Peter Spáč 13.4.2015 Primaries —The most inclusive method for selecting candidates — —Inclusion of „masses“ in the nomination processes — —Opening the gates even for non-members to participate — —Sometimes „primaries“ refer to selection process in general — — USA and Europe —Main differences: — —Time of emergence — —Character of political parties — —Legal background — —Spread — — — — — Primaries in USA —Importance of federalism — —Primaries emerged in the beginning of 20th century — —Implementation from the above (Ware) — —A developing story — — — — http://www.kuhnglobal.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2009-usa-flag-graphics.jpg Nominations in the 19th century —System of caucuses and conventions: —Caucus – members choose delegates —Convention – delegates choose candidates — —Extremely decentralized: —Different practices among states (even inside the states) —No guarantee that delegates follow the line of members — —Largely without formal rules — —Corruption and frauds — — — Nominations in the 19th century —Growing dissatisfaction à need for a reform: —Support of participation —Parties alone had not enough power — —Reform could be done only via legislature — —Supportive factor of adoption of the Australian ballot — —Most states adopted formal rules by the end of the century — — Adoption of primaries —Crawford County (Pennsylvania) – historically first to use primaries in 1842 — —Until the end of century only on county level — —Experimentation on the state level: —First years of the new century (until 1906) —Various forms – voluntary, mandatory only in some counties, mandatory only when certain conditions were met — Adoption of primaries —1907 – 1915 – intense spread of primaries in states — — — — — — — —(Ware 2004) — Primaries in USA —The „historical“ case — —Development from informal delegate model of 19th century to formal rules and further adoption of primaries — —Legislative acts for whole states à forms of primaries in USA states differ — — — — — — — http://www.kuhnglobal.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/2009-usa-flag-graphics.jpg Primaries in Europe —The „recent“ case — —Adoption of primaries in later decades of 20th century — —More motives: —Organizational changes in parties (from cadre to cartel) —Compensation of gap between parties and voters —An image tool — — — — — — — — Cadre (elite) parties — —The oldest type — —Parties of the nobles — —Decentralization and weak structure — —Typically conservatives and liberals — — — — — — — Mass parties — — —Spread of suffrage in early 20th century — — —Typically socialists / social democrats — — —Mass membership — — — — — — — Catch-all parties — —After de-freezing of party systems — —Lower stress on ideology — —Stronger role of leadership, weakening of membership — —Access to various interest groups — — — — — Cartel parties — —Further trends of catch-all parties — —Strong role of leadership — —De-ideologization and professionalization — —Link to state and cartel with other parties — — — — — Why primaries? —Trends in 2nd half of 20th century — —Party in public office concentrates rather on access to government than seeking of social integration — —Decreasing membership rates — —Higher volatility of parties’ support, lower loyalty of voters — —Loss of legitimacy, anti-party sentiments — —Primaries as one of the solutions? — — — — Purpose of adoption of primaries —Attractiveness for (new) members —Formally stronger role of ordinary members —A link between membership and the parties procedures — —Image —Primaries as the most democratic decision method —Improvement of image compared to other parties — —New option for voters (open primaries): —Voters may take part on parties’ internal processes —Citizens without the need to be formal members — — — — — Primaries as power tactics? —Katz and Mair (1995) — —Primaries as a strategy of party leaderships how to gain more power — —Equal vote for all members eliminates the role of middle cadres and party activists — —Leadership has better chance to control the mass membership than the organized cadres — —Power game in the name of party democratization — — — — Primaries - types —Not the same terminology in USA and Europe - different role of party members — —Ranging from „open to all“ to „closed“ — —Many types - Non-partisan, blanket, open, semi-closed, (American) closed, (European) closed — — — — — — — Primaries - effects Selectorate Inclusiveness Representation Competition Cohesion Elite / Committee Low High Low High Party delegates Medium Medium High Medium Party members High Low Medium Lower Case studies http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg Iceland http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Slightly out of major interest in political science — —Since 1959: —List PR system for general elections —Very low influence of preferential voting (= high importance of candidate ranking on lists) — —Since 1970s: —Introduction of primaries by all major parties —Aim – to increase the legitimacy of nomination process — — — — — — Primaries in Iceland —Various forms — —Open / Semi-open / Closed —Consultative / Potentially binding / Binding —From limited vote to different formula — —Penetration (share of counties): —Social democrats 58 %, Independence party 55 %, Progressive party 37 % and Left-greens 32 % — — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Selection in 1971-2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Selection in 1971-2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Primaries in Iceland http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Consequences: — —Participation – membership rates, instant members — —Representation - women, young candidates — —Competition – turnover of incumbents — —Responsiveness – party cohesion Participation http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Specific role of membership in Iceland (resembling more USA than Europe) — —Member fees paid irregularly or even not at all — —Weak link between parties and members — —„Active“ membership often means only participating on primaries Participation http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Rather stable membership rates with an increase in recent years — —Shift to semi-open and closed primaries as an incentive for supporters to join the parties? — —Instant membership has not been confirmed: —High party identification —Even in parties with more inclusive primaries (Social Democrats, Independence Party) Members in 1983-2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Party identification in 2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Representation http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Women: —Primaries produced more women candidates who won seats (without statistical significance), but less women in competitive positions —Primaries increased amount of women on the lists, but out of competitive positions — —Age: —Primaries improved chances of younger candidates to win a seat Competition http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —Primaries did not reduce the amount of competition — —Comparable renewal of MPs by all techniques except the open primaries — —Incumbents are thus not favored when primaries are applied Renewal of MPs 1991-2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Responsiveness http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —High unity of MPs voting among parties — —Slightly lower when in opposition, but still over 90 % — —Cohesion comparable to remaining Northern European countries with more exclusive selection of candidates — —Since 80s the parties learned how to secure their cohesion Party cohesion 1991-2009 — — —(Indridason, Kristinsson) — — — — — http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg Primaries in Iceland http://www.flagsinternational.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/i/c/iceland2.jpg —An exceptional case in Europe as for the spread and usage of primaries — —After several decades since adopting primaries the Icelandic parties remained united with a strong organization — —Possible role of context Italy and France —Selection of the prime candidate — —Italy: — —Left. vs. right parties (inclusion vs. exclusion) — —2005 – first primaries won by Prodi — —2013 – primaries of the left bloc Italia – Bene Comune — http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg Italy and France —Selection of the prime candidate — —France: — —The left inspired by Italy — —2006 – primaries of Socialists won by S. Royal — —2012 presidential elections – primaries organized by PS and Radicals — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg Formal rules —Open primaries - all citizens, possibly also foreigners, voting under 18 only in France — —Two round system — —Fee (2 EUR in Italy, 1 EUR in France) — —Candidates: —Registration —Signatures in Italy as the only option, France allows also endorsement by party officials — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg Italy —Primaries for the prime minister — —Italia – Bene Comune – coalition of various parties — —Screening of candidates by council of party officials — —Officially only party leaders were allowed to compete à not fully followed — —5 candidates: —Three from Democratic Party (Bersani, Renzi, Puppato) —One each from two smaller parties (Vendola, Tabacci) — http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg Italy - results http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg France —Primaries for the presidential elections — —Shift from 2006 presidential primaries (closed) to a fully open model in 2011 — —Organized by Socialists and Radicals — —Six candidates — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg France - results http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — Italy and France —Impact of participation and competition on later electoral results — —Expectations: — —High participation – sign of attractiveness of candidates resulting to better result — —High competition (close victory) – possible distraction of runner ups’ supporters to abstain from voting resulting to worse result http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg Italy - participation http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg France - participation http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — Italy - competition http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg France - competition http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — Italy and France —Correlation outcomes: — —Turnout in primaries has positive correlation with better electoral results —Competition was negatively correlated with electoral results —Effects visible only for whole blocs and dominant parties — —Which factor is stronger? — http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg Italy and France — — —(Di Luca, Venturino) — — — — — http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg Italy and France —Final results: — —Turnout (participation) was the best predictor for the electoral results of both blocs in both countries — —Higher competition slightly decreased the support of Italia – Bene Comune — —In France the level of competition had no impact on electoral results of the left parties http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_AcBUSVxs82w/TRV5T3cmVfI/AAAAAAAAj-Y/SWcFWaZTkMY/s1600/France-Flag-Photo.j pg http://www.united-states-flag.com/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/9df78eab33525d08d6e5fb8d27136 e95/w/i/wit35p_-00_lifestyle_italy-flag-3x5ft-superknit-polyester_1.jpg