Kepner-Tregoe Methodology
Skorkovský
Department of business economy
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Feveloped by Charles H. Kepner and Benjamin B. Tregoe in the 1960s.

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The formulation of a problem is far more essential than its solution, which may be merely a matter
of mathematical or experimental skill”
- Albert Einstein

Apollo 13 – Houston, Houston, do you read me ?  We have a big problem….!
The Apollo 13 team is famous for bringing back the astronauts stranded in space by solving
difficult and complex problems. The teams solving the problems has used the Kepner-Tregoe (KT)
methodology !
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Decision Analysis –serious one
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Sticky- lepkavý
Lick – olíznout

What is it K-T methodology  ?
Kepner Tregoe is used for decision making .
It is a structured  methodology for gathering information and prioritizing and evaluating it.
It is very detailed and complex method applicable in many areas, which
is much broader than just idea selection.
It is called also a root cause analysis and decision-making method.
It is a step-by-step approach for systematically solving problems, making decisions, and analyzing
potential risks.
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Access situation (situation appraisal)
•Identify concerns (problems) by listing them
•Separate the level of concern (importance, magnitude and level of influence) •Set the priority
level to measure seriousness of impacts (influence), urgency and growth potential
•Decide what action to take next (step by step approach)
•Plan for who is involved, what they will be doing, where they will be involved, when it happened
and the extent of involvement (magnitude)
•
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WHO WHAT WHEN WHERE EXTENT
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Make decision (A choice between two or more alternatives)
•Identify what is being decided  (quality, used methods, renumeration,..)
•Establish and classify objectives (main ones, minor ones,..)- goals
•Separate the objectives into must (must to have) and want (nice to have)  categories (we have to
assign importance factors from 1-10, where 10 is the most important want objective) and assign
criterion rating (weights)
•Generate the alternatives (we can do  it that way or we can take another way as well)
•Evaluate the alternatives by scoring the wants against the main objective – see next slides
•Review adverse (harmful) consequences of your corrective steps (risk evaluation, risk assessment)
•Make the best possible choice what to do
•
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Criteria rating
See similar example on the next slide
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Importance can be understood as a Satisfaction score,
meaning desirable but not essential.
Criteria rating is related to want criteria and every car property

Which car to buy ?
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Criterion rating

go to slide 37 and then jump back
Importance score, meaning
desirable but not essential.

See the Upcoming (approaching, next to come) and Potential Opportunity=Solution )
•
•List the potential opportunities O{op1,  op2  ,..,opN}
•Consider the possible(suitable)solution (e.g. the second one)
•Take the action to address the likely cause/solution
•Prepare actions to enhance possible effects..
•
•
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Uncover and handle problems
(problem analysis)
•State the problem (definition and description of the problem)
•Specify the problem by asking what is and what is not
•Develop possible causes of the problem (similar to CRT)
•Test and verify possible causes
•Determine the most probable cause (root cause)
•Verify any assumptions
•Try the best possible solution and monitor what will be a situation after applied correctives step
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Description
Problem 1
Problem N
Description
Causes
Priority
(urgency)
Description
Causes
Priority
(urgency)
Solution (corrective action) 1
Solution (corrective action) X
Solution (corrective action) 1
Solution (corrective action) Y
Problem 1´
Problem N´
Situation
Situation
Oválný popisek: What WhereWhenExtent
What
WhereWhenExtent
Oválný popisek: What WhereWhenExtent
What
WhereWhenExtent
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Oválný popisek: WHERE and WHERE NOT
WHERE
and WHERE NOT
Oválný popisek: WHERE and WHERE NOT
WHERE
and WHERE NOT

Decomposition, priorities and causes
Problem 1

Sub-problem 1
Sub-problem N
Priority1
Priority N
Problem 1
Problem 2

Sub-problem 1
Sub-problem N
Cause 1
Cause N
Problem 2
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Example of problem manifestation (decrease of performance)
performance
time
Planned performance
Real performance
Unfavourable deviation
 What do we see, hear, feel,
 taste, or smell that tells us
 there is a deviation?
Final effect of the                              =  PROBLEM (e.g. server crashed, hard disk with
database crashed)
Then we have to ask  : What, Where, When, and to what Extent –Size (how much, how many)?
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Server crashed !!!! (home study !!!)
•Server crashed (this is a very poor problem definition)
•The e-mail system crashed after the 3rd shift support engineer applied hot-fix XYZ to Exchange
Server 123 (better definition of the problem)
•
•
History (and best practice) says that the root cause of the problem is probably due to some recent
change. WHAT, WHERE, WHEN and EXTENT will be shown on next slides
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Test the Most Probable Cause
(home study !!!)
Clarifying problem Analysis (example)
We have to ask (where Qi =QUESTION i) :
Question IS IS NOT
What (identify) Q1 Q2
Where (locate) Q3 Q4
When (timing) Q5 Q6
Extent (magnitude) Q7 Q8
See next slides
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Problem Analysis - What
•What specific object(s) has the deviation?
•
•What is the specific deviation?
•
Is
Is Not
nWhat similar object(s) could have the deviation, but does not? (It did not happen)
nWhat other deviations could be reasonably observed, but are not? (It did not happen)
Example for Is :
1.   What specific  object  IS related  to the defect?
       Inventory Valuation Objects in database A
2.   What specifically is the defect (deviation)?
      Inventory Adjustment does not work
1-> see setup  of the database and see differences
2->see algorithm used for calculation and parameters  used.
      You can see , that in production calculation related
      algorithm is not functional
Example for Is Not :
 1. What specific  object  IS NOT related to the defect?
       Inventory Valuation Objects in database B
  2. What specifically is  not the defect (deviation)?

1 -> Setup has another parameters ON
2->  Algorithm is used also for production where not error
         occurs
1.

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See two MS Dynamics Setup screens
(related to the problem specified recently)
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Back to vampires :Problem Analysis - What
•What specific object(s) has the deviation?
•
•
•What is the specific deviation? - bites on the neck
•
Is
Is Not
nWhat similar object(s) could have the deviation, but does not? (It did not happen)
n
n
What could the specific deviation? but does not? (It did not happen) – bites, anemia
Example for Is :
1. Nice young girl´s neck and strange
     look of anemic person

1.Girl with garlic  in her hands
2. No bites
3. Zaftig
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Example of Is Not :

 Example for What IS and What IS NOT

Customer X and Customer Y both use product B  but only to customer X was sent the wrong product  so
the object IS Customer X , but  IS NOT  Customer Y

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http://digitalgrowth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/26.jpg

Problem Analysis - When
Is
Is Not
•When was the deviation observed first (clock and calendar time)?
•
•When since that time has the deviation been observed?
•
•When, in the object’s history or life cycle, was the deviation observed first?
nWhen else could the deviation have been observed first, but was not?
nWhen since that time could the deviation have been observed, but was not?
nWhen else, in the object’s history or life cycle, could the deviation have been observed first,
but was not?
See example next slide
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Example for When and IS and IS NOT
Customer X and Customer Y both use product B  but only customer X was sent the wrong product if
Salesman Tony was on holiday in this time and Saleswomen  Linda was in charge, so the object  IS
Saleswomen Linda , but  IS NOT Salesman Tony
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http://digitalgrowth.ca/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/26.jpg
Linda
Tony

Another example for What IS and What IS NOT as well as Where IS and Where IS NOT
IS girl Sarah visited  Dracula lower castle without a bunch of garlic, but IS NOT not the one
(Emily) having bunch of  garlic and visiting Špilberk castle in Brno
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Sarah
 (What IS)
       Emily
(What IS NOT)
 Dracula Castle
 (Where IS)
 Špilberk Brno
(Where IS NOT)

Problem Analysis - Where
•Where is the object when the deviation is observed? (geographically)
•
•Where is the deviation on the object?
•
nWhere else could the object be when the deviation is observed, but is not?
nWhere else could the deviation be located on the object, but is not?

Is
Is Not
Example for Is :
1.Old castle in the mountains (Romania)

Where IS :  Romanian Carpathian mountains
 where it is very easy to meet a lot of vampires
 there

Example for Is Not
1. Brno castle Špilberk
Where IS NOT possible to meet vampires
(only lovers and children and seniors)
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Problem Analysis - Extent
•How many objects have the deviation?
•
•What is the size of a single deviation?
•How many deviations are on each object?
•
•What is the trend?
–Occurrences?
–Size?
•How many objects could have the deviation, but don’t?
•What other size could a deviation be, but isn’t?
•How many deviations could there be on each object, but are not?
•What could be the trend, but isn’t?
•Occurrences?
•Size?
Is
Is Not
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Problem Analysis
Confirm True Cause
•What can be done to verify any assumptions made?
•How can this cause be observed at work?
•How can we demonstrate the cause-and-effect relationship (e.g. Current Reality Tree or Ishikawa
Fishbone Diagram)? •When corrective action is taken, how will results be checked?
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Let’s Look At Some Problems!
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Systematic Problem Solving and Decision making Overview
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Planning the Next Steps
•Problem Analysis
•Do we have a deviation?
•Is the cause unknown?
•Is it important to know the cause to take effective action?
•
•If the answer is YES to ALL three listed problems above, than you have a big problem, Huston !!!
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Problem analysis table template
(Home study)
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Problem description (example)
•On a new model of airplane, flight attendants develop rash on arms, hands, face (only those
places). It only occurs on flights over water.
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•Usually disappears after 24 hours. No problems on old planes over those routes.
•
•Does not affect all attendants on these flights, but same
•number of attendants get it on each flight. Those who get rash have no other ill effects.
•
•No measurable chemicals, etc., in cabin air.
Rash arm ->
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Results ????
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Problem analysis real table
Distinction=Difference
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Example of analysis


Thanks for Your attention
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Tree of the casual relationships I –example
•Decline of revenue due to :
•Lower merchantability of the items (list of UDE – see TOC)
•New competitors
•Change of the customer preferences
•Poor (not sufficient) quality of the item
–Restriction of capacity production
•Downtime due to machine failure, obsolete machinery,  irregular maintenance
–Change of the legislation (change of the health rules)
See partr of CRT tree
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Revenue decline
Decline of
demand
Lower production
Decrease of production capacity
Lower quality
Change of the
customer preferences
New competitors
Change of the health rule
 Machinery is liable
to breakdowns
Machinery downtimes
…
…
…
…
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Let’s Look At Some Problems again!
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Decision making process
•Problem definition
•Requirements identification
•Goal establishment
•Evaluation criteria development
•Select decision –making tool
•Apply chosen tool (K&T, Pros-Cons,…)
•Check relulst (P-D-A-C)
•
•
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Step 1 Problem: Pick a replacement vehicle for the motor pool fleet
The definition of the problem dictates the requirements. As the vehicle is for a motor pool, the
requirements will differ from those for a family car, for example.
Step 2 Requirements:
1. Vehicle shall be made in U. S. A.
2. Vehicle shall seat at least four adults, but no more than six adults
3. Vehicle shall cost no more than $28,000
4. Vehicle shall be new and the current model year
Step 1 and Step 2

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Min
Max
Max 28000 USD
New car
(current  model)

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Step 3 and Step 4
Step 3 Goals:
· Maximize passenger comfort
· Maximize passenger safety
· Maximize fuel-efficiency
· Maximize reliability of the car
· Minimize investment cost
Step 4 Alternatives:
There are many alternatives but the requirements eliminate the consideration of a number of them:
Requirement 1 eliminates the products not manufactured in the USA
Requirement 2 eliminates vans, buses, and sports cars (Ferrari no !!!!)
Requirement 3 eliminates high-end luxury cars
Requirement 4 eliminates used vehicles

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Step 5 Criteria:
“Maximize comfort” will be based on the combined rear  seat leg and shoulder room. (Note: front
seat passenger  leg and shoulder room was found to be too nearly the same to discriminate among the
alternatives.)  5
“Maximize safety” will be based on the total number of stars awarded by the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration for head-on and side impact.  10
“Maximize fuel efficiency” will be based on the EPA fuel consumption for city driving.  7
“Maximize reliability” will be based on the reliability rating given each vehicle by a consumer
product testing company. 9
“Minimize Cost” will be based on the purchase price. 10
Step 5
Weighted criteria vector  C(5,10,7,9,10) are values assigned  by decision makers !!!!

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Kepner-Tregoe table
(for 4 cars : Arrow, Baton, Carefree and Dash)

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Last Step  Validate Solution:
The totals of the weighted scores show that the Dash most nearly meets the wants/goals (or put
another way, has the most “benefits”). Dash meets all the requirements and solves the problem !!!
Last step – Validation (check)
Go back to slide 11