Bus Dwell Time Prediction in Real Time
FI MU:
Hana Rudová, David Štípský, Vinh Quang Dang
Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh,
Intelligent Coordination and Logistics Laboratory:
Stephen Smith et al.
22. 11. 2016 1
Pittsburgh Smart City Vision
2
Current data study from Pittsburgh, USA
Automated vehicle location (AVL) data
Automated passenger counting (APC) data
September 2012 – August 2014 (September – December 2014)
The total number of records for routes 71A and 71C inbound
removed data: bus dwell time greater than 100 seconds
All day 7 – 10 am
# total % used % removed % used % removed
71A 995,709 98.71 1.29 21.80 0.29
71C 1,024,518 98.75 1.25 20.73 0.27
3
Dwell times for route 71C, inbound, 7–10 am0:layoverbrushtonterminal
1:eastbuswayatwilkinsburgs
2:eastbuswayathaystrampo
3:pennwoodaveatfranklin
4:rowlandconnectoropphighri
5:kellyaveatpittst
6:kellyaveatwestst
7:trentonaveopprebeccans
8:trentonaveatfranklin
9:trentonaveatsouth
10:trentonaveatpenn
11:
12:pennaveatbrushton
13:pennaveatbraddock
14:pennaveoppcarnegie
15:pennaveatlexington
16:pennaveathomewood
17:pennaveatlang
18:pennaveatmurtlandfs
19:pennaveatlinden
20:pennaveat5thave
21:pennaveatbakerysquare
22:
23:pennaveatvillageofeasts
24:pennaveoppshadyavens
25:
26:pennaveatsheridanave
27:pennaveathighlandave
28:pennaveatwhitfieldst
29:pennaveatstclair
30:negleyaveatpennfs
31:negleyaveatcoralst
32:negleyaveatfriendshipave
33:negleyaveat#370
34:negleyaveatcentreave
35:centreaveatgrahamst
36:centreaveataikenave
37:centreaveoppshadysidehos
38:centreaveatcypressst
39:centreaveatmorewoodave
40:centreaveatmillvaleave
41:centreaveoppnevillest
42:centreaveatmelwoodave
43:centreaveatcraigstns
44:craigstatbayardst
45:craigstat5thave
46:5thaveatbellefieldave
47:5thaveattennysonave
48:5thaveatbigelowblvd
49:5thaveatthackerayave
50:5thaveoppatwoodst
51:5thaveatchesterfieldrd
52:5thaveoppcraftave
53:5thaveatrobinsonst
54:5thaveatbrenhamstfs
55:5thaveopp#2410
56:5thaveopp#2358
57:5thaveatkirkpatrickstfs
58:5thaveatmoultriestfs
59:5thaveoppsenecast
60:5thaveatwyandottest
61:5thaveoppgistst
62:5thaveatdinwiddiest
63:5thaveoppvanbraamst
64:5thaveatpridest
65:5thaveatstevensonst
66:5thaveatmageest
67:5thaveatwashingtonpl
68:5thaveoppdiamondst
69:6thaveat5thavefs
70:6thaveatbigelowsq
71:6thaveatsmithfieldst
72:6thaveatwoodst
73:5thaveatwoodst-eol
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
dwelltime(s)
(b) February 2014
4
Number of records and number of non-zero records
for route 71C, inbound, 7–10 am
0:layoverbrushtonterminal
1:eastbuswayatwilkinsburgs
2:eastbuswayathaystrampo
3:pennwoodaveatfranklin
4:rowlandconnectoropphighri
5:kellyaveatpittst
6:kellyaveatwestst
7:trentonaveopprebeccans
8:trentonaveatfranklin
9:trentonaveatsouth
10:trentonaveatpenn
11:
12:pennaveatbrushton
13:pennaveatbraddock
14:pennaveoppcarnegie
15:pennaveatlexington
16:pennaveathomewood
17:pennaveatlang
18:pennaveatmurtlandfs
19:pennaveatlinden
20:pennaveat5thave
21:pennaveatbakerysquare
22:
23:pennaveatvillageofeasts
24:pennaveoppshadyavens
25:
26:pennaveatsheridanave
27:pennaveathighlandave
28:pennaveatwhitfieldst
29:pennaveatstclair
30:negleyaveatpennfs
31:negleyaveatcoralst
32:negleyaveatfriendshipave
33:negleyaveat#370
34:negleyaveatcentreave
35:centreaveatgrahamst
36:centreaveataikenave
37:centreaveoppshadysidehos
38:centreaveatcypressst
39:centreaveatmorewoodave
40:centreaveatmillvaleave
41:centreaveoppnevillest
42:centreaveatmelwoodave
43:centreaveatcraigstns
44:craigstatbayardst
45:craigstat5thave
46:5thaveatbellefieldave
47:5thaveattennysonave
48:5thaveatbigelowblvd
49:5thaveatthackerayave
50:5thaveoppatwoodst
51:5thaveatchesterfieldrd
52:5thaveoppcraftave
53:5thaveatrobinsonst
54:5thaveatbrenhamstfs
55:5thaveopp#2410
56:5thaveopp#2358
57:5thaveatkirkpatrickstfs
58:5thaveatmoultriestfs
59:5thaveoppsenecast
60:5thaveatwyandottest
61:5thaveoppgistst
62:5thaveatdinwiddiest
63:5thaveoppvanbraamst
64:5thaveatpridest
65:5thaveatstevensonst
66:5thaveatmageest
67:5thaveatwashingtonpl
68:5thaveoppdiamondst
69:6thaveat5thavefs
70:6thaveatbigelowsq
71:6thaveatsmithfieldst
72:6thaveatwoodst
73:5thaveatwoodst-eol
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
(b) February 2014 #records per stop #non-zero records per stop
5
Current Sutrac connected vehicle testbed: corridor
8/1/16	
   1	
  
Baum Boulevard
Centre Avenue
HighlandAve
Fifth71A,	
  71C	
  
6
Cumulative distribution function for dwell times
for routes 71A+71C, inbound, 7–10 am
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
dwell time in (s)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
cumulativeprobability
(a) February 2013, 2014
negley ave at #370
negley ave at centre ave
centre ave at graham st
centre ave at aiken ave
centre ave opp shadyside hos
centre ave at cypress st
centre ave at morewood ave
centre ave at millvale ave
centre ave opp neville st
centre ave at melwood ave
centre ave at craig st ns
7
Dwell times for February 2013+2014
routes 71A+71C, inbound
5:00
5:15
5:30
5:45
6:00
6:15
6:30
6:45
7:00
7:15
7:30
7:45
8:00
8:15
8:30
8:45
9:00
9:15
9:30
9:45
10:00
10:15
10:30
10:45
11:00
11:15
11:30
11:45
12:00
12:15
12:30
12:45
13:00
13:15
13:30
13:45
14:00
14:15
14:30
14:45
15:00
15:15
15:30
15:45
16:00
16:15
16:30
16:45
17:00
17:15
17:30
17:45
18:00
18:15
18:30
18:45
19:00
19:15
19:30
19:45
20:00
20:15
20:30
20:45
21:00
21:15
21:30
21:45
22:00
22:15
22:30
22:45
23:00
23:15
23:30
23:45
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
dwelltime(s)
(b) Centre Ave at Aiken Ave
8
Cumulative distribution function for dwell times
for Center Ave at Aiken Ave stop, February 2013+2014
routes 71A+71C, inbound, 7–10 am
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
dwell time in (s)
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1.0
cumulativeprobability
7:00
7:15
7:30
7:45
8:00
8:15
8:30
8:45
9:00
9:15
9:30
9:45
9
Important data about each bus stopping
Direction of trip along route
Bus model (number of seats, bus capacity)
Day/Month/Year of run
Stop sequential number (stops may differ over time)
Stop ID
Arrival Hour, Min, Second
Departure Hour, Min, Second
Observed number of passengers boarding
Observed number of passengers alighting
Number of passengers on bus
Scheduled time if a time point
10
Analysis in real time
Historical data + data for previous bus
Bus stop
Month, (day,) time of day
Dwell time
Number of passengers on bus (crowding)
Observed number of passengers boarding for previous bus
Observed number of passengers alighting for previous bus
11
Related work
Offline prediction model
regression models
linear regression based on the numbers of boarding and alighting
passengers
probabilistic models
decision trees
time series models
Prediction models in real time
Kalman filters based on passenger arrival rate and headway
prediction model for alighting/boarding passengers
prediction model for bus dwell time based on that
crowding effects
12