Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at
http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=wplm20
Download by: [Masarykova Univerzita v Brne] Date: 13 January 2016, At: 02:31
Journal of Political Marketing
ISSN: 1537-7857 (Print) 1537-7865 (Online) Journal homepage: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/wplm20
Some New and Old Rules for 2016 Presidential
Campaigns
Rick Ridder
To cite this article: Rick Ridder (2015) Some New and Old Rules for 2016 Presidential
Campaigns, Journal of Political Marketing, 14:3, 223-228, DOI: 10.1080/15377857.2015.1061797
To link to this article: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15377857.2015.1061797
Accepted author version posted online: 18
Jun 2015.
Published online: 18 Jun 2015.
Submit your article to this journal
Article views: 178
View related articles
View Crossmark data
Some New and Old Rules for 2016
Presidential Campaigns
RICK RIDDER
RBI Strategies and Research, Denver, Colorado, USA
In this memo to 2016 U.S. presidential campaigns, political
consultant and former U.S. presidential campaign manager, Rick
Ridder, through a set of rules and recommendations, examines
the impact of resources, metrics, and mass customization on a
campaign’s messaging and strategy. In the context of a voter
and data-centric political environment, Ridder highlights the
application of old campaign adages to new age realities. Ridder
is a principle at RBI Strategies and Research, a Denver-based
political consulting firm, and he teaches as an adjunct professor
at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International
Studies.
KEYWORDS campaigns, candidate, messaging, politics, 2016
Phases and stages, circles and cycles, scenes that we’ve all seen before. Let me
tell you some more.1
To: 2016 Presidential Candidates
Fr: Rick Ridder
Re: Your Campaign
In the next few months you will be inundated with brilliant political
advice from campaign staff, consultants, bloggers, journalists, and family.
Let me further contribute to your woes by adding my voice to the cacophony.
These words are based on my involvement in eight presidential campaigns in
a senior position but also with an acknowledgement that the late campaign
wizard Joseph Napolitan was right: All campaigns are the same. All
campaigns are different.
Address correspondence to Rick Ridder, RBI Strategies and Research, 1900 Grant St.
#1170, Denver, CO 80203, USA. E-mail: Rick@rbistrategies.com
Journal of Political Marketing, 14:223–228, 2015
Copyright # Taylor & Francis Group, LLC
ISSN: 1537-7857 print=1537-7865 online
DOI: 10.1080/15377857.2015.1061797
223
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016
‘‘MONEYBALL’’ HAS COME TO YOUR CAMPAIGN
Today campaigns require the employment of metrics and the continual evaluation
of campaign tactics. It is the reliance on a kind of research encompassing
more than just polling, focus groups, and candidate and opposition research.
Central to modern campaigns is now the analytics team. They slice and dice
the electorate—and your supporters—into demographic morsels based on purchasing
patterns and lifestyles, all in an effort to make your campaign’s communications
more efficient and effective. The analytics team will test the impact of
your e-mail, text messages, and direct mail. Maybe they will even determine the
optimal distance the reception desk in your campaign headquarters should be
positioned from the front door (20 feet, according to one campaign study).
No longer should campaigns rely on the adage, ‘‘it worked last time, so
let’s do it again.’’ Now you need to allow the analytics and research experts to
help the campaign make more informed strategic decisions, from the subject
line of your latest fundraising e-mail to the number of get-out-the vote calls a
volunteer can be relied upon to make.
Republican candidates, be aware: One of your opponents in the
primaries, former Texas Governor Rick Perry, is particularly attuned to testing
tactics in campaigns. In one of his gubernatorial campaigns, he tested the
voter recall of his TV spots and found voters had little memory of his spots
4 days after the spots went off the air. So, they learned the lessons that a
message delivered early in a campaign must be consistently repeated (voters
don’t remember) and that once on TV, stay on TV.
REMEMBER, ALL POLITICS IS PERSONAL,
CUSTOMIZED, AND INTERACTIVE
As campaigns become more individual voter-centric and data allow for more
in-depth insight, communications increasingly have become highly personalized
and customized. Tip O’Neill’s adage that ‘‘all politics is local’’ no longer
applies.
How has politics gotten personal? As a candidate, you must communicate
not only that you understand an individual voter’s concerns but also that
you’re in touch with that particular voter’s specific values. This means that to
demonstrate that you are in tune with the concerns of the voters in a particular
state, you may have to forgo a Sunday morning national news program
for a bird hunting expedition in a rural area of a key state. That way, as a candidate
you show you are in touch with the target audience and understand
their concerns and even what they do as recreation.
How has politics become customized? Going beyond the merely personal,
a campaign will use all the data it has collected on individuals to communicate a
very customized message to that single voter. By acquiring an individual’s
224 R. Ridder
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016
computer IP address and purchasing behavior indicators from major commercial
data vendors, then matching the data to voter files, your campaign can now target
gun-owning hunters who have recently bought ammunition in a specific
rural area to inform them of the your position on the Second Amendment—
and tell that voter that you are bird hunting in that same neighborhood.
Why is politics now newly interactive? It is not sufficient for you to simply
communicate to voters. Campaigns must engage the voters and interact
with them. It is no longer a one-way conversation. Through e-mail, Twitter,
Facebook, YouTube, and text messaging, your campaign must fully connect
with the individual voter, in a two-way conversation—not only to garner that
vote but to request contributions, volunteers, and even attendance at rallies.
This engagement must be real. As consumers, voters are accustomed to
having an online chat with a customer service representative providing them
with a customized, interactive experience in real time. Your campaign should
keep in mind that these business interactions shape the expectations of voters.
So, perhaps, after your hunting expedition, you should hold a tele–town
hall to speak with and listen to the concerns of targeted voters about hunting
and Second Amendment rights.
AS YOU TARGET, DON’T FORGET THE MESSAGE
There is a tendency in this era of customization to have a message for every
voter. This leads to message disharmony, because your overarching theme is
lost in your attempts to specifically meet the needs and wants of an
individual. Without some consistency in messaging to the broad target
audience, your messaging loses its potency and effectiveness.
Democrats have a particular proclivity to put forth a message for every
voter. Their party comprises many interest groups with multiple agendas that
often prevent the development of an overarching message.
KEEP YOUR MESSAGING FOCUSED ON AN ACTUAL MESSAGE
A good message is not about: (a) endorsements, (b) how much money you
raised, (c) your consultants, (d) your team’s tactical expertise, (e) the expansive
nature of your ‘‘on-the-ground’’ organization, or even (f ) a specific issue
on which you are basing your campaign.
A good message communicates who and what you are fighting for and
includes the key components of your vision, direction (change or stay the
same), and the values you hold dear.
Jeb Bush will have great difficulty avoiding these messaging traps. To
some, he has to prove that he has the old Bush network supporting him,
but to others he must show that he is new and different from his brother
and father. Further, he has to demonstrate that he is a viable candidate
New and Old Rules for 2016 Presidential Campaigns 225
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016
because he has been out of public office for 8 years. This need to cross the
viability threshold will drive his desire to talk about the amount of money he
has raised, his consultants, and the number of supporters he has, to try to
gain credibility beyond his last name.
TOO MUCH MONEY CAN LEAD TO AN UNFOCUSED MESSAGE
Campaigns awash in cash are similar to start-up companies with too much
capital; they have a difficult time focusing on their unique selling point. In campaigns,
the influx of large amounts of cash often leads to a diffused message as
campaign operatives make use of the available funds to communicate very
broadly and with little coordination in the messaging and targets. In a sense,
they have the resources to be all things to all people; therefore they try and fail.
RUN FOR PUBLIC OFFICE, NOT TO BE THE
STANDARD BEARER OF A MOVEMENT
Movements don’t win campaigns. Candidates win campaigns. Your campaign
may start as a movement based on a single issue, but ultimately you must
make a transition to a candidacy that provides voters with an understanding
of your vision, accomplishments, and broader goals. In conjunction with the
communication of your electoral agenda, you must make it clear you are
running for a job with multiple responsibilities.
Democratic presidential campaigns are littered with ‘‘movement
candidates.’’ Eugene McCarthy, George McGovern, Fred Harris, Jerry Brown
in ‘92, and Howard Dean are among the notable recent aspirants whose
campaigns began as movements and who then had difficulty transitioning to
a plausible candidacy.
YOU MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTROL YOUR OWN MESSAGE
Despite all your efforts, outside forces, such as independent expenditures,
will come to support your campaign and probably communicate something
that in no way mirrors your message—or worse, misrepresents your position
on an issue. And, yes, there is very little you can do about it without potentially
violating some campaign finance law. This external noise amplifies the
importance of your own message discipline and repetition, lest your own
message be lost in the ruckus.
Recent U.S. Senate races have been the proving grounds for the intense
weaponry of independent expenditures. In 2014 in Colorado, over $105
million was spent on the U.S. Senate race, of which less than one-third was
226 R. Ridder
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016
spent by the candidate committees. Senate candidates had no control over
these independent expenditures or the messages that were communicated.
THINK SMALL FOR VOTES AND FOR MONEY
In the bifurcated electorate of national elections, small groups of voters in a
minimal number of states can be the difference between winning and losing.
Think through how to put together small blocs to compose large blocs.
Getting money from deep-pocketed individuals is attractive, but a large
donor base of small contributors gives your campaign greater latitude in
positioning on issues and strategy. When members of a small group finance
a campaign, that group will often try to dictate strategy and messaging. They
use their access to the candidate and campaign leadership to press their case
and imply that your failure to follow their brilliance will result in a curtailing
of financial support. These individuals will be far more difficult to
accommodate than 100,000 seemingly anonymous small donors.
The key to Obama’s success in the primaries and the general election of
2008 was his small donor support and his team’s ability to micro-target in the
swing states. In the primary season, the small donors gave him the foundation
to expand his campaign infrastructure beyond Iowa, New Hampshire, and
South Carolina. In the general election, he wasted little money in areas or
on demographic groups where he either was winning or losing significantly.
He narrowed his efforts to the important persuadable voting blocs.
IN A MULTI-CANDIDATE FIELD, USING NEGATIVE ADVERTISING
CAN HAVE UNINTENDED CONSEQUENCES
U.S. campaigns are generally fought between candidates of the two major
parties. But primaries—as well as foreign campaigns—frequently have
multi-candidate or multi-party contests. In such situations, negative advertising
put forth by your campaign may not accrue to your benefit. You may hurt
your intended target, but you may indeed hurt your own campaign, as your
target’s supporters flock to another adversary, not to you. This is often
referred to as a ‘‘murder-suicide’’ strategic outcome.
In the Iowa 2004 primary, the Dean and Gephardt campaigns
commenced a volley of negative ads directed at each other’s campaigns.
The beneficiaries: John Kerry and John Edwards.
DON’T UNDERESTIMATE BEING SECOND IN THE EARLY
CAUCUSES AND PRIMARIES
Mitt Romney won neither Iowa nor New Hampshire. Second place kept him
in the game through Super Tuesday, as he collected delegates. Some
New and Old Rules for 2016 Presidential Campaigns 227
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016
presidential campaigns aim only to win an early state and either do not have,
or are unwilling to commit, the resources for later states. Keep your eye on
the ball: delegates.
DEFINE YOUR VENUE AND REMEMBER THE CONTEXT
INCLUDING THE INTERNET
Are you playing to the crowd in the room or to the living rooms of those
watching on TV? Or both? Either way, don’t forget that anything you say,
no matter the venue, can and will be on the Internet in video form. If you
have any question about that, speak to M. Romney regarding a comment
about 47% of American voters.
THE GREAT CHALLENGE IS DEFINING HOW YOU WILL WIN
As every baseball manager knows, you can’t play in the World Series if you
don’t win the playoffs. On the other hand you can’t build a team for the
World Series that can’t win the playoffs.
The political translation of this is: Don’t build a candidacy that will win
the primaries but lose the general election. However, don’t position your
candidacy to win the general election but to lose the primaries.
This is the struggle Hillary Clinton will face every day from now until
November 2016, as she looks in the rearview mirror of 2008 where she
played for the general and ignored the primaries until it was too late. And,
perhaps, Jeb Bush faces the same challenge.
So, good luck. I hope this is helpful.
Oh, one more thing. Don’t forget to sleep. Many good candidates falter
because they did or said something stupid when they were really, really tired.
AUTHOR NOTE
Rick Ridder is a principle at RBI Strategies and Research, a Denver-based
political consulting firm. He holds an MS in Broadcasting from Boston
University and a BA from Middlebury College. He currently is an adjunct
professor at the University of Denver’s Josef Korbel School of International
Studies.
NOTE
1. ‘‘Phases and Stages (Theme)’’ Willie Nelson, 1974.
228 R. Ridder
Downloadedby[MasarykovaUniverzitavBrne]at02:3113January2016