The social-psychological reality of conspiracy beliefs: How the sense of precarity and adherence to conspiracy beliefs are intertwined Lena Adamus [magdalena.adamus@econ.muni.cz] 18.11.2024 Brno Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Misinformation and disinformation Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Conspiracy mentality conspiracy beliefs Irrational beliefs Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Conspiracy mentality conspiracy narratives Irrational beliefs Globally more than 20% of people believe in at least one COVID-related conspiracy theory Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Conspiracy mentality conspiracy narratives Irrational beliefs Globally more than 20% of people believe in at least one COVID-related conspiracy Decreased science acceptance Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB Increased non-normative socio-political behaviour ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Conspiracy mentality conspiracy narratives Irrational beliefs Globally more than 20% of people believe in at least one COVID-related conspiracy Decreased science acceptance Definitions: conspiracy and epistemically suspect beliefs Surge of ESB Increased non-normative socio-political behaviour Prejudice against certain social groups ESB (epistemically suspect beliefs) cover a wide range of irrational, paranormal, conspiracy and pseudoscientific beliefs that contradict standard scientific and naturalistic views about the world and have potentially negative societal impact Conspiracy mentality conspiracy narratives Irrational beliefs Globally more than 20% of people believe in at least one COVID-related conspiracy Decreased science acceptance Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Conspiracy Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Conspiracy mentality Conspiracy Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Conspiracy mentality Conspiracy Uscinski, 2018 Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Uscinski, 2018 Explanations of events or circumstances pinpointing a powerful group as culprits acting secretly and maliciously for their own benefit and against the common good Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Uscinski, 2018 Explanations of events or circumstances pinpointing a powerful group as culprits acting secretly and maliciously for their own benefit and against the common good Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Uscinski, 2018 A theory need to not be necessarily false to be considered conspiracist. Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Uscinski, 2018 The key aspect is the lack of sufficient evidence supporting it Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Uscinski, 2018 Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Uscinski, 2018 An individual’s belief in a specific conspiracy theory Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Conspiracy mentality Uscinski, 2018 Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Conspiracy belief Conspiracy mentality Uscinski, 2018 General disposition to see events as caused by conspiracies Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Uscinski, 2018 Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Once proven a conspiracy theory can be considered an actual conspiracy Uscinski, 2018 Conspiracy beliefs, theories, mentality and real-life conspiracies Conspiracy theory Once proven a conspiracy theory can be considered an actual conspiracy Conspiracy Uscinski, 2018 Antecedents of CBs Why people endorse CBs? Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Individual level variables (see Stasielowicz, 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Individual level variables (see Stasielowicz, 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Socio-demographic characteristics, cognitive ability, conspiracy thinking, uncertainty avoidance, need for structure and closure, coping strategies, anxiety, powerlessness, values and beliefs Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Individual level variables (see Stasielowicz, 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Existential threat model (see van Prooijen, 2020) Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Individual level variables (see Stasielowicz, 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Existential threat model (see van Prooijen, 2020) The existential threat model assumes that the experience of existential threats triggers sense-making processes that may eventually result in the endorsement of CBs blaming outgroups for the situation Antecedents of CBs Information deficit model (see Ecker et al., 2022) Individual level variables (see Stasielowicz, 2022) Why people endorse CBs? Existential threat model (see van Prooijen, 2020) The existential threat model assumes that the experience of existential threats triggers sense-making processes that may eventually result in the endorsement of CBs blaming outgroups for the situation Structural factors • Structural factors •Structural factors Structural factors •Structural factors = social or institutional conditions that shape individuals’ opportunities and experiences in society; • Structural factors •Structural factors = social or institutional conditions that shape individuals’ opportunities and experiences in society; •Why they are important? Structural factors •Structural factors = social or institutional conditions that shape individuals’ opportunities and experiences in society; •Why they are important? Variation in the type and strength of endorsed CBs between the countries; • Structural factors •Structural factors = social or institutional conditions that shape individuals’ opportunities and experiences in society; •Why they are important? Variation in the type and strength of endorsed CBs between the countries; •Objective conditions vs subjective appraisal • Definitions: precarity Precarity Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation (i.e., a belief they are worse off compared to their desired social status), Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation, social exclusion and marginalization, Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation, social exclusion and marginalization, low prestige and esteem, Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation, social exclusion and marginalization, low prestige and esteem, and limited mobility across hierarchically arranged social rungs Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Understood as subjective appraisal of economic insecurity and uncertainty Apart from subjective appraisal of the financial situation (also referred to as financial insecurity), the experience of precarity encompasses relative deprivation, social exclusion and marginalization, low prestige and esteem, and limited mobility across hierarchically arranged social rungs and as such is persistently associated with the sense of existential threat Multidimensional phenomenon associated with social status Definitions: precarity Precarity Poverty Definitions: precarity Precarity Poverty Poverty, once accommodated, may be less of a stressor compared to acute economic shocks and the experience of economic anxiety (Adamus & Grežo, 2021) The research also explains that people experiencing economic anxiety may become (excessively) suspicious of certain groups – particularly economic, social and political elites – whom they believe to be hostile and responsible for the dire socioeconomic situation. Consequently, CBs become psychological defensive or coping mechanisms (Bukowski et al., 2017; Johnson-Schlee, 2019; Jolley & Paterson, 2020; Kraus et al., 2012; Marchlewska et al., 2017) used as an explanation of an individual’s disadvantaged position in society (Adam-Troian et al., 2023). The blame shifting may be associated with lower trust towards institutions and the establishment as being responsible for exploiting and plotting against ordinary people (Jovančević & Milićević, 2020; Meuer & Imhoff, 2021; Wagner-Egger et al., 2022). The literature posits that people experiencing economic anxiety report an enhanced sense of anomie, which, in turn, elicits distrust in authorities and the political system, a sense of loss of control, resignation and powerlessness (Adam-Troian et al., 2023; Ballafkih et al., 2017; Salvador Casara et al., 2022). This may be further aggravated by perceptions of inequality and relative deprivation (Jetten et al., 2022; Salvador Casara et al., 2022; Willis et al., 2022). Both inequality and deprivation are seen as a threat to one’s economic resilience and, thus, seeking to regain control over life circumstances, individuals may more easily fall prey to CBs (Adger et al., 2020). Definitions: precarity Precarity Poverty People experiencing economic anxiety may become (excessively) suspicious of certain groups – particularly economic, social and political elites – whom they believe to be hostile and responsible for the dire socioeconomic situation. Definitions: precarity Precarity Poverty People experiencing economic anxiety may become (excessively) suspicious of certain groups – particularly economic, social and political elites – whom they believe to be hostile and responsible for the dire socioeconomic situation. Consequently, CBs become psychological defensive or coping mechanisms (Bukowski et al., 2017; Johnson-Schlee, 2019; Jolley & Paterson, 2020; Kraus et al., 2012; Marchlewska et al., 2017) used as an explanation of an individual’s disadvantaged position in society (Adam-Troian et al., 2023). The blame shifting may be associated with lower trust towards institutions and the establishment as being responsible for exploiting and plotting against ordinary people (Jovančević & Milićević, 2020; Meuer & Imhoff, 2021; Wagner-Egger et al., 2022). The literature posits that people experiencing economic anxiety report an enhanced sense of anomie, which, in turn, elicits distrust in authorities and the political system, a sense of loss of control, resignation and powerlessness (Adam-Troian et al., 2023; Ballafkih et al., 2017; Salvador Casara et al., 2022). This may be further aggravated by perceptions of inequality and relative deprivation (Jetten et al., 2022; Salvador Casara et al., 2022; Willis et al., 2022). Both inequality and deprivation are seen as a threat to one’s economic resilience and, thus, seeking to regain control over life circumstances, individuals may more easily fall prey to CBs (Adger et al., 2020). Definitions: precarity Precarity Definitions: precarity Precarity Associated psychological concepts: Economic/financial anxiety Financial worry Definitions: precarity Precarity Associated psychological concepts: Economic/financial anxiety Financial worry Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: Precarity may be associated with various harmful outcomes: Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: Precarity may be associated with various harmful outcomes: decline in mental and physical health, Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: Precarity may be associated with various harmful outcomes: decline in mental and physical health, lower educational attainment, Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: Precarity may be associated with various harmful outcomes: decline in mental and physical health, lower educational attainment, deterioration of cognitive abilities, such as analytic and scientific thinking (de Bruijn & Antonides, 2020; Fiksenbaum et al., 2017; Haushofer & Fehr, 2014). Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: These outcomes are among protective factors that insulate against the endorsement of CBs (Erlich et al., 2023; Swami et al., 2014). Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the individual level: These outcomes are among protective factors that insulate against the endorsement of CBs (Erlich et al., 2023; Swami et al., 2014). Thus, if precarity has debilitating effects on cognition, then it is possible for its damaging consequences to include an enhanced CBs endorsement as well. Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the group level: Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the group level: Precariat experiences enhanced levels of existential threats associated with permanent (financial) insecurity and... Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the group level: Precariat experiences enhanced levels of existential threats associated with permanent (financial) insecurity and... may thus show more anti-establishment sentiments and distrust towards political elites (outgroups) whom they hold responsible for the dire situation. Why should precarity be associated with CBs? Precarity At the group level: Precariat experiences enhanced levels of existential threats associated with permanent (financial) insecurity and... may thus show more anti-establishment sentiments and distrust towards political elites (outgroups) whom they hold responsible for the dire situation. This may make people who experience precarity more prone to endorse CBs and, in line with the sociofunctional model, use them to explain their own disadvantaged position, shift the blame from themselves, identify the malevolent culprits, and demand that they be punished (Adam- Troian et al., 2023; Douglas et al., 2019; Gabriel et al., 2023; Standing, 2011; van Prooijen, 2023; van Prooijen & van Vugt, 2018). Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Adam-Troian et al., (2023). Of precarity and conspiracy: Introducing a socio-functional model of conspiracy beliefs Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Replication Adam-Troian et al., 2023 Adam-Troian et al., (2023). Of precarity and conspiracy: Introducing a socio-functional model of conspiracy beliefs Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Adamus et al., 2024 Conspiracy beliefs Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Adamus et al., 2024 Conspiracy beliefs Experience of precarity Understaning the relationships between precarity and CBs Adamus et al., 2024 Conspiracy beliefs Experience of precarity Institutional trust Understaning the relationships: Doom & Gloom Understaning the relationships: Doom & Gloom Understaning the relationships: Doom & Gloom https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/j2iLz1JfolUbqGrjs_p9IMGRyIWhwgjHNHCibzFRfDUxkvF5-7mSf-ne-0S2QS crsIrn9jzv-iqcJXYczaq0uEHqFGTwD4TZojPkVTF7De-yeQayFRAZcvkyJnsIUW7WNtStU6vsfTg- Understaning the relationships: Doom & Gloom https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/j2iLz1JfolUbqGrjs_p9IMGRyIWhwgjHNHCibzFRfDUxkvF5-7mSf-ne-0S2QS crsIrn9jzv-iqcJXYczaq0uEHqFGTwD4TZojPkVTF7De-yeQayFRAZcvkyJnsIUW7WNtStU6vsfTg- https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/4y940DETyJ9vfe9YRH9nI4RDoHoL0BDtBJ1TWwi3zN4lHaMHvsVK8FXW0FkLLa VuqScPGITiAniuqn5A6gZtRo-KfUgHJMdC61IsNBbl6H6uz7y_FqdKPFWLcePS9Wz95L5GWlPTVgwv Understaning the relationships: Doom & Gloom https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/j2iLz1JfolUbqGrjs_p9IMGRyIWhwgjHNHCibzFRfDUxkvF5-7mSf-ne-0S2QS crsIrn9jzv-iqcJXYczaq0uEHqFGTwD4TZojPkVTF7De-yeQayFRAZcvkyJnsIUW7WNtStU6vsfTg- https://lh7-us.googleusercontent.com/4y940DETyJ9vfe9YRH9nI4RDoHoL0BDtBJ1TWwi3zN4lHaMHvsVK8FXW0FkLLa VuqScPGITiAniuqn5A6gZtRo-KfUgHJMdC61IsNBbl6H6uz7y_FqdKPFWLcePS9Wz95L5GWlPTVgwv age, gender, education and subjective socio-economic status measured in the first wave of the data collection Understaning the relationships Conspiracy beliefs Experience of precarity Institutional trust Understaning the relationships: LongiRepli Precarity T1 Institutional trust T1 Conspiracy beliefs T1 Precarity T2 Institutional trust T2 Conspiracy beliefs T2 Precarity T3 Institutional trust T3 Conspiracy beliefs T3 sx1 = .51*** sx2 = .54*** sm1 = .81*** sm2 = .54*** sy1 = .69*** sy2 = .52*** Model fit: x2(7) = 7.53, p = .376, CFI = 1.00, TLI = 1.00, RMSEA = .009, SRMR = .010 –.72*** .17*** –.11** –.20*** .09** –.08* Indirect presumed longitudinal path: a1*b2 = –.00, p = .96 Indirect opposite longitudinal path: a3*b4 = .00, p = .40 sy3 = .35*** sm3 = .34*** sx3 = .21*** The social psychological reality of CBs • The social psychological reality of CBs •Sense-making processes and conspiracy mentality may be an inherent aspect of human psychology but they manifest themselves more easily under specific structural conditions. • The social psychological reality of CBs •Structural factors and their associations with individual characteristics and experiences of existential threats would open an interesting avenue for understanding the psychology of CBs and developing more effective anti-CBs interventions Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety •institutional trust Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety •institutional trust •anomie Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety •institutional trust •anomie •(e.g., Alper, 2023; Cordonier et al., 2021; Hornsey et al., 2023; Hornsey & Pearson, 2022; Jetten et al., 2022) Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety •institutional trust •anomie •(e.g., Alper, 2023; Cordonier et al., 2021; Hornsey et al., 2023; Hornsey & Pearson, 2022; Jetten et al., 2022) Structural factors •quality of democratic institutions and governance •corruption •socioeconomic inequality •economic development and GDP per capita •precarity and economic anxiety •institutional trust •anomie •(e.g., Alper, 2023; Cordonier et al., 2021; Hornsey et al., 2023; Hornsey & Pearson, 2022; Jetten et al., 2022) The outline Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Subjective appraisal of structural factors Structural factors Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs ? The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs ? The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs ? The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs ? The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs The outline Individual-level factors Structural-level factors Subjective appraisal Existential threats Conspiracy beliefs