Presentation 1 comments:
Presentation 1 comments:
General comments:
it's best to submit in immutable formats (PDF, etc)
group 1 had the best presentation overall
only one group looked at the whole BoP, but didn't analyze in-depth, that's a shame
only one group had explicit recommendations for the QPM model, which was kinda the point of the
presentation
Group 1:
overall best presentation, also quite good in absolute terms
correctly identified the key role of oil for basically all important variables
great points about FX regime and it's impact on inflation volatility, import of monetary policy
the only two (minor) downsides:
did not analyze the whole BoP / CBA foreign reserves (where did all the money from oil go?
didn't explicitly say in what ways is the baseline QPM different from the Azeri economy
Group 2:
correctly identified the key role of oil for GDP, especially when looking at the BoP (big plus)
big plus on section about the QPM model
there are some weird things:
slide 7 talks about real growth rates, but you show nominal GDP shares - not really the same
thing
slide 9 - "Nominal exchange rate is undervalued in comparison with REER especially since
2003" that's a nonsensical statement
slide 11 - money growth does not mean expansionary monetary policy - if economy is growing,
then money needs to grow too
slide 12 - so close to greatness, but not quite there...
Group 3:
correctly identified the key role of oil
slide 6 is quite correct about FX impact on inflation, but slide 4 lists almost all reasons you could
think of for high inflation... Slide 6 is correct :)
slide 7 - good, understanding the key point
but no mention of how we should modify our QPM?
Group 4:
kinda DIY presentation - just give charts, let people make their own conclusions?
it's kinda hard to give comments, cause the presentation didn't really do
Group 5:
correctly identified the key role of oil
we usually analyze real GDP primarily, but nominal can also be interesting
slide 6 - BoP is always balanced (HINT: it's in the name)
slide 7 - I don't think they really used interest rates as main tools of monetary policy...
it's good that you have a slide with recommendations, but we're tailoring a model, not advising the
president of Azerbaijan...