Climate change and fossil fuels V Filip Cernoch cemoch@jnail.muni.cz center for energy studies Explaining the climate change • „How could scientists predict the climate in 100 years when they cannot predict the weather tomorrow?" • Climate: atmospheric conditions over a long period of time (years to centuries) • Weather: short time (minutes to weeks) • Consequences for prediction — climate undergoes more gradual change (than weather) and is easier to predics center for energy studies 1) The planet's temperature is rising • Over the past 130 years the global average temperature has increased by 0,8°C (more than half of that in last 35 years) • Ancient ice samples (from Antarctica and other places) are analysed — their layers are dated and gas bubles inside are analysed • C02 concentration is measured by infrared spectroscopy or mass spectrometry • Isotope ratios of water molecules are measured to determine historical temperatures center for energy studies 1) The planet's teperature is rising • Earth's climate has always fluctuated. The cooler period — ice ages or glacial periods, the warmer period — interglacial periods • The rate of change has become more dramatic since the Industrial Revolution = anthropogenic origins center for energy studies Temperature Changes in the Past 800,000 Years SOOiDDT 600,000 400,000 : oo.ooo Years Before Present 15 75 Temperature (:C) relative to 1961-1990 average -15 center for energy studies 2) C02 level is increasing (also methane and nitrous oxide) Rates of Change in the Past 250 Years CO2 Concentrations in the Past 1000 Years 390 360 330 C02/ppmv 300 Mauna Loa atmospheric • Law Dome (Ethendge et al.. 1996) • Siple (Fnedli et al.. 1986) • EPICA DML (S»egenihaier et al., 2005) S. Pole (Siegenthaler et al.. 2005) 1 J J 270 240 1400 1600 1800 2000 Graph courtesy o> Eric WoM at BAS Age ( year B.C.E.) 3) We are responsible for the increase in CO •Human C02 emissions (20 billion tonnes/y) are small compared to natural emission (776 billion tonnes/y). • But natural absorptions (788 billion tonnes/y) roughly balance natural emisssions. • Carbon 12 isotope to carbon 13 isotope ratio increases (isotope = different atoms with the same chemical behavior but with different masses). center for energy studies Atmosphere 750 Legend Unrts Pdogram* (Pg) « 10 * 15 gC • Pool* Pg • fiunm Pg/y«o» 4) Increased C02 is the primary driver of greenhouse effect • Inbound solar radiation has short wavelenghts and high energy contents. This radiation passes through the atmosphere. Some energy is absorbed by the ground (warming it up). Some energy is reflected back to the space • That reflected radiation has lower energy levels and longer wavelengths. 80% of the outgoing radiation is trapped in the lower troposphere • Energy trapped in the troposphere warns the surface. • More GHGs in the atmosphere trap more outbound solar radiation, thus warming the planet — anthropogenic climate change center for energy studies Sunlight passes through the atmosphere and warms the Earth's surface. This heat is radiated back toward space. Most of the outgoing heat is absorbed by greenhouse gas molecules and re-emitted in all directions, warming the surface of the Earth and the lower atmosphere. center for energy studies 4) Increased C02 is the primary driver of greenhouse effect • C02 traps infrared radiation (thermal radiation). Proven by laboratory experiments and satellites (satelit data from 1970; direct experimental evidence) that find less heat escaping out to space over the las few decades • Temperature — average kinetic energy of the molecules within a substance = the more radiation trapped in the atmosphere the higher temperature is center for energy studies Climate change explained • The extra C02 in the atmosphere amplified the original warming (positive feedback). • Positive/negative feedbacks — examining different period throughout Earth's history shows that positive feedbacks amplify any initial warming • Positive feedback — warming keeps more water in the air and more wapour traps more heat • Negative feedback — more water vapour causes more clauds, reflecting sunlight center for energy studies Climate change explained Indicators of a Warming World ^^^^^^^^^^^ Parmesan & Yohe 2003J2, NOAA center for energy studies Summary • Earth's climate has undergone changes over long periods of time (several ice ages, period of warming) • Previous changes were dramatic but gradual (thousands of years) • Today's change is extremely fast and the pace is increasing. Until 250 years ago the highest rate of temperature increase recorded was approximately 0,003°C/y For the last ten years, it is 0,017°C • Global warming vs. climate change. The first suggests that Earth's climate is warming on average, but it is not fully true. Factors such as precipitation and evaporation are also changing. And these changes often affect climate patterns elsewhere in the world center for energy studies Summary • There is scientific consensus on • correlation between the concentration of C02 and temperature • that humans release anthropogenic compounds into the environment, resulting in previously unseen rises in atmospheric gas concentrations and temperature • There is continuous debate on • the proportion of changes caused by this anthropogenic compound vs. other causes center for energy studies Climate change impacts • Melting ice • The vast majority of the world's glaciers are melting faster than are replenished • 1/3 of North Pole's ice sheets melted since 90s • Accelerated sea level rise, increase coastal flooding • 20 cm in the last century (40% thermal expansivity, 60% melting) • Actual rate 3mm/y • Problem for low-lying communities • Increase in extreme weather events • Climate change increases certain types of extreme weather events — heat waves, coastal flooding, extreme precipitation events, more sever droughts center for energy studies umber of Climate-related Disasters Around the World (1980-2011) Climate change impacts • Health impacts • Increased air pollution, a longer and more intense allergy seasons, the spread of insect-borne diseases, more frequent heat waves, flooding = costly risks to public health. • Food problems and water • According to IPCC 1°C = 65 million people starving • Increase of the temperature of more than 2°C = 3 billion people without water supply • Between 18-35% of plant and animal species is committed to extinction by 2050 (oceans are absorbing much of the C02 in the air, which leads to ocean acidification — destabilising the whole oceanic food chain). An estimated 1 billion people depend on the ocean for more than 30% of their animal protein • Climate refugees • Some others center for energy studies Summary • Rich will adapt and poor will suffer center for energy studies Recent trends in C02 emission - energy perspective • Steady level of C02 (280 ppm) in the pre-industrial era; in 2013 396 ppm (40% higher than in the mid-1800s). Average growth of 2 ppm/y • Significant increases in levels of methane and nitrous oxide • The use of energy represents by far the largest source of emissions center for energy studies Shares of global anthropogenic GHG, 2010* Others* 14% Agriculture 11% Industrial processes 6% Energy 69% GOj 90% cm 9% N20 1% * Others include large-scale biomass burning, post-bum decay, peat decay, indirect N2O emissions from non-agricultural emissions of NO* and NH3, Waste, and Solvent Use. Source: IEA estimates for C02 from fuel combustion and EDGAR 4.2 FT2010 estimates for all other sources. Recent trends in C02 emission - energy perspective • Fossil fuels account for most of the world energy supply (82% of the global energy supply in 2012) • Since 1870, C02 emissions from fuel combustion have risen exponentially • Since the Industrial Revolution, annual C02 emissions from fuel combustion increased from near zero to almost 32 GtC02 in 2012 center for energy studies World primary energy supply Gtoe 4 ■2 10 8 i- 4 2 C 14% 86% 1971 iFossil □Nonfossi 2012 GtCOa 35 3C 25 2C 15 IC Trend in C02 emissions from fossil fuel combustion 0 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., United States. Recent trends in C02 emission - energy perspective • In the last decade the coal have replaced oil as the largest source of C02 emissions •The top 10 emitting countries account for 2/3 of global C02 emissions center for energy studies Fuel shares in global CO2 emissions 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 1 i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 i i i i 1 i i i 1 1 i 1 1 1 1 i 1 1 1 i 1971 1976 19BI 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2012 Top 10 emitting countries in 2012 GtC02 Coal---Oil -----Gas Top 10 total: 21.0 GtC02 World total: 31.7GtC02 center for energy studies Recent trends in C02 emission • Emissions per capita generally decrease in time accross regions • All top five emitters reduced emissions per unit of GDP, while emissions per capita showed contrasting trends center for energy studies Trends in CO2 emission intensities for the top five emitting countries* tn =) I/:. <_j 0 r-j 1 o t 0 o 0 5 10 15 CO2/ population (tCO; percapita) O 1990 W 2012 * The size of the circle represents the total C02 emissions from the country in that year. CO2 emissions per capita by major world regions tC02 per capita World Annex II North Amenca Annex II Asia Oceania Annex I EIT Middle East Annex II Europe China * Other Latin America Asia excluding China Africa China includes Hong Kong, China. in 15 12012 Q1990 center for energy studies Summary • Economic growth strongly linked to consumption of fossil fuels • Substitution of fossil fuels is essential but extremely difficult center for energy studies Sources IEA: C02 Emission from Fuel Combustion center for energy studies