Static Games of Complete Information Mixed Strategies 62 Let’s Mix It As pointed out before, neither of the solution concepts has to exist in pure strategies Example: Rock-Paper-sCissors R P C R 0, 0 −1, 1 1, −1 P 1, −1 0, 0 −1, 1 C −1, 1 1, −1 0, 0 There are no strictly dominant pure strategies No strategy is strictly dominated (IESDS removes nothing) Each strategy is a best response to some strategy of the opponent (rationalizability removes nothing) No pure Nash equilibria: No pure strategy profile allows each player to play a best response to the strategy of the other player How to solve this? Let the players randomize their choice of pure strategies .... 63 Probability Distributions Definition 19 Let A be a finite set. A probability distribution over A is a function σ : A → [0, 1] such that � a∈A σ(a) = 1. We denote by Δ(A) the set of all probability distributions over A. We denote by supp(σ) the support of σ, that is the set of all a ∈ A satisfying σ(a) > 0. Example 20 Consider A = {a, b, c} and a function σ : A → [0, 1] such that σ(a) = 1 4 , σ(b) = 3 4 , and σ(c) = 0. Then σ ∈ Δ(A) and supp(σ) = {a, b}. 64 Mixed Strategies Let us fix a strategic-form game G = (N, (Si)i∈N , (ui)i∈N). From now on, assume that all Si are finite! Definition 21 A mixed strategy of player i is a probability distribution σ ∈ Δ(Si) over Si. We denote by Σi = Δ(Si) the set of all mixed strategies of player i. We define Σ := Σ1 × · · · × Σn, the set of all mixed strategy profiles. Recall that by Σ−i we denote the set Σ1 × · · · Σi−1 × Σi+1 × · · · × Σn Elements of Σ−i are denoted by σ−i = (σ1, . . . , σi−1, σi+1, . . . , σn). We identify each si ∈ Si with a mixed strategy σ that assigns probability one to si (and zero to other pure strategies). For example, in rock-paper-scissors, the pure strategy R corresponds to σi which satisfies σi(X) =    1 X = R 0 otherwise 65 Mixed Strategies Sometimes we assume Si = {1, . . . , mi}, here mi ∈ {1, 2, . . .}, for all i ∈ N. Then every mixed strategy σi is a vector σi = (σi(1), . . . , σi(mi))� ∈ [0, 1]mi so that σi(1) + · · · + σi(mi) = 1 66 Mixed Strategy Profiles Let σ = (σ1, . . . , σn) be a mixed strategy profile. Intuitively, we assume that each player i randomly chooses his pure strategy according to σi and independently of his opponents. Thus for s = (s1, . . . , sn) ∈ S = S1 × · · · × Sn we have that σ(s) := n� i=1 σi(si) is the probability that the players choose the pure strategy profile s according to the mixed strategy profile σ, and σ−i(s−i) := n� k�i σk (sk ) is the probability that the opponents of player i choose s−i ∈ S−i when they play according to the mixed strategy profile σ−i ∈ Σ−i. (We abuse notation a bit here: σ denotes two things, a vector of mixed strategies as well as a probability distribution on S (the same for σ−i) 67 Mixed Strategies – Example R P C R 0, 0 −1, 1 1, −1 P 1, −1 0, 0 −1, 1 C −1, 1 1, −1 0, 0 An example of a mixed strategy σ1: σ1(R) = 1 2 , σ1(P) = 1 3 , σ1(C) = 1 6 . Sometimes we write σ1 as (1 2 (R), 1 3 (P), 1 6 (C)), or only (1 2 , 1 3 , 1 6 ) if the order of pure strategies is fixed. Consider a mixed strategy profile (σ1, σ2) where σ1 = (1 2 (R), 1 3 (P), 1 6 (C)) and σ2 = (1 3 (R), 2 3 (P), 0(C)). Then the probability σ(R, P) that the pure strategy profile (R, P) will be chosen by players playing the mixed profile (σ1, σ2) is σ1(R) · σ2(P) = 1 2 · 2 3 = 1 3 68 Expected Payoff ... but now what is the suitable notion of payoff? Definition 22 The expected payoff of player i under a mixed strategy profile σ ∈ Σ is ui(σ) := � s∈S σ(s)ui(s)  = � s∈S n� k=1 σk (sk )ui(s)   I.e., it is the "weighted average" of what player i wins under each pure strategy profile s, weighted by the probability of that profile. Assumption: Every rational player strives to maximize his own expected payoff. (This assumption is not always completely convincing ...) 69 Expected Payoff – Example Matching Pennies: H T H 1, −1 −1, 1 T −1, 1 1, −1 Each player secretly turns a penny to heads or tails, and then they reveal their choices simultaneously. If the pennies match, player 1 (row) wins, if they do not match, player 2 (column) wins. Consider σ1 = (1 3 (H), 2 3 (T)) and σ2 = (1 4 (H), 3 4 (T)) u1(σ1, σ2) = � (X,Y)∈{H,T}2 σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = 1 3 1 4 1 + 1 3 3 4 (−1) + 2 3 1 4 (−1) + 2 3 3 4 1 = 1 6 u2(σ1, σ2) = � (X,Y)∈{H,T}2 σ1(X)σ2(Y)u2(X, Y) = 1 3 1 4 (−1) + 1 3 3 4 1 + 2 3 1 4 1 + 2 3 3 4 (−1) = − 1 6 70 "Decomposition" of Expected Payoff Consider the matching pennies example from the previous slide: H T H 1, −1 −1, 1 T −1, 1 1, −1 together with some mixed strategies σ1 and σ2. We prove the following important property of the expected payoff: u1(σ1, σ2) = � X∈{H,T} σ1(X)u1(X, σ2) An intuition behind this equality is following: � u1(σ1, σ2) is the expected payoff of player 1 in the following experiment: Both players simultaneously and independently choose their pure strategies X, Y according to σ1, σ2, resp., and then player 1 collects his payoff u1(X, Y). � � X∈{H,T} σ1(X)u1(X, σ2) is the expected payoff of player 1 in the following: Player 1 chooses his pure strategy X and then uses it against the mixed strategy σ2 of player 2. Then player 2 chooses Y according to σ2 independently of X, and player 1 collects the payoff u1(X, Y). As Y does not depend on X in neither experiment, we obtain the above equality of expected payoffs. 71 "Decomposition" of Expected Payoff Consider the matching pennies example from the previous slide: H T H 1, −1 −1, 1 T −1, 1 1, −1 together with some mixed strategies σ1 and σ2. A formal proof is straightforward: u1(σ1, σ2) = � (X,Y)∈{H,T}2 σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � X∈{H,T} � Y∈{H,T} σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � X∈{H,T} σ1(X) � Y∈{H,T} σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � X∈{H,T} σ1(X)u1(X, σ2) (In the last equality we used the fact that X is identified with a mixed strategy assigning one to X.) 72 "Decomposition" of Expected Payoff Consider the matching pennies example from the previous slide: H T H 1, −1 −1, 1 T −1, 1 1, −1 together with some mixed strategies σ1 and σ2. Similarly, u1(σ1, σ2) = � (X,Y)∈{H,T}2 σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � X∈{H,T} � Y∈{H,T} σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � Y∈{H,T} � X∈{H,T} σ1(X)σ2(Y)u1(X, Y) = � Y∈{H,T} σ2(Y) � X∈{H,T} σ1(X)u1(X, Y) = � Y∈{H,T} σ2(Y)u1(σ1, Y) 73 Expected Payoff – "Decomposition" in General Lemma 23 For every mixed strategy profile σ ∈ Σ and every k ∈ N we have ui(σ) = � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) · ui(sk , σ−k ) = � s−k ∈S−k σ−k (s−k ) · ui(σk , s−k ) Lemma 23 immediately implies that � each ui(σ) is affine in each σk (sk ), � Also, ui(σ) = ui(σ1, . . . , σn) is linear in each σk . Indeed, assuming w.l.o.g. that Sk = {1, . . . , mk }, ui(σ) = � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) · ui(sk , σ−k ) = mk� �=1 σk (�) · ui(�, σ−k ) is the scalar product of the vector σk = (σk (1), . . . , σk (mk )) with the vector (ui(1, σ−k ), . . . , ui(mk , σ−k )). 74 Expected Payoff – Pure Strategy Bounds Before proving Lemma 23, we prove the following simple corollary. Corollary 24 For all i, k ∈ N and σ ∈ Σ we have that � minsk ∈Sk ui(sk , σ−k ) ≤ ui(σ) ≤ maxsk ∈Sk ui(sk , σ−k ) � mins−k ∈S−k ui(σk , s−k ) ≤ ui(σ) ≤ maxs−k ∈S−k ui(σk , s−k ) Proof. We prove ui(σ) ≤ maxsk ∈Sk ui(sk , σ−k ) the rest is similar. Define B := maxsk ∈Sk ui(sk , σ−k ). Then ui(σ) = � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) · ui(sk , σ−k ) = � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) · (B − (B − ui(sk , σ−k ))) ≤ � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) · B = B 75 Proof of Lemma 23 ui(σ) = � s∈S σ(s)ui(s) = � s∈S n� �=1 σ�(s�)ui(s) = � s∈S σk (sk ) n� ��k σ�(s�)ui(s) = � sk ∈Sk � s−k ∈S−k σk (sk ) n� ��k σ�(s�)ui(sk , s−k ) = � sk ∈Sk � s−k ∈S−k σk (sk )σ−k (s−k )ui(sk , s−k ) 76 Proof of Lemma 23 (cont.) The first equality: ui(σ) = � sk ∈Sk � s−k ∈S−k σk (sk )σ−k (s−k )ui(sk , s−k ) = � sk ∈Sk σk (sk ) � s−k ∈S−k σ−k (s−k )ui(sk , s−k ) = � s−k ∈S−k σk (sk )ui(sk , σ−k ) 77 Proof of Lemma 23 (cont.) The second equality: ui(σ) = � sk ∈Sk � s−k ∈S−k σk (sk )σ−k (s−k )ui(sk , s−k ) = � s−k ∈S−k � sk ∈Sk σk (sk )σ−k (s−k )ui(sk , s−k ) = � s−k ∈S−k σ−k (s−k ) � sk ∈Sk σk (sk )ui(sk , s−k ) = � s−k ∈S−k σ−k (s−k )ui(σk , s−k ) 78 Solution Concepts We revisit the following solution concepts in mixed strategies: � strict dominant strategy equilibrium � IESDS equilibrium � rationalizable equilibria � Nash equilibria From now on, when I say a strategy I implicitly mean a mixed strategy. In order to deal with efficiency issues we assume that the size of the game G is defined by |G| := |N| + � i∈N |Si| + � i∈N |ui| where |ui| = � s∈S |ui(s)| and |ui(s)| is the length of a binary encoding of ui(s) (we assume that rational numbers are encoded as quotients of two binary integers) Note that, in particular, |G| > |S|. 79 Strict Dominance in Mixed Strategies Definition 25 Let σi, σ� i ∈ Σi be (mixed) strategies of player i. Then σ� i is strictly dominated by σi (write σ� i ≺ σi) if ui(σi, σ−i) > ui(σ� i , σ−i) for all σ−i ∈ Σ−i Example 26 X Y A 3 0 B 0 3 C 1 1 Is there a strictly dominated strategy? Question: Is there a game with at least one strictly dominated strategy but without strictly dominated pure strategies? 80 Strictly Dominant Strategy Equilibrium Definition 27 σi ∈ Σi is strictly dominant if every other mixed strategy of player i is strictly dominated by σi. Definition 28 A strategy profile σ ∈ Σ is a strictly dominant strategy equilibrium if σi ∈ Σi is strictly dominant for all i ∈ N. Proposition 2 If the strictly dominant strategy equilibrium exists, it is unique, all its strategies are pure, and rational players will play it. Proof. Let σ∗ = (σ∗ 1 , . . . , σ∗ n) ∈ Σi be the strictly dominant strategy equilibrium. By Corollary 24, for every i ∈ N and σ−i ∈ Σ−i, there must exist si ∈ Si such that ui(σ∗ i , σ−i) ≤ ui(si, σ−i). But then σ∗ i = si since σ∗ i is strictly dominant. � 81 Computing Strictly Dominant Strategy Equilibrium How to decide whether there is a strictly dominant strategy equilibrium s = (s1, . . . , sn) ∈ S ? I.e. whether for a given si ∈ Si, all σi ∈ Σi � {si} and all σ−i ∈ Σ−i : ui(si, σ−i) > ui(σi, σ−i) There are some serious issues here: � Obviously there are uncountably many possible σi and σ−i. � ui(σi, σ−i) is nonlinear, and for more that two players even ui(si, σ−i) is nonlinear in probabilities assigned to pure strategies. First, we prove the following useful proposition using Lemma 23: Lemma 29 σi strictly dominates σ� i iff for all pure strategy profiles s−i ∈ S−i: ui(σi, s−i) > ui(σ� i , s−i) Proof: Simple application of the second equality from Lemma 23. In other words, it suffices to check the strict dominance only with respect to all pure profiles of opponents. 82 Computing Strictly Dominant Strategy Equilibrium How to decide whether for a given si ∈ Si, all σi ∈ Σi � {si} and all s−i ∈ S−i we have ui(si, s−i) > ui(σi, s−i) Lemma 30 ui(si, s−i) > ui(σi, s−i) for all σi ∈ Σi � {si} and all s−i ∈ S−i iff ui(si, s−i) > ui(s� i , s−i) for all s� i ∈ Si � {si} and all s−i ∈ S−i. Proof: Simple application of the first equality from Lemma 23. Thus it suffices to check whether ui(si, s−i) > ui(s� i , s−i) for all s� i ∈ Si and all s−i ∈ S−i. This can easily be done in time polynomial w.r.t. |G|. 83 IESDS in Mixed Strategies Define a sequence D0 i , D1 i , D2 i , . . . of strategy sets of player i. (Denote by Gk DS the game obtained from G by restricting the pure strategy sets to Dk i , i ∈ N.) 1. Initialize k = 0 and D0 i = Si for each i ∈ N. 2. For all players i ∈ N: Let Dk+1 i be the set of all pure strategies of Dk i that are not strictly dominated in Gk DS by mixed strategies. 3. Let k := k + 1 and go to 2. We say that si ∈ Si survives IESDS if si ∈ Dk i for all k = 0, 1, 2, . . . Definition 31 A strategy profile s = (s1, . . . , sn) ∈ S is an IESDS equilibrium if each si survives IESDS. 84 IESDS – Algorithm Note that in step 2 it is not sufficient to consider pure strategies. Consider the following zero sum game: X Y A 3 0 B 0 3 C 1 1 C is strictly dominated by (σ1(A), σ1(B), σ1(C)) = (1 2 , 1 2 , 0) but no strategy is strictly dominated in pure strategies. However, there are uncountably many mixed strategies that may dominate a given pure strategy ... Recall ui(σi, σ−i) is linear in σi. So to decide strict dominance, we use linear programming ... 85 Intermezzo: Linear Programming Linear programming is a technique for optimization of a linear objective function, subject to linear (non-strict) inequality constraints. Formally, a linear program in so called canonical form looks like this: maximize m� j=1 cjxj subject to m� j=1 aijxj ≤ bi 1 ≤ i ≤ n xj ≥ 0 1 ≤ j ≤ m (objective function) (constraints) Here aij, bk and cj are real numbers and xj’s are real variables. A feasible solution is an assignment of real numbers to the variables xj, 1 ≤ j ≤ m, so that the constraints are satisfied. An optimal solution is a feasible solution which maximizes the objective function �m j=1 cjxj. 86 Intermezzo: Complexity of Linear Programming We assume that coefficients aij, bk and cj are encoded in binary (more precisely, as fractions of two integers encoded in binary). Theorem 32 (Khachiyan, Doklady Akademii Nauk SSSR, 1979) There is an algorithm which for any linear program computes an optimal solution in polynomial time. The algorithm uses so called ellipsoid method. In practice, the Khachiyan’s is not used. Usually simplex algorithm is used even though its theoretical complexity is exponential. There is also a polynomial time algorithm (by Karmarkar) which has better complexity upper bounds than the Khachiyan’s and sometimes works even better than the simplex. There exist several advanced linear programming solvers (usually parts of larger optimization packages) implementing various heuristics for solving large scale problems, sensitivity analysis, etc. For more info see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linear_programming#Solvers_ and_scripting_.28programming.29_languages 87 IESDS Algorithm – Strict Dominance Step So how do we use linear programming to decide strict dominance in step 2 of IESDS procedure? I.e. whether for a given si there exists σi such that for all σ−i we have ui(σi, σ−i) > ui(si, σ−i) Recall that by Lemma 29 we have that σi is strictly dominates σ� i iff for all pure strategy profiles s−i ∈ S−i: ui(σi, s−i) > ui(σ� i , s−i) In other words, it suffices to check the strict dominance only with respect to all pure profiles of opponents. 88 IESDS Algorithm – Strict Dominance Step Recall that ui(σi, s−i) = � s� i ∈Si σi(s� i )ui(s� i , s−i). So to decide whether si ∈ Si is strictly dominated by some mixed strategy σi, it suffices to solve the following system: � s� i ∈Si xs� i · ui(s� i , s−i) > ui(si, s−i) s−i ∈ S−i xs� i ≥ 0 s� i ∈ Si � s� i ∈Si xs� i = 1 (Here each variable xs� i corresponds to the probability σi(s� i ) assigned by the strictly dominant strategy σi to s� i ) Unfortunately, this is a "strict linear program" ... How to deal with the strict inequality? 89 IESDS Algorithm – Complexity Introduce a new variable y to be maximized under the following constraints: � s� i ∈Si xs� i · ui(s� i , s−i) ≥ ui(si, s−i) + y s−i ∈ S−i xs� i ≥ 0 s� i ∈ Si � s� i ∈Si xs� i = 1 y ≥ 0 Now si is strictly dominated iff a solution maximizing y satisfies y > 0 The size of the above program is polynomial in |G|. So the step 2 of IESDS can be executed in polynomial time. As every iteration of IESDS removes at least one pure strategy, IESDS runs in time polynomial in |G|. 90 IESDS in Mixed Strategie – Example X Y A 3 0 B 0 3 C 1 1 Let us have a look at the first iteration of IESDS. Observe that A, B are not strictly dominated by any mixed strategy. Let us construct the linear program for deciding whether C is strictly dominated: The program maximizes y under the following constraints: 3xA + 0xB + xC ≥ 1 + y 0xA + 3xB + xC ≥ 1 + y xA , xB , xC ≥ 0 xA + xB + xC = 1 y ≥ 0 The maximum y = 1 2 is attained at xA = 1 2 and xB = 1 2 . 91