Derivation of Gali’s Basic Model Based on great lectures by professor Jordi Gali on Barcelona Macroeconomic Summer School 2011. The aim of these notes is to provide me with step by step, fool-proof derivation of basic New Keynesian model and related analysis of monetary policy, before I forget it all. All of this can be found in Jordi Gali’s textbook Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle: An Introduction to the New Keynesian Framework. These notes are more descriptive as to the derivation of equations, but far less descriptive in other ways. Do read the textbook. Intro - evidence for NK model basics In the first chapter of the textbook textbook, there is empirical motivation for NK models. Everyone should read it first. The basic New Keynesian model consists of three equations: • New Keynesian Phillips Curve, which links the inflation to the output gap πt = βEt{πt+1} + κyt (1) • Dynamic IS equation, which links the output gap to the interest rate yt = − 1 σ (it − Et{πt+1} − rn t ) + Et{yt+1} (2) • and some rule for interest rate, for example the Taylor rule: it = ρ + φππt + φyyt + vt (3) Here variables denoted by ∼ stand for the log deviation of variable from its natural level, that is the level that would prevail in the absence of nominal rigidities. Variables denoted by a hat are the log deviations from steady state. The ”natural” variables are denoted by superscript n, so that e.g. rn t is the natural rate of interest. 1 1 Households The representative household solves standard problem max E0 ∞ t=0 βt C1−σ t 1 − σ − N1+ϕ t 1 + ϕ where Ct = 1 0 Ct(i)1−1 ε ε 1−ε subject to 1 0 Pt(i)Ct(i)di + QtBt ≤ Bt−1 + WtNt + Dt and solvency constraint lim t→∞ Bt ≥ 0 Dt is any lump-sum income the household gets, such as profits, taxes, transfers etc. We also need some initial condition for Bt−1. 1.1 Optimal allocation of expenditures The household consumes continuum of goods indexed by i. To maximize utility, the household solves max 1 0 Ct(i)1−1 ε ε ε−1 while expenditures are given by 1 0 Pt(i)Ct(i)di = Zt Lagrangian L = 1 0 Ct(i)1−1 ε di ε ε−1 − λ 1 0 Pt(i)Ct(i)di − Zt FOCs of the Lagrangian wrt to Ct(i) are C−1 t Ct(i)−1 ε Pt(i) = λ 2 Combining two together, we get Pt(i) Pt(j) −ε = Ct(i) Ct(j) We can plug this into the constraint (with index j, plugging for Ct(j)) 1 0 Pt(j) Pt(j)−ε Pt(i)−ε Ct(i)dj = Zt Taking all that does not depend on j out of the integral gives Ct(i) = ZtPt(i)ε 1 1 0 Pt(j)1−ε Using the definition of the price index Pt = 1 0 Pt(j)1−ε 1 1−ε we can rewrite the last term in the previous equation Ct(i) = Zt Pt Pt(i) Pt −ε This expression can be inserted into the definition of Ct to get Ct = 1 0 Zt Pt ε−1 ε Pt(i) Pt 1−ε ε ε−1 Ct = Zt Pt 1 0 Pt(i)1−ε diPε−1 t ε ε−1 CtPt = Zt P (1−ε)+(ε−1) t ε ε−1 CtPt = Zt CtPt = 1 0 Ct(i)Pt(i)di when we again used the definition of price index in the second step (third equation). Finally, we can combine the two above results to get Ct(i) = Pt(i) Pt −ε Ct 3 1.2 Optimality conditions By setting up Lagrangean of the household problem, we derive following intertemporal condition (using e.g. derivatives wrt to Ct and Ct+1): Qt Pt C−σ t = βEt{C−σ t+1 1 Pt+1 } Now define Qt = exp{−it}, it is the log of nominal interest rate, because Qt is the price of one-period bond paying 1 unit of money in time t + 1 Qt = 1 1 + it . Then define β = exp{−ρ} where ρ is the discount rate and β = 1 1 + ρ , and πt = pt − pt−1, where pt = log Pt. From now on, small case letters will denote logs of variables denoted by capital letters. We will log-linearize the intertemporal condition. For log-linearization of equations with expectations, there is a trick. Remove expectations, take logs and then put the expectations back. This holds up to a first approximation. We get ct = Etct+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ) This equation is the Euler equation and will result into IS curve. Intratemporal condition (derived by using derivatives wrt to Ct and Lt) in logs is wt − pt = σct + ϕnt = mrst. and this equation will provide household labor supply. Notice that while shifts in wt results in movement along the labor supply curve, shifts in ct move the whole curve. 2 Firms There is a [0; 1] continuum of monopolistically competitive firms, each produces own differentiated good. Firms share production technology Yt(i) = AtNt(i). 4 A representative firm maximizes the present value of their future profits conditional on its inability to reset price for next k periods max P∗ t ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+k (P∗ t Yt+k,t − Xt+k(Yt+k,t))} where X is the cost function1 , Yt+k,t is explained below, P∗ t is the new, optimal price, θ is the probability of not being able to reset price in one period and Qt,t+k < 1 is the stochastic discount factor (explained below). The future demand in period t + k conditional on price set in period t is derived from household optimization: Yt+k,t = Ct+k P∗ t Pt+k −ε On Stochastic Discounting Let’s briefly examine Qt,t+k. Think about an asset that pays Dt+k in period t + k. In period t, it is bought for price Qt. Household in period t gives up utility equal to Qt Pt Uc,t and gains utility in period t + k equal to βk EtUc,t+k Dt+k Pt+k Therefore the price of the asset is Qt = βk Et{ Uc,t+k Uc,t Pt Pt+k Dt+k} = Et{Qt,t+kDt,t+k} and stochastic discount factor for asset bought at time t and maturing at time t + k is Qt,t+k = βk Ct+k Ct σ Pt Pt+k (4) 1 The production function does not enter the model explicitly, but it is implicitly present here. 5 Let’s continue with the problem of the firm. FOC wrt to P∗ t is ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+k (1 − ε)Yt+k,t + εΨt+k(Yt+k,t) Yt+k,t P∗ t } = 0 ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t (1 − ε) + εΨt+k 1 P∗ t } = 0 ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t ((1 − ε)P∗ t + εΨt+k)} = 0 ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t P∗ t − ε ε − 1 Ψt+k } = 0 ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t (P∗ t − Mup Ψt+k)} = 0 We denote Mup = ε ε−1 the desired markup of price over the nominal marginal costs Ψ2 . That means that the firms wants to set price such that it brings it exactly this markup over nominal marginal cost, because this markup maximizes profit. The above equation is in terms of variables that do not have well defined steady state, namely P∗ t and Qt+k,t. We express it in terms of more convenient variables. First, divide by Pt−1 ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t P∗ t Pt−1 − Mup MCt+kΠt+k,t−1 } = 0 where MC are real marginal costs and Πt+k,t−1 = Pt+k Pt−1 is gross inflation between period t − 1 and period t + k. Consider this equation in zero inflation steady state (we could consider other steady states, but algebra is much simpler here and nothing fundamental changes). In steady state, it must be that P∗ t Pt−1 = 1 and Πt+k,t−1 = 1, so that MC = 1 Mup . 2 For simplicity, I will simplify Ψt+k(Yt+k,t) to just Ψt+k. 6 Because both MC and Mup are fixed numbers, this always holds. From now on, letters without subscript will denote steady state values of variables. Similarly, from equation (4) it follows that in steady state Qt+k,t = βk . 2.1 Log-linearizing Phillips Curve First, we use the ”e to the logs” trick: P∗ t Pt−1 = elog P∗ t −log Pt−1 = ep∗ t −pt−1 Next, we realize that because Mup = 1 MC , then Mup MCt+k = MCt+k MC which in logs is the deviation of MCt+k from steady state. This deviation is denoted by mct+k. Now rewrite the FOC in this way: ∞ k=0 θk Et{Qt,t+kYt+k,t ep∗ t −pt−1 − emct+k ept+k−pt−1 } = 0. The term in parentheses evaluates in steady state to zero. This is convenient because now we will make first order Taylor approximation and we do not have to care about terms wrt to Qt,t+k and Yt+k,t, as they will always be zero3 : ∞ k=0 θk βk EtY [1 (p∗ t − pt−1 − 0) − 1 (mct+k − 0) − 1 (pt+k − pt−1 − 0)] = 0 ∞ k=0 θk βk EtY [p∗ t − mct+k − pt+k] = 0 3 To be precise, they will always be something × term in parentheses = something × 0 = 0. 7 The zeros stand for the SS value of the exponents. Now we rearrange, denote µ = log Mup , realize that mc = log MC = log 1 Mup = −µ, denote log nominal marginal costs ψt = mct + pt and sum the geometric series: ∞ k=0 (θβ)k p∗ t = Et ∞ k=0 (θβ)k [mct+k + pt+k] 1 1 − βθ p∗ t = Et ∞ k=0 (θβ)k [mct+k + pt+k] 1 1 − βθ p∗ t = Et ∞ k=0 (θβ)k [mct+k − mc + pt+k] 1 1 − βθ p∗ t = Et ∞ k=0 (θβ)k [mct+k + µ + pt+k] p∗ t = 1 − βθ 1 − βθ µ + (1 − βθ) ∞ k=0 (θβ)k Etψt+k This equation can be interpreted so that the firm sets the price such that it equals the desired markup over the probability-and-discount-weighted sum of future nominal marginal costs. Notice that under flexible prices (θ = 0), this equation simplifies to p∗ t = pt = µ + ψt. We can define log average markup in the economy and notice that under flexible prices, the average markup is equal to desired markup: µt = pt − ψt = µ Now a small detour: we use the definition of price index to get Pt = θP1−ε t−1 + (1 − θ) (P∗ t )1−ε 1 1−ε 1 = θ Pt−1 Pt 1−ε + (1 − θ) P∗ t Pt 1−ε 1 1−ε We again take the first order Taylor expansion of this around zero inflation steady state and get pt = θpt−1 + (1 − θ)p∗ t . 8 End of detour. Lets get back to the equation for optimal p∗ t . It can be recursively written as p∗ t = βθp∗ t+1 + (1 − βθ)(µ + ψt). It is easy to iterate forward4 to verify that. Lets introduce the forward expectations lag operator5 L−1 t : L−1 t Xt = EtXt+1. Using the operator, we can write the previous as 1 − βθL−1 t p∗ t = (1 − βθ)(µ + ψt). Now combining with the Taylor expansion of the price index above, we get 1 − βθL−1 t pt = (1 − θ)(1 − βθ)(µ + ψt) + 1 − βθL−1 t θpt−1 and we get rid of the p∗ t . Cool. Now we expand and rearrange: 1 − βθL−1 t pt = (1 − θ)(1 − βθ)(µ + ψt) + 1 − βθL−1 t θpt−1 pt − βθEtpt+1 = θpt−1 − βθ2 pt + (1 − θ)(1 − βθ) [µ + ψt − pt + pt] pt − βθEtpt+1 = θpt−1 − βθ2 pt + (1 − θ)(1 − βθ) [µ − µt] + (1 − θ)(1 − βθ)pt pt − βθEtpt+1 = θpt−1 + (1 − θ)(1 − βθ) [µ − µt] + pt + θpt − βθpt θ(pt − pt−1) = βθ(pt+1 − pt) + (1 − θ)(1 − βθ) [µ − µt] πt = βπt+1 − (1 − θ)(1 − βθ) θ [µt − µ] πt = βEtπt+1 − λ [µt − µ] Where µt is average markup, under sticky prices different from desired markup µ. If we solve this forward for better intuition, we get very important result πt = −λ ∞ k=0 βk Et{µt+k − µ}. 4 Iterate forward = plug expression for p∗ t+1 on the right hand side, so that you get expression in p∗ t+2. Keep doing that till infinity, 5 We could do without the operator here, but it is cool and sexy and makes things easier. 9 The current inflation is entirely dependent on the expectations! Now we need to replace the markups with output. Using the production function Yt(i) = AtNt(i) we can derive the nominal marginal costs Ψt = Wt At . Recall that from household optimisation we get labor supply: wt − pt = σct + ϕnt. We know that Nt = 1 0 Nt(i)di = 1 0 Yt(i) At di = Yt At 1 0 Pt(i) Pt −ε di which in logs becomes nt = yt − at + dt. Now the first order Taylor expansion of dt ≡ log 1 0 Pt(i) Pt −ε di equals zero, so that up to a first approximation nt = yt − at. Now we write the average markup as µt = pt−(wt−at) = (pt−wt)+at = −σct−ϕnt+at = −σyt−ϕ(yt−at)+at = (1+ϕ)at−(σ+ϕ)yt Under flexible prices (where µ = µt) this becomes µ = (1 + ϕ)at − (σ + ϕ)yn t . Substracting, we get µt − µ = −(σ + ϕ)yt and now we can plug this into our Phillips curve and get its final form: πt = βEtπt+1 + λ(σ + ϕ)yt = βEtπt+1 + κyt For better intuition, solve this forward to get πt = κ ∞ k=0 βk Et{yt+k}. Now we can see that the current inflation is a function of expected future output gaps, but there is no role for past inflation in this model. 10 2.2 IS Curve Take the Euler equation with the market clearing condition ct = yt: yt = Etyt+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ) . Notice that this equation implies that under flexible prices the natural real rate of interest is yn t = Etyn t+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ) Et∆yn t+1 = 1 σ (rn t − ρ) rn t = ρ + σEt∆yn t+1 = ρ + σ(1 + ϕ) σ + ϕ Et{∆at+1} And now we get the dynamic IS equation yt − yn t + yn t = Etyt+1 − yn t+1 + yn t+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ) yt = Etyt+1 + ∆yn t+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ) yt = Etyt+1 − 1 σ it − Etπt+1 − ρ − σ∆yn t+1 yt = − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − rn t ) + Et(yt+1) Solving this forward (straightforward), we obtain yt = − 1 σ ∞ k=0 Et{it+k − πt+k − rn t+k} which again confirms how important are the expectations. The monetary policy is described by Taylor rule it = ρ + φππ + φyyt where yt = yt − y is the deviation from steady state. Introducing ρ makes this rule consistent with zero inflation steady state. We can now add the ad-hoc demand for money in the form mt − pt = yt − ηit, 11 which implies money growth ∆mt = πt + ∆yt + η∆it. The money rule here just tells us how much money the CB has to inject into the economy to obtain the desired interest rate. The textbook in chapter 3 has some impulse responses and comments on the model we just derived. Do read them. 3 Monetary policy 3.1 Efficient Natural Equilibrium We will now assume that government provides employment subsidy so that the price of labor is (1−τ)Wt, where τ = 1/ε, to correct for the monopolistic nature of the market. Thus we have yn t = ye t , where ye t denotes the efficient level of output that would be set by a benevolent social planner. Such a social planner would solve max U(Ct, Nt) s.t.Ct = AtNt FOCs of this problem are C−σ t = λ Nϕ t = λAt and together Cσ t Nϕ t = At plug for Ct from constraint and rearrange terms to get Ne t = A 1−σ σ+ϕ t which is the efficient level of employment. We can use this to get the efficient level of output Y e t = AtNe t = A 1+ϕ σ+ϕ t . 12 If we want to maximize utility, we want to minimize the deviations of the output from the efficient output. But looking at the forward iterated Phillips curve, this implies minimizing inflation, so we get following interest rate rule: it = rn t + φππt. However, because rn t is unobservable, this rule cannot be implemented in practice. We generally try to get the second-best policy. To evaluate various policies, we set up a loss function derived from the utility function6 : min E0 ∞ k=0 βt (σ + ϕ)y2 t + λ π2 t The unconditional expectations of one period utility losses are given by L = (σ + ϕ)var(yt) + λ var(πt). Turns out that Taylor rule with large weight on inflation is nearly optimal. 3.2 Inefficient Natural Equilibrium We now drop the assumption that ye t = yn t and introduce third output gap xt = yt − ye t . The PC now becomes πt = βEtπt+1 + κxt + ut, ut = κ(ye t − yn t ). Notice that since the ut is independent of the monetary policy (sometimes referred to as a cost-push shock), there is suddenly a trade-off in stabilizing inflation versus stabilizing output gap. That was not the case before. The IS curve becomes xt = − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − re t ) + Etxt+1 6 The derivation is quite technical. See appendix, chapter 4 of the textbook. 13 where re t = ρ + σEt∆ye t+1 = ρ + σ(σ + ϕ) 1 + ϕ Et∆at+1. Now the problem of monetary policy becomes min E0 ∞ k=0 βt αxx2 t + π2 t , αx = κ subject to the Phillips curve providing the trade-off πt = βEtπt+1 + κxt + ut. For simplicity, we will assume that ut follows AR(1) process: ut = ρuut−1 + εt. Again, once the CB solves the problem, it uses the IS curve to determine the interest rate xt = − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − re t ) + Etxt+1 Monetary Policy Under Discretion We now assume that the CB does not have any credibility and can not influence the expectations. Each period, the CB chooses (xt, πt) to minimize αxx2 t + π2 t , s.t.πt = κxt + vt, vt = βEtπt+1 + ut where vt is taken as given. FOCS yield 2αxxt + 2(κxt + vt)κ = 0 αxxt + κπt = 0 xt = − κ αx πt. We can plug this expression into the Phillips curve to get πt = βEtπt+1 − κ2 αx πt + ut = β αx αx + κ2 Etπt+1 + αx αx + κ2 ut. This is a first order differential equation for πt which we can solve forward to get πt = αx αx + κ2 ∞ k=0 β αx αx + κ2 k Etut+k. 14 We know that ut follows AR(1) process, so that Etut+1 = ρuut, so we can write πt = αx αx + κ2 ∞ k=0 ρuβ αx αx + κ2 k ut = αx αx + κ2 1 1 − αxβρu αx+κ2 = αxΨut. It follows from the FOC of the CB problem that xt = −κΨut. If we plug these results into a IS curve, we get an expression for the equilibrium interest rate it = re t + Ψ [κσ(1 − ρu) + αxρu] ut. This is NOT a MP rule! This is just expression for interest rate that would prevail in equilibrium. For it to prevail, to CB must make sure that any deviation of the πt or xt from equilibrium will be reacted to. The rule for MP can look e.g. like this: it = re t + Ψ [κσ(1 − ρu) + αxρu] ut + ψπ(πt − αxΨut) Monetary Policy Under Commitment CB pursues state-contingent policy {πt, xt}∞ t=0 that minimizes E0 ∞ t=0 βt (αxx2 t + π2 t ), s.t. πt = βEtπt+1 + κxt + ut We can set up a Lagrangean of this problem with constraint variable γt: L = − 1 2 E0 t=0 βt αxx2 t + π2 t + 2γt (πt − κxt − βπt+1 − ut) FOCs: αxxt − κγt = 0 πt + γt − γt−1 = 0 for t = 0, 1, 2, ... and where γ−1 = 0. Take first difference of the first FOC and plug into the second FOC to get x0 = − κ αx π0, t = 0 xt = xt−1 − κ αx πt, t = 1, 2, ... 15 where the first equation follows from the fact that because γ−1 = 0, the constraint in time t − 1 is irrelevant. We can think about these equations as about targeting rules that result from the solution of the CB problem. The second targeting rule implies xt = xt−1 − κ αx pt + κ αx pt−1 and we know that in time t = 0: x0 = κ αx p−1 − κ αx p0 This together gives xt = − κ αx (pt − p−1) = − κ αx pt. We can see that it is optimal for the central bank to keep price level equal to price level target (in this case p−1). This is the case for price level targeting. What would this price level target mean? We can add and subtract p−1 to standard Phillips curve and plug for xt to get pt − pt−1 = βEt(pt+1 − pt) + κxt + ut pt = aβEt(pt+1) + apt−1 + aut, a = αx αx(1 + β) + κ2 which is a second order difference equation for pt. We guess the form of the solution to be pt = δpt−1 + ηut and (again using the Etut+1 = ρuut) we can write pt = apt−1 + aβ [δpt + ηρuut] + aut pt = a 1 − aδβ pt−1 + a [βηρu + 1] 1 − aδβ ut which implies (together with our guess, compare corresponding coefficients) that δ = a 1 − aδβ , η = a [βηρu + 1] 1 − aδβ . 16 We can solve for δ. Because it is a second order equation (= kvadraticka rovnice), we choose the stable solution ( δ ∈ [0; 1]; same for η): δ = 1 − 1 − 4βa2 2aβ . Now we see that pt under optimal monetary policy with commitment follows stationary process pt = δpt−1 + δ 1 − δβρu ut which, however, implies price level targeting, even though we wanted to stabilize inflation. The optimal trajectory for output gap is then given by xt = δxt−1 − κδ αx(1 − δβρu) ut, t = 1, 2, 3, ... x0 = − κδ αx(1 − δβρu) u0, t = 0 17 4 Wage Rigidities Now we introduce wage rigidities into the model and see what happens. 4.1 Alternative Labor Market Specifications With competitive labor market, we have wt − pt = mrst, mrst = −un,t − uc,t = σct + ϕnt. A very general way of introducing imperfections into labor market is to rewrite the previous wt − pt = µw t + mrst where µw t is the (log) wage markup, that stands for (some) deviation/imperfection. So why would there be a wage markup? One way to justify that is to think about monopoly labor union (job agency) selling labor to firms. The wages are flexible. The labor demand is given by isoelastic demand function ND t = Wt Pt − w . The union maximizes the welfare of its members given by U(Ct, Nt) subject to the budget constraint PtCt = WtNt + ... where the dots stand for things the union can not influence and we do not care about now. Plugging for the Nt, computing FOCs wrt to Ct and Wt and putting them together yields Wt Pt = Mup w −Un,t Uc,t , Mup w = w w − 1 , log Mup w = µw t = µw Because of the flexible wages, the markup is constant, but the important thing is that the markup is there. What does it do with the inflation dynamics? In derivation of the Phillips curve, we had πp t = βEtπp t+1 − λpµp t . 18 This was derived witnout any reference to labor market. Now µp t = pt − (wt − at) = at − (µw t + mrst) = −µw t − (σ + ϕ)yt + (1 + ϕ)at The last equation holds whether prices are sticky or not. We can take the last equation a) at the natural equilibrium and b) under sticky prices and wages, subtract and get µp t = −(σ + ϕ)yt − µw t , µw t = µw t − µw Now we get the previous inflation equation in the form πp t = βEtπp t+1 + κpyt + λpµw t . Because of the non-zero last term, there is a tradeoff between stabilizing inflation and output gap. 4.2 Enderson-Herceg-Levin Model To model wage rigidities, we will use the model by Enderson, Herceg and Levin. We have a [0; 1] continuum of households, each supplies his own, unique kind of labor. Only a (1 − θw) fraction of households adjusts wage every period. Firms use all kinds of labor and produce according to Yt(i) = At 1 0 Nt(i, h)1− 1 w dh w w−1 Firms’ optimization (see the end of this section) implies following labor de- mand: Nt(i) = Nt Wt(i) Wt −εw . The household sets wage to maximize Et ∞ k=0 βk θk w (U(Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k)) , Nt,t+k = W∗ t Wt+k − w Nt+k, 19 where Nt,t+k is demand for labor in period t+k of household who reset price in period t. The FOC is wrt to W∗ t ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UC(Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k)(1 − w) Nt+k,t Pt+k − wUN (Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k) Nt+k,t W∗ t = 0 ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UC(Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k) Nt+k,t Pt+k W∗ t + w w − 1 UN (Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k)Nt+k,t = 0 Now let Mup w = w w−1 and let marginal rate of substitution MRSt = − UN,t UC,t . Denote MRSt+k,t = − UN,t+k,t UC,t+k,t which is the MRS in period t + k of the household that last reset wage at period t. We can rewrite the FOC in following way ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UC(Ct,t+k, Nt,t+k)Nt+k,t W∗ t Pt+k − Mup w MRSt+k,t = 0. Note that under flexible wages, the term in square brackets implies W∗ t Pt+k = Wt Pt+k = Mup w MRSt+k,t, which means that Mup w is the desired markup. Note also that the term in square brackets evaluates to zero in steady state, which will again come in handy when log-linearizing7 . Now we can write: ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UCNt+k,t ew∗ t −pt+k − eµw+mrst+k,t = 0 ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UCNt+k,t ew∗−p (w∗ t − pt+k − w + p) − eµw+mrs (mrst+k,t + mrs) = 0 ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et UCNt+k,tew∗−p [w∗ t − pt+k − mrst+k,t − (w∗ − p − mrs)] = 0 ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et (w∗ t − pt+k − mrst+k,t − µw) = 0 7 Note also that ew∗ −p = eµup w +mrs and that log Mup w = µw = w∗ − p − mrs 20 We can continue ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et (w∗ t − µw) = ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et (pt+k + mrst+k,t) w∗ t = µw + ∞ k=0 (1 − θw)(βθw)k Et (pt+k + mrst+k,t) The model assumes complete financial markets and separable utility in consumption and labor. This implies that household consumption is independent of previous wages, that is Ct+k,t = Ct+k. Therefore mrst+k,t = σct+k +ϕnt+k,t. Let mrst+k denote the average marginal rate of substitution in the economy in period t + k. We can write mrst+k,t = mrst+k + ϕ(nt+k,t − nt+k) = mrst+k − wϕ(w∗ t − wt+k), because the demand for individual labor of the household introduced at the beginning of section 4.2 implies that nt+k,t = − w(w∗ t − wt+k) + nt+k. We can rewrite the wage setting rule as w∗ t = ∞ k=0 (1 − θw)(βθw)k Et (µw + pt+k + mrst+k,t) w∗ t = ∞ k=0 (1 − θw)(βθw)k Et (µw + pt+k + mrst − wϕ(wt ∗ −wt+k)) (1 + wϕ)w∗ t = ∞ k=0 (1 − θw)(βθw)k Et (µw + pt+k + mrst + wϕwt+k) w∗ t = (1 − θw) 1 + wϕ ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et (µw + pt+k + mrst − wt+k + wt+k wϕwt+k) w∗ t = (1 − θw) 1 + wϕ ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et µw − µw t+k + (1 + wϕ)wt+k w∗ t = (1 − θw) ∞ k=0 (βθw)k Et wt+k − µw t+k 1 + wϕ where µw t+k = µw t − µw is the log deviation of average wage markup from steady state. Again, it is easy to verify by solving forward that this rule can 21 be recursively written as w∗ t = βθwEtwt+1 + (1 − βθw) wt − µw t (1 + wϕ) . Using the forward operator, we can write the previous as 1 − βθwL−1 t w∗ t = (1 − βθw) wt − µw t (1 + wϕ) . Same as in the case of price inflation, the wage index Wt = 1 0 Wt(i)1− w 1 1− w implies aggregate wage dynamics in logs: wt = θwwt−1 + (1 − θw)w∗ t . Now combining the wage setting rule with the aggregate wage dynamics we get 1 − βθwL−1 t wt = −(1 − θw) (1 − βθw) 1 + wϕ µw t + 1 − βθwL−1 t θwt−1 and we get rid of the w∗ t . Now we can reaarange: 1 − βθwL−1 t wt = −(1 − θw) (1 − βθw) 1 + wϕ µw t + 1 − βθwL−1 t θwwt−1 wt − βθwEtwt+1 = θwwt−1 − βθ2 wwt − (1 − θw) (1 − βθw) 1 + wϕ µw t wt − βθwEtwt+1 = θwwt−1 − βθ2 wwt − (1 − θw)(1 − βθw) [µw + wt − µw t − wt] + +(1 − θw)(1 − βθw)wt wt − βθwEtwt+1 = θwwt−1 − (1 − θw) (1 − βθw) 1 + wϕ µw t + wt − θwwt − βθwwt θw(wt − wt−1) = βθw(wt+1 − wt) − (1 − θw) (1 − βθw) 1 + wϕ µw t πw t = βπw t+1 − (1 − θw)(1 − βθw) θw(1 + wϕ) µw t πw t = βEtπw t+1 − λwµw t , λw = (1 − θw)(1 − βθw) θw(1 + wϕ) 22 This equation now replaces the wt − pt = mrst for the flexible wage case. Let us now define the real wage gap ωt = ωt − ωn t = ωt − (at − µp ) ω = wt − pt because under flexible prices the price is given as a constant markup over the nominal marginal cost: pt = µp + (wt − at) ⇒ ωn t = wt − pt = at − µp . The log deviation of average price markup in the economy from steady state under sticky prices is then µp t = pt − (wt − at) − µp = −(wt − pt) + at − µp = −ωt + at − µp . Going back to section 4.1 (page 18) we can see that now price Phillips curve transforms from πp t = βEtπp t+1 − λpµp t to πp t = βEtπp t+1 + λpωt. The log deviation of average wage markup from steady state is µw t = ωt − mrst − µw = ωt − (σyt + ϕ(yt − at)) − µw natural equilibrium. : 0 = ωn t − ((σ + ϕ)yn t − ϕat) − µw substract : µw t = ωt − (σ + ϕ)yt So the equation for wage inflation becomes πw t = βEtπw t+1 + κwyt + λwωt, κw = λw(σ + ϕ) (5) To the model, we need to add the wage gap identity ωt−1 = ωt − πw t + πp t + ∆at (6) How do we get this? First notice that ωt = wt − pt and ωn t = at − µp . Then take first differences of ωt = ωt − ωn t ∆ωt = wt − wt−1 − (pt − pt−1) − (at − µp − at−1 + µp) = πw t − πp t − ∆at 23 To complete the model, we need the dynamic IS curve yt = − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − rn t ) + Etyt+1 (7) and the interest rate rule it = ρ + φππp t + φwπw t + φyπy t + vt (8) We can write the model as a dynamical system in the form xt = AW Et{xt+1} + BW zt where xt ≡ [yt, πp t , πw t , ωt−1] zt ≡ [rn t − vt, ∆at] Vector xt contains the endogenous state variables (all information about the state of the system). It has three non-predetermined variables (the first three ones), so we need AW to have three eigenvalues inside the unit circle. Vector zt contains exogenous variables. The first one, rn t − vt, could also be written as a function of at, but prof. Gali chose to write it this way. For the equilibrium to be unique, in particular case of φy = 0, we have the following condition: φπ + φw > 1. We assume that the monetary disturbance follows AR(1): vt = ρvvt−1 + εm t . What now follows in the lecture notes is the calibration and IRFs of the model with sticky prices and wages. I only have that on paper, but you can find that in chapter 6 of the textbook. 4.3 Monetary Policy design We now have, because of sticky wages, a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and output gap. Frictionless allocation (natural plus compensation for the monopolistic competition) is no longer feasible, because it requires real wage changes. 24 The second order approximation to the welfare losses8 is L = (σ + ϕ)var(˜yt) + p λp var(πp t ) + w λw var(πw t ), ∂λw ∂θw < 0 and obviously strict price inflation targeting is no longer optimal. Why? With nonzero wage inflation, some wages change while others do not (some workers can change wages, so can not). But different wages induce firms to buy different amount of various kinds of labor, which means that the output produced by the firms is lower than optimal. The problem of the monetary policy is min E0 ∞ l=0 βt (σ + ϕ)y2 t + p λp (πp t )2 + w λw (πw t )2 subject to three constraints: πp t = βEt{πp t+1} + λpωt πw t = βEt{πW t+1} + κwyt − λwωt ωt−1 = ωt − πw t + πp t + ∆at with associated variables ξi,t for i-th constraint. We get following FOCs: (σ + ϕ)yt + κwξ2,t = 0 p λp πp t − ∆ξ1,t + ξ3,t = 0 w λw πw t − ∆ξ2,t − ξ3,t = 0 λpξ1,t − λwξ2,t + ξ3,t − βEtξ3,t+1 = 0 and we have a dynamic system A∗ 0xt = A∗ 1Etxt+1 + B∗ ∆at where xt ≡ [yt, πp t , πW t , ωt−1, ξ1,t−1, ξ2,t−1, ξ3,t]. We can again produce impulse responses. 8 See appendix of chapter 6 in textbook. 25 4.4 Approximately Optimal Monetary Policy We can not achieve optimal policy. But we can get close. Lets target the composite inflation πt = (1 − ϑ)πp t + ϑπW t , ϑ = λp λp + λW ∈ [0; 1]. for the NK Phillips Curve πt = βEt{πt+1} + κ˜yt, κ = λpλW λp + λW (σ + ϕ). With this composite, there is no policy trade-off and we have nearly optimal policy, according to Woodford(2003). 5 Open Economy Extension This section is based on chapter 7 of the textbook. It was not part of the lectures in Barcelona. I will not follow the textbook completely, but only describe what is needed to derive the model in Justinano, Preston (2009)9 . Most notably, I will simplify things by assuming only one foreign economy and I will complicate things by assuming incomplete exchange rate pass- through. We assume that the representative household consumes a bundle given by Ct = (1 − α)1/η C η−1 η H,t + α1/η C η−1 η F,t η η−1 , subject to PH,tCH,t + PF,tCF,t = PtCt. Here subscript H denotes domestic economy and F denotes foreign economy, so that e.g. CH,t is the consumption of domestic goods and PF,t denotes price index of imported goods consumed in domestic economy. Solution to this problem yields demand functions for domestic goods and imports. Although the algebra is similar to subsection 1.1, we will do this once again, but in another way. 9 Monetary Policy and Uncertainty in an Empirical Small Open Economy Model, FRB Chicago WP 2009-21 26 5.1 Domestic-foreign goods decision Lagrangian of the household is L = PH,tCH,t + PF,tCF,t − λ (1 − α)1/η C η−1 η H,t + α1/η C η−1 η F,t η η−1 − Ct FOCs: PH,t = λC−1 t (1 − α)C −1/η H,t PF,t = λC−1 t αC −1/η F,t Now we just realize that λ is equal to the shadow price of additional unit of consumption, which is Pt, and rearrange to get CH,t = (1 − α) PH,t Pt −η Ct, CF,t = α PF,t Pt −η Ct. To get the price index, we will plug this into the definiton of Ct: Ct = (1 − α) 1 η (1 − α) η−1 η PH,t Pt −η η−1 η C η−1 η t + α 1 η α η−1 η PF,t Pt −η η−1 η C η−1 η t η η−1 Ct = (1 − α) PH,t Pt 1−η + α PF,t Pt 1−η η η−1 CtP (η−1) η η−1 t Pt = (1 − α) PH,t Pt 1−η + α PF,t Pt 1−η 1 1−η 5.2 Household optimization The household’s optimization results into intertemporal Euler equation Qt = βEt Ct+1 Ct −σ Pt Pt+1 which in log again becomes ct = Etct+1 − 1 σ (it − Etπt+1 − ρ), and into intratemporal condition (in logs) wt − pt = σct + ϕnt. 27 5.3 Some identities Define terms of trade as St = PF,t PH,t , st = pF,t − pH,t and log-linearize the formula for Pt to get pt = (1 − α)pH,t + αpF,t = pH,t + αst . It follows from the above that domestic inflation and CPI inflation are linked by πt = πH,t + α∆st. We will now introduce the law of one price gap ΨF,t = εtP∗ t PF,t where εt is the effective nominal exchange rate and P∗ t is the price index in the foreign economy. This gap captures the fact that the prices of imported goods do not move one to one with prices of identical goods in the foreign economy. One reason for that could be monopolistically competitive importers, who absorb the exchange rate fluctuations into their markups. Log-linearize to get ψF,t = et + p∗ t − pF,t. Combine with the definition of the terms of trade to get st = et + p∗ t − ψF,t − pH,t. Next, define the real exchange rate as Qt = εtP∗ t Pt , qt = et + p∗ t − pt, log Qt = qt. It now follows that qt = et + p∗ t =ψF,t+pF,t −pt = ψF,t +pF,t −pt = ψF,t +pF,t −pH,t −αst = ψF,t +(1−α)st 28 5.4 International risk sharing Assuming that agents in foreign and domestic economy share preferences, complete financial markets imply that the price of one period bond is equal over economies and that the marginal utility is equal over economies, so that βEt Ct+1 Ct −σ Pt Pt+1 = Qt = βEt C∗ t+1 C∗ t −σ P∗ t P∗ t+1 εt εt+1 . Employing the definition of the real exchange rate, this becomes Ct = C∗ t Ct+1 C∗ t+1 Qt Qt+1 1/σ We will iterate forward. I’ll show just the first step. Ct = C∗ t C∗ t+1 Ct+2 C∗ t+2 Qt+1 Qt+2 1/σ C∗ t+1 Qt Qt+1 1/σ = C∗ t Ct+2 C∗ t+2 Qt Qt+2 1/σ . We will end up with something like this: Ct = ϑC∗ t Q 1/σ t where ϑ is a constant generally dependent on initial conditions. Take logs and plug for qt to get ct = c∗ t + 1 − α σ st + ψF,t σ . Justiniano and Preston (2009) employ different utility function for households and the final forms of equations are different. See appendix. 5.5 Uncovered Interest Parity Assuming complete financial markets, the price of one-period riskless bond denominated in foreign currency is εtQ∗ t = Qt,t+1εt+1. Remember that Q∗ t = 29 exp{−i∗ t }. Combine this with domestic bond pricing equation Qt = EtQt,t+1. Remember that Qt = exp{−it}: exp{it}Qt,t+1 = 1 = exp{i∗ t } εt+1 εt Qt,t+1 exp{it}Qt,t+1 = exp{i∗ t } εt+1 εt Qt,t+1 Et{Qt,t+1 exp{it} − exp{i∗ t } εt+1 εt } = 0 Log-linearizing around perfect-foresight steady state yields familiar UIP condition (in logs): it = i∗ t + Et{∆et+1}. The same equation can be also derived intuitively. Assume an agent in the domestic economy that has one unit of money and thinks about investing it. She can either invest it in domestic asset and in the next period she gets 1 Qt = eit Alternatively, she can convert her money into foreign currency and invest 1 εt units of foreign currency in foreign asset. In the next period she gets ei∗ t εt units of foreign currency which equals to ei∗ t εt εt+1 units of doestic currency. Because we assume complete financial markets, arbitrage ensures that these two yields need to be equal. 5.6 Firms The firms in home economy use production technology Yt = AtNt 30 so that log real marginal costs expressed in terms of domestic prices are mct = wt − pH,t − at mct = (wt − pt) =σct+φnt +(pt − pH,t) − at mct = σct + φ nt =yt−at +αst − at mct = σct + φyt + αst − (1 + φ)at Justiniano and Preston (2009) assume households with habit in consumption in their utility function. In that case, the equation for the real wage employed in the second step becomes Wt Pt = Nφ t (Ct − hCt−1)−σ and if log-linearized, we have wt − pt = φnt + σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1). Thus the marginal costs equal mct = (wt − pt) = σ 1−h (ct−hct−1)+φnt +(pt − pH,t) − at mct = σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1) + φ nt =yt−at +αst − at mct = σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1) + φyt + αst − (1 + φ)at All variables here are in log difference from steady state. Firm’s optimization problem results in following price setting rule in logs10 : ¯pH,t = µ + 1 − βθ θ ∞ k=0 (βθ)k Et{mct+k + pH,t+k} 10 Recall that now we are only talking about firms producing domestic goods, that’s why pH,t and not pt 31 where ¯pH,t is the newly set optimal price11 In subsection 2.1 (see especially page 8-9), we obtained following three rela- tions πt = βEtπt+1 − λ(µt − µ) µt = pt − ψt = −mct µ = mc These relations were derived without any assumption about closed economy and continue to hold for the open econoemy case. Thus, we can now combine them to get πH,t = βEtπH,t+1 + λmct. This, together with the expression for mct defines the dynamics of inflation. 5.7 Equilibrium Goods market clearing in the domestic economy requires that the whole output of each good is consumed either in the domestic, or in the foreign economy Yt(j) = CH,t(j) + C∗ H,t(j) = PH,t(j) PH,t − CH,t + PH,t(j) PH,t − α PH,t P∗ t εt −η C∗ t = PH,t(j) PH,t − (1 − α) PH,t Pt −η Ct + PH,t(j) PH,t − α PH,t P∗ t εt −η C∗ t = PH,t(j) PH,t − (1 − α) PH,t Pt −η Ct + α PH,t P∗ t εt −η C∗ t where the second equality rests on the assumption of identical preferences across economies that ensures that the foreign demand for exports is derived in the same way as demand for imports: C∗ H,t(j) = PH,t(j) PH,t − C∗ H,t = PH,t(j) PH,t − α P∗ H,t P∗ t εt −η C∗ t 11 Previously, the newly set optimal price was denoted by a star. But now star denotes foreign economy, so we will use the bar. 32 . We also assume no nominal rigidities in exports, so that P∗ H,t = PH,t. We will now log-linearize the market clearing condition. Bear in mind that the variations of PH,t(j) PH,t − are only of the second order. yt = (1 − α)  −η( pH,t =pt−αst −pt) + ct   + α   −η( pH,t =pF,t−st −( p∗ t + et =ψF,t+pF,t )) + c∗ t    yt = (1 − α) [ηαst + ct] + α [η(ψF,t + st) + c∗ t ] yt = (2 − α)ηαst + (1 − α)ct + ηαψF,t + αy∗ t Here we assume that c∗ t = y∗ t , an assumption that is reasonable when considering large and almost closed foreign economy. 33 A.1 Justiniano and Preston In Justiniano and Preston, the utility function is specified as U(Ct, Nt) = E0 ∞ t=0 βt ˜εG,t (Ct − hCt−1)1−σ 1 − σ − N1+ϕ t 1 + ϕ . FOC wrt to Ct is βt ˜εG,t(Ct − hCt−1)−σ = λtPt Therefore the complete markets assumption becomes ˜εG,t+1(Ct+1 − hCt)−σ ˜εG,t(Ct − hCt−1)−σ Pt Pt+1 = ˜ε∗ G,t+1(C∗ t+1 − hC∗ t )−σ ˜ε∗ G,t(C∗ t − hC∗ t−1)−σ P∗ t P∗ t+1 εt εt+1 ˜εG,t+1 ˜εG,t −1/σ (Ct+1 − hCt) (Ct − hCt−1) = ˜ε∗ G,t+1 ˜ε∗ G,t −1/σ (C∗ t+1 − hC∗ t ) (C∗ t − hC∗ t−1) Qt Qt+1 −1/σ (Ct+1 − hCt) (Ct − hCt−1) = ˜ε∗ G,t+1 ˜εG,t+1 −1/σ ˜εG,t ˜ε∗ G,t −1/σ (C∗ t+1 − hC∗ t ) (C∗ t − hC∗ t−1) Qt Qt+1 −1/σ (Ct+1 − hCt) (Ct − hCt−1) = ˜εG,t+1 ˜ε∗ G,t+1 1/σ ˜ε∗ G,t ˜εG,t 1/σ (C∗ t+1 − hC∗ t ) (C∗ t − hC∗ t−1) Qt+1 Qt 1/σ After iterating forward, we get Ct − hCt−1 = (C∗ t − hC∗ t−1)Q 1/σ t ˜εG,t ˜ε∗ G,t 1/σ for log-linearization, we can rewrite that as Cect − hCect−1 = (C∗ ec∗ t − hCec∗ t−1 )(Qeqt )1/σ EeεG,t Eeε∗ G,t 1/σ where Q, C and E are respective steady state values. In symmetric equilibrium, it is true that Q = 1 and C = C∗ . First, the Taylor expansion of the left hand side: LS (1 − h)C + Cct − hCct−1 34 Now, the right hand side (1 − h)CQ1/σ E E 1/σ + CQ1/σ E E 1/σ c∗ t − hCQ1/σ E E 1/σ c∗ t−1 + 1 σ (1 − h)CQ1/σ−1 E E 1/σ Qqt + 1 σ (1 − h)CQ1/σ1 E1/σ−1 E1/σ EεG,t − 1 σ (1 − h)CQ1/σ1 E1/σ E−1/σ−1 Eε∗ G,t We can substract the steady state values from both sides, employ identities from above and divide by C, which leaves us with ct − hct−1 = c∗ t − hc∗ t−1 + 1 − h σ qt + 1 − h σ εG,t − 1 − h σ ε∗ G,t. This is the final log-linearized form. The Euler equation is log-linearized in similar fashion. We start with Qt = βEt           (Ct+1 − hCt) Ct − hCt−1) =At      −σ Pt Pt+1      . Note that Qt = e−it here is different from Qt above, it is not the real exchange rate and it is not equal to 1 in steady state. In fact, if you evaluate the Euler equation in steady state, you see that β = Q. The Taylor expansion of LHS yield Q + Qqt = Q − Qit = Q − βit Now for the RHS: β − βσ A−σ−1 A−σ P P Cct+1 + βσA−σ Aσ−1 hCct−1 + β A A −σ Ppt P − −β A A −σ P P2 Ppt+1 − βσ A A −σ−1 −hCA − AC A2 ct = β − β σ 1 − h ct+1 + β σ 1 − h hct−1 + βpt − βpt+1 − β σ 1 − h (−h − 1)ct = β − β σ 1 − h (ct+1 − hct) + β σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1) − βπt+1 35 Equate LHS and RHS, substract steady state values and divide by β to get σ 1 − h (ct+1 − hct) = σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1) + (it − πt+1). I forgot to add the demand shocks. They multiply the consumption, so that they end up exactly as price level P. We then get σ 1 − h (ct+1 − hct) = σ 1 − h (ct − hct−1) + (it − πt+1) + (εG,t+1 − εG,t). A.2 Labor demand Each household supplies his own, unique kind of labor denoted by h. The firms hire labor in bundles given by CES aggregate Nt(i) = 1 0 Nt(h, i) εw−1 εw dh εw εw−1 . When deciding about hiring, the problem of the firm is to maximize the amount of labor hired given the level of wage expenditures: max Nt(i) s.t. 1 0 Nt(h, i)Wt(h)dh = Zt. FOCs wrt to Nt(h, i) yield Nt(h, i)− 1 εw + λWt(h) = 0. Due to symmetry of firms in equilibrium, we can drop the firm index i. Combining two together, we get Nt(h) Nt(k) = Wt(h) Wt(k) −εw We can use this to plug for Nt(h, i) into the constraint 1 0 Nt(k) Wt(h) Wt(k) −εw Wt(h)dh = Zt Nt(k) 1 Wt(k)−εw W1−εw t = Zt Nt(k) = Zt 1 Wt Wt(k) Wt −εw 36 We now use this to write Nt as Nt =   1 0 Zt 1 Wt Wt(k) Wt −εw εw−1 εw dk   εw εw−1 Nt = Zt Wt 1 W1−εw t 1 0 Wt(k)1−εw dk εw εw−1 Nt = Zt Wt W1−εw t W1−εw t dk εw εw−1 NtWt = Zt Combining the two previous results, we get the demand schedule for labor Nt(i) = Nt Wt(i) Wt −εw . 37