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American Economic Association
The Deadweight Loss of Christmas
Author(s): Joel Waldfogel
Source: The American Economic Review, Vol. 83, No. 5 (Dec., 1993), pp. 1328-1336
Published by: American Economic Association
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2117564
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The Deadweight Loss of Christmas
By JOEL WALDFOGEL*
When economists comment on holiday
gift-giving, it is usually to condone the
healthy effect of spending on the macroeconomy.
However, an important feature of
gift-giving is that consumption choices are
made by someone other than the final consumer.
A potentially important microeconomic
aspect of gift-giving is that gifts may
be mismatched with the recipients' preferences.
In the standard microeconomic
framework of consumer choice, the best a
gift-giver can do with, say, $10 is to duplicate
the choice that the recipient would
have made. While it is possible for a giver to
choose a gift which the recipient ultimately
values above its price-for example, if the
recipient is not perfectly informed-it is
more likely that the gift will leave the recipient
worse off than if she had made her own
consumption choice with an equal amount
of cash. In short, gift-giving is a potential
source of deadweight loss.
This paper gives estimates of the deadweight
loss of holiday gift-giving based on
surveys given to Yale undergraduates.' I
find that holiday gift-giving destroys between
10 percent and a third of the value of
gifts. While these recipients may be unrepresentative
of the U.S. population, their gifts
are not necessarily unrepresentative. Holiday
expenditures average $40 billion per
year, implying that a conservative estimate
of the deadweight loss of Christmas' is a
tenth as large as estimates of the deadweight
loss of income taxation. I also explore
how deadweight loss and the tendency
to give cash gifts vary with the relationship
and age difference between giver and recipient.
I find that gifts from friends and "significant
others" are most efficient, while
noncash gifts from members of the extended
family are least efficient and destroy
a third of their value. I develop a simple
expected-utility model to explain the decision
to give cash, as opposed to in-kind
gifts. The data are consistent with the model:
cash gifts are most common from the sorts
of givers whose noncash gifts have the lowest
expected value to recipients (given their
cost) and high variability in recipient valua-
tion.
I. Theory
A. The Consequencesof Gift-Giving
Students are customarily taught in economics
courses that unfettered consumer
choice leads the consumer to higher utility
than constrained choice. Thus, for example,
government grants-in-kind are inefficient,
unless the consumer would have chosen to
consume at least the amount of the good
granted, had the grant been cash.
One can analyze the possible inefficiency
of gift-giving from the recipient standpoint
*Department of Economics, Yale University, New
Haven, CT 06520. I am grateful to my colleagues at
Yale for lunchtime conversation which refined this
idea.
1Much existing research examines the theoretical
desirability of cash, as opposed to in-kind transfers
(e.g., Maria Schmundt et al., 1975; Ronald A. Dye and
Rick Antle, 1986; Charles Blackorby and David Donaldson,
1988). I am aware of no empirical research on
recipient valuation of transfers, except Eugene
Smolensky et al. (1977), which presents estimates of
the value of government in-kind transfer programs to
benefits recipients. Their results are compared with
mine below.
2References to the deadweight loss of Christmas
should be understood to apply equally to Hanukkah
and other holidays with gift-giving rituals.
1328
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VOL. 83 NO. 5 WALDFOGEL:THE DEADWEIGHT LOSS OF CHRISTMAS 1329
b
U 1
at c' b'
GiftGood(G)
FIGURE 1. GIFT-GIVING AND DEADWEIGHT Loss
Notes:The amountof the gift good (G) is on the horizontalaxis.The verticalaxis
measures all other goods, in dollars. Point I on budget line aa' describes the
recipient'sholdingsof the gift good and all othergoodspriorto receiptof the gift,
whenherutilityis UO.Whenshe receivesa'c'unitsof the giftgood,her holdingsare
representedby point III on budgetline bb'.At this pointher utilityis U2.Had she
receiveda cash gift of equalcost to the giver,she could have chosen any point on
budgetline bb',andshewouldhavechosenpointII,withutilityU1.Becausetheutility
of the bundlechosenfreelyby the recipientexceedsutilityof an equal-costbundle
that includesthe gift, there is a deadweightloss. In dollars,this deadweightloss is
distancecb on theverticalaxis.
in an indifference-curve diagram.3 Consider
Figure 1, with the gift good (G) on the
horizontal axis and all other goods (A, with
PA= 1) on the vertical axis. Point I depicts
the gift recipient's position prior to receiving
this year's gift. Suppose that the giver is
planning to spend $x. If the gift comes in
the form of cash, the recipient moves to
budget constraint bb', on which she may
choose any point. Given this unconstrained
choice, she chooses point II. In this case the
gift is completely efficient: $x is the minimum
expenditure necessary to increase utility
from UO)to U1.
If, instead of cash, the gift consists of only
the gift good, then the recipient receives
(x /PG) units of gift and arrives at point III,
also on budget constraint bb'. The resultant
recipient utility is U2. This gift is inefficient
because the recipient could have reached
this level of utility with a cash gift smaller
than $x. The dashed budget constraint
shows the minimum additional expenditure
necessary to achieve U2; it is distance ac,
3Giving may confer utility on the giver. The present
note is concerned only with the recipient. Even if the
sum of giver and recipient valuations of gifts exceed
their price, deadweight loss is present if the recipient
values the gift below her valuation of a gift of equal
cost that the giver finds equally enjoyable to give.
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1330 THEAMERICANECONOMIC REVIEW DECEMBER 1993
which is less than the cost of the gift, distance
ab. Hence, distance cb is the deadweight
loss associated with the gift.4
The size of the deadweight loss depends
on both the giver's acquaintance with the
recipient's preferences and the recipient's
knowledge of her own preferences. If the
recipient is perfectly informed about gift
items, then the giver can do no better than
to give cash; and the better the giver knows
the recipient's preferences, the closer the
giver can come to reproducing the
recipient's choice. However, if recipients are
imperfectly informed, the giver may be able
to choose a gift that the recipient would not
have chosen but which makes the recipient
better off than a cash amount equal to the
cost of the gift. In this case, it is possible for
a gift to create, rather than destroy, value.
The better the giver knows the recipient's
preferences-including, possibly, preferences
the recipient is unaware of-the more
likely it is that the giver will choose a gift
that the recipient values above its cost and
will thereby create value through giving.
B. Cash Gifts and the Goals of Gift-Givers
Givers sometimes give cash and sometimes
give gifts in kind. This section describes
a simple expected-utility model to
explain the observed pattern of cash-giving.
As far as the giver is concerned, the value
that the recipient will attach to a noncash
gift is a random variable g. Givers perceive
that recipients evaluate their gifts according
to the utility function U(g). If the giver has
decided to spend an amount go on a gift,
the giver's problem is to decide whether to
give cash, which confers utility of U(go) on
the recipient, or a noncash gift, which has
expected utility of ff(g)U(g) dg, where f( *)
is the density function of recipient valuations.
This density function has interesting
interpretations. If the recipient is perfectly
informed and the giver has exactly the recipient's
knowledge, f(f) is a spike at go.
For a person who knows the recipient "better
than she knows herself," whose gift costing
go may have value to the recipient
above go, f(f) includes probability density
for g > go. The density of recipient valuations
of gifts from a giver ignorant of the
recipient's preferences has a low mean and
a high variance.
Giver maximization of recipient utility
implies that the giver gives cash if the giver's
perception of the recipient's utility of go in
cash exceeds the giver's expected recipient
utility of a gift costing the giver go. Givers
whose gifts share the same distribution of
recipient valuations may differ according to
the degree of risk aversion they attribute to
recipients. Hence, some givers of a type give
cash while others give in-kind gifts. (Some
grandparent gifts are cash, and some are
noncash, even if all grandparents' gifts share
the same distribution of recipient valua-
tions.)
The observable implication of this model
is that cash gifts are more likely from givers
aware that their noncash gifts have lower
expected utility. Hence, cash gifts are more
likely from givers who give low-value noncash
gifts, relative to their costs. If givers
perceive recipients to be risk-averse, then
givers whose noncash gifts have higher variance
in value will also be more likely to give
cash, all else constant.
II. Data
In the first of the two surveys, completed
voluntarily by 86 intermediate microeconomics
students in January 1993, gift recipients
were asked to estimate the total
amounts paid (by the givers) for all of the
holiday gifts the respondents received in
1992. Students were asked their gender and
whether they exchanged any of their gifts.
Finally, students were asked to place a value
on their gifts, based on their willingness to
pay for the gifts. The question was worded
as follows:
If you made no exchanges, think of the
gifts you received directly.
4The fact that gifts may typically be exchanged
eliminates this problem only in principle. Because of
transaction costs and perhaps guilt, many inefficient
gifts are not exchanged. See the results in Sections II
and III.
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VOL. 83 NO. 5 WALDFOGEL: THE DEADWEIGHT LOSS OF CHRISTMAS 1331
If you made exchanges, think of the
gifts you did not exchange as well as
the things you obtained in exchange
for gifts you received directly.
Apart from any sentimental value of
the items, if you did not have them,
how much would you be willing to pay
to obtain them?
The second survey, given in March 1993,
gathered data on each respondent's individual
gifts. Fifty-eight respondents gave usable
information on 278 gifts.5 The survey
asked respondents to describe each of their
gifts, identify the givers' ages and relationships
to the recipient (parent, aunt or uncle,
sibling, grandparent, friend, or "significant
other"), estimate the prices that the givers
paid for the gifts, and indicate whether the
gifts were exchanged. The gift description
allows gifts to be divided into three categories:
cash, gift certificates, and gifts. The
respondents were asked to estimate the
value of the gifts as the
... amount of cash such that you are
indifferent between the gift and the
cash, not counting the sentimental
value of the gift. If you exchanged the
original gift, assess the value of the
object you got in exchange for the
original gift. If you exchanged the original
gift for cash, put the cash amount
you received here.
The survey also asked gender, age, family
income, and the amount the recipient spent
on holiday gifts for others in 1992. Note
that valuations from both surveys take exchanges
into account.
The difference between the two surveys'
valuation methods may be described as follows:
the first survey asks for the maximum
the respondent would pay for her gifts, while
the second survey asks for the minimum the
respondent would accept in lieu of the gifts.
As Jack L. Knetsch and J. A. Sinden (1984)
TABLE 1-AVERAGE AMOUNTS PAID AND VALUES
OF GIFrS, BY RECIPIENT
Variable Survey 1 Survey 2
Amount paid ($) 438.2 508.9
Value ($)a 313.4 462.1
Percentage ratio of average value 71.5 90.8
to average price paidb
Average percentage yieldc 66.1 87.1
(3.3) (3.2)
Number of recipients 86 58
aIn survey 1, respondents valued their gifts by their
willingness to pay for them. In survey 2, respondents
valued their gifts as the money they would accept in
lieu of the gifts (see text).
bRatio of average value to average price paid.
CAverageof (valued/pricei). The standard error of
average yield is given in parentheses.
demonstrate, experimental subjects require
more in return than they are willing to pay
for similar objects. Hence, we expect valuations
to be higher-and deadweight losses
to be lower-in the second survey. The true
amount of deadweight loss lies in between.
III. Empirical Analysis
A. How Large is the DeadweightLoss?
The responses of the 86 students taking
the first survey and the 58 students taking
the second survey, are reported in Table 1.6
In survey 1, respondents estimate that
friends and family paid an average $438 for
the recipients' total gifts, but respondents
express a willingness to pay only $313, on
average, for the same gifts. Because losses
are approximately proportionate to receipts
across receipt sizes, the ratio of average
value to the average price (71.5 percent) is
close to the average ratio of value to price,
or average "yield," of 66.1 percent. A regression
of log value on log price across
recipients' total gift receipts confirms that
the relationship between value and price is
sAn observation is usable if it includes valid information
on price, value, relationship and age of giver,
age of recipient, whether the gift was cash, and whether
the gift was exchanged.
6Table 1 reports data averaged across recipients.
The remaining tables report averages across gifts.
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1332 THEAMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW DECEMBER 1993
essentially proportional:
log(valuej) = - 0.314 + 0.964log(pricei)
(0.44) (0.08)
with standard errors in parentheses and an
R2 of 65.6 percent. Forming a deadweightloss
measure from average yield indicates
that gift-giving destroys a third of gift value.
Note that the cash component of a recipient's
gifts are included in both the price and
value estimates in survey 1. Hence, the average
yield on noncash gifts is below 66.1
percent, and the deadweight loss among
noncash gifts actually exceeds one-third.
Putting aside the inclusion of cash, the valuation
by willingness to pay in survey 1 makes
one-third an upper-bound estimate of the
deadweight-loss fraction.
The 58 respondents to the second survey
estimate that $509 was paid for their gifts,
but they value these gifts at only $462. The
average yield across these recipients (87.1
percent) is quite similar to the ratio of the
average value to the average price (90.8
percent). A regression of the log value of
receipts on log prices across recipients again
confirms that value is nearly proportional to
price:
log(valuej) = - 0.618 + 1.075log(pricei)
(0.23) (0.04)
with standard errors in parentheses and an
R2 of 93.2 percent. As expected, the implied
deadweight loss is less than the results of
the first surveywould suggest. For comparability
with total receipt figures in survey 1,
cash is not excluded, so that the deadweight
loss among noncash gifts is higher. Averaged
across gifts, rather than recipients, the
average yield on noncash gifts is 83.9 percent,
suggesting a deadweight-loss fraction
of 16.1 percent (see Table 2). This is a lower
bound because of the survey-2 valuation
method.
While the survey respondents' total gift
receipts (averaging $400- 500) and family
incomes (averaging $143,000 for the 43 students
reporting family income) are unrepresentative
of the U.S. population, the fraction
of the gifts' value destroyed through
TABLE 2-AVERAGE YIELD BY PRICE OF GIFT
(EXCLUDING CASH GIFTS)
Percentage Standard
Price average error
range yield (percent) N
$0-$25 85.8 5.6 102
$26-$50 74.4 3.4 82
$51-$100 89.8 4.2 47
Over $100 88.5 4.2 47
Overall: 83.9 2.8 246
Note: Overall figures are based only on observations
with valid information about giver.
inefficient exchange need not be unrepresentative.7
First, among survey recipients
the yield ratio does not vary with family
income. Thus, while the general population
has lower average income than the survey
recipients, yield rates for survey recipients
with income nearer to the population average
do not differ from the survey average.
Second, deadweight losses are large and
significant for gifts in all price ranges, thus
including price ranges typical for gift recipients
generally. Table 2 reports the average
yield for noncash gifts in various price
ranges. Over a third of the gifts in the
survey are estimated to cost less than $25, a
range with an average yield of 85.8 percent
(with a standard error [SE] of 5.6 percent).
Nearly an additional third of gifts are estimated
to cost between $26 and $50; these
gifts have an average yield of 74.4 percent
(SE = 3.4 percent). Average yield is somewhat
higher for larger gifts, about 89 percent
for gifts estimated to cost over $50.
The fraction of gift price that is wasted
reaches a maximum of a quarter for gifts
costing between $25 and $50 and is otherwise
approximately constant at 10-15 percent.
Recall that these figures are based on
the conservative valuation method of survey
2. Whatever the average size of gifts in the
general population, if their yields are similar
to the yields on similar-sized gifts in this
7The average holiday gift expenditure per U.S. family
was $400 in 1992 (see Bureau of National Affairs,
1992).
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VOL. 83 NO. S WALDFOGEL: THE DEADWEIGHT LOSS OF CHRISTMAS 1333
TABLE 3-GiFr YIELD AND TENDENCY To GIVE CASH, BY IDENTITY OF GIVER
Variable Aunt, uncle Sibling Parents Significant other Grandparent Friend All
A. Yieldof Noncash Gifts:
Number of observations 24 49 113 8 15 31 246
Value ($)a 40.5 23.5 133.3 24.1 56.1 22.1 77.6
Price ($)b 64.6 28.3 135.6 25.4 75.9 25.3 84.0
Percent yieldc 64.4 86.2 86.5 91.7 62.9 98.8 83.9
(7.0) (5.2) (3.2) (8.3) (10.3) (14.7) (2.8)
Yield standard error 34.1 36.1 33.9 23.6 40.0 82.0 43.9
Percentage exchangedd 20.8 6.1 9.7 0.0 13.3 6.5 9.8
B. TendencyTo Give Cash:
Number of observations 28 52 125 8 26 33 278
Agee 44 20 48 23 73 27 41
Percentage cashf 14.3 5.8 9.6 0.0 42.3 6.1 11.5
aEstimated value of gift to recipient.
bRecipient's estimate of price giver paid for the gift.
CAverageof ratio (valueJ/pricei); standard errors of average yield in parentheses.
dFraction of noncash gifts exchanged.
eAge of giver (recipients are all aged 18-22).
fPercentage of gifts that are cash or gift certificates.
sample, then the deadweight loss will be at
least 10 percent of the price of gifts.
B. Determinantsof Gift Yieldand
Cash-Giving
This section examines gift yields and the
tendency to give cash, by type of giver, to
answer the following questions. First, how
does the deadweight loss vary with familiarity
of the giver with the recipient's preferences?
We expect the deadweight loss to
increase with the social distance between
giver and recipient, as measured by the nature
of the relationship (aunt or uncle, sibling,
parent, significant other, grandparent,
and friend) and the age difference between
giver and recipient. Second, when do givers
give cash? Are cash gifts more likely when
the expected utility of noncash gifts is likely
to be low?
The top panel of Table 3 reports the
fraction of gifts exchanged, as well as the
average value, price, and yield of gifts, by
identity of the giver. The table also reports
the standard error of gift yield. The table
clearly indicates that gifts from givers bearing
different relationships to the recipients
vary significantly in their suitability to recipient
preferences. Excluding cash gifts, the
fraction of gifts exchanged gives a rough
measure of how well the gifts match the
recipients' preferences. Aunt/uncle and
grandparent gifts are most likely to be exchanged,
at rates of 20.8 percent and 13.3
percent, respectively. Ten percent of noncash
parent gifts are exchanged, as are between
6 and 7 percent of gifts of siblings
and friends. None of the (few) gifts from
significant others were exchanged.
Even after accounting for exchanges,
aunt/uncle and grandparent gifts have by
far the lowest yields (among noncash gifts)
at 64.4 percent (SE = 7.0 percent) and 62.9
percent (10.3 percent). Gifts from friends
and significant others have the highest average
yields, of 98.8 percent (SE = 14.7 percent)
and 91.7 percent (SE = 8.3 percent),
respectively. The average yield of parent
and sibling gifts is about 85 percent (with
standard errors of 3-5 percent).
The size of the deadweight loss, broken
down by the relationship between giver and
recipient, is interesting not only in itself, but
also because it allows one to examine
whether the tendency to give cash varies in
accordance with the expected-utility-maximization
theory described above. In particular,
the tendency to give cash is expected to
be higher for givers with lower mean (and
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1334 THEAMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW DECEMBER 1993
higher variance) yield ratios.8 Table 3B
shows the fraction of cash gifts, by type of
giver. Overall, 11.5 percent of gifts are cash.
The tendency to give cash is strongly related
the deadweight losses of a giver type's noncash
gifts. Cash gifts are by far most common
from grandparents (42.9 percent), the
group whose noncash gifts have the lowest
average yield (62.9 percent). Grandparents
also have the highest yield standard error,
except for friends, whose standard error is
more than doubled by two yield observations
of over 300 percent. Aunts and uncles
have the second-highest tendency to give
cash (14.3 percent) and are a close second
for lowest yield (64.4 percent), although
their yield variability is not very high. At the
other extreme, friends, siblings, and significant
others give at most 6 percent cash
gifts and have average yields between 86
percent and 99 percent. Apart from the
outlier-influenced friend standard error,
these groups' gifts have low variation in
recipient valuation. These facts are consistent
with expected-utility maximization.
We can investigate the determinants of
deadweight loss and the tendency to give
cash more systematically using multivariate
statistical analysis that simultaneously accounts
for age and the relationship between
giver and recipient.9 Table 4 presents regressions
of log(value) on log(price), relationship
dummies, and terms in the age
difference between giver and recipient. Regression
specification (1) shows that value is
approximately proportional to price (across
gifts, as it is across recipients). Specification
(2) includes a cash or gift-certificate dummy,
which sharply raises the proportionality factor
between value and price. In specification
(3), the constant is replaced by relationship
dummies. Gifts from siblings and significant
others entail the smallest losses, while gifts
from aunts/uncles and grandparents entail
the largest losses.
Specification (4) adds controls for the age
difference (and difference squared) between
giver and recipient. Increasing age differences
decrease value, up to about 30 years
of age difference. After accounting for age
difference, parent gifts appear to be extremely
efficient, followed by significant others,
friends, and siblings. As before, gifts
from grandparents and aunts/uncles carry
the largest deadweight losses, although significance
levels are lower than before. The
estimates in Table 4 confirm what is apparent
in the raw data. The fraction of gifts lost
increases with the social distance between
giver and recipient. Losses are larger for the
extended family than for the immediate
family, and losses increase with the age difference
between giver and recipient.10
The last column of Table 4 reports a
probit on whether gifts are cash (or gift
certificates) using relationship dummies and
terms in the age difference between giver
and recipient as explanatory variables. As
predicted by the expected-utility theory, all
factors lowering recipient valuation of gifts
(and therefore raising deadweight loss) raise
the probability that a giver will choose cash.
While the pattern of cash-giving across
types of givers is consistent with expected
utility, the level of noncash giving is, at first
blush, puzzlingly high. The average yields
for gifts from all sources except friends and
significant others are significantly below
unity, indicating that giving noncash gifts
destroys not only value but also utility for
recipients who are not risk-loving. Noncash
8Checking this implication is complicated slightly by
the fact that the mean and variance of noncash gift
yield rates are only observed for givers who choose to
give an in-kind gift. The distribution relevant to the
giver's decision of whether to give cash, the distribution
of gift yields that would result if all gifts were
in-kind is not observed. It is in principle possible that
the observed pattern of yield means and variances is
induced by the tendencies of different types of givers to
give cash. In practice, this seems very unlikely. The
groups with the highest proportions of cash gifts have
the lowest yields and among the highest yield variances.
Selection would cause low means and high variances
among their noncash gifts only if those giving
cash would otherwise have given high-mean, low-variance
gifts. This seems implausible.
9The bottom panel of Table 3 reports average ages
of different types of givers.
10Yield is invariant with respect to gender and, as
was mentioned above, family income.
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VOL. 83 NO. 5 WALDFOGEL:THE DEADWEIGHT LOSS OF CHRISTMAS 1335
TABLE4-RESULTS ONSOCIALPROXIMITYANDDEADWEIGHTLoss
ANDTHETENDENCYTOGIVECASH
Regressions (dependent variable = log(value))
Independent variable (1) (2) (3) (4) Cash probita
Constant - 0.372 - 0.346
(-3.46) (-3.24)
log(price) 1.034 1.019 0.991 1.005
(37.72) (36.76) (35.16) (34.74)
Cash or gift certificate 0.264 0.337 0.330
(2.66) (3.22) (3.15)
Parent - 0.205 -0.021 -1.112
(-1.61) (-0.13) (-2.36)
Aunt, uncle -0.510 - 0.334 -0.851
(-3.62) (-1.97) (-1.71)
Sibling -0.193 -0.241 -1.570
(-1.70) (-2.08) (-5.62)
Significant other - 0.112 -0.110 nab
(-0.57) (-0.56)
Grandparent - 0.365 - 0.306 - 0.286
(-2.36) (-1.15) (-0.38)
Friend -0.223 -0.200 -1.502
(-1.86) (-1.66) (-4.18)
Age difference -0.0157 -0.018
(-2.05) (-0.74)
Age difference squared 0.00025 0.00038
(1.76) (0.97)
R2: 0.840 0.845 0.848 0.851
N: 272 272 272 272 272
Note: Numbers in parentheses are t statistics.
aDependent variable is whether the gift is cash.
bNo gift is cash, so the coefficient cannot be identified.
gift-giving may nevertheless arise for (at
least) two reasons. First, the giver may derive
some utility from giving the particular
gift, which he would not derive from giving
cash or another gift. Indeed, one may view
the deadweight losses as measures of giver
satisfaction. A second reason why noncash
gifts are so common is that a stigma may be
attached to giving cash gifts. Introspection
suggests that cash gifts are socially awkward
between some types of givers and recipients.
Of course, this stigma seems to have dissipated
where it would be most destructive:
grandparents, aunts, and uncles are most
willing to give cash.
C. Uncle Sam versusSanta Claus
Government grants in kind are often criticized,
on theoretical grounds, for valuedestruction.
There is little existing research
on the fraction of value destroyed by such
programs, but it is interesting to compare
the available evidence on government valuedestruction
through in-kind transfers with
the present evidence on gift-giving and
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1336 THEAMERICANECONOMIC REVIEW DECEMBER 1993
deadweight loss. Smolensky et al. (1977) calibrate
utility functions with demand data on
food, housing, and medical insurance, which
they use to calculate the value of various
in-kind transfers to benefit recipients. They
find that food stamps and rent supplements,
which most resemble cash, generate no
deadweight loss, while the deadweight losses
for public housing, Medicare, and Medicaid
are between 9 percent and 39 percent, assuming
an elasticity of substitution (o-) of
0.5, and between 5 percent and 24 percent
assuming o-= 1.0. The simulated proportionate
deadweight losses of government
in-kind transfers are thus no larger, and in
many cases are smaller, than the deadweight
losses of holiday gift-giving."
IV. Conclusion
Estimates in this paper indicate that between
a tenth and a third of the value of
holiday gifts is destroyed by gift-giving. Because
average losses of at least 10 percent
hold for all gift price ranges in the sample,
the lower-bound proportionate loss estimates
may be reasonably applied to other
populations. While the generality of these
results is not settled, the deadweight losses
arising from holiday gift-giving may well be
large: holiday gift expenditures in 1992 totaled
$38 billion according to one estimate.12
If between a tenth and a third of this spending
was wasted, then the deadweight loss of
1992 holiday gift-giving was between $4 billion
and $13 billion.
To develop a feel for the significance of
the deadweight loss of Christmas, one may
compare it with an estimate of the deadweight
loss of taxation. Edgar K. Browning
(1976) estimates the total static welfare cost
of income tax to be about $50 billion dollars
(inflated to 1992 dollars using the CPI).
Thus, the annual deadweight loss of holiday
gift-giving is between a tenth and a third of
the annual static welfare losses associated
with income taxes.
REFERENCES
Blackorby, Charles and Donaldson, David,
"Cash versus Kind, Self Selection, and
Efficient Transfers," American Economic
Review, September 1988, 78, 691-700.
Browning,Edgar K., "The Marginal Cost of
Public Funds," Journal of Political Economy,
April 1976, 84, 283-98.
Dye, Ronald A. and Antle, Rick, "Cost-Minimizing
Welfare Programs," Journal of
Public Economics, July 1986, 30, 259-65.
Knetsch, Jack L. and Sinden, J. A., "Willingness
To Pay and Compensation Demanded:
Experimental Evidence of an
Unexpected Disparity in Measures of
Value," QuarterlyJournal of Economics,
August 1984, 99, 507-21.
Schmundt, Maria, Smolensky, Eugene and
Stiefel, Leanna, "When Do Recipients
Value Transfers at Their Costs?" in Irene
Lurie, ed., Integrating Income Maintenance
Programs, New York: Academic
Press, 1975, pp. 189-207.
Smolensky, Eugene, Stiefel, Leanna, Schmundt,
Maria and Plotnick, Robert, "In-Kind
Transfers and the Size Distribution of
Income," in Marilyn Moon and Eugene
Smolensky, eds., Improving Measures of
Economic Well-Being, New York: Academic
Press, 1977, pp. 131-53.
Bureau of National Affairs, Daily Report for
Executives, 23 November 1992.
Surveyof CurrentBusiness, U.S. Department of
Commerce, Washington, DC: U.S. Government
Printing Office, various issues.
11It should be noted that the total deadweight loss
of government transfers includes not only the effect of
misallocation of transfers, discussed here, but also the
excess burden of the taxes used to finance the trans-
fers.
12A November 1992 survey released by the Conference
Board indicated that U.S. households planned to
spend an average of $400 on holiday gifts. The survey
was conducted by National Family Opinion and was
based on 5,000 households (see Bureau of National
Affairs, 1992). One obtains similar estimates of the
amount of holiday gift expenditure from seasonally
unadjusted retail sales figures. Between 1989 and 1992,
the December figure averaged $193.9 billion (in December
1992 dollars), compared with $163.4 billion for
November and $143.0 billion for January. Estimating
holiday gift expenditures as average December retail
sales less average retail sales in adjacent months gives
a range between $30.5 billion and $50.9 billion (see
Surveyof CurrentBusiness).
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