Comparative Transitions to Democracy University Masaryk in Brno Unit V. The Development of the “Transitology”: Classic Transitions to Democracy in the 1970 and 1980s Lecturer: Oscar Hidalgo-Redondo Date: 28 April 2009 5.1 The Collapse of the Second Democratising Wave Second wave: since 1945 post-WWII democratisation countries that lost the war countries that need to regenerate political structures new countries 2 different scenarios scenarios of success post-fascist regimes regeneration of democratic structures scenarios of collapse new regimes authoritarianism and violence By 1960, the dream of worldwide extension of democracy was over collapse of new-born democracies Difficult process Cold War scenario internal forces divided: civil wars friendly rogues Regional dynamics de-stabilising focus Economic performance broken promises of democracy dissatisfaction Lack of democratic maturity political cultures’ compatibility with democracy elite behaviours In 1960 many countries that initiated a process of change aborted democratisation in 1960 democratic recession 5.2 Scenarios for Democratisation in the 1970s Third wave of democratisation will begin in the 1970s in European authoritarian regimes maturation exhaustion lack of legitimacy Portugal, Greece and Spain different contexts length of authoritarian regime long, Portugal and Spain short, Greece type of ruler military, Spain and Greece civilian, Portugal sharing one common element societies’ maturity and support of democracy Transitions will be different Portugal and Greece, revolutionary character Spain, transaction Transitions different from the Second wave internal lead societies demand democratisation Transitions are studied generate models of regime transformation “science” of the transition to be applied to other cases From Southern Europe to Latin America Bolivia 1982 Brazil 1985 Paraguay 1989 Ecuador 1979 Argentina 1983 Peru 1979 Chile 1990 Uruguay 1985 to other continents Africa Asia Eastern Europe Third wave transitions become the theoretical benchmark to study processes of democratisation 5.3 Democracy in the Third Wave Subsequent waves of democracy have expanded the understanding of democracy long cycle, political rights second wave, social rights third wave, 3 generation rights “post-modern”, “post-materialist” rights cultural rights environmental protection consumers’ rights adding advances registered in the most developed states New stage in the history of constitutionalism deepening the understanding of the meaning of democracy from the political to the non-political Democratisation as a process with an internal drive vs. second wave, external transitions as a response to internal developments external factors as catalysers not the ingredients of the transition democratisation as a result to internal maturity study of the elements that must be present for a process of democratisation to exist Democracy as an internal dialogue between relevant political actors within the societies elite in power opposition leaders the masses need of study this relations guides for success (democratic engineering) 5.4 Modes of Transition in the Third Wave Focused on the way in which the transfer of power was carried out led by the old elite taken by the democratisers Transition as rupture old elite loses control of the situation regime does not reproduces its legitimacy new regime is demanded a change ends with old elite being toppled Greece, Portugal Transition as a transaction the quota of power of the old elite is very strong still in position to negotiate agreement old regime and opposition Spain 5.5 Transitions as Rupture: Portugal Salazar’s Portugal Salazar is an academic traditionalist countryside, traditional society conservative anti-communist religious Catholic morals reach to power after the collapse of the I Republic in 1926 disorder dissatisfaction with the performance of the state military dictatorship 1928 Minister of Economy, economic crisis academic 1932 President of Council of Ministers saviour, redemptory figure save the state from collapse take Portugal to success support for his project: a New State (Estado Novo) The “New State” union under the leadership of the leader figure of the “father of the nation” traditionalism: “Deus, Pátria e Familia” state working as a body corporatism, union of the powers of the state 1 party, National Union social organisations through the state repression (PVDE-PIDE), enemies of the state propaganda 1960s, Decline of Salazar’s regime failed promises of development lack of democracy colonial question India, Goa, Daman, Diu Angola, Cabo Verde, Mozambique Salazar’s illness 1968 Salazar for is substituted by Marcelo Caetano Caetano, a gray profile academic, no popularity managing economic crisis colonial problems social unrest disintegration of the regime in 1970s Revolution from within the regime army sectors (middle low officers: Captains) coup d’etat 25 April 1974, occupation of strategic points population supports the army Movimento das Forças Armadas (MFA) democratising plan elections within 1 year Caetano’s regime crumbles down National Salvation Junta, military presence 1974-5 a turbulent period Communist Party and revolutionary officers drive towards socialism Moderate forces, maintain a democratic order Division in the army hierarchy revolutionary officers Social confrontation North, conservative South, revolutionary 25 April 1975 Constitutional Assembly elections triumph of moderates, 70% votes for moderates draft of new constitution not fully democratic, threat of revolutionary army reserves of power Council of the Revolution 1976 Parliamentary regular elections 75% votes for constitutionalists revolutionaries losing positions 1982 reform of the constitution council of the revolution 5.6 Transitions as Transaction: Spain 1939 creation of the regime influenced by Fascist regimes and Salazar corporatist state, led by a central figure: Francisco Franco not very charismatic military man, hierarchy Evolution in Franco’s regime 1939-1954 isolationism, autarky repression WWII, “No-belligerence” policy Blockade economic stagnation scarcity Cooperation with USA UN membership 1955 1955-1960s “desarrollismo” technocrats, Opus Dei 1959 plan of development with WB and IMF 1960s tensions hard-liners (bunker) reformers 1970s weakening of the regime economic crisis, return of emigrants political contestation health of Franco 1975 death and transition Late 1960s Franco realises the debility of his regime more contestation transformation of the Spanish society economic difficulties sickness and age 1969 Succession Law King Juan Carlos to become king attempt to unify the moderate forces but Franco was not planning a transition 1973 death of the admiral Carrero Blanco Franco’s selected candidate to rule after him November 1975 Franco died King Juan Carlos I head of state but surrounded by Francoite officials hardliners, Government leader Arias Navarro reformers, vice-secretary of the Movimiento Adolfo Suarez Juan Carlos I substituted the Arias for Suarez alliance Suarez-King Juan Carlos unite moderate Francoite sectors moderate reformers regime is not dismantled by a revolution but the Francoite assembly finished with the regime 1976 Law for the Political Reform 15 December Referendum Suarez is able to convince main actors of the need of the pact leaders of democratic parties moderates in the Movimiento 1977 free elections for constitutional assembly PCE legalised First elections triumph of the moderates UCD of Suarez 35% PSOE of Gonzalez 30% PCE 9% AP 9% Constitutional assembly, 1978 democratic constitution