MPE_AMEM: Final Project
Tomas Motl, Course for Masaryk University, Spring 2021
Setup
We start forecast in 2015Q1.
First, run just "plain forecast" = forecast without any shocks (expect the external
assumptions, they should always be there).
Second, identify the shocks that we should add to the forecast, based on your
understanding of what happened in Azerbaijan in 2015-2016.
Third, compare your forecast to reality. Iterate if necessary.
Output
Two parts: forecast and text.
Forecast = PDF report generated by the codes + Matlab figure comparing forecast and
historical data.
Text = approx 1.5 page explaining the rationale behind the text
About the text:
Audience is your macroeconomics teachers: do not know QPM, but understand
jargon and economics
I’ll provide examples in Study materials; you should not put so many numbers
and so much background, go for something similar but simpler (e.g. Master’s vs
Bachelor’s thesis)
Describe the whole forecast period - immediate shocks + long term trends
Avoid talking about technical model variables (gaps and trends), use normal
economic language
This is a test if you really understand what drives the numbers
 
Deadline May 31?