MPE_AMEM: Final Project
Tomas Motl, Course for Masaryk University, Spring 2023
Setup
We start forecast in 2015Q1.
First, run just "plain forecast" = forecast without any shocks (except the external assumptions, they
should always be there automatically).
Second, identify the shocks that we should add to the forecast, based on your understanding of what
happened in Azerbaijan in 2015-2016.
Third, impose the shocks. You might need to try out a few different magnitudes.
Fourth, compare your forecast to reality. Iterate if necessary.
Output
Two parts: forecast and text.
Forecast = HTML report generated by the codes + Matlab figure comparing forecast and historical
data (either as .fig or as .png or .jpeg) + CSV with tunes.
Text = approx 1.5 page explaining the rationale behind the text
About the text:
Audience is your macroeconomics teachers: do not know QPM, but understand jargon and
economics
I’ll provide examples in Study materials; you should not put so many numbers and so much
background, go for something similar but simpler
Describe the whole forecast period - immediate shocks + long term trends
Describe the underlying cause and transmission mechanism, only then explain the impact on
headline variables
Avoid talking about technical model variables (gaps and trends), use normal economic language
This is a test if you really understand what drives the numbers
 
Deadline May 31, 8pm, send by email.