Grand Strategy Session One
Introduction to Grand Strategy
and Unit and Systemic Influences
20 March 2017
Professor Bradley A. Thayer, Ph.D.
Course: Grand Strategy
Department of International Relations and European Studies
Masaryk University
Spring 2017
Objectives
•  Introduction to grand strategy
•  Why is it important
•  Grand strategic options for the U.S.
•  Systemic Influences
•  Unit Level Influences
What is grand strategy?
•  How a state defines its
– Interests
•  Fundamental interests of the state
– the threats to those interests
•  Internal threats
•  External Threats
– The means to address threats
•  Diplomatic
•  Economic
•  Military
Interests
•  Essential Interests
– Protection from external and internal threats
– Economic growth
– Coherence of society, culture
– Spreading ideology, democracy?
•  Desirable Interests
– Environmental
– Humanitarian
Threats
•  External Threats
– Peer competitors, e.g. China
– Major state threats, e.g. Russia
– Nuclear proliferators, other WMD, e.g. Iran
– Terrorism
•  Internal Threats
– Terrorism
– Domestic Unrest
Means to address threats
• 
• 
• 
• 
Diplomatic (State Department)
Economy (Commerce and State Department)
Ideology (State Dept., Hollywood, popular culture)
Military
–  Airpower (Air Force)
–  Seapower (Navy)
–  Landpower (Army and Marines)
–  Covert Action/Forces (Special Operations Command-CIA)
–  Conventional vs. strategic forces (nuclear weapons, missile defense)
•  Intelligence Community
–  CIA-Central Intelligence Agency
–  DIA-Defense Intelligence Agency
–  NSA-National Security Agency, the biggest intelligence agency
–  NRO-National Reconnaissance Office
–  NGA-National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency
•  Allies (NATO)
Why Is Grand Strategy Important
•  Big Impact on International Politics—Makes War or
Peace More Likely
•  Fundamental Issues
–  What Motivates the United States to Act as It Does
–  With Whom Does U.S. Ally
–  When Does U.S. Fight Wars, Use Force, Intervene
–  How Much Force (Including Nuclear Weapons)
•  Big Impact on Your Life—Terrorism, Iraq, maybe Iran,
Possibility of Nuclear War with China
•  So, You May Not Be Interested in Grand Strategy but
Grand Strategy May Be Interested in You
Grand Strategic Options
•  Primacy
–  Emphasis on maximizing power, every area of the
world matters, and military commitments there
•  Selective Engagement (and Offshore Balancing)
–  Emphasis on sufficient power, only areas of economic
power matter, military commitments there (no
landpower commitment for offshore balancing)
•  Isolationism
–  Emphasis on power for physical security of U.S., no
military commitments
Levels of Analysis
•  The car crash—the driver (individual), the car
(state), or environment, road conditions (system)
•  First level of analysis—The individual
–  Psychological approaches, great men theories
•  Second level of analysis—The state
–  Attributes of states—ideology, economic system
•  Third level of analysis—The international system
–  The result of anarchy in international politics
State (Unit Level) Interests
•  Interests
– Security
– Debate over how to achieve security—power
sufficiency or power maximization
– Kenneth Waltz, defensive neorealism,
sufficiency, selective engagement
– John Mearsheimer, offensive neorealism,
maximization, hegemony, primacy
State Threats
•  Depends on Interests
– Fewest threats for isolationism—America
fundamentally secure
– Fewer threats for selective engagement—
America and Allies relatively easy to defend
– More threat for hegemony—interests are
universal, many threats, great concern for
credibility, e.g. Iraq, Vietnam
The Impact of the Int’l System	•  Big Impact on grand strategy
•  Anarchy causes the security dilemma
–  Under anarchy, the steps a state takes to make itself
secure (arming, alliances) cause other states to arm:
making all states armed but not secure
–  Influenced by geography (New Zealand) and military
technology (nuclear weapons)
•  Concern for security requires arming (creating
militaries, intelligence communities) and forging
alliances
•  Constant security competition and sometimes
war
System Causes Dominant State to
be Concerned over Rising Powers
•  The Theory of Hegemonic War
– 4 aspects: Hegemonic war, stability,
divergent growth rates, increased security
competition, hegemonic war
– Athens and Sparta, Rome and Carthage,
Germany and Russia, Britain and Germany
– U.S. and China
Systemic Problems of Alliances
•  The Abandonment Problem
–  Weaker state’s concern that the stronger will
abandon it
–  Poland, Georgia, today
•  The “Chain Gang” Problem
–  A state’s security depends on its ally
–  Germany, Austria-Hungary in World War One
•  The “Buck Passing” Problem
–  States want others to address the threat
–  France and Great Britain in World War Two
Unit Level Influences
•  Ideology
•  Culture/Strategic Culture
•  History
•  Economic System
•  Nationalism
•  Technology
•  Interest Groups
•  Military Effectiveness
•  Type of military power—Conventional or Strategic
(Nuclear, Biological or Chemical [NBC] Weapons, also
called Weapons of Mass Destruction [WMD])
Unit Level Influences:
Nuclear Weapons
•  Deterrence may be nuclear or conventional
•  Three theories of nuclear deterrence (1-mutual
assured destruction [Jervis], 2-counterforce
[Kahn], 3-manipulation of risk [Schelling])
•  Primacy requires counterforce capabilities
•  Nuclear deterrence
–  Secure second strike capabilities allow deterrence to
obtain
•  Nuclear forces
–  Survivable Triad
•  Nuclear command and control
–  Detection of attack, dissemination of orders, connectivity
•  Low risk of nuclear inadvertence
Nuclear Forces
•  Multiple delivery systems—Triad
– Intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs)
– Submarine launched ballistic missiles
(SLBMs)
– Bombers, cruise missiles
•  Accuracy vs. Survivability
•  Counterforce vs. Countervalue
•  New Triad—Triad plus defenses and
responsive infrastructure
Command and Control
•  Always/Never Dilemma
–  Nuclear must always be able to be used with proper
authority but never otherwise
•  Possibility of decapitation
–  Destroying the command and control system to
prevent ability to detect and respond to attack
•  To prevent decapitation, advanced detection
(BMEWS, DSP) and command (Looking Glass,
E-6 aircraft, ELF, much redundancy)
Safeguard against nuclear
inadvertence
•  Ensure always/never dilemma
•  Risks of stolen nuclear weapons, accidents,
and unauthorized launch
•  Environmental Safety Devices (ESDs)
•  Permissive Action Links (Pals)
Basic Neutron Reactions
•  Fission
–  the splitting of a nucleus into two parts (called fission products),
accompanied by the release of energy and neutrons
–  Fission fragments are intensely radioactive and tend to have
excess neutrons
–  Most neutrons are “prompt,” some are “delayed”	
92U235
n
36 Kr90
n
n
56 Ba143
n
Before: After:
* Fission
fragments
vary
Chain Reactions
•  Neutrons produced in the fission reaction can go
on to cause more fissions.
Chain Reactions -
Termination•  If the neutron escapes the system or is captured
by another process, the chain reaction terminates.
Chain Reactions - Branching
•  If more than one
neutron from each
fission goes on to
produce more fissions,
the chain reaction can
grow rapidly.
•  Delayed neutrons
make control of this
rate of branching
possible.
Chain Reactions
•  To maintain a critical state, must balance
neutron production with losses (from leakage
and capture)
–  To increase branching, limit termination
•  Remove materials that compete for the neutrons
•  Reflect escaping neutrons back into the system
•  Increase the density of the nuclear fuel
•  Increase the probability that the target material will capture
the neutron and then fission (e.g., use a moderator to slow
the neutrons down to energy where the fission cross
section is larger).
–  To limit branching, increase termination
•  Introduce materials that absorb neutrons
•  Arrange the system to allow more neutrons to escape to
Uranium
•  U-235 is the only naturally
occurring fissile isotope.
•  However, it is less than 1%
of naturally occurring
uranium.
•  U-238 competes with U-235
for neutrons, thus interfering
with the chain reaction.
–  enrichment separates
these isotopes to
increase the proportion of
U-235.
•  U-238 can absorb neutrons
to produce Pu-239, which is
also fissile.
99.28
0.72 0.01
U-238
U-235
U-234
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Energy (MeV)
Crosssection
(barns)
Total
Fission
Scattering
235U
Plutonium
1
0 92
238 239
92 0
0
92
239 239
93 −1
0
0
0 *
239
93
239
94 −1
0
0
0 *
n+ U→ U+ γ
U→ Np+ β
Np→ Pu+ β
+ ν
+ ν
•  U-238 absorbs a
neutron, becoming
U-239, which decays to
Pu-239.
•  When exposed to
neutrons, some of the
Pu-239 will fission and
some will absorb
neutrons to become
Pu-240, which presents
problems in a weapon.
•  Therefore, to obtain
relatively pure Pu-239,
one must limit time in
the reactor.
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5
Energy (MeV)
Crosssection(barns)
Total
Fission
Scattering
239Pu
Fission Nuclear Materials
- 2 Basic Choices
•  Uranium Enrichment
–  To get fissile U-235, must enrich natural uranium.
–  Because all isotopes of Uranium are chemically
identical, enrichment must utilize the slight mass
difference.
•  Plutonium Production & Reprocessing
–  Since all other fissile materials must be produced
through neutron absorption, they can only be found in
material previously irradiated in a reactor.
–  Reprocessing refers to chemical processing of
irradiated material, which is needed to extract the fissile
material.
Criticality
•  Sub critical - Net production of
neutrons is less than is needed
to sustain chain reaction
•  Super critical - Net production
of neutrons is more than
sufficient to sustain chain
reaction
•  Prompt Super Critical Production
of prompt neutrons
alone are more than sufficient to
sustain the chain reaction
(delayed neutrons are excess)
1 2
2
21
(and so on …)
3
3
3
3
Incident
neutron
•  Critical - Net of one neutron per
fission (prompt + delayed)
produces another fission (stable)
Incident
neutron
Incident
neutron
(and so on …)
1
2
3
4
235U or 239Pu nucleus
fission
neutron capture
Fission Weapon Concepts
Propellant
•  Gun Type
–  rapidly bringing
together two
subcritical masses to
achieve a prompt
supercritical mass
•  Implosion Type
–  compressing a
subcritical sphere of
special nuclear
material to form a
prompt supercritical
mass
Fusion
•  Process in which nuclei of lightweight elements
combine to form a more tightly bound nucleus
with the simultaneous release of energy
Fusion Fuels
•  Deuterium (H-2, “D”)
–  0.015% of naturally occurring Hydrogen
–  separable from water as D2O
•  Tritium (H-3, “T”)
–  produced by bombarding lithium with neutrons
–  half-life of 12.3 years
•  Energy produced per kg of fuel in “D”-”T”	
fusion is four times that of U-235 fission
+
-
+
-
2 3
1 1 2
4 1
0H+ H→ He+ n
Fusion Reactions
•  These reactions don’t take place simply by
mixing the ingredients together
–  The nuclei (not neutrons) must come together
–  Very strong electrostatic repulsion must be overcome
–  Thermonuclear reactions can be induced by
high density and high thermal energy, requiring
temperatures on the order of 100,000,000 °K(180,000,000 °F!)
+
+
- -
Fusion Weapon Concepts
•  A nuclear fission reaction is needed to produce
the necessary temperatures for nuclear fusion
to take place
•  X-rays from the fission reaction are used
to compress the secondary to cause
fusion before the primary disassembles
Primary Secondary