BOSNIA‘S CIVIL WAR:
      ORIGINS AND VIOLENCE DYNAMICS
by Stathis N. Kalyvas and Nicholas Sambanis

Structure of the Text
1.Background of the conflict
2.The COLLIER-HOEFFLER model
„fit“ to the Bosnian Civil War
3.Dynamic of Violence in Bosnian Civil War
4.Conclusion(s)

PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
–Collier-Hoeffler (CH) Model = econometric model which predicts the outbreak of civil conflict
–Author applies the CH Model to Bosnian Civil War and observes any discrepancies
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PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
–CH Model variables:
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PRIMARY COMODITY EXPORTS
GDP PER CAPITA
DIASPORA
GDP GROWTH
MONTAINIOUS TERRAIN
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION
POPULATION SIZE
SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION
ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
RELIGIOUS FRACTINALIZATION
ETHNIC DOMINANCE
INCOME INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
PEACE DURATION

PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
–CH Model variables:
–
PRIMARY COMODITY EXPORTS
GDP PER CAPITA
DIASPORA
GDP GROWTH
MONTAINIOUS TERRAIN
GEOGRAPHIC DISPERSION
POPULATION SIZE
SOCIAL FRACTIONALIZATION
ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION
RELIGIOUS FRACTINALIZATION
ETHNIC DOMINANCE
INCOME INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
PEACE DURATION

–Peacetime variable
–Extend the impact of previous war
–Ethnic Fractionalization /Dominance
–< Ethnic Polarization
PART 1: Collier, Hoeffler and Bosnian Civil War
Level of Democracy
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•Extend the impact of political institutions
Income inequality
•Switch to Interregional Inequality
•Woodward‘s theory about rapid liberalization
GDP Growth
Diaspora
•Not just financial help

PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
–Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
àalways generates greater levels of violence
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PART 2: The Dynamics of Violence
–Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
àalways generates greater levels of violence
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–Ethnic Cleansing
 Greater violence at the beginning of the conflict, Northern Bosnia
–Formation of vigilant groups and paramilitary forces
 However organized state forces were typically more restrained
–Negative influence of the international community
 Negotiation increased military activities, changes in the dynamics of the conflict

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PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
–Bosnian Civil War = Symmetric Nonconventional War
àalways generates greater levels of violence
–
–Ethnic Cleansing
 Greater violence at the beginning of the conflict, Northern Bosnia
–Formation of vigilant groups and paramilitary forces
 However organized state forces were typically more restrained
–Negative influence of the international community
 Negotiation increased military activities, changes in the dynamics of the conflict

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PART 2: The Dynamic of Violence
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ETHNIC CLEAVAGES
VIOLENCE
„Rather than translating deep divisions into violent conflict, the evidence suggests a situation of
rapid „ethnification“ of violence once the war began.“ (Kalyvas and Sambanis, 2005)
•Soldiers who volunteered just for vengeance
•Evidence of violence with private motives
•Large number of conscripts
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Conclusion
–CH model does not fit perfectly
–CH model itself changes after including data set from Bosnia
–If there‘s ethnic polarization before the conflict, the war enlarges it significantly
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§
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Thank you for your attention.
Alžběta Bajerová