CLIMATE CHANGE AND FOSSIL FUELS ESS411 — Environmental aspects of energy „How could scientists predict the climate in 100 years when they cannot predict the weather tomorrow? " Climate: atmospheric conditions over a long period of time (years to centuries). Weather: short time (minutes to weeks). Consequences for prediction - climate undergoes more gradual change (than weather) and is easier to predics. (1) The planet's temperature is rising ver the past 130 years the global average temperature has increased by 0,8°C (more than half of that in last 35 years). □ Ancient ice samples (from Antarctica and other places) are analysed — they layers are dated and gas bubles inside are analysed. 2 concentration is measured by infrared spectroscopy or mass spectrometry. Isotope ratios of water molecules are measured to determine historical temperatures. Hllf Eli EVMP9U(m£ fer^V ■ LAJnZiAilLAvmwr ******......h....... ^in*** INYE5TICE DO ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁM ■ Earth's climate has always fluctuated. The cooler period or glacial periods, the warmer period — interglacial periods. ice ages Temperature Changes in the Past 800,000 Years i I Hi * ivy »1 y Temperature (■C) relative to 1961-1990 average Years Before Present The rate of change has become more dramatic since the Industrial Revolution = anthropogenic origins. Hüf Ö lihl INVESTICE DO ROZVOJE VZDELÁVAM ■ Rates of Change in the Past 250 Years CO2 Concentrations in the Past 1000 Years 390 360 330 C02/ppmv 300 270 - Mauna Loa atmospheric • Law Dome (Ethendge el al., 1996) • Siple (Fnedii et al.. 1986) • EPICA DML (Siegenthaler et al., 2005) S. Pole (Siegenthaler el al.. 2005) 240 10U0- T2U0- T4UD" TBDO~ -2000 Griipfl COurlWy C Eric Wt*l nl SAS Age (year B.C.E.) l/l EVHJre-J UM L 1 INVESllCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDElAvAnI (3) We are responsible for the increase in C02 □ Human C02 emissions (20 billion tonnes/y) are small compared to natural emission (776 billion tonnes/y). □ But natural absorptions (788 billion tonnes/y) roughly balance natural emisssions. □ Carbon 12 isotope to carbon 13 isotope ratio increases (isotope = different atoms with the same chemical behavior but with different masses). mur Eli EVMP9U(m£ fer^V ■ LAJnZiAilLAvmwr ******......h....... ^ih>t* INYE5TICE DO RDZVOJE VZDElAvAnI ■ (4) Increased C02 is the primary driver of global warming (greenhouse effect). Inbound solar radiation has short wavelenghts and high energy contents. This radiation passes through the atmosphere. Some energy is absorbed by the ground (warming it up). Some energy is reflected back to the space. That reflected ratdiation has lower energy levels and longer wavelengths. 80% of the outgoing radiation is trapped in the lower troposphere. Energy trapped in the troposphere warns the surface. More GHGs in the atmosphere trap more outbound solar radiation, thus warming the planet - anthropogenic climate change. Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth's surface. This heat is radiated back toward space. Most of the outgoing heat is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules and re-emitted in all directions, warming the surface of the Earth and the lower atmosphere. 17^ INVESllCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDELAvANl §1 8 C02 traps infrared radiation (thermal radiation). Proven by laboratory experiments and satellites (satelit data from 1970; direct experimental evidence) that find less heat escaping out to space over the las few decades. Temperature — average kinetic energy of the molecules within a substance = the more radiation trapped in the atmosphere the higher temperature is. Hllf Eli EVMP9U(m£ fer^V ■ lAJnfiAilLAvmmr ******......h....... ^in*** INYE5TICE DO ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁM ■ The extra C02 in the atmosphere amplified the original warming (positive feedback). Positive/negative feedbacks examining different period throughout Earth's history shows that positive feedbaks amplify any initial warming Positive feedback — warming keeps more water in the air and more wapour traps more heat. Negative feedback — more water vapour causes more clauds, reflecting sunlight. Hllf Eli EVMP9U(m£ fer^V ■ lAJnfiAilLAvmmr ******......h....... ^in*** INYE5TICE DO ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁM ■ Indicators of a Warming World A, Tree-lines shifting poleward and upward 9 Spring coming earlier Species migrating poleward and upward Parmesan & Yohe 2003 , NOAA p^ffkl Jí ipoWnmrtn (.wi,m »rUlnVr ferner-, 4 tfitrirn njipgilirr (c^t -í5»,t*tf rA investice 00 rozvoje v z d E LAvAnI i I ■í1 11 Earth's climate has undergone changes over long periods of time (several ice ages, period of warming). Previous changes were dramatic but gradual (thousands of years). Today's change is extremely fast and increasing. Until 250 years ago the highest rate of temperature increase recorded was approximately 0,003oC/y. For the last ten years, it is 0,017°C. Global warming vs. climate change . The first suggests that Earth's climate is warming on average, but it is not fully true. Factors such as precipitation and evaporation are also changing. And these changes often affect climate patterns elsewhere in the world. Hilf Ö §}\ INYE5TICE do rdzvoje VZDElAVÄNJ ■ There is scientific consensus on Corelation between the concentration of C02 and temperature. That humans release anthropogenic compounds into the environment, resulting in previously unseen rises in atmospheric gas concentrations and temperature. Hilf Eli EvflOPfiJíAU^E fer^V ■ LAJnZiAilLAvmwr ******......h....... ^ufA** INYE5TICE DO ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁM ■ Melting ice The vast majority of the world's glaciers are melting faster than are replenished. 1/3 of North Pole's ice sheets melted since 90s. Accelerated sea level rise, increase coastal flooding 20 cm in the last century (40% thermal expansivity, 60% melting). Actual rate 3mm/y. Problem for low-lying communities. Increase in extreme weather events Climate change increases certain types of extreme weather events - heat, waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, more sever droughts. EVAOKkAunE I IHVESTtCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDElAV^NI .... V 14 umber of Climate-related Disasters Around the World (1980-2011) 3455 FLOODS 200 , 2689 LJ STORMS 150 Health impacts Increased air pollution, a longer and more intense allergy seasons, the spread of insect-borne diseases, more frequent heat waves, flooding = costly risks to public health. Food problems and water According to IPCC 1°C = 65 million people starving Increase of the temperature of more than 2°C = 3 billion people without water supply Between 18-35% of plant and animal species is committed to extinction by 2050 (oceans are absorbing much of the C02 in the air, which leads to ocean acidification — destabilising the whole oceanic food chain). An estimated 1 billion people depend on the ocean for more than 30% of their animal protein. Climate refugees. INVESllCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDELAvANl til * ilLOvmczvT mm^mmjMW ^h*** Rich will adapt and poor will suffer. Itrilö f^tl j. ^uWnwrvir, (im^vkym KV4r+n fotfarr, g tfltrtm r^pgr^pn Cefa irp&kf EVMPtHAIMC fer^V ■ LAJnZlAllLiMatWr- frrMrtuB...... h....... ^Uft** INYE5TICE DO RDZVOJE VZDElAvAnI ■ Steady level of C02 (280 ppm) in the -pre-industrial era, in 2013 396 ppm (40% higher than in the mid-1800s). Average growth of 2 ppm/y. Significant increases in levels of methane and nitrous oxide. The use of energy represents by far Shares of global anthropogenic GHG, 2010' ij 0tifcfcl> WdlltarWtn tnwtkjm jwUinir fatten1 tUlrJ-n ry 'SI S. 1-2 ď 1 O 1 O) Ä 0.8 í 0.6 a 0.4 c? ď 02 ü 0 Russian Federation \ China 0 India Japan 0 5 10 15 20 25 CO2/ population (VZO2 per capita) O 1990 (J 2012 The size of the circle represents the total C02 emissions from the country in that year. tpito P^l J5 S"jM"inW*i InW^/Tn iwUln'ir fernen « tfítrin, rwp^nr •ip.Wt, 17-1 EíflOPSJtALWÉ I INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁNI i I ■í1 CO2 emissions per capita by major world regions tCOa per capita World Annex II North America Annex II Asia Oceania Annex I EIT Middle East AnnexII Europe China* Other Latin America Asia excluding China Africa 5 China includes Hong Kong, China. 10 15 12012 CI1990 20 21 Economic growth strongly linked to consumption of fuels. Substitution of fossil fuels is essential but extremely difficult. Is uniquely global Environmental problems usually regional (Beijing's smog, waste from EU's industry). In the case of climate change, impacts may be regional, but phenomenon is global. The global nature of climate change also complicates any sensible climate policy. It is tough to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves, when those limits benefit them and only them, but it is tougher to get voters to enact pollution limits on themselves if the costs are felt domestically, but the benefits are global = a planetary free riding problem. IT"!! INVESllCE 00 R0ZV0JE VZDElAvAnI ml 23 2011 World C02 Emissions from Fossil Fuels China Derived from IEA estimated data May 2012 United States European Union India Russia, Japan & Canada Africa, Mid East & Latin Amer Everyone Else INVESllCE 00 ROZVOJE VZDElAvAnI Is uniquely long-term The past decade was the warmest in human history. The one before was the second-warmest. The one before was the third-warmest. Changes are evident. Arctic sea ice has lost half of its are and three-quaters of its volume in only the past thirty years. But the most of the worst consequences of climate change are still remote, often caged in global, long-term averages. The worst effects are still far off — but avoiding these predictions would entail acting now. IT"!! INVESllCE 00 R0IV0JE VZDElAvAnI ml 25 Is uniquely irreversible Stopping emitting carbon now we still would have decades of warming and centuries of sea-level rise locked in. Full melting of large West Antarctic ice sheets may be unstoppable. Over 2/3 of the excess C02 in the atmosphere that wasn't there when humans started burning fossil fuels will still be present a hundred years from now. Over 1/3 will be there in 1000 years. I7-T1 INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁNI ml 26 Is uniquely uncertain. „Everything we know that we don't know, and perhaps more importantly, what we don't yet know we don't know" (Wagner, Weitzman). Last time concentration of carbon dioxide were as high as they are today, at 400 ppm, at Pliocene. That was over three million years ago, when average temperatures were around 1-2,5°C warmer than today, sea levels were up to 20 meters higher, and camels lived in Canada. We wouldn't expect any of these dramatic changes today The greenhouse effect needs decades to centuries to come into full force, ice sheets need decades to centuries to melt, global sea levels také decades to centuries to adjust accordingly C02 concentrations may have been at 400 ppm 3 million years ago, whereas rising sea levels lagged decades or centuries behind. INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁNI 'IRĚTvOĚnOLĚTvf, cpi1 mi I i T^*4* tli * IlLOvmCZVT frtWMMMpN ^AtfUV* Around current climates masive investments and industrial infrastructures is build, that makes temperature increases costiy. The current models estimates that warming of 1°C will cost 0,5% of global GDP, 2°C around 1% GDP, 4°C around 4% GDP We could think about damages as a percentage of output in any given year. At a 3 percent annual growth rate, global economic output will increase almost twenty-fold in a hudred years. Or lets assume that damages affect output growth rates ragher than output levels. Climate change clearly affects labor productivity, esp. in already hot countries. Then the cumulative effects of damages could be much worse over time. m INVESllCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDElAvAnI Climate change is unlike any other public policy problem. It's almost uniquely global, long-term, irreversible, uncertain. These factors are what make climate change so difficult to solve. INVESllCE 00 R0IV0JE VZDElAvAnI si 29 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change — 1988. = to provide comprehensive scientific assessments of current scientific, technical and socioeconomic information about the risk of climate change, its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and possible options for adapting to these consequences or mitigating the effects. Rio Summit on Earth — 1992 (UN conference on environment and development) —> UNFCCC □ Kyoto Protocol 1997, in force 2005 = Existence of a generally accepted consensus on the climate change as well as the contribution of human activities to this change. GHG (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur exafluoride) + hydrofluorocarbons and pefluorocarbons. Annex I. countries (37 industrialized countries + EU15), Non-annex I. parties. Reducing of GHG emissions by 5,2 % for the first commitment period of 2008-2012. (4,2 % after USA left). Base year 1990. eduction of emissions from fossil fuel combustion; reduction emission in other sectors (land-use or direct industrial emissions); flexible mechanisms — Emission trading, CDM, JI. □ Common but differenciated responsibility n 2012, C02 emissions from fuel combustion across all Parties with KP targets were 14% below 1990 levels. missions in the EU-15 were 8% bellow 1990 levels. Some industrialised countries have seen significant increases (Australia +48%), New Zealand (+44%), Spain (+30%). espite extensive participation of 192 countries the KP is limited in its potential - U.S. remains outside, developing countries do not have emission targets. The KP implies action on less than one-quarter of global C02 emissions. Through its flexibility mechanisms the KP has made C02 a tradable commodity, and has been a driver for the development of national emission trading schemes. mo HtCOi 2012 MbCO, lichange Kyoto 90-12 Target 1990 HtCO: 2012 %change Kycto MtCO, 90-12 Target KYOTO PASTES wrm targets 111 8339.6 7,157.0 -14.2% 4.6%^ OT>ER0OUNroE& 12,014.7 23,4374 Asia Oceania 1,339.5 1,641.7 22.6* Ajstalia 260.5 3383 4B5% Japan 1056.7 1.2233 155% New Zbal and 22.3 32.1 445% economies Jn 7ransl]'on 3,S45.E 2.6fflJ.e -32.2* Bulgaria 74.6 443 -405% Croatia 21.5 172 JD.1% Odi Ftepublic 14E.E 1073 J75% Estonia 35.B 183 -54 5% Hungary 66.4 43j6 -34.4% Latiia 1E.6 7J1 -62.4% Lithuania 33.1 133 -595% Poland 342.1 2933 -14.1% Romania 167.5 79JQ -525% Russian FeeeratiDn 2.17E.B 1559 jo -£35% Slovak Republic 56.7 31.5 -435% Slovenia 133 14j6 95% Ukraine 687.6 231.1 -5B.1% +8% GtCOi ?: -M 25 -5Tt -£ = : -;== -6% -£=■; 15 -s% -6% 10 -;== mt 5 -s% -=== n IntamilUn jl 35.6% 3, f 54.5 2306.4 -7.3* Won-parfopsSng Austia 56.4 84.7 145% 131 Anne* f Forties 5,550.9 5,383.9 7.3% zelg _"i 107.6 104.6 -3.1% -731 Belarus 124.E 71.1 -mem -E.% I'enr.irk = 3.5 37.- J6.7% -21% Canada''' 428.2 533.7 24j6% -6% Rnland 54.4 ^8.4 -9.1% :== Malta 1.3 :.c 10.« none France1* 352.B 333J8 -5.4% :== Turtey 126.6 302.4 1333% none Germany 946.7 7553 JD5% -21% Unite States ^ 5574.1 4:2% -7% Greece 70.1 77.5 105% +25% Iceland 1.9 1 3 -25% +10% Other Regions ff.352.7 77,33+0 172.3% none keland MB 355 165% +13% Africa 5455 1532.4 39.4% none Italy 387.4 3743 -5.7% -6.5% Mddte East 543.6 1j647.1 mm none LujEmbcung 3.4 ICI -15% -28% N-OECD Eur 4 Eurasia :5.4 16.4% +27Ti China 2.277.7 B2503 282:2% none ^pa " 205.2 288 j6 265% +15% Sweden 52JI iO.4 J3.4% +4 = = IMTLMARM BUNKERS 3 £3.2 6022 S53% Elav and 41.6 413 -05% -;== IMTL AVIATION BUIttERS 2 = 6.3. 4773 88.4% United Kingdom 54B.3 157 £ -16.7% 1Z5TL European Union -15 3082.7 2527.1 -35% -;== WOULD 20.973.9 31,7343 51.3% Non-Annax I Partlse Kyoto targets Non-Ririlclpa:lng Annax I Parties Kyoto Partrtswltti targets 199Q 1993 1998 18 2052 2005 2D1: (1) On 15 December 20 11, Canada withd rew fnorr :he Kyoto Protocol. This ac_ion became efTec_Jve 'or Canada on 15 December 2D 1Z (2) The actual country targets ancly to a basket of six greenhouse gases and allow sinks and international credits to be used for compliance. The overall "Kyoto target" is estimated for this publication by applying the country targets to IEA data for CO2 emissions fiom ^jel combustion, and is only shown as an indication. The overall target for the combined EU-15 under the PiotDcol is -B%, bir "fie member countries have agreed on a burden-sharing a rrargement as listed. (3) Emissions from Monaco are included with France. \4) Composition of regions differs from elsewhere in this publicaJon to take into account coun:ries tha: are not Kyoto Parties. (5) The Kyoto target is calculated as percentage of Ihe 1BS0 CCb emissions from fuel combustion only, therefore i: does not represent thetDtal target for the six-gas basket This assumes lhat the reduction targets are spread equally across all gases. o limit global temperature increase to less than 2°C above pre-industrial level, countries are negotiating a new climate agreement (to be finalised at COP21 in Paris 2015). t builds on the voluntary emission reduction goals for 2020 that were made at COP 15 in Cobenhagen. eveloped and developing countries with these aims account for over 80% of global emissions, (goals nevertheless not sufficient to fulfill 2°C limit). The nationally-determined targets will be complemented by an agreed Framework for measuring, reporting and verifying emissions, and accounting for achievement of targets, and by enhanced actions on adaptation, technology development and on the provision of financial resources. While obligations are to start from 2020, emissions from the energy sector need to peak by 2020 if there is to be a reasonable chance of limiting temperature rise to below 2°C. Complementary initiatives outsode the UNFCCC are needed. Climate policies - dealing with emissions reduction as tne primary goal and outcome. Carbon pricing Regulation of GHG emissions Subsidy for emissions-reducting activities Policies to develop CCS IMUCCTirc i\ ri a rt t h* « r ljkvFi i.^ ul 37 Energy policies - implemented primarily for other reasons wit emissions reductions one of a number of their benefits. Energy efficiency programmes to overcome barriers to cost-effective investment in energy-savings Technology deployment policies (incl. RES support) which drive the deployment of cleaner energy options Energy taxes and subsidies, which change the prices of fuels, impacting production and consumption choices. Regulation of conventional pollutants from fossil-fueled power stations to improve air quality. EVflWSnHui* I INVESltCE 00 ROIVOJE VZDUAvAnI 38 A wide range of energy and climate policies reduce greenhouse gas emissions Policy Type Policy options Price-based instruments Taxes on CO2 directly Taxes/charges on inputs or outputs of process (e.g. fuel and vehicle taxes) Subsidies for emissions-reducing activities Emissions trading systems (cap and trade or baseline and credit) Command and control regulations Technology standards (eg biofuel blend mandate, minimum energy performance standards) Performance standards (e.g. fleet average C02 vehicle efficiency) Prohibition or mandating of certain products or practices Reporting requirements Requirements for operating certification (e.g. HFC handling certification) Land use planning, zoning Technology support policies Public and private RD&D funding Public procurement Green certificates (renewable portfolio standard or clean energy standard) Feed-in tahffs Public investment in underpinning infrastructure for new technologies Policies to remove financial barriers to acquihng green technology (loans, revolving funds) Information and voluntary approaches Rating and labelling programmes Public information campaigns Education and training Product certification and labelling Award schemes Source: Hood (2011), based on de Serres, Murtiri and Nicolleti (2010). Carbon pricing Economics is applied — to decrease demand we need to raise its cost. If the price of fossil fuels is increased the amount of emission will decrease. Trying to find the balance of the costs and benefits of carbon production, not to reducing it entirely. To internalize the externalities. Instruments that reach throughout the economy, influencing all production and consumption decisions. Putting the price on GHGs emissions to reflect the societal costs of climate change caused by these emissions. 1) figuring out how much carbon we want to put into the environment. 2) Then a cost must be applied. Both these systems raise some revenue that could be used to offset the negative macroeconomic impacts of energy price rises. □ G l ma un : I INVE5TICE 00 R0IV0JE V Z D E L AV A N I ml 40 Cap-and-trade systems A govt assigns to itself the right to put emissions into the environment. It defines what it believes to be the socially optimal quantity of 9emissions. The govt generates a number of permits equal to the amount of 9allowable emissions. These permits are allocated to emitters to trade with them — market is 9created. = economically efficient, provides incentives for efectivity of the system. To develop technology that would allow one to reduce emissions at a cost lower than that of buying a permit, that suprs innovation and technological development. Current and proposed emissions trading systems Start year 2013 Scan* Electricity and industry Sectors To be determined Stan year »U Sec tar. Electntity and industry Sort yea/ 2009 hi Sedan Electricity Senora To be determined Sectors To be determined Swit/rr land H Start yea r i'JJS Sec ton Electricity and industry European Economic Area Start year 2005 Sect ort ftectric«y Industry and aviation Start year 2013 Ones M|n(, Tianen. Shanghai Chongqing. Shenzhen Provinces Guangdong, Hubei Sectors Vary by plot scheme to ■ Tobe Jim Ii»-,all Start year 2010 Sectors Commercial bu dings and industry Start year 2011 Sectors CommerelaI buildings and industry o- / (bode ineeo Sectors To be determined Australia Start year 2012 Start) New Zealand -2008 I In place I Implementation scheduled I Under consideration Sectors Electricity, nduslry. waste, forestry, domestic aviation and shipping Sectors Electricity, industry, «»aste, forestry, transport fuels and domestic aviation Source: IEA (2013a) Carbon taxes Norway - C02 tax introduced in 1991. Applied to oil products, emissions from oil and gas production and gas used for heating and transport. Sectors covered by EU ETS exempted from carbon tax, with exeption of the offshore oil and gas sector. From 2013 the tax level has been increased to offset the falling EUA price. Japan — introduced in 2012 to raise revenue for energy efficiency and RES programmes, not as a direct price incentive. Switzerland — C02 levy intended as an incentive for energy efficiency and for shifting toward cleaner heating and proces fuels (not to raise revenue). In place since 2008. Increased from 12 CHF/tC02 to 120 CHF/tC02. INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁNI 'IRĚTvO ĚnOLĚTvr, n»i' *N I i T^"^* ] Subsidies (or credits) for emissions-reducing activities Since they do not (direcdy) raise energy prices could be Ipolitically easier to implement. But: Subsidies rely on govt budgets, so they are vulnerable to cuts in difficult economic circumstances (instability). The price signals are effective only for individual projects or narrow sectors of the economy — not suffucient to drive the long term decarbonisation transition. INVESllCE 00 R0IV0JE VZDElAvAnI ml 44 Regulation of greenhouse gas emissions Regulatory controls of the GSGs emitted by new/existing fossil fuel infrastructure. May have an important role to play in driving the retirement of existing old, high-emissions infrastructure. UK, Canada (new construction to be no more emissions-intensive than natural gas). In 2013 EPA published regulations to limit emissions of newly-constructed power plants requiring CCS for any new coal-fired generation. Policies to develop ( INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE V Z D ELÁVÁNJ ] Energy taxes and subsidies Non-climate objectives (funding of infrastructure, revenue rasing), can shift the average and relative prices of fuels, therefore act as a significant carbon price, (and vice versa). ] Energy efficiency The primary motivation for energy efficiency policies is cost savings to consumers and society, improved energy security. Emissions savings a positive by-product. Performance standards, information and labelling, energy provider obligations in Hghtning, equipment and buildings. ] Development and deployment of low-carbon supply Technology support policies — research development to demonstration projects to support for deployment. IT"!! INVESllCE 00 R0IV0JE VZDElAvAnI ml 47 Energy efficiency policies alongside a carbon price Ignoring energy efficiency potential can lead to higher carbon prices INVESTICE 00 ROZVOJE VZDĚLÁVÁNI