Europe and the Issue of Competitiveness Europe in International Economy 2017 Industrial and Competitiveness Policy •ICP (contemporary definition): •is designed to improve country’s economic performance; •not to specify and enforce particular outcomes – rather to alter market processes by attacking the rigidities (which impede the market selection); •private sector flexibility is encouraged and adjustment to shocks is facilitated; • •Formerly (19th – 1980s): •attempt to lead the private sector through a planning procedure (picking the winners) – predicting emergence of sunrise (+ subsidizing sunset; post-indu.) sectors; • •Contemporary ICP: also providing industry with appropriate resources - educated and trained labor force + an appropriate research base and infrastructure. ICP in European Context • •1940s–1960s orthodoxy: government to correct market failures by microeconomic intervention in specific sectors; •1970s ICP aimed to create super-firms to compete with the US giants (EoS); •since 1980s: stressing the role or market forces (neoliberal-monetarist turn); •since 1990s – EU Commission´s view: •governments should promote adaptation to industrial change in open and competitive market; •firms and sector specific policies are treated with suspicion Vs. approves horizontal/general policies to support economic activity in general: •specific industrial policy (by states) constrained by EU rules on state aid (US, GER, FRA, JAP); •(microeconomic) policy is often contradictory – governments tend to simultaneously support sunrise and sunset industries; Instruments: •Traditional industrial policy: subsidies and tax breaks, channeling investments, protection from competition; •Contemporary: deregulation; reorientation of public services (education); subsidization of infrastructure and research; Industrial agglomerations •Information/ideas circulate informally within an agglomeration: •speeding up the process of product development; •technology spillovers are concentrated locally; • •Pull factors : •reducing costs for members of agglomeration = positive externalities based on production of specialized inputs (specialized labor, specialized services, shared consumers, shared infrastructure – e.g. universities, information flow); • •Agglomeration: •reduces cost by allowing firms to contract out all but their core activities – only efficient if the specialized suppliers can themselves operate on a large enough scale; •while agglomeration is large – most firms will be small (extremely specialized and operating on sufficient scale); • •EoS -> oligopolistic competition (non-price comp.), rents -> AGLO – NI (GOV role)! •Centripetal and centrifugal tendencies. 2014 Bill. USD (PPP) Percent of GDP (PPP) Spending per capita (PPP) South Korea 91.6 4.292% 1,518.47 Israel 11.2 4.109% 1,361.56 Japan 170.8 3.583% 1,344.31 Finland 7.0 3.174% 1,290.58 Sweden 14.2 3.161% 1,460.98 Denmark 7.6 3.051% 1,361.51 Taiwan 32.4 3.006% 1,383.84 Austria 10.9 3% 1,416.14 Switzerland 13.1 2.967% 1,647.90 Germany 106.5 2.842% 1,313.46 United States 473.4 2.742% 1,442.51 Belgium 11.9 2.465% 1,063.38 Slovenia 1.5 2.386% 712.63 France 58.4 2.256% 914.54 Australia 23.3 2.12% 986.86 China 344.7 2.046% 270.56 Singapore 8.7 2% 1,608.86 Czech Republic 6.3 1.997% 600.04 Netherlands 16 1.973% 946.25 European Union 334.3 1.94% 657.48 Iceland 0.27 1.891% 832.59 Norway 5.9 1.705% 1,145.18 United Kingdom 43.7 1.701% 677.44 Canada 25.7 1.612% 724.87 Ireland 3.6 1.519% 779 Estonia 0.53 1.432% 399.24 Hungary 3.4 1.371% 343.01 Italy 27.4 1.287% 452.14 Portugal 3.6 1.285% 347.84 Luxembourg 0.67 1.256% 1,226.35 Spain 19.2 1.222% 413.46 Russia 42.6 1.187% 290.21 General observations (neoliberal) •ICP should not target specific firms or sectors, but aim at improving the general functioning of markets; •difference between offering incentives to specific investor to invest into country and to make the country more likely to attract investment; • •It is not enough to demonstrate existence of market failure: •government action is costly and quickly becomes politicized and selective; •once supported by industrial policy (public) funds – sector grows beyond their market - determined size; •exercising political influence - enjoying political support (employment, GDP share); •industrial policies become path-dependent and self-perpetuating; Airbus: producing Airbus: not producing Boeing: producing B: -5 A: - 5 B: 100 A: 0 Boeing: not producing B: 0 A: 100 B: 0 A: 0 Industrial policy of EU – subsidy 25 Airbus: producing Airbus: not producing Boeing: producing B: -5 A: 20 B: 100 A: 0 Boeing: not producing B: 0 A: 125 B: 0 A: 0 Oligopolistic Competition in High-tech (150+ passengers airplane – example of natural monopoly) Boeign having head start Critique of competitiveness concept •Clinton (Tyson, Thurow 1992) – states as big corporations competing on world market (US vs. JAP); • •Krugman 1994 (De Grauwe 2010): –Corporations (almost) completely competing - selling vs. states produce (80%) for own citizens; –Rival corporations are consuming only fraction of their respective production vs. States are important consumers (of each others‘ products); –States: much important source of improvement in standard of living is productivity growth (not larger sales at someone‘s expense); they are mutual consumers (trade) and employers (FDIs)… Weaknesses of Europe (Eichengreen) •R&D spending + limited cooperation between industry and academia; •Small, new firms (tend to pioneer new niches, e.g. IT) – greater difficulties to cope with the complexity of European regulation; • •Europe: immigration-unfriendly policies (less attractive for H-T specialist form Asia); •Lower hiring and firing costs make it easier for US entrepreneurs to experiment with unproven technologies (…of great promise but uncertain commercial potential); • •European financial system – well suited to mobilizing saving and deploying it for investment by incumbent firms - does not go to the start-ups and small firms (engines of output and productivity growth); •IT producing sector is where US excels – but only 6% GDP – cannot explain differences in productivity trends: •US productivity advantage since 1990s centered in retail trade, wholesale trade, financial services – ICT using activities; • •Europe has faster productivity growth in telecommunications (privatization and uniform product standards); •Higher cost etc. computer hardware in Europe (localizing costs) – itself a barrier; 1970 1980 1990 2003 2014 EU 15 (2014: EU28) Overall employment 59 60 62 64 65 Employment male 80 78 74 73 70 Employment female 39 43 49 56 60 Employment 15–24 51 45 45 40 33 Employment 25–54 65 70 73 77 76 Employment 55–64 47 44 39 42 52 US Overall employment 64 67 72 71 67 Employment male 83 80 81 77 78 Employment female 46 55 64 66 62 Employment 15–24 53 59 60 54 48 Employment 25–54 70 74 80 79 84 Employment 55–64 60 54 54 60 61 Employment (%) EU: SWE 75% (AUT, UK, DEN, NETH, GER) vs. GRE 49% (SPA, ITA, CRO) Strengths of Europe •Europeans have grater amounts of leisure time (Vs. US, CH); •Higher level of earnings equality - more people with health insurance, infant mortality rates are lower, poverty rates are lower, rates of violent crime are lower; •Number of prisoners is only 128/100k vs. 716 in US (2013, 22% of world total); homicide (per 100k) 2,7 vs. 5,9; •Rigidities have not stood in the way of rapid export growth; •European exporters dominate in quality HVA, H-T; premium goods; precision manufactures; • •Moving into H-T and premium goods is potential source of insulation from high competition of EM: •Europe has not been subject to the kind of great financial scandals; 1950 1973 1998 UK 871 753 682 France 905 728 580 Germany 974 811 670 Italy 800 669 637 US 756 704 791 Worked hours per head (hours/year) 2003 2014 UK 1674 1677 France 1484 1473 Germany 1425 1371 Italy 1816 1734 US 1800 1789 Greece 2091 2042 Japan 1799 1729 China 2316 1913 1929 1938 1950 1973 2003 2014 Product per WORKER as a % of US level France 66 68 73 55 79 73 - Germany 69 59 82 41 72 64 - Italy 48 45 54 37 64 66 - UK 93 80 102 73 72 72 - EU15 (aver.) 57 55 66 47 65 72 - Product per HOUR as a % of US level France 56 - - 46 74 102 96 Germany 59 - - 32 79 98 94 Italy 42 - - 35 78 85 75 UK 84 - - 63 60 81 76 EU15 (aver.) 61 - - 44 71 - - Japan - - - - - 65 63 Output per head and hour of work (%) Lisbon Agenda •Lisbon European Council 2000: new strategic goal till 2010 – to become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion; • •Strategy aimed to: •transition to a knowledge-based economy by better policies for the information society and R&D; •structural reform for competitiveness and innovation and by completing the internal market; •modernize the European social model, investing in people and combating social exclusion; • •All-embracing - result of bargaining process + disagreement how economic performance should be improved; • •Open method of coordination: •Council agreeing guidelines that contains targets and recommendations which are adopted at the discretion of member states (intergovernmental process); •policy operates via reports – containing the policy, objectives and progress; •„enforcement“ is by recommendation, peer pressure and benchmarking; •no penalties – government implement policies in line with their own priorities; •EU continued to lag behind – also in amount of inputs used: slower population growth and rigid labor markets (late from school, less hours, early retirement + higher benefits and less part-time jobs); • •Lisbon is about everything and thus nothing (Kok’s Report 2004); •commitments are rhetorical (agreed at the height of the Dotcom boom); •states are committed only to parts of agenda; • •Mid-term review (2005): Barroso’s Commission’s plans – three priorities for the policy concentrating on growth and jobs (Revised Lisbon Agenda) : •more attractive place to invest and work – completing the Single Market and business-friendly regulation; •knowledge and innovation for growth: raising expenditure on R&D to 3% of GDP; •creating more and better jobs – increase employment by making the labor force more adaptable through raising the level of education and skills; • •Concerns that slimmer agenda downgraded the environmental and social aspects of agenda; Strategy Europe 2020 •Global crisis destroyed progress reached in last years (20 years of attempts for fiscal consolidation – in 2009 average fiscal deficit 7% and public debt 70%) + there have to be careful management of exit fiscal stimulus's; • •Goals: •intelligent growth –> economy based on knowledge and innovations; •sustainable growth –> support for more competitive and ecological economy less energy intensive; •growth supporting social inclusion; • •Targets - 2020: •Higher employment for 20-64 year old (from 69% to 75%); •Increase investment into RD up to 3% GDP EU (US 2,9% vs. EU 1,7%); •In energetic policy reach the goal 20-20-20 (less greenhouse gases, more renewable, more energy efficiency); •Share of tertiary educated from 31% to 40%; •25% less people living in poverty (from 20 mil.); Business dynamism Inovative capacity http://www3.weforum.org/docs/img/WEF_GCR2014-15_USAChina_Image.png http://reports.weforum.org/global-competitiveness-report-2014-2015/wp-content/blogs.dir/54/mp/image -cache/site/6/fig1-1.068d0755b969897fb3a8637aa70bf017.png