PHILLIPS BRIAN J, “CIVIL WAR, SPILLOVER AND NEIGHBOR´S MILITARY“, CONFLICT MANAGEMENT AND PEACE
SCIENCE VOL. 32, NO. 4 (2015): 425-442
Civil War, spillover and neighbor´s military

OBJECTIVES AND KEY CONCEPTS
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—Core objective of the paper:
-Introduction of mechanism of how civil war can negatively affect the neighbouring country through
increased military expenditures
—Filling the gap in topics of:
¡Determinants of military spending
¡International effects of civil wars
¡Civil war and its geographical implications
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PREVIOUS RESEARCH
—Studies on:
¡domestic effects of civil wars (capital flight and human capital loss- Collier 1999, Chamarbagwala
and Morán 2011)
¡International consequences (trade reduction, neighbour´s country economic reduction- Murdoch and
Sandler 2002 and 2004)
¡Relation of civil war and economy and the regional dimension of conflict (Collier  et al. 2003,
Gleditsch 2002)
—Only few studies focused on international economic consequencs of civil war
—Missing link:
¡the connection of military spending in nearby country and its negative economic growth

NEGATIVE CONSEQUENCES OF MILITARY SPENDING



SPILLOVER AND ITS POSSIBLE INFLUENCE ON MILITARY SPENDING
-Ethnical imbalance
-Economic challenge
-Political crisis
-Pressure for involvement
-Fear of attack on host state and its population
-Expectation of retaliation from neighbour state
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-Challenge to territorial sovereignty
-Incidents (e.g. Munition crossing borders)

Hypothesis 1:
“A country bordering a civil war zone has a higher level of military expenditures than a country
not in such a situation.“
-Emphasis on spill-over effects
-Influence of civil war zone on border is bigger than at any other place in the neighbour country

Hypothesis 2:
„The positive impact on military expenditures of a bordering civil war is greater than the impact
of a civil war in a neighboring country that does not reach the shared border.“
-Ruling out other possible causal mechanisms
-Country´s position a key for this hypothesis
-While first one general about higher expenditures during border war, here clear difference between
expenditures in bordering and non-bordering civil war

METHODOLOGY AND RESEARCH
—DATA:
¡Developing countries (not OECD), 1950-2006
—Type of studies:
¡Monadic country-year analysis (135 countries)
¡Dyad-year analysis (575 pairs of states)
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—VARIABLES
¡Milex
¡Neighbor civil war (reaches border)
¡Neighbor civil war (does not reach border)
¡Neighbor´s milex
¡Inter-state war
¡Civil war
¡Population
¡Trend
¡History of war with state 2 (only for dyadic)

RESULTS
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—A country bordering a civil war zone has a higher level of military expenditures than a country
not in such a situation. -> hypothesis 1 confirmed
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—A civil war not reaching the shared border is associated with lower levels of military spending ->
hypothesis 2 confirmed
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—Inter-state war, civil war, history of war -> higher military spending

ARMS RACE AND INTERVENTION
—Possible associations for bigger military spending
—ARMS RACE:
¡“the effect of nearby civil war on a state’s military spending is conditional on the military
spending of the civil war state“
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¡X military spending depends on location of civil war, not neighbour´s military spending
¡X no difference between the values of neighbour´s military spending and neighbour´s civil war on
borders variable
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—FOREIGN INTERVENTION
¡“military spending is caused by country militarily supporting one side of the conflict“
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¡X only 20% of interventions by neighbouring countries
¡X if country intervened in neighbour´s war- not significant in regards to military spending
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CONCLUSION AND CRITICAL REFLECTION
—Geographical position of civil war -> international implications
¡States threatened only if civil war reaches its border -> reason is fear of spill-over effect ->
military spending
¡Some countries affected more than others -> those not bordering civil war zone even tend to spend
less than their average
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—Further research?
¡Need to test the hypothesis
—Critical reflection
¡Unclarity about data selection- why 1950-2006? Countries and their combinations?
¡Different data sources for milex and other variables