ELECTIONS in RUSSIA
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NO!
Stay home, we’ll fill!

Having heard that son and daughter in law voted for UR
rewrote my will, leaving flat to cat
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HOW TO WIN ?
§Be popular?
§Clear slogan?
§Skillful team?
§Headquarters ?
§Charisma?
§Money?
§Actual agenda?
§…..
§Administrative resources
§Elite’s support
§RULES – law frameworks
§How to count?
§(and it’s NOT about falsifications or fraud!)
§

administrative resources
§the intervention of Executive authorities in the electoral process on the side of certain
candidates and parties
§Till 2000 – disconcentrated
§From 2003 - concentrated with increasing

unchoiced
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http://hushome.com/vb/attachment.php?attachmentid=14908

FEDERAL   LEVEL
§PRESIDENT
§1991
§1996
§• 2000
§• 2004
§• 2008
§• 2012
§• ? 2018 ?
§
§STATE DUMA
§1990
§• 1993
§• 1995
§ • 1999
§• 2003 UR
§• 2007
§• 2011
§•? 2016 ?
§
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http://all-biography.ru/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Elcin-Boris-Nikolaevich.jpg
http://www.pics-zone.ru/img.php?url=http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a9/Vladimir_Put
in_official_portrait.jpg
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Constitutional amendment  2008
to increase term of presidential powers till 6 years and the State Duma to 5 years

CASE #1
§
§3%
§? 97%
§108 mln
§ 2012- 65,3%
§???
§The rest DO
§know who you are!
§
§32%
http://www.gossipsdiary.com/Images/avatar.png http://bike-at-briegel.com/images/avatar/empty.gif
1996

Case#1 Solution   1996 VOTE or LOOSE!
§
§
§STRATEGY
§MONEY
§YOUTH
§MUSIC
Голосуй или проиграешь.jpg
http://musicmp3spb.org/images/s/sergei_minaev/fgolosui_ila068045e139c22797e1b1d.jpg
http://antifashist.com/images/102015/roby-vybory-12.jpg
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http://www.sergeyminaev.ru/v5/content/img/covers/vote-s.png

Case#1 Solution
§https:/plus.google.com/u/0/
§
§
http://dematom.com/images/2011/02/18/183453-nas_naebali_rashodimsia_k_nachalu_1996_g_elitsin_poteri
al_byluiu_populiarnosti_i_ego_reiting_upal_do_3.jpg

For PRESIDENCY
1991
1996(1)
1996(2)
2000
2004
2008
2012
YELTSYN
57,30
35,28
53,82
ZHIRINOVSKIY
7,81
5,70
2,70
9,35
6,22
ZUGANOV
32,03
40,31
29,24
17,72
17,18
YAVLINSKIY
7,34
5,80
PUTIN
52,99
71,31
63,60
MEDVEDEV
70,28
MIRONOV
0,75
3,85

2003-2006
§2004 - direct elections of region’s heads was abolished
§+ an obvious imposition on the heads of membership in UR
§totally proportional electoral system at the Federal level
§2005 – all-Russian voting day (2nd Sunday of March and September)
§from 5% to 7% exclusion threshold
§2006 - The line “against all” was abolished
§the party lost the right to nominate as a candidate a member of another party
§Out of faction – out of Deputy
§Early voting returns

Back direction – after 2012
§To 5 % exclusion threshold
§??? Or abolish it at all?
§To direct voting for heads of regions
§Since 2015 – mixed system
§??? “against all”
§???Elections blocks

PUTIN’s IMAGE
•Annual press-conference
Mass media
Twitter, Facebook …
TV, newspapers
not I am, but He is
•Annual “direct line”
•Direct translation of message to Federal Assembly
•News top

POLITICAL
SITUATION
in Russia

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§
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ABOVE POSITION
§
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-_3rHZMoMxuY/VAKUkRn93VI/AAAAAAAAaiU/ZCD7yTFeW5U/s1600/Vladimir%2BJirinovs
ky%2Bdiscursa%2Bsob%2Bo%2Bolhar%2Bsimp%C3%A1tico%2Bde%2BPutin.jpg

Case#2
§YOU ARE POPULAR
§35-64%
§THEY ARE NOT
§315/450
§2007 “Putin’s plan – Russia’s victory”
§
http://prokazan.ru/userfiles/picitem/img-20130612162958-516.jpg
2011
Логотип партии "Единая Россия".svg
THE PARTY
OF THIEVES AND RASCALS
http://sputniknews-uz.com/images/142/06/1420674.jpg
http://mger2020.ru/sites/default/files/medv_1.jpg

Case#2 Solution
§1
§
§2
§
http://radiovesti.ru/pics/b/648/2.jpg
238/450
Onf-logo.svg
all-russia people's front

§
http://demotivation.me/images/20111017/8tbw48trc3ik.jpg
THE PARTY
OF THIEVES AND RASCALS
front of scammers and crooks

§
http://ura.ru/images/news/upload/0_5a460_fb83079c_XL.jpg


Case#3
How to count?
§Methods of proportional mandat’s distribution:
§Hare-Niemeyer method (simple quotas)
§Hamilton’s method
§D'Hondt method (Jefferson's method)
§Droop quota
§
§
§ Imperiali quota
§
Ex: 2006 – UR got 38% and took qualified majority
\frac{\mbox{total} \; \mbox{votes}}{\mbox{total} \; \mbox{seats}} \left( \frac{\mbox{Total Valid
Poll}}{\left(\mbox{Seats}+1 \right)} \right) + 1

\frac{\mbox{total} \; \mbox{votes}}{\mbox{total} \; \mbox{seats}+2}

Case#3
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