## First presentation comments

### Group 1:

- please always send results in immutable formats (e.g. PDF)
    
- importance on oil on first three slides - very good, that's the key thing
    
- monetary policy analyzed in terms of objectives (stable FX rate) very good!
    
    - "Expansionary monetary policy between 2006 - 2014 with short decrease in 2009
        
        as a result of high demand for manat (due to currency appreciation)." not sure what that means, if I uderstand it it's probably not correct
        
- overall very good presentation, very nice summary, the only thing that is missing is foreign exchange reserves
    

### Group 2:

- correctly identified oil as the key issue
- some slides are just charts, without comments - what's the message of slide 4?
- the description of inflation doesn't really get to the key point why it was so high and what drove it
- the presentation presents facts, but doesn't give much analysis or conclusions from the facts; but overall it's not bad

### Group 3:

- you start with oil, which is good, that's the key issue
- the presentation presents facts, but doesn't give much analysis or conclusions from the facts; that would be good to change
- real exchange rate - why do you think the appreciation continued? If it was unwanted, why did it last so long?
- monetary policy - so was the FX rate targeted, or floating?
- slide 8 is nice
- overall not bad

### General:

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# Second presentation comments:

### Group 1:

- Good intro
- Slide 6 - ok, but why did they do it? You don't explain the reason. You have a theory in slide 5 but it's not correct, there was a good reasoin why everyone wanted to suddenly hold dollars and it wasn't inflation expectations
- Slide 8-10: monetary policy in this period was mainly about FX rate, not interest rates
- Conclusion: "inconsistency in monetary policy: exchange rate vs. inflation objectives" - but you don't really talk about inconsistency in previous slides

### Group 2:

- Slide 6 - good attempt, but would be good to explore this better - use the BoP charts
- "Floating rate that led to Manat being overvalued by the government " Manat was overvalued irrespective of the floating / fixed rate; Government does not decide about overvaluation
- Slide 8 - good, you are the only group to explicitly say they defended FX rate until they couldn't anymore

### Group 3:

- First slide correctly identifies two main shocks - oil + shock to trading partners
- Rise in interest rates in 2016 wasn't material for growth, it was part of a negative shock that came earlier
- Slide 5 - OK, true, but why did manat depreciate in the first place?
- Slide 6 - this one should come before slide 5; also, competitiveness? How does that work when you export oil which is priced in USD and you can always sell it for the current market price?
- Slide 8 - was fiscal stimulus at that time a good idea?
- Overall this presentation doesn't really capture what forced AZ to devaluate and doesn't really evaluate monetary policy of the CBA in that period.

### General comments:

- All groups correctly identified the oil price drop as key shock
- Look at BoP! BoP is almost always important, especially if the country doesn't have floating exchange rate
- No group really explained well why the FX rate depreciated, and what was the role for the central bank. Was there any other option?
- No one mentioned real exchange rate (other than one group putting a chart on a slide which wasn't really commented on...)
- It's good to start at the beginning, so first talk about FX rate, then about inflation
