• Regional conflicts: US and South China Sea Luboš Přikryl & Tomáš Daněk What is it about? •South China sea presents very lucrative area •Oil reserves, gas reserves, fish populations, and viable trade routes •According to UN law, large part of the SCS is international waters •UN Maritime law declares international waters cant be claimed •China doesn‘t respect the 200 miles rule •China enforces historical 9 dash border (and with it resources of SCS) Obsah obrázku text Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti What is it about? •This puts China at odds with other actors in the region •Those actors are US allies or partners •China backs its claims with military buildup •Other regional powers uneasy •Some of these (South Korea, Japan) directly relies on US for defense Obsah obrázku osoba, vojenské, vojenská uniforma, interiér Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti Chinese Military buildup •South Chinese sea contains no real landmass •Only sandy archipelagos •„Little blue men“ •China is expanding these archipelagos •…and building military bases on them •This way, step by step, China annexes the SCS Obsah obrázku exteriér, voda Popis vygenerován s vysokou mírou spolehlivosti Countries at stake •Vietnam •Tai-wan •Phillipines •Brunei •Malayisia Obsah obrázku text, mapa Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti What is in stake for US? •US wants to uphold freedom of maritime navigation (SCS being vital naval trade route) •As such,US officialy backs UN Maritime Law •US backs Vietnam against China expansionism •Unspoken long term goal: Keeping its military dominance in Pacific • Unspoken long term goal: halt the chinese rise to the position of new global super power Obsah obrázku voda, exteriér, loďka, obloha Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti USA presence in Pacific – Japan and Korea •Japan is one of the key actors of the dispute, heavily reliant on shiping lanes and fish populations •What has the US to do with the Japan? •After the WWII, Japan was occupied by USA •Japan was demilitarized •USA made the vow to be responsible for Japan‘s safety •USA stationed troops in Japan •After the end of initial occupation, US and Japan begin to build new relations, and Japan became member of US sphere of influnece •Korean War •US brought sizeable force to theatre •War never officialy ended (cease fire) •As such, similar situation as with Japan The USA in Southeast Asia •Since WWII supporting Japan (others distristful) •„hub and spokes“ system (bilateral treaties since 1951) •Japan, South Korea, Philipines •Military alliance, economic support •Containment of Communism •Impossible multilateral solution (differences) •Vietnam war •1955 – 1975 •US withdrawal (1973) •ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) •1967 •Regional intergovernmental organization •Better relationships between SEA states (economy, politics, culture, military) •USA aproaches the states as a region • • • • • • • • Obsah obrázku exteriér, osoba, strom, obloha Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti The USA in Southeast Asia •Nixon doctrine 1969 (vietnamese syndrom) •Responsibility given to states •Economical, military support, but…. • •After cold war •„benign neglect“ aproach •Little attention, only when needed (security threats) •Wanted to have economical influence (not supporting East Asian Economic Group – EAEG) •9/11 •North Korea ballistic missile tests (93, 98) •Cooperation with Japan •100 000 soldiers in the region • • • • • • • • Obsah obrázku osoba, oblek, muž, vázanka Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti The USA in Southeast Asia •After 9/11 •Japan being the main partner •Economical and security areas •Lack of interrest •Absent at regional summits •Deeper integration •Cooperation with China •No interest on region building •2004 Tsunami •à rise of regionalism (ASEAN) •Since 2006 more interest X rising power of China • • • • • • • • Obsah obrázku hora, příroda, exteriér, obloha Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti South China Sea conflict •Oil, natural gas •Fishing (10 %) •Trade - Goods worth $5.3 trillion •Claims - China, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam •Interests – the USA, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia South China Sea The conflict •Lots of skirmishes •ASEAN states choose diplomatic solution •Battle of Paracel islands (1974) •After withdrawal of the USA •China X South Vietnam •1988 battle (China X Vietnam) •Since 1990‘s two sides of the conflict •China X Asean + USA (late 90‘s) •China slowly but surely gains influence • • • • • Obsah obrázku text, mapa Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti USA X China •Hainan Island incident (2001) •collision between a US spy plane and a Chinese fighter jet •No escalation •„Letter of the two sorries“ •USNS Impeccable (2009) •ocean surveillance ship •International waters •China ordered it to leave •US sending a guided-missile destroyer to protect the ship Obsah obrázku voda, loďka, exteriér, obloha Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti The US role in the conflict •Attention to the region in late 90‘s – oil (several explorations) •Fear of China‘s growing power •Main goals •status quo •Maritime freedom •Containment of China •2010 – Clinton – „USA are neutral and support multilateral solution“ •Tools •Supporting ASEAN states (2014 the Philippines) •The law (UNCLOS) •Patrolling the coast •Cold war? • • • • • • Obsah obrázku text Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti Implications •Even though the countries and UN objects, chinese takeover of SCS reached far •Diplomatic solutions doesnt seem to work •Most countires in the region dont have the might to stand against the China •As such, any strong stance on the issue, and possibly armed one, is up to US • Obsah obrázku text Popis vygenerován s vysokou mírou spolehlivosti To act or not to act? •Dangerous situation •If US lets China fully take SCS, economical loses •However, more importantly, big political defeat for US and possible breaking point •Acting is however very dangerous •US Navy has enormous military advantage though •Still, there is propably not enough political will to do so. Obsah obrázku exteriér, kouř, oheň, doprava Popis vygenerován s velmi vysokou mírou spolehlivosti Questions? Comments? • Výsledek obrázku pro discussion Sources • •BBC (2016): Why is the South China Sea contentious? [online] http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-pacific-13748349 •Beeson, M. (2009): East Asian Regionalism and the End of the Asia-Pacific: After American Hegemony. In: The Asia-Pacific Journal. •Cobus, P. (2017): Conflict and Diplomacy on the High Seas [online] https://projects.voanews.com/south-china-sea/ •Frost, E. (2004): Strategic Engagement or Benign Neglect? Current and Future U.S. Policy Responses to East Asian Regionalism. •Kotani, T. (2017): Trump’s World and the South China Sea. [online] https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/trumps-world-and-the-south-china-sea/ •Pham, P. (2017): What Is The United States Doing In The South China Sea? Forbes. [online] https://www.forbes.com/sites/peterpham/2017/12/15/what-is-the-united-states-doing-in-the-south-chin a-sea/#683e187b1a9e •Stashwick, S. (2017): Leveraging US Military Power in South China Sea [online] https://thediplomat.com/2017/08/leveraging-us-military-power-in-south-china-sea/ •The Washington Post (2018): China to U.S.: It’s your fault we are in the South China Sea. [online] https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/china-to-us-its-your-fault-we-are-in-the-south-china-sea/2018/ 01/22/1bc25b72-ff3e-11e7-93f5-53a3a47824e8_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.53f25403528e • • • •