America´s Changing Global Role Trade policy
Pavla Pitruchová, Tomáš Lalkovič, Michal Sojka
Faculty of social sciences                                  Masaryk university
                                          11.04.2018

Overview
•U.S trade politics to East Asia – Michal Sojka
•
•United States trade policy to Latin America´s states – Tomáš Lalkovič
•
•Trade balance of US – Pavla Pitruchová

U.S trade politics to South-East Asia
Michal Sojka
Image result for south east asia

Overview
•Past and evolution up to recent time
•Current development
•Possible future development
•How should U.S. act?

Past and evolution up to recent time
•False assumptions about Chinese economic development
–X continued market reform
–X opening its market
–U.S. did not anticipate China to become trade power so rapidly
•China: U.S.´s largest merchandise trading partner; third-largest export market; biggest source of
imports
•Globalisation: interconnected economies
–Sequential manufacturing processes
–Multidimensionality – beside merchandise trade also possible investments into trust companies,
financial leasing, auto finance and consumer finance
•

Current development
•Trump’s sharp reversal of the historical U.S. role in trade area
–Rejection of TPP - (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and renegiotation of KORUS - (U.S.-Korea Free Trade
Agreement)
•D.Trump´s interest to reach bilanced deficit
•Trade policy:
–Negotiating Better Trade Deals
–Aggressive Enforcement of U.S. Trade Laws
–Reforming the Multilateral Trading System: China described as a marked distorting country
–Main principle: America first, but expressing willingness to cooperate with like-minded countries
in order to build an prosperious global economic system
•Risks of bicameral agrements – e.g. Indonesian pal oil, decrease of U.S. working places
•

Possible future development
•D. Trump´s trade policy effects to:
– U.S. economy -) societal response:
–Positive: societal support for such approach -) possible re-election -) continuity -) creating
functioning ,,new normal“ or semi-anarchy
–Negative: societal upport dependent on interpretation -) possible re-election or D.T. leave -) any
option J
–East-Asian trade architecture -) implications for E-A trade relations:
–China and its neighbours: Japan, Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia etc.
–Long-term horizon: advantage, or disadvantage for EU, Russia etc.? -) declining or strengthening
position of U.S. in the region

How should U.S. act?
•According to an aim – whether would (or should) be relevant ,,America first“ approach or extended
,,U.S. National interest“
–If „America First“ approach: to ensure stable, strong and beneficial position in the E-A trade
area -) either diplomacy (consensus) or power
–If power = no leadership
–If extended ,,U.S. National interest“: leadership based on generally-beneficial values BUT fixing
current issues and preventing others
•Depends on position of three combining dimensions: altruism-egoism, rationality-irationality and
limited A1.– enlightened A1.

Sources:
•https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-boao-pboc/china-pledges-to-allow-more-foreign-investment-
in-financial-sector-by-year-end-idUSKBN1HI074?utm_campaign=trueAnthem%3A+Trending+Content&utm_conte
nt=5acda5a204d3015525bc5c88&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=facebook
•https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Reports/2018/AR/2018%20Annual%20Report%20I.pdf
•http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/05/will-global-trade-survive-2018/
•https://www.everycrsreport.com/reports/RL33536.html
•https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-china-trade-deficit-causes-effects-and-solutions-3306277
•https://www.thebalance.com/u-s-trade-deficit-causes-effects-trade-partners-3306276
•

United States trade policy to Latin America´s states
Tomáš Lalkovič


Overview
•The Past
•
•The Present
•
•Trends
•
•Solutions
•
•

Historical Role of the U.S.
•Primacy of the U.S. since 1820s
•The Big Brother policy 1880s
•
•Bilateral and plurilateral free trade agreements (FTAs)
–NAFTA, CAFTA-DR, TPP and others
–
•Global value chains
–
•

Trade with Latin America
•The fastest growing partner (2014)
–Mexico, Brazil
–
•U.S. trade deficit
–Imports crude oil, semi-finished products, raw materials
–Exports final products (petroleum, electronics...)
–
•Intra-regional trade relatively low
–U.S. role?
•
•
•

Current Developments
•Trump
–Withdrawal from TPP (NAFTA?)
–LAC countries uncertain about their FTAs
–Search for new partners
mexico tweet.png

•
•Competition with China
–U.S. trade still larger, China catching up
–
–Chinese president on tour days after Trump’s election
–
–Infrastructure, energy, defense projects
–
–Nicaraguan canal
–
•
•

Hydroelectric dam ecuador, highways in chile, jet fighters argentina, nuclear plants, PLA satellite
tracking centre

Future of U.S. Policy
•U.S. withdrawal from important trade deals
–China fills the vacuum - Security threat?
–Economic influence = political
•
•U.S. leadership
–Unification, liberalization
–Region-wide FTAs
–Friendly, open policy
–Isolate China

Sources
•http://www20.iadb.org/intal/catalogo/PE/2014/13718.pdf
•https://www.latlegal.com/2017/02/u-s-and-latin-america-trade-who-could-be-affected-by-a-shift-in-u
-s-trade-policies/
•https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/.../CR/.../cr1766-ap-5.ashx
•https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/17/donald-trumps-trade-policy-driving-latin-america-china
s-arms/
•https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/reports-and-publications/2018/2018-trade-pol
icy-agenda-and-2017

Trade balance of US
Pavla Pitruchová


-goal of trade politics was : reduce difference between import and export
-strenghtening home economy
-applied globaly
-side damages
-neccesarry effect on EU, although EU region is not main reason

US-EU: EU view
•“The European Union and the United States have the largest bilateral trade and investment
relationship and enjoy the most integrated economic relationship in the world.”
• (European Committee)

Us-EU: US view
•


Import Export Balance
In Goods  - millions of dollar
•
Years
Exports
Imports
Balance
2017
283,517.4
434,933.1
-151,415.6
2016
269,616.6
416,376.9
-146,760.3
2015
271,879.5
427,536.7
-155,657.3
2014
276,274.4
420,608.8
-144,334.4
2013
262,095.3
387,510.4
-125,415.0
2012
265,372.5
381,755.4
-116,382.9
2011
269,068.7
368,463.9
-99,395.2
2010
239,591.0
319,263.8
-79,672.9
(2018)
48,235.0
73,898.6
-25,663.6

-without important changes in balance
-slowly growing trends
-US- EU trade like more diplomatic than economic issue
-Is it possible to win trade war? Peartnership vs. Business
•
-both positions aren’t equal
-importance of import for US
-Eu profit, but dependency is obvious
•

Obama
•American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
-primary objective was to save existing jobs and create new ones as soon as possible
-“Buy American” again
-idea 1933, Hoover
•
-crisis was global, not only US problems

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership
•TTIP
-““The EU and the US would like to inform the WTO Secretariat that on 8 july 2013 we started the
negotiations for the EU-US Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). “
-2016 : “Obama says EU and U.S. must move forward with TTIP”
-2018: under negotiations...
•
-first priority is protection US economic, then relations with EU
•

Trump
-duty, import restriction, trade barriers (steel 25% and 10% aluminium)
-"Today I'm defending America's national security by placing tariffs on foreign imports of steel
and aluminium," he said in the White House on Thursday (8 March) surrounded by US steel workers.
-before 23 March exception
-negative effect on both (economic laws work under expectations, home production is expensive)
-EU is close ally
-risk of losing strategic industry (EU- Germany, Italy, Sweden)

•Protection of domestic market vs. benefits of free market?
•Support home production vs. partnership and cooperation?
•“YES”

What should be?
-Succesfull finishing of treaty
-Leave ad hoc negotiations with EU, find long term partnership
-Support US-EU Transatlantic trade area (and its importance) with bigger obligation than just
speaches.
•Why?
•-Trade wars doesn’t work, it isn’t possible be a winner
•- EU import is important, not threatening
•- It is useful to have a partner (in competition with China)

Sources
•http://rtais.wto.org/UI/PublicShowMemberRTAIDCard.aspx?rtaid=865
•https://roklen24.cz/a/SmgNh/trump-se-myli-obchodni-valky-nelze-vyhrat
•http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/united-states/
•https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c0003.html
•http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2011/december/tradoc_148391.pdf
•https://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/usa/#Trade_Balance
•http://www.businessinfo.cz/cs/clanky/eu-ziskala-docasnou-vyjimku-z-cel-usa-na-dovoz-105210.html
•https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-usa-trade/merkel-obama-say-eu-u-s-free-trade-deal-would-
benefit-both-sides-idUSKCN0XK09Q
•https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-germany-obama-trade/obama-says-eu-and-u-s-must-move-forward
-with-ttip-idUSKCN0XL0O7
•
•https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-slams-eu-trade/
•https://euobserver.com/economic/141261
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Thank´s for your attention
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