Sustainability: Energy, the Environment, and Society Mgr. Benjamin Vail, M.Sc., Ph.D. MEB415 Spring 2012 Contents of this Lecture 1.Defining “sustainability” 2. 2.Debate over sustainability 3. 3.Sustainability and the Future of Energy 3 1. What is Sustainability? •Is there an environmental crisis? • •Major stresses on the global environment include: –Overharvesting –Water and soil pollution & depletion –Atmospheric pollution: smog and climate change –Loss of biodiversity: Habitat destruction & species extinction Deforestation 4 Fisheries Collapse 5 world_fishery_collapse.jpg Suburbanization / Land use 6 Climate Change 7 Human Environmental Impacts 1750-2000 8 9 “Overshoot” Global carrying capacity About 1900 Today Living Space Supply Depot Waste Repository Supply Depot Waste Repository Living Space 10 Definitions •Webster’s dictionary: • •Sustainable = “a method of harvesting or using a resource so that the resource is not depleted or permanently damaged” dictionary 11 Definitions •Brundtland, Our Common Future, 1987: the ability to meet our needs without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs. • •Three main factors: ecology, economy, society • •Intergenerational solidarity 12 Definitions •Worldwatch: “Ultimately, sustainable development and sustainability itself are about collective values and related choices and are therefore a political issue…. Because values, politics, and our understanding of the Earth and its systems will evolve, notions of what is sustainable will never be static.” 13 Dimensions of Sustainability •Worldwatch article: 4 dimensions of sustainable development 1.Human survival 2.Biological diversity 3.Social equity 4.Quality of life 14 Human Survival •The survival of Homo sapiens as a species is not threatened •But risks do threaten individuals, and whole populations Halton_outfall iStock_000002933363XSmall GMOtour_velka 15 Biological Diversity •Values of biodiversity: • •Biocentric –Ecosystem stability & health –Deep ecology: intrinsic value of nature – •Anthropocentric –Utilitarian – use by humans –Example: food security B1a251OX-WildflowersYankeeBoyBasin_650 0426_jpg 16 Social Equity •Environmental problems result from social problems – and cause social problems • •Today income inequality is growing – between Global North & South, and within nations mumbai-slum-demolition SLUM skwale-caracas-petare-01 17 Social Equity RoyalMarinesJungleTraining jk Image:Peoples army.jpg •Redefine “national security” to include global environmental and economic justice, not simply military protection 18 Quality of Life •There is more to life than material standard of living • •GDP cannot measure the true level of material well-being Flood car-accident lightening 19 Quality of Life •Overconsumption has become a problem in many developed nations • •Lifestyle diseases: obesity, diabetes • •Economists: The hedonic treadmill may not make us happy cubicle cubicle cubicle%20dwellers wbOBESITY2_wideweb__470x352,0 20 Prescriptions for Sustainable Development •For global sustainability, the economy must harmonize with the earth’s natural systems –Seek new energy sources –Protect habitat –Control consumption –Control human population –Apply the Precautionary Principle seedling-replant-no-icc solar-panel 21 Precautionary Principle •Wingspread conference (1998): • •“When an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment, precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause and effect relationships are not fully established scientifically.” 22 Precautionary Principle •If a technique or technology could be harmful, limit it or do not use it • •Prugh & Assadourian: Adopt PP because of the high uncertainty of our understanding of ecosystems and the impacts, for example, of many chemicals HazMat_team_sampling_large RRE-Hazardous-Waste-Removal 23 2. Is Sustainability Possible? •Debate • •Spectrum of opinions –Cornucopians –Reformists –Revolutionaries –Environmental determinists 24 Perspectives on Sustainability Handshake cornucopia istockphoto_1997299_revolution_graffiti shrug 25 Debates About Sustainability •Cornucopians: “Sustainability” is nothing to worry about •Reformists: Work within existing structures to make society more “green” •Revolutionaries: Sustainability is not possible without radical change •Environmental determinists: Ecological limits will impose changes on society whether we like it or not 26 Critique of “Sustainability” •Vague concept • •Wide range of opinions • •Cornucopians: it’s not necessary to restrict growth • •Others say growth is inherently unsustainable 27 Cornucopians •There are plenty of natural resources •Prices for many basic industrial inputs have declined •Human intelligence is the “ultimate resource” •More people is good •We can create new technologies jsimon Julian Simon 1932-1998 28 Response to the Cornucopians •The Logic of Limits to Growth •For physical reasons, there is a limit to the amount of resources on earth and the number of people that can live on earth … • …Thus, economic growth cannot be infinite. • •The current economic system is based on the assumption that growth is desirable and infinite • …Thus, the present economic system is unsustainable. 29 Daly: Sustainable Development vs. “Sustainable Growth” •Sustainable development = economic improvement without growth • •Growth vs. development: “When something grows it gets bigger. When something develops it gets different.” daly Herman Daly 30 Daly and Development •A sustainable economy: Stops increasing raw natural resource inputs, and at some point settles at a scale at which the environment can continue to function and renew itself naturally. This “non-growing” economy is always changing and adapting – not stagnant. 3. Sustainability and the Future of Energy •The problem: “peak oil” • •Solutions/responses? 31 32 Peak Oil •Hubbert’s peak theory •Does not mean all oil is gone •Half-way point means no greater amount of oil can ever be produced Image:Hubbert peak oil plot.svg 34 Peak Oil •USA peaked in 1970 • •Practically all major producers have peaked, such as Russia, Mexico, Kuwait, North Sea, Venezuela, Norway, and perhaps Saudi Arabia • •As a group, all oil-producing countries outside OPEC and the former Soviet Union peaked around 2000 • •OECD’s International Energy Agency: Global conventional crude peak was in 2006 • The Past Source: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf A Looming Energy Crisis? •Data from February 2012 • •US petrol prices now at record highs • •Former Shell Oil CEO: –$5/gallon this summer, up to $7-8 and rationing in 2015 –India demand: from 4 to 7 mbd in 2015 –China demand: from 9 to 15 mbd in 2015 – •Czech coal reserves expected to run out in 2030 Sources: http://www.energybulletin.net/stories/2012-02-22/gas-prices-set-records-soon-reach-new-highs; http://www.ceskapozice.cz/en/news/politics-policy/czech-coal-will-run-out-18-years-industry-funded- institute-warns Historic Oil Prices 37 Source: http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2011/02/28/business/28oil-gfx.html?ref=global The Future Source: http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Oilreport_10-2007.pdf 39 Economic and Social Impacts •Oil will be more difficult & expensive to get • •Declining oil quantity • •Conflict over remaining energy resources? TOPIX_IRAQ_US_MILITARY_WAR_143200349%5B1%5D cvn71_aircraft_carrier iraq032403 Alternatives to Crude Oil •Natural gas •Coal •Tar sands •Shale Oils •Ethanol, biofuels •Methane hydrates • •Nuclear fission •Hydrogen •Wind •Solar •Water power • nova-scotia-windmill The Debate over Nuclear Power 41 •Kunstler: No combination of energy alternatives can replace oil • •Environmentalists like George Monbiot and James Lovelock advocate increased use of nuclear power “The Long Emergency” bio_mefeb04 James Kunstler •Modern society faces a convergence of problems: • •Energy scarcity –IEA: crude production will be on – an “undulating plateau” • •Climate change –Food scarcity –Disease –Natural disasters • •Geopolitical instability • •Economic instability Sustainable Solutions? •Mainstream capitalists & politicians: new technologies • •Deep ecologists: new values & lifestyle • •Kunstler: no solution is in sight; We will keep doing what we’re doing until we can’t any more • •McKibben: pro-active localization 43 McKibben and Localization •Local production • •Alternative agriculture • •Urban farming • •Reduced use of automobiles 44 45 Localization •Revitalize communities: –Culture –Politics –Economic relations – •Example: Community gardens and Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) –Reduce greenhouse emissions –Reduce use of fossil fuels –Improve nutrition Conclusion •There is strong evidence that humans are having a negative global environmental impact • •The question is: What action can we take to balance the needs of society and the needs of nature? • •Science can give us data about the situation, but finding solutions will be a political process 46