Econometrics - Lecture 4 Heteroskedasticity Contents nViolations of V{ε} = s2 IN: Illustrations and Consequences nHeteroskedasticity nTests against Heteroskedasticity nGLS Estimation nAutocorrelation Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 2 Gauss-Markov Assumptions A1 E{εi} = 0 for all i A2 all εi are independent of all xi (exogeneous xi) A3 V{ei} = s2 for all i (homoskedasticity) A4 Cov{εi, εj} = 0 for all i and j with i ≠ j (no autocorrelation) Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 3 Observation yi is a linear function yi = xi'b + εi of observations xik, k =1, …, K, of the regressor variables and the error term εi for i = 1, …, N; xi' = (xi1, …, xiK); X = (xik) n n n n n n n In matrix notation: E{ε} = 0, V{ε} = s2 IN OLS Estimator: Properties nUnder assumptions (A1) and (A2): n1. The OLS estimator b is unbiased: E{b} = β n nUnder assumptions (A1), (A2), (A3) and (A4): n2. The variance of the OLS estimator is given by n V{b} = σ2(Σi xi xi’)-1 = σ2(X‘ X)-1 n3. The sampling variance s2 of the error terms εi, n s2 = (N – K)-1 Σi ei2 n is unbiased for σ2 n4. The OLS estimator b is BLUE (best linear unbiased estimator) Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 4 Violations of V{e} = s2IN nImplications of the Gauss-Markov assumptions for ε: n V{ε} = σ2IN nViolations: nHeteroskedasticity n V{ε} = diag(s12, …, sN2) n with si2 ¹ sj2 for at least one pair i ¹ j, or using si2 = s2 hi2, n V{ε} = s2Y = s2 diag(h12, …, hN2) nAutocorrelation: V{εi, εj} ¹ 0 for at least one pair i ¹ j or n V{ε} = s2Y n with non-diagonal elements different from zero n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 5 Example: Household Income and Expenditures n70 households (HHs): n monthly HH-income and expenditures for durable goods n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 6 0 400 800 1200 1600 2000 2400 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 HH-income Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 7 Household Income and Expenditures, cont‘d Residuals e = y- ŷ from Ŷ = 44.18 + 0.17 X X: monthly HH-income Y: expenditures for durable goods the larger the income, the more scattered are the residuals -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 HH-income Oct 27, 2017 Typical Situations for Heteroskedasticity nHeteroskedasticity is typically observed nin data from cross-sectional surveys, e.g., surveys in households or regions nin data with variance that depends of one or several explanatory variables, e.g., variance of the firms’ turnover depends on firm size (in number of staff) nin data from financial markets, e.g., exchange rates, stock returns Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 8 Example: Household Expenditures nVariation of expenditures for food, increasing with growing income; from Verbeek, Fig. 4.1 n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 9 Autocorrelation of Economic Time-series nConsumption in actual period is similar to that of the preceding period; the actual consumption „depends“ on the consumption of the preceding period nConsumption, production, investments, etc.: to be expected that successive observations of economic variables correlate positively nSeasonal adjustment: application of smoothing and filtering algorithms induces correlation of the smoothed data Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 10 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 11 Example: Imports Scatter-diagram of by one period lagged imports [MTR(-1)] against actual imports [MTR] Correlation coefficient between MTR und MTR(-1): 0.9994 Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 12 Example: Import Function MTR: Imports FDD: Total Demand (from AWM-database) Import function: MTR = -227320 + 0.36 FDD R2 = 0.977, tFFD = 74.8 Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 13 Import Function: Residuals MTR: Imports FDD: Total Demand (from AWM-database) RESID: et = MTR - (-227320 + 0.36 FDD) Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 14 Import Function: Residuals, cont‘d Scatter-diagram of by one period lagged residuals [Resid(-1)] against actual residuals [Resid] Serial correlation! Oct 27, 2017 Typical Situations for Autocorrelation nAutocorrelation is typically observed if na relevant regressor with trend or seasonal pattern is not included in the model: miss-specified model nthe functional form of a regressor is incorrectly specified nthe dependent variable is correlated in a way that is not appropriately represented in the systematic part of the model nWarning! Omission of a relevant regressor with trend implies autocorrelation of the error terms; in econometric analyses, autocorrelation of the error terms is always to be suspected! nAutocorrelation of the error terms indicates deficiencies of the model specification nTests for autocorrelation are the most frequently used tool for diagnostic checking the model specification Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 15 Some Import Functions nRegression of imports (MTR) on total demand (FDD) n MTR = -2.27x109 + 0.357 FDD, tFDD = 74.9, R2 = 0.977 n Autocorrelation (of order 1) of residuals: q Corr(et, et-1) = 0.993 nImport function with trend (T) n MTR = -4.45x109 + 0.653 FDD – 0.030x109 T n tFDD = 45.8, tT = -21.0, R2 = 0.995 n Multicollinearity? Corr(FDD, T) = 0.987! nImport function with lagged imports as regressor n MTR = -0.124x109 + 0.020 FDD + 0.956 MTR-1 n tFDD = 2.89, tMTR(-1) = 50.1, R2 = 0.999 n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 16 Consequences of V{e} ¹ s2IN for OLS estimators nOLS estimators b for b nare unbiased nare consistent nhave the covariance-matrix n V{b} = s2 (X'X)-1 X'YX (X'X)-1 nare not efficient estimators, not BLUE nfollow – under general conditions – asymptotically the normal distribution nThe estimator s2 = e'e/(N-K) for s2 is biased Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 17 Consequences of V{e} ¹ s2IN for Applications nOLS estimators b for b are still unbiased nRoutinely computed standard errors are biased; the bias can be positive or negative nt- and F-tests may be misleading nRemedies nAlternative estimators nCorrected standard errors nModification of the model nTests for identification of heteroskedasticity and for autocorrelation are important tools n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 18 Contents nViolations of V{ε} = s2 IN: Illustrations and Consequences nHeteroskedasticity nTests against Heteroskedasticity nGLS Estimation nAutocorrelation Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 19 Example: Labor Demand nVerbeek’s data set “labour2”: Sample of 569 Belgian companies (data from 1996) nVariables qlabour: total employment (number of employees) qcapital: total fixed assets qwage: total wage costs per employee (in 1000 EUR) qoutput: value added (in million EUR) nLabour demand function n labour = b1 + b2*wage + b3*output + b4*capital Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 20 Labor Demand and Potential Regressors Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 21 Inference under Heteroskedasticity nCovariance matrix of b: n V{b} = s2 (X'X)-1 X'YX (X'X)-1 n with Y = diag(h12, …, hN2) nUse of s2 (X'X)-1 (the standard output of econometric software) instead of V{b} for inference on b may be misleading nRemedies nUse of correct variances and standard errors nTransformation of the model so that the error terms are homoskedastic Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 22 The Correct Variances nV{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2, i = 1,…,N: each observation has its own unknown parameter hi nN observation for estimating N unknown parameters? nTo estimate σ2i – and V{b} nKnown form of the heteroskedasticity, specific correction qE.g., hi2 = zi’a for some variables zi qRequires estimation of a nWhite’s heteroskedasticity-consistent covariance matrix estimator (HCCME) n Ṽ{b} = s2(X'X)-1(Siĥi2xixi’) (X'X)-1 n with ĥi2=ei2 qDenoted as HC0 qInference based on HC0: “heteroskedasticity-robust inference” Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 23 White’s Standard Errors nWhite’s standard errors for b nSquare roots of diagonal elements of HCCME nUnderestimate the true standard errors nVarious refinements, e.g., HC1 = HC0[N/(N-K)] nIn GRETL: HC0 is the default HCCME, HC1 and other modifications are available as options Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 24 Labor Demand Function nFor Belgian companies, 1996; Verbeek’s data set “labour2” n n n n n n n n n n labour = b1 + b2*wage + b3*output + b4*capital n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 25 Labor Demand Function: Residuals vs output Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 26 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nCan the error terms be assumed to be homoskedastic? nThey may vary depending on the company size, measured by, e.g., size of output or capital nRegression of squared residuals on appropriate regressors will indicate heteroskedasticity n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 27 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nAuxiliary regression of squared residuals, Verbeek n n n n n n n n n nIndicates dependence of error terms on output, capital, not on wage n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 28 Labor Demand Function, cont’d Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 29 With White standard errors: Output from GRETL Dependent variable : LABOR Heteroskedastic-robust standard errors, variant HC0, coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value ------------------------------------------------------------- const 287,719 64,8770 4,435 1,11e-05 *** WAGE -6,7419 1,8516 -3,641 0,0003 *** CAPITAL -4,5905 1,7133 -2,679 0,0076 *** OUTPUT 15,4005 2,4820 6,205 1,06e-09 *** Mean dependent var 201,024911 S.D. dependent var 611,9959 Sum squared resid 13795027 S.E. of regression 156,2561 R- squared 0,935155 Adjusted R-squared 0,934811 F(2, 129) 225,5597 P-value (F) 3,49e-96 Log-likelihood 455,9302 Akaike criterion 7367,341 Schwarz criterion -3679,670 Hannan-Quinn 7374,121 Oct 27, 2017 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nEstimated function n labour = b1 + b2*wage + b3*output + b4*capital n OLS estimates and standard errors: without (s.e.) and with White correction (White s.e.) and GLS estimates with wi = 1/(ei2) n n n n n n nThe White standard errors are inflated by factors 3.7 (wage), 6.4 (capital), 7.0 (output) with respect to the OLS s.e. n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 30 b1 b2 b3 b4 Coeff OLS 287.19 -6.742 15.400 -4.590 s.e. 19.642 0.501 0.356 0.269 White s.e. 64.877 1.852 2.482 1.713 Coeff GLS 321.17 -7.404 15.585 -4.740 s.e. 20.328 0.506 0.349 0.255 An Alternative Estimator for b nIdea of the estimator 1.Transform the model so that it satisfies the Gauss-Markov assumptions 2.Apply OLS to the transformed model nResults in an (at least approximately) BLUE n nTransformation often depends upon unknown parameters that characterizing heteroskedasticity: two-step procedure 1.Estimate the parameters that characterize heteroskedasticity and transform the model 2.Estimate the transformed model nThe procedure results in an approximately BLUE Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 31 An Example nModel: n yi = xi’β + εi with V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 nDivision by hi results in n yi /hi = (xi /hi)’β + εi /hi n with a homoskedastic error term n V{εi /hi} = σi2/hi2 = σ2 nOLS applied to the transformed model gives n nThis estimator is an example of the “generalized least squares” (GLS) or “weighted least squares” (WLS) estimator Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 32 Weighted Least Squares Estimator nA GLS or WLS estimator is a least squares estimator where each observation is weighted by a non-negative factor wi > 0: n n nWeights wi proportional to the inverse of the error term variance σ2hi2: Observations with a higher error term variance have a lower weight; they provide less accurate information on β nNeeds knowledge of the hi qIs seldom available qEstimates of hi can be based on assumptions on the form of hi qE.g., hi2 = zi’a or hi2 = exp(zi’a) for some variables zi nAnalogous with general weights wi nWhite’s HCCME uses wi = ei-2 Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 33 Labor Demand Function, cont’d Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 34 Regression of “l_usq1”, i.e., log(ei2), on capital and output Dependent variable : l_usq1 coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value ------------------------------------------------------------- const 7,24526 0,0987518 73,37 2,68e-291 *** CAPITAL −0,0210417 0,00375036 −5,611 3,16e-08 *** OUTPUT 0,0359122 0,00481392 7,460 3,27e-013 *** Mean dependent var 7,531559 S.D. dependent var 2,368701 Sum squared resid 2797,660 S.E. of regression 2,223255 R- squared 0,122138 Adjusted R-squared 0,119036 F(2, 129) 39,37427 P-value (F) 9,76e-17 Log-likelihood −1260,487 Akaike criterion 2526,975 Schwarz criterion 2540,006 Hannan-Quinn 2532,060 Oct 27, 2017 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nEstimated function n labour = b1 + b2*wage + b3*output + b4*capital n OLS estimates and standard errors: without (s.e.) and with White correction (White s.e.); and GLS estimates with wi = ei-2, with fitted values for ei from the regression of log(ei2) on capital and output n n n n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 35 b1 wage output capital OLS coeff 287.19 -6.742 15.400 -4.590 s.e. 19.642 0.501 0.356 0.269 White s.e. 64.877 1.852 2.482 1.713 FGLS coeff 321.17 -7.404 15.585 -4.740 s.e. 20.328 0.506 0.349 0.255 Contents nViolations of V{ε} = s2 IN: Illustrations and Consequences nHeteroskedasticity nTests against Heteroskedasticity nGLS Estimation nAutocorrelation Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 36 Tests against Heteroskedasticity nDue to unbiasedness of b, residuals are expected to indicate heteroskedasticity nGraphical displays of residuals may give useful hints nResidual-based tests: nBreusch-Pagan test nKoenker test nGoldfeld-Quandt test nWhite test n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 37 Breusch-Pagan Test nFor testing whether the error term variance is a function of Z2, …, Zp nModel for heteroskedasticity n si2/s2 = h(zi‘a) n with function h with h(0)=1, p-vectors zi und a, zi containing an intercept and p-1 variables Z2, …, Zp nNull hypothesis n H0: a = 0 n implies si2 = s2 for all i, i.e., homoskedasticity n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 38 Breusch-Pagan Test, cont‘d nTypical functions h for h(zi‘a) nLinear regression: h(zi‘a) = zi‘a nExponential function h(zi‘a) = exp{zi‘a} qAuxiliary regression of the log (ei2) upon zi q“Multiplicative heteroskedasticity” qVariances are non-negative nFor h(zi‘a) = zi‘a nAuxiliary regression of the “scaled” squared residuals ui2 = ei2/s2 with s2 = e’e/N on zi (and squares of zi); nTest statistic BP follows approximately the Chi-squared distribution with p -1 d.f. n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 39 Koenker Test nKoenker test: variant of the BP test which is robust against non-normality of the error terms nFor testing whether the error term variance is a function of Z2, …, Zp nAuxiliary regression of the squared OLS residuals ei2 on zi n ei2 = zi‘a + vi nTest statistic: N*Rv2 with Rv2 of the auxiliary regression; follows approximately the Chi-squared distribution with p -1 d.f. nGRETL: The output window of OLS estimation allows the execution of the Breusch-Pagan test with h(zi‘a) = zi‘a qOLS output => Tests => Heteroskedasticity => Breusch-Pagan qKoenker test: OLS output => Tests => Heteroskedasticity => Koenker n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 40 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nAuxiliary regression of squared residuals, Verbeek n Tests of the null hypothesis of homoskedasticity n n n n n n n n Breusch-Pagan: BP = 5931.8, p-value = 0 n Koenker: NR2 = 569*0.5818 = 331.04, p-value = 2.17E-70 n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 41 Goldfeld-Quandt Test nFor testing whether the error term variance has values sA2 and sB2 for observations from regime A and B, respectively, sA2 ¹ sB2 nRegimes can be urban vs rural area, economic prosperity vs stagnation, etc. nExample (in matrix notation): qyA = XAbA + eA, V{eA} = sA2INA (regime A) qyB = XBbB + eB, V{eB} = sB2INB (regime B) nNull hypothesis: sA2 = sB2 nTest statistic: n n n with Si: sum of squared residuals for i-th regime; follows under H0 exactly or approximately the F-distribution with NA-K and NB-K d.f. n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 42 Goldfeld-Quandt Test, cont‘d nTest procedure in three steps: 1.Sort the observations with respect to the regimes A and B 2.Separate fittings of the model to the NA and NB observations; sum of squared residuals SA and SB 3.Calculate the test statistic F n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 43 White Test nFor testing whether the error term variance is a function of the model regressors, their squares and their cross-products; generalizes the Breusch-Pagan test nAuxiliary regression of the squared OLS residuals upon xi’s, squares of xi’s, and cross-products nTest statistic: NR2 with R2 of the auxiliary regression; follows the Chi-squared distribution with the number of coefficients in the auxiliary regression as d.f. nThe number of coefficients in the auxiliary regression may become large, maybe conflicting with size of N, resulting in low power of the White test n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 44 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nWhite's test for heteroskedasticity nOLS, using observations 1-569 nDependent variable: uhat^2 n n coefficient std. error t-ratio p-value n -------------------------------------------------------------- n const -260,910 18478,5 -0,01412 0,9887 n WAGE 554,352 833,028 0,6655 0,5060 n CAPITAL 2810,43 663,073 4,238 2,63e-05 *** n OUTPUT -2573,29 512,179 -5,024 6,81e-07 *** n sq_WAGE -10,0719 9,29022 -1,084 0,2788 n X2_X3 -48,2457 14,0199 -3,441 0,0006 *** n X2_X4 58,5385 8,11748 7,211 1,81e-012 *** n sq_CAPITAL 14,4176 2,01005 7,173 2,34e-012 *** n X3_X4 -40,0294 3,74634 -10,68 2,24e-024 *** n sq_OUTPUT 27,5945 1,83633 15,03 4,09e-043 *** n n Unadjusted R-squared = 0,818136 n nTest statistic: TR^2 = 465,519295, nwith p-value = P(Chi-square(9) > 465,519295) = 0 Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 45 Contents nViolations of V{ε} = s2 IN: Illustrations and Consequences nHeteroskedasticity nTests against Heteroskedasticity nGLS Estimation nAutocorrelation Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 46 Transformed Model Satisfying Gauss-Markov Assumptions nModel: n yi = xi’β + εi with V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 nDivision by hi results in n yi /hi = (xi /hi)’β + εi /hi n with a homoskedastic error term n V{εi /hi} = σi2/hi2 = σ2 nOLS applied to the transformed model gives n nThis estimator is an example of the “generalized least squares” (GLS) or “weighted least squares” (WLS) estimator Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 47 Properties of GLS Estimators nThe GLS estimator n n n is a least squares estimator; standard properties of OLS estimator apply nThe covariance matrix of the GLS estimator is n n nUnbiased estimator of the error term variance n n nUnder the assumption of normality of errors, t- and F-tests can be used; for large N, these properties hold approximately without normality assumption Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 48 Generalized Least Squares Estimator nA GLS or WLS estimator is a least squares estimator where each observation is weighted by a non-negative factor nExample: n yi = xi’β + εi with V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 qDivision by hi results in a model with homoskedastic error terms n V{εi /hi} = σi2/hi2 = σ2 qOLS applied to the transformed model results in the weighted least squares (GLS) estimator with wi = hi-2: q q qTransformation corresponds to the multiplication of each observation with the non-negative factor hi-1 nThe GLS estimator is a least squares estimator that weights the i-th observation with wi = hi-2, so that the Gauss-Markov assumptions are satisfied n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 49 Feasible GLS Estimator nIs a GLS estimator with estimated weights wi = hi-2 nSubstitution of the weights wi = hi-2 by estimates ĥi-2 n n nFeasible (or estimated) GLS or FGLS or EGLS estimator nFor consistent estimates ĥi, the FGLS and GLS estimators are asymptotically equivalent nFor small values of N, FGLS estimators are in general not BLUE nFor consistent estimates ĥi, the FGLS estimator is consistent and asymptotically efficient with covariance matrix (estimate for s2: based on FGLS residuals) n nWarning: The transformed model is uncentered n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 50 Multiplicative Heteroskedasticity nAssume V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 = σ2exp{zi‘a} nThe auxiliary regression n log ei2 = log σ2 + zi‘a + vi n provides a consistent estimator a for α nTransform the model yi = xi’β + εi with V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 by dividing through ĥi from ĥi2 = exp{zi‘a} nError term in this model is (approximately) homoskedastic nApplying OLS to the transformed model gives the FGLS estimator for β n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 51 FGLS Estimation nIn the following steps (yi = xi’β + εi): 1.Calculate the OLS estimates b for b 2.Compute the OLS residuals ei = yi – xi‘b 3.Regress log(ei2) on zi and a constant, obtaining estimates a for α n log ei2 = log σ2 + zi‘a + vi 4.Compute ĥi2 = exp{zi‘a}, transform all variables and estimate the transformed model to obtain the FGLS estimators: n yi /ĥi = (xi /ĥi)’β + εi /ĥi 5.The consistent estimate s² for σ2, based on the FGLS-residuals, and the consistently estimated covariance matrix n n are part of the standard output when regressing the transformed model 5. n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 52 FGLS Estimation in GRETL nPreparatory steps: 1.Calculate the OLS estimates b for b of yi = xi’β + εi 2.Under the assumption V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2, conduct an auxiliary regression for ei2 or log(ei2) that provides estimates ĥi2 3.Define wtvar as weight variable with wtvar i = (ĥi2)-1 nFGLS estimation: 4.Model => Other linear models => Weighted least squares 5.Use of variable wtvar as “Weight variable”: both the dependent and all independent variables are multiplied with the square roots (wtvar)1/2 n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 53 Labor Demand Function nFor Belgian companies, 1996; Verbeek n n n n n n n n n n nLog-transformation is expected to reduce heteroskedasticity Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 54 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nEstimated function n log(labour) = b1 + b2*log(wage) + b3*log(output) + b4*log(capital) n The table shows: OLS estimates and standard errors: without (s.e.) and with White correction (White s.e.); FGLS estimates and standard errors n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 55 b1 wage output capital OLS coeff 6.177 -0.928 0.990 -0.0037 s.e. 0.246 0.071 0.026 0.0188 White s.e. 0.293 0.086 0.047 0.0377 FGLS coeff 5.895 -0.856 1.035 -0.0569 s.e. 0.248 0.072 0.027 0.0216 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nFor Belgian companies, 1996; Verbeek n n n n n n n n n n nBreusch-Pagan test: BP = 66.23, p-value: 1,42E-13 Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 56 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nFor Belgian companies, 1996; Verbeek n Weights estimated assuming multiplicative heteroskedasticity n n n n n n n n n n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 57 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nEstimated function n log(labour) = b1 + b2*log(wage) + b3*log(output) + b4*log(capital) n The table shows: OLS estimates and standard errors: without (s.e.) and with White correction (White s.e.); FGLS estimates and standard errors n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 58 b1 wage output capital OLS coeff 6.177 -0.928 0.990 -0.0037 s.e. 0.246 0.071 0.026 0.0188 White s.e. 0.293 0.086 0.047 0.0377 FGLS coeff 5.895 -0.856 1.035 -0.0569 s.e. 0.248 0.072 0.027 0.0216 Labor Demand Function, cont’d nSome comments: nReduction of standard errors in FGLS estimation as compared to heteroskedasticity-robust estimation, efficiency gains nComparison with OLS estimation not appropriate nFGLS estimates differ slightly from OLS estimates; effect of capital is indicated to be relevant (p-value: 0.0086) nR2 of FGLS estimation is misleading qModel has no intercept, is uncentered qComparison with that of OLS estimation not appropriate, explained variables are different n Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 59 Your Homework 1.Use the data set “labour2” of Verbeek for the following analyses: a)(i) Estimate (OLS) the model for log(labor) with regressors log(output) and log(wage); (ii) generate a display of the residuals which may indicate heteroskedasticity of the error term. b)Perform (i) the Koenker test with h(zi‘a) = exp{zi‘a} and the White test (ii) without and (iii) with interactions; explain the tests and compare the results; use zi = (log(capitali), log(outputi), log(wagei))’. c)For the model of a): Compare (i) the OLS and (ii) the White standard errors with HC0 of the estimated coefficients. d)Estimate (i) the model of a), using FGLS and weights obtained in the auxiliary regression of the Koenker test in b); (ii) comment on the estimates of the coefficients, the standard errors, and the R2 of this model and those of c)(i) and (ii). Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 60 Your Homework, cont’d 2.Transform the variables of the model yi = xi’β + εi with E{εi} = 0 and V{εi} = σi2 = σ2hi2 for i = 1, …, N, by dividing each variable through hi: yi -> yi /hi and (xi)’ -> (xi /hi)’. Show that for the model in transformed variables, n yi /hi = (xi /hi)’β + εi /hi n the Gauss-Markov assumptions A3 and A4 are satisfied. Oct 27, 2017 Hackl, Econometrics, Lecture 4 61