.5742 0.8608
Wh
∆ Backward -0.0077 0.0968 -0.0008 0.1017 -0.0113 0.0940 -0.0093 0.0975 -0.0069 0.0978 -0.0010 0.1044 -0.0100 0.0940
∆ Forward -0.0010 0.1040 0.0063 0.1096 -0.0048 0.1008 0.0110 0.1153 -0.0109 0.0983 0.0066 0.1043 -0.0036 0.1039
∆ Horizontal
rtial
-0.0135 0.1641 -0.0129 0.1621 -0.0139 0.1652 -0.0257 0.1690 -0.0155 0.1482 -0.0190 0.1704 -0.0117 0.1619
Pa
∆ Backward -0.0084 0.0568 -0.0088 0.0571 -0.0082 0.0567 -0.0123 0.0599 -0.0056 0.0567 -0.0090 0.0565 -0.0082 0.0569
∆ Forward -0.0063 0.0542 -0.0067 0.0585 -0.0061 0.0518 -0.0102 0.0490 -0.0033 0.0512 -0.0070 0.0535 -0.0061 0.0544
∆ Horizontal
CD
-0.0231 0.1074 -0.0245 0.1153 -0.0224 0.1030 -0.0265 0.1295 -0.0209 0.0912 -0.0240 0.1084 -0.0228 0.1071
OE
52
∆ Backward -0.0272 0.0923 -0.0232 0.1007 -0.0293 0.0876 -0.0379 0.1049 -0.0201 0.0847 -0.0291 0.1040 -0.0266 0.0880
∆ Forward -0.0157 0.0894 -0.0109 0.0910 -0.0183 0.0884 -0.0026 0.0939 -0.0265 0.0856 -0.0107 0.0892 -0.0175 0.0894
∆ Horizontal
CD
-0.0286 0.1771 -0.0309 0.1812 -0.0274 0.1749 -0.0525 0.2222 -0.0130 0.1287 -0.0420 0.1939 -0.0241 0.1708
Non-OE
∆ Backward 0.0111 0.0785 0.0136 0.0872 0.0098 0.0736 0.0163 0.0828 0.0076 0.0763 0.0191 0.0825 0.0084 0.0770
∆ Forward 0.0085 0.0915 0.0106 0.0969 0.0074 0.0885 0.0035 0.0984 0.0122 0.0891 0.0104 0.0864 0.0079 0.0932
∆ Horizontal -0.0081 0.1251 -0.0068 0.1273 -0.0088 0.1240 0.0002 0.1329 -0.0234 0.1110 -0.0010 0.1261 -0.0105 0.1247
N 4,981 1,714 3,267 1,975 2,293 1,264 3,717
53