The U.S. Presidential Elections Miloš Gregor / POL364 / March 8, 2016 POTUS mgregor@fss.muni.cz GOP mgregor@fss.muni.cz Presidential oath “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the office of the President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” The Constitution of the United States,article II, section 1, as modified by the twelfth amendment (1804). mgregor@fss.muni.cz 200 year of experience:
 From George Washington to Barack Obama mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣the active campaigning style developed slowly ‣negative roots mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview ‣Washington – dignified manners, republicans’ dream ‣individual liberty ‣popular democracy ‣sacrifice ‣campaigns dangerous mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview ‣Washington – dignified manners, republicans’ dream ‣individual liberty ‣popular democracy ‣sacrifice ‣campaigns dangerous But! 18th century dream will soon give up mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview ‣1789: 1st president George Washington ‣1800: Thomas Jefferson on his farm ‣Republicans: posters, handbills etc. ‣Republicans vs. Federalists ‣Jefferson as a rapist? mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: The 1800 Elections ‣Partisan attacks, but not national campaigns ‣Only for white men owning property ‣1825 mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: The 1800 Elections ‣Jacksonian era ‣many democratic changes ‣Jackson elected by more popular votes ‣Jackson to abolish Electoral College mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1828 – 1852, Years of Change Democrats vs. Whigs mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣the first truly popular presidential election campaign ‣William H. Harriosn (Whig) vs. Martin van Buren (Dem.) ‣increase in right to vote ‣“penny press” ‣1830: 906 / 100 ‣1840: 1577 / 200 ‣campaign topics ‣elections for the people mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: The 1840 Elections ‣1861 – 1865: Abraham Lincoln ‣Republican Party became a strong national organization ‣behind the scene player ‣unpopular at the beginning mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 2nd half of 19th Century mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 2nd half of 19th Century ‣1896 ‣campaigns ‣William McKinley ‣William Jennings Bryan ‣1896 ‣campaigns ‣William McKinley ‣William Jennings Bryan modern but… ‣mix of merchandising and education ‣better speeches, tailor made mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 2nd half of 19th Century “Campaigning is only a political name for advertising.” mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣Roosevelt, Theodore ‣Taft, William, H. ‣Wilson, Woodrow ‣Harding, Warren ‣Coolidge, Calvin ‣Hoover, Herbert ‣Roosevelt, Franklin D. (1901 – 1909) (1909 – 1913) (1913 – 1921) (1921 – 1923) (1923 – 1929) (1929 – 1933) (1933 – 1945) mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1st half of 20th Century ‣campaigns were traditional ‣labour intensive ‣partisan ‣conventions, rallies, printed materials ‣ads in cinema ‣speeches mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1st half of 20th Century “The only thing we have to fear is fear itself.” mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1st half of 20th Century ‣Pearl Harbor ‣April 12, 1945 FDR died suddenly ‣Harry Truman became the President mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1st half of 20th Century mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 1st half of 20th Century ‣Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953 – 1961) ‣changes in campaigning style ‣BBDO ‣I Like Ike ‣Eisenhower Answers America ‣TV in 40 per cent of households mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: I Like Ike ‣1956 ‣running mate: Richard Nixon ‣end of Korean war ‣conflicts in Hungary, Israel, France Suez Canal ‣attacks on Nixon ‣Footbal / Peace mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: I Like Ike mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣John Fitzgerald Kennedy (1961 – 1963) ‣media training ‣positive image ‣family mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: JFK mgregor@fss.muni.cz mgregor@fss.muni.cz mgregor@fss.muni.cz mgregor@fss.muni.cz mgregor@fss.muni.cz mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣the very first TV debate ever ‣changing politics into the image fight ‣viewer vs. listeners ‣three debates all together ‣Nixon underestimated the first debate ‣Kennedy was facing the camera ‣team of supporters for answering the questions Historical overview: JFK vs. Nixon mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: JFK vs. Nixon ‣1964 overshadowed by JFK assassination ‣Johnson vs. Goldwater ‣raise of negative marketing ‣Daisy Historical overview: Going Dirty ‣Nixon, Richard ‣Ford, Gerald ‣Carter,Jimmy ‣Reagan, Ronald ‣Bush, George H. W. ‣Clinton, Bill ‣Bush, George W. ‣Obama, Barack (1969 – 1974) (1974 – 1977) (1977 – 1981) (1981 – 1989) (1989 – 1993) (1993 – 2001) (2001 – 2009) (2009 – now ) mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: 2nd half of 20th & 21st Century ‣Bill Clinton / Al Gore ‣George H. W. Bush / Dan Quyale ‣Ross Perrot ‣Larry King, Oprah, Phil Donahue etc. mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Let’s Play Sax mgregor@fss.muni.cz “It’s the economy, stupid!” Historical overview: Let’s Play Sax mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Let’s Play Sax mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣George W. Bush ‣no excitement during the campaign ‣son of former President ‣social security, Medicare, education ‣a unitor, not a divider Historical overview: Bush No. 2 mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣George W. Bush / Dick Cheney vs. John Kerry / John Edwards ‣war on terror ‣Iraq, Afghanistan ‣“selling the war” (Hollywood goes to war) ‣Usama bin Laden - marketing the war Historical overview: Bush No. 2, 2004 Edition 9/11 mgregor@fss.muni.cz 744 985 625 Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣Barack Obama / Joe Biden vs. John McCain / Sarah Palin ‣change ‣extremely well executed campaign ‣fundraising ‣grassroots campaigning ‣strong story ‣“Yes we can” Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣unexperienced ‣racial issue ‣John McCain: ‣experienced ‣war hero ‣always against Bush x Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣Yes We Can ‣We Are The Ones Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz McCain - $368MObama - $745M source: www.opensecrets.org Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣Mitt Romney ‣Ron Paul ‣Newt Gingrich ‣Rick Santuron ‣Buddy Roemer ‣Rick Perry ‣Jon Huntsman ‣Michele Bachmann ‣Gary Johnson ‣Herman Cain ‣Thaddeus McCotter ‣Tim Pawlenty Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Republican National Convention: August 27-30, 2012 Democratic National Convention: September 3-6, 2012 Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣The Choice ‣The Facts Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣No, I Can't ‣The Promise of America Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz ‣Great Recession ‣long-term federal budget ‣social insurance program ‣‘Obama care’ - economy recovery - job creation Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Obama - $1.107M Romney - $1.238M source: www.opensecrets.org Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz Historical overview: Restoring The Hope mgregor@fss.muni.cz 2016? mgregor@fss.muni.cz Thank for your attention.