MACROECONOMICS I Anna Donina Lecture 1 February 18, 2022 © 2018 CENGAGE LEARNING®. MAY NOT BE SCANNED, COPIED OR DUPLICATED, OR POSTED TO A PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE WEBSITE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, EXCEPT FOR USE AS PERMITTED IN A LICENSE DISTRIBUTED WITH A CERTAIN PRODUCT OR SERVICE OR OTHERWISE ON A PASSWORD-PROTECTED WEBSITE OR SCHOOL-APPROVED 1 MACROECONOMICS I Lecturer: Anna Donina, Junior Researcher at CERGE-EI, Prague (anna.donina@cerge-ei.cz) Text-book: Mankiw, Principles of Economics/Macroeconomics (latest edition available) Lectures/Seminars: Friday 09:00 – 10:50 / 11:00 – 12:50 2 GRADING • Midterm exam (40%) • Project presentation (20%) • Final exam (40%) 5 ECONOMICS Microeconomics Study of how households and firms  Make decisions  Interact in markets Macroeconomics Study of economy-wide phenomena  Including inflation, unemployment, and economic growth 6 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS 7 © 2018 CENGAGE LEARNING®. MAY NOT BE SCANNED, COPIED OR DUPLICATED, OR POSTED TO A PUBLICLY ACCESSIBLE WEBSITE, IN WHOLE OR IN PART, EXCEPT FOR USE AS PERMITTED IN A LICENSE DISTRIBUTED WITH A CERTAIN PRODUCT OR SERVICE OR OTHERWISE ON A PASSWORD-PROTECTED WEBSITE OR SCHOOL-APPROVED PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS Principles of decision making • People face tradeoffs • The cost of any action is measured in terms of foregone opportunities • People respond to incentives • Rational people think at the margin 8 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS Principles of interactions among people • Trade can make everyone better off • Markets are usually a good way to organize economic activity • Government can potentially improve market outcomes if there is a market failure or if the market outcome is inequitable 9 PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICS Principles of the economy as a whole • Productivity is the ultimate source of living standards • Money growth is the ultimate source of inflation • Society faces a short-run tradeoff between inflation and unemployment 10 QUESTION • How would you measure/assess my economic health? • What information do you need to understand whether I am in good or bad economic situation? 11 13 LOOK FOR THE ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS • What is Gross Domestic Product (GDP)? • How is GDP related to a nation’s total income and spending? • What are the components of GDP? • How is GDP corrected for inflation? • Does GDP measure society’s well-being? INCOME AND EXPENDITURE Gross Domestic Product (GDP)  Measures total income of everyone in the economy  Also measures total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods and services Income equals expenditure  For the economy as a whole  Because every dollar a buyer spends is a dollar of income for the seller 14 THE CIRCULAR-FLOW DIAGRAM The Circular-Flow Diagram  Simple depiction of the macroeconomy  Illustrates GDP as spending, revenue, factor payments, and income Preliminaries  Factors of production are inputs like labor, land, capital, and natural resources.  Factor payments are payments to the factors of production (e.g., wages, rent). 15 THE CIRCULAR-FLOW DIAGRAM 16 Households: ▪ own the factors of production, sell/rent them to firms for income ▪ buy and consume goods & services HouseholdsFirms Firms: ▪ buy/hire factors of production, use them to produce goods and services ▪ sell goods & services THE CIRCULAR-FLOW DIAGRAM 17 Markets for Factors of Production HouseholdsFirms Income (=GDP)Wages, rent, profit (=GDP) Factors of production Labor, land, capital Spending (=GDP) G & S bought G & S sold Revenue (=GDP) Markets for Goods & Services THIS DIAGRAM OMITS The government  Collects taxes, buys goods and services The financial system  Matches savers’ supply of funds with borrowers’ demand for loans The foreign sector  Trades goods and services, financial assets, and currencies with the country’s residents 18 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 19 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS… …the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 20 Goods are valued at their market prices, so:  All goods measured in the same units ($ in the U.S.; CZK in CR)  Things that don’t have a market value are excluded, e.g., housework you do for yourself. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS… …the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 21  GDP includes all items produced in the economy and sold legally in markets  GDP excludes most items produced and sold illicitly. It also excludes most items that are produced and consumed at home. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS… …the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 22  Final goods: intended for the end user  Intermediate goods: used as components or ingredients in the production of other goods  GDP only includes final goods—they already embody the value of the intermediate goods used in their production. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS… …the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 23  GDP includes tangible goods (like cars, mountain bikes, beer)  and intangible services (cleaning, concerts, cell phone service).  GDP includes currently produced goods, not goods produced in the past. GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS… …the market value of all final goods & services produced within a country in a given period of time. 24  GDP measures the value of production that occurs within a country’s borders, whether done by its own citizens or by foreigners located there.  Usually a year or a quarter (3 months) GDP COMPONENTS Recall: GDP is total spending. Four components:  Consumption (C)  Investment (I)  Government Purchases (G)  Net Exports (NX) These components add up to GDP (denoted Y): Y = C + I + G + NX 25 CONSUMPTION (C) Consumption, C Total spending by households on goods and services Note on housing costs:  For renters, C includes rent payments.  For homeowners, C includes the imputed rental value of the house, but not the purchase price or mortgage payments  Not included in C: purchases of new housing 26 INVESTMENT (I) Investment, I Total spending on goods that will be used in the future to produce more goods  Business capital: business structures, equipment, and intellectual property products  Residential capital: landlord’s apartment building; a homeowner’s personal residence  Inventory accumulations: goods produced but not yet sold “Investment” does not mean the purchase of financial assets like stocks and bonds. 27 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES (G) Government purchases (G) All spending on the goods and services purchased by the government  At the federal, state, and local levels. Excludes transfer payments  Such as Social Security or unemployment insurance benefits.  They are not purchases of goods and services 28 NET EXPORTS (NX) Net exports, NX = exports – imports  Exports: foreign spending on the economy’s goods and services  Imports: are the portions of C, I, and G that are spent on goods and services produced abroad Adding up all the components of GDP gives: Y = C + I + G + NX 29 U.S. GDP AND ITS COMPONENTS, 2021 30 Billions % of GDP Per capita Y $22,993 100.0 $69,278 C 15,750 68.5 47,454 I 4,107 17.9 12,374 G 4,051 17.6 12,205 NX -915 -4.0 -2,757 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCECA: Table 1.1.5 https://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/POPTHM?cid=104 EXERCISE 1 GDP AND ITS COMPONENTS In each of the following cases, determine how much GDP and each of its components is affected (if at all). A. Marek spends czk 3000 to buy his girlfriend dinner at the finest restaurant in Brno. B. Roman spends czk 20000 on a new laptop to use in her publishing business. The laptop was built in China. C. Paulina spends czk 15000 on a computer to use in her editing business. She got last year’s model on sale for a great price from a local manufacturer. D. Škoda builds czk 50 billion worth of cars, but consumers only buy czk 47 billion worth of them. 32 EXERCISE 1 SOLUTIONS A. Marek spends czk 3000 to buy his girlfriend dinner at the finest restaurant in Brno. Consumption and GDP rise by czk 3000. B. Roman spends czk 20000 on a new laptop to use in her publishing business. The laptop was built in China. Investment rises by czk 20000, net exports fall by czk 20000, GDP is unchanged. 33 EXERCISE 1 SOLUTIONS C. Paulina spends czk 15000 on a computer to use in her editing business. She got last year’s model on sale for a great price from a local manufacturer. Current GDP and investment do not change, because the computer was built last year. D. Škoda builds czk 50 billion worth of cars, but consumers only buy czk 47 billion of them. Consumption rises by czk 47 billion, inventory investment rises by czk 3 billion, and GDP rises by czk 50 billion. 34 REAL VS NOMINAL GDP Total spending rises from one year to the next  Economy — producing a larger output of goods and services  And/or goods and services are being sold at higher prices Nominal GDP  Production of goods and services  Valued at current prices REAL VS NOMINAL GDP Nominal GDP  Values output using current prices  Not corrected for inflation Real GDP  Values output using the prices of a base year  Is corrected for inflation For the base year Nominal GDP = Real GDP 36 EXAMPLE Compute nominal GDP in each year: 2014: $10 x 400 + $2 x 1000 = $6,000 2015: $11 x 500 + $2.50 x 1100 = $8,250 2016: $12 x 600 + $3 x 1200 = $10,800 37 Pizza Latte year P Q P Q 2014 $10 400 $2.00 1000 2015 $11 500 $2.50 1100 2016 $12 600 $3.00 1200 37.5% Increase: 30.9% EXAMPLE Compute real GDP in each year, using 2014 as the base year: 2014: $10 x 400 + $2 x 1000 = $6,000 2015: $10 x 500 + $2 x 1100 = $7,200 2016: $10 x 600 + $2 x 1200 = $8,400 38 Pizza Latte year P Q P Q 2014 $10 400 $2.00 1000 2015 $11 500 $2.50 1100 2016 $12 600 $3.00 1200 20.0% Increase: 16.7% $10 $2.00 EXAMPLE In each year, • nominal GDP is measured using the (then) current prices. • real GDP is measured using constant prices from the base year (2014 in this example). 39 year Nominal GDP Real GDP 2014 $6000 $6000 2015 $8250 $7200 2016 $10,800 $8400 EXAMPLE The change in nominal GDP reflects both prices and quantities. The change in real GDP is the amount that GDP would change if prices were constant (i.e., if zero inflation). Hence, real GDP is corrected for inflation. 40 year Nominal GDP Real GDP 2014 $6000 $6000 2015 $8250 $7200 2016 $10,800 $8400 20.0% 16.7% 37.5% 30.9% NOMINAL AND REAL GDP IN THE U.S., 1980–2020 41 Real GDP (base year 2012) Nominal GDP THE GDP DEFLATOR GDP deflator  A measure of the overall level of prices. = 100 × 𝑛𝑜𝑚𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃 𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑙 𝐺𝐷𝑃  Measures the current level of prices relative to the level of prices in the base year Economy’s inflation rate  Compute the percentage increase in the GDP deflator from one year to the next 42 EXAMPLE Compute the GDP deflator in each year: 2014: 100 x (6000/6000) = 100 2015: 100 x (8250/7200) = 114.6 2016: 100 x (10,800/8400) = 128.6 43 year Nominal GDP Real GDP GDP Deflator 2014 $6000 $6000 2015 $8250 $7200 2016 $10,800 $8400 100.0 114.6 128.6 14.6% 12.2% ACTIVE LEARNING 2 Use the above data to solve these problems: A. Compute nominal GDP in 2014. B. Compute real GDP in 2015. C. Compute the GDP deflator in 2016. 44 2014 (base year) 2015 2016 P Q P Q P Q Good A $30 900 $31 1000 $36 1050 Good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205 ACTIVE LEARNING 2 A. Compute nominal GDP in 2014. $30 x 900 + $100 x 192 = $46,200 B. Compute real GDP in 2015. $30 x 1000 + $100 x 200 = $50,000 45 2014 (base year) 2015 2016 P Q P Q P Q Good A $30 900 $31 1000 $36 1050 Good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205 ACTIVE LEARNING 2 C. Compute the GDP deflator in 2016. Nom GDP = $36 x 1050 + $100 x 205 = $58,300 Real GDP = $30 x 1050 + $100 x 205 = $52,000 GDP deflator = 100 x (Nom GDP)/(Real GDP) = 100 x ($58,300)/($52,000) = 112.1 46 2014 (base year) 2015 2016 P Q P Q P Q Good A $30 900 $31 1000 $36 1050 Good B $100 192 $102 200 $100 205 GDP AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING Real GDP per capita  Main indicator of the average person’s standard of living But GDP is not a perfect measure of well-being. Why? 47 GDP DOES NOT VALUE:  The quality of the environment/culture/education  Health of children  Leisure time  Non-market activity, such as the childcare a parent provides at home  An equitable distribution of income 49 THEN WHY DO WE CARE ABOUT GDP? Having a large GDP enables a country to afford  Better schools, a cleaner environment, health care, etc. Many indicators of the quality of life are positively correlated with GDP. For example… 50 GDP AND LIFE EXPECTANCY IN 12 COUNTRIES 51 GDP AND AVERAGE SCHOOLING IN 12 COUNTRIES 52 GDP AND OVERALL LIFE SATISFACTION (0 TO 10 SCALE) IN 12 COUNTRIES 53 SUMMARY • GDP measures a country’s total income and expenditure. • The four spending components of GDP include: Consumption, Investment, Government Purchases, and Net Exports. • Nominal GDP is measured using current prices. Real GDP is measured using the prices of a constant base year and is corrected for inflation. • GDP is the main indicator of a country’s economic wellbeing, even though it is not perfect. 54