1. Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the key factors that has affected largely the tourist industry and
has caused huge losses for businesses, especially ones providing air transportation services. The
outbreak of the virus and the subsequent restrictions on international travel have caused a
significant reduction in the number of tourists worldwide. The tourism industry's recovery from the
pandemic remains uncertain, and forecasts indicate that it will take several years to return to
pre-pandemic levels. I discuss the impact of COVID-19 on tourism and transportation demand and
outline the forecasts for the sector and recovery possibilities. The idea is motivated by
Waramontri, R. et al., (2022) who show how the tourism strategy has changed by the pandemic and how
to minimize the impact of coronavirus with the help of crisis management plans, and by Song, H. and
Li, G., 2021, who forecast the tourism sector recovery.

2. Literature review

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the process of determining and establishing
business objectives, policies, strategies, and methods to achieve business goals effectively and
efficiently. The imposition of restrictions and health measures has affected tourist movements and
air transportation performance, leading to budget scarcity for many businesses. Currently, many
companies are still in the process of recovery and are navigating the new reality of the business
cycle. These challenges have arisen due to the unstable economy, crisis, and uncertainty about the
future. Businesses need to adapt and implement innovative solutions to thrive amidst these
challenges.

Developed and emerging economies, and COVID-19

Wickramasinghe, K. and Naranpanawa, A. (2023) describe the role of domestic tourism in COVID-19
crisis management, it also provides important empirical evidence regarding an emerging economy
context. The authors use the experience of two countries such as the Netherlands and Sri Lanka to
outline the main findings. Firstly, the decline in international tourism has led to gains in Dutch
manufacturing sectors and losses in non-tradable sectors. Secondly, Sri Lanka has a high dependence
on international tourism, which has largely impacted its emerging economy. The authors undertake
two simulation experiments of how the tourism shocks influence the economy through their
system-wide impacts to prove that small economies with a heavy reliance on international tourism
could develop the domestic tourism segment.

Domestic and inbound tourists in Scotland and COVID-19

Allan, G. et al. (2022) explore the impact of COVID-19 on the Scottish economy, focusing on the
decline in tourism expenditure and its cascading effects. They focus on two factors - domestic and
inbound day and overnight tourists to compute the change in tourism expenditure in Scotland
throughout 2021. The authors use a computable general equilibrium model. First, they use the
quantitative approach, collecting data from national databases. Second, they summarize the evidence
from the UK. They find that in the case of Scotland, the fall in inbound spending tends to have a
greater economic impact than the fall in domestic tourism spending due to the composition of
non-domestic spending which consists of a higher proportion of Scottish goods. The analysis
emphasizes that changes in domestic and inbound spending by tourists should be watched closely as
this will be crucial for the medium- and long-term consequences of COVID on the global tourism
industry.

Air Transport in Thailand and COVID-19

In my opinion, the influence of COVID-19 on air transport is clear. According to Waramontri, R. et
al. (2022), the airline industry has faced unprecedented challenges due to the pandemic. However,
the authors show evidence of how two airlines in Thailand have coped with challenges affected by
the COVID-19 pandemic. The in-depth interview is used to obtain the strategy for surviving
pandemics: a) detection of the disruption, b) implementation of the plan, and c) execution of the
plan. Along with the strategy, it is recommended to adapt the employers to the available tools,
monitor digital capabilities and invest in the technologies.


Air tickets demand and COVID-19

According to the research of Bulchand-Gidumal, J. and Melián-González, S. (2021) purchasing airline
tickets will be characterized by a high risk. The altered behavior of customers, coupled with the
prevalence of flight cancellations due to illness, has the potential to cause significant financial
strain on airlines.

Sustainability, resilience, and COVID-19

In the new normal, the industry will face substantial shifts in travel behavior that will alter the
landscape of supply and demand (Luo, L., Chen, J., 2023). The pandemic has significantly impacted
consumption patterns and led to widespread flight cancellations and travel restrictions. As a
result, the industry is now faced with the challenge of adapting to these changes. Additionally,
the high level of uncertainty surrounding the pandemic makes it difficult to diagnose and forecast
industry trends with any degree of accuracy. In this context, the authors argue that marketing can
play a critical role in coordinating efforts toward a rapid and sustainable recovery.

Tourism Forecasting and COVID-19

In my view, forecasting is important for businesses to deal with COVID-19's consequences. Nowadays,
companies still adopt to new rules such as health restrictions, and remote employment. However, on
the other hand, Song, H. and Li, G. (2021) describe a COVID-19 Risk Exposure index to assist
scenario forecasting, but the probabilities of the positive forecasting are divided into three
groups with recovery rates of 58%, between 29% and 45% and the widest range of recovery rates from
36% to 77%. In my opinion, these wide ranges can be explained by past uncertainty and lack of
relevant research.

3. Conclusion

In conclusion, my discussion shows that global crisis and economic instability are partially linked
to the COVID-19 pandemic and that reason has a negative influence on economic performance. It is
critical for companies to provide people with products and services as well as to have positive
business results. However, the available research has some limitations, such as economic
differences in the world, new rules, and laws, and changed customers’ behavior. The research's
usefulness has been slightly decreased because of this. Future studies should identify the
potential recovery strategies to return to before-COVID-19 period, and government actions to
increase tourism, especially in tourism-dependent countries, combining research methodologies and
methods. To conclude, COVID-19 has significantly affected the tourism, and air transportation
sectors, constraining the world economy to recovery, but the present economic situation still must
be improved to perform at least at the same level as before the pandemic.

4. Resources:

Allan, G. et al., 2022. “Economic impacts of COVID-19 on inbound and domestic tourism”. Annals of
Tourism Research Empirical Insights, 3, 100075.

Bulchand-Gidumal, J. and Melián-González, S., 2021. “Post-COVID-19 behavior change in purchase of
air tickets”. Annals of Tourism Research, 87, 103129.

Luo, L., Chen, J., 2023. “Covid 19 and the Tourism Industry: sustainability, resilience and new
directions” Book Review. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 55, pp. 70-71.

Song, H. and Li, G., 2021. “Editorial: Tourism forecasting competition in the time of COVID-19”.
Annals of Tourism Research, 88, 103198.

Waramontri, R. et al., 2022. “Tourism Strategy responses to Covid-19 Pandemic: Case Study in Air
Transport”. Transportation Research Procedia, 63, pp. 2500-2505.

Wickramasinghe, K. and Naranpanawa, A., 2023. “Tourism and COVID-19: An economy-wide assessment”.
Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 55, pp. 131-138.