Conflict 1/26 Conflict: Types and Trends H˚avard Mokleiv Nyg˚ard Peace Research Institute Oslo March 9, 2015 Conflict Course introduction 2/26 Outline Course introduction A taxonomy of conflict Who fights? Why do they fight? Where do they fight? Consequences of conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? Conflict Course introduction 3/26 Assignment: Paper 1 Pick a conflict you’re interested in and utilize two of the theories from the course to attempt to explain why the conflict occurred. In this we want you to compare the two theories and discuss what they get right and what they got wrong. The core questions is, can this theory explain this conflict? 2 Alternatively you can pick one theory and use it to explain a (one) conflict. Conflict Course introduction 4/26 What does a paper look like? The paper could be a small-N or large-N study It should have a CLEAR and researchable hypothesis Don’t spend a ton of time reviewing literature you are not going to use Observable implications Guide books: For large-N studies: King, Gary (2006) Publication, Publication, PS: Political Science and Politics For small-N studies: van Evera, Stephen (1997) ‘Guide to Methods for Students of Political Science’ Ithaca: Cornell University Press Conflict Course introduction 5/26 Structure of the course Topics: What is Conflict Ethnicity, Cleavages and Conflict Institutional Design, Quality and Conflict Development and Conflict Forecasting Conflict Non-violent Conflict Strong focus on the quantitative / statistical study of conflict Focus mostly on internal armed conflict Conflict A taxonomy of conflict 6/26 A taxonomy of conflict Who fights? Governments Organizations Individuals Why do they fight? Politics? Economics? Insanity? Where do they fight Home or away? Consequences of conflict How many were killed? What is the time frame? Conflict Who fights? 7/26 Interstate war Figure: Interstate war Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict Who fights? 8/26 Intrastate war Figure: Intrastate war Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict Who fights? 9/26 One-sided violence war Figure: One-sided violence Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict Who fights? 10/26 Non-state conflict Figure: Non-state conflict Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict Who fights? 11/26 Criminal violence Figure: Criminal violence Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Goverment Insurgents Criminal organizations Non−violent Organization Unorganized individuals Conflict Why do they fight? 12/26 Why do they fight? Incompatibility 1 Government? 2 Territory? 3 Ideology/Religion? 4 Security? 5 Insanity? 6 Irrationality? 7 Wealth? 8 Government in disguise? Often difficult to observe Self-reporting Conflict Where do they fight? 13/26 Why do they fight? Location 1 Which party to the conflict fights on home turf? One? All? None? 2 Is the conflict located in the area of contention? Imperial conflict 3 Is the conflict located within a recognized state? Extra-systemic conflict Conflict Consequences of conflict 14/26 Consequences of conflict Fatalities 1 What fatalities should be counted? Soldiers killed in combat Civilians killed in combat Killings civilians outside of combat Conflict-related overmortality 2 Other forms of damage? DALY Conflict Consequences of conflict 15/26 DR Congo International Rescue Committee (IRC) claim: Cumulative deaths due to conflict: 5.4 million (+/- 2.2m) 5 household surveys 2000-07 Crude Death Rate (CDR) compared to average SSA Critique: what is the counterfactual CDR? Battle-deaths: 145,000 (1998-2001) Conflict Consequences of conflict 16/26 Duration Private Baldrick: No, the thing is: The way I see it, these days there’s a war on, right? and, ages ago, there wasn’t a war on, right? So, there must have been a moment when there not being a war on went away, right? and there being a war on came along. So, what I want to know is: How did we get from the one case of affairs to the other case of affairs? Captain Blackadder: Do you mean ‘How did the war start?’ What defines the start of a conflict? The statement of the incompatibility? 1 The decision to use violence? 2 The first fatality? 3 The fulfillment of all criteria? What defines the end of a conflict? 1 Peace treaty/ceasefire? 2 End of combat? Conflict Consequences of conflict 17/26 What is a conflict? How do we separate between one and several conflicts? 1 Actors? 2 Time Periods? 3 Incompatibility? 4 Location? Conflict Consequences of conflict 18/26 UCDP’s definition of conflict? Armed Conflict (State-based): 1 Contested political incompatibility 2 Organized parties 3 At least one party is government of a state 4 At least 25 battle related deaths (BRD) (999 < War) Non-State Conflict 1 Use of violent force 2 Between organized parties 3 Of which none is a government 4 At least 25 BRD One-sided Conflict 1 Use of force 2 By organized actor against non-violent civilians 3 At least 25 BRD Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 19/26 Trends in conflict Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 20/26 Conflict onsets Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 21/26 One sided violence Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 22/26 Non state conflict Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 23/26 Countries in conflict Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 24/26 Battle related deaths Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 25/26 Is war declining? War is declining! 1 The central role of the state Monopoly of violence Internal peace Reduced exposure to interstate war 2 World Wars 1 and 2 sharply diverge from the trend Normann Angell (1911) The Great Illusion 3 Key reason Peace has become more profitable War has not become more lethal Conflict Is the world getting more or less peaceful? 26/26 Our better angels Identifies the same trend. 1 Explanations The Leviathan (again!) Trade and commerce (the profitability of peace again) Feminization: increases respect for interests and values of women Cosmopolitanism: makes it easier to identify with ‘others’ Rise of reason and rationality 2 Fewer people are growing up in violent societies where they are taught that violence is acceptable, a way of life