Session Three
U.S. Grand Strategy in the post-Cold
War World: The Case for Primacy
22 March 2017
1)  The Causes of Primacy
2)  The Logic of Primacy
3)  Its Benefits
4)  Diplomacy
5)  Military Power
6)  Intelligence Community
7)  The Costs of Primacy
Argument—Causation of Primacy
•  Systemic and unit level explanations are
necessary to explain the causes of U. S. primacy
•  Systemic: Geography and Neorealism
–  In anarchy, power creates security (Mearsheimer)
•  Unit level: Ideology critical as well, desire to
shape international politics along “American
lines”	
–  Jefferson “Empire of Liberty”	
–  Wilson “Make the World Safe for Democracy”	
–  Roosevelt “Atlantic Charter”	
Primacy
•  Interests
–  U.S. is Best Protected When It Dominates the World
–  U.S. Goals Are Best Advanced Through Preponderant Strength
•  Threats
–  The Rise of Peer Competitors like China
-- Great Powers like Russia
–  Second Order Powers: Iran and North Korea
–  Terrorism
–  Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)
–  Loss of U.S. Credibility
•  Means
–  Dominant Military
–  Large Intelligence Community
–  Strong Economy
–  Many Allies
Benefits of Primacy
•  Unsurpassed military power, intelligence
community provides robust deterrence
capabilities
•  Significant ability to compel states
– Libya, end of A.Q. Khan network
– but not omnipotence, e.g. Iran, North Korea
•  Control of the “global commons” oceans,
airspace, outer space (Posen)
Benefits of Primacy
•  Countries seek to ally with the U.S.
–  192 countries, 84 are allied with the U.S., 5 balancing
(China, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela)
against Washington
–  A ratio of about 17 to 1 (Cold War 1.8:1 in favor of
U.S.)
•  Stability
–  Many wars prevented
•  Great power wars
•  Small power wars, e.g. Greece v. Turkey, Egypt v. Israel,
India v. Pakistan
Benefits of Primacy
•  Reduced proliferation pressures due to extended
deterrent
•  In the right circumstances, democracy promotion
•  U.S. military power is the world’s “911
force” (world’s police, global paramedic,
and the planet’s fire department)	
–  October 2007 rescue of a North Korean ship from
pirates off of Somalia
Benefits of Primacy
•  Permits humanitarian operations
– December 2004 tsunami
– October 2005 earthquake in Kashmir
– November 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh
– 2011 Fukushima reactor meltdown
•  Stabilizes the global economy
– Promotes globalization
– International Trade Regime (WTO)
– International Monetary Regime (IMF)
– Economic Crises
Diplomacy: The State Dept.
•  Governing America’s Relations with the rest of
the World
•  The State Department
– Diplomacy—Key Mechanism to Advance and
Protect U.S. Interests, Diplomatic Signaling
– Works with Allies like Great Britain and Foes
like Iran, and Organizations like the UN
– About a $36 billion budget
Military Power: The Dept. of
Defense
•  Governs the Defense Policy of the United
States—deterrence, military signaling, war
•  Conventional Forces: Army, Navy, Air
Force, and Marines
•  Strategic (Nuclear) Systems (with Dept. of
Energy) and Missile Defense
•  About a $500 billion budget
U.S. Military Power
SECRETARY OF DEFENSE
Africa Command Northern Command
European Command Special Operations
Pacific Command Cyber Command
Southern Command Transportation Command
Central Command Strategic Command
U.S. Military Power
U.S. Defense Spending
U.S. Defense Spending
U.S. Defense Spending
U.S. Intelligence Community
•  Provides National Security Decision- Makers with
the Information They Need to Make and
Evaluate Decisions (e.g. Is the War against ISIL
Working?)
•  Provides Covert Action and Counterespionage
Capabilities
•  $75 billion budget
•  Led by Director of National Intelligence
U.S. Intelligence Community
•  Central Intelligence Agency
–  Human Intelligence (Humint), Open Source (Osint) and other
forms of intel, analysis, and counter- espionage outside the
United States
•  Defense Intelligence Agency (Pentagon’s CIA, Humint)
•  National Security Agency (Code Makers and Code Breakers—the
Largest Intelligence Agency By Far)
–  Communications Intelligence (Comint) and Electronic Intelligence
(Elint), Cybersecurity
•  FBI (Counter-espionage within the United States)
•  National Reconnaissance Office (Imagery Intelligence, Imgint,
aircraft or spy satellites)
•  National Geospatial Agency (Map Makers and Coordinates)
•  Each Service Has Intelligence Branch, and State, DHS, Energy,
Treasury, Drug Enforcement Administration
Selected Costs of Primacy
•  Costs (Costs of Leadership)
–  Requirement to Confront Peer Competitors like China
-- Requirement to Confront Great Powers like Russia
–  Requirement to Confront Second Order Powers: Iran and North
Korea
–  Can Generate Terrorist Reaction (al Qaeda’s attack on the “Far
Enemy”)
–  Must Stop Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction
–  Great Concern Over U.S. Credibility May Lead to Problems like
Vietnam
–  Global Criticism
-- Risks of extended deterrence
–  Risks of provoking counter-balancing
–  Risks of alliances: manipulation of the U.S., and the chain gang/
buck-passing problems