America’s Changing Global Role *Climate change-Case Study Pavel Šaradín, Vojta Kyselý, Anna Mezhenskaya, Camilla Kelényová Image result for NASA Climate change: How do we know? According to 1.The Rise of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide *Atmospheric CO2 has increased since the Industrial Revolution 2.Global temperature rise •Average surface temperature has risen about 1.1 degrees Celsius since the late 19th century •A change caused largely by increased carbon dioxide and other human-made emissions into the atmosphere. • Most of the warming occurred in the past 35 years 3.Shrinking ice sheets •Greenland lost 150 to 250 cubic kilometers of ice per year between 2002-2006 •Antarctica lost about 152 cubic kilometers of ice between 2002-2005. Image:National Geographic +We know because of: •Warming Oceans •Glacial retreat •Decreased snow cover •Sea level rise •Declining Arctic sea ice •Extreme events •Ocean acidification Related image Image:Green Living Image:www.epa.gov Pie chart that shows different types of gases. 82% from carbon dioxide fossil fuel use, deforestation, decay of biomass, etc., 10% from methane, 5% from nitrous oxide and 3% from fluorinated gases. Image:www.epa.gov : ,,Larger emissions of greenhouse gases lead to higher concentrations in the atmosphere.’’ Image result for NASA Fossil fuel/Coal power-plants •Produces large amounts of different pollutants which reduces air quality and contributes to climate change •Require enormous amounts of coal •The largest producers of electricity around the world http://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Power_plant http://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Power_plant *2015, U.S. electricity is generated using fossil fuels- Coal 34,2% Green energy/Renewable energy power plants •Renewable energy sources provide less than 17% of U.S. electricity (2016) •Hydroelectric facilities (7%) •Wind turbines(6%) •Solar panels (1%) •Biomass(2%) •Geothermal power (less than1%) Image result . •The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change agreement •Goal- reduction of greenhouse gas emissions •Starting in the year 2020 •Each country plans and determines its own contribution that it should make in order to reduce/slow down global warming •Includes NO force mechanism •President Donald Trump decided to withdraw the United States from the agreement References: •http://energyeducation.ca/encyclopedia/Power_plant#cite_note-2 •https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=electricity_in_the_united_states •https://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ •http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/b/bb/Gundremmingen_Nuclear_Power_Plant.jpg •https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/4/4d/Fermi_NPP.jpg •https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/8/8b/GreenMountainWindFarm_Fluvanna_2004.jpg •https://treaties.un.org/pages/ViewDetails.aspx?src=TREATY&mtdsg_no=XXVII-7-d&chapter=27&clang=_en •https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/blog/2016/04/parisagreementsingatures/ •https://www.researchgate.net/post/Do_your_place_is_affected_through_climate_change_how_it_is_affec ted •https://greenliving.lovetoknow.com/Ways_to_Stop_Global_Warming Climate change and other phenomena I -Securitisation of climate change Environmental security (Buzan and Copenhagen school) -Apocalyptic visions(?) - interconnection(?) Environmental degradation Economic decline & migration Resource scarcity (not just water) Weak & failing/failed states (esp. Africa, Near East) Armed conflicts (esp. civil wars & spillover) Image: Alex Randall Climate change and other phenomena II ●New (indirect) source of instability and/or conflict ●Correlation, or (suggested) causality? 23% of armed conflicts in ethnically divided places were linked to climate disasters Images: O’Loughlin - Linke - Witmerb Climate change and other phenomena III ●Lack of reliable data, evidence, and consensus ●Elusive connection, not yet truly proven Keep watching, studying, and proving... References: ●Carrington, D. (2016): Disasters linked to climate can increase risk of armed conflict. Available at https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jul/25/disasters-linked-to-climate-can-increase-risk-o f-armed-conflict ●Mobjörk, M. - Eriksson, M. - Carlsen, H. (2010): On Connecting Climate Change with Security and Armed Conflict: Investigating knowledge from the scientific community. FOI, Swedish Defence Research Agency. ISSN 1650-1942. ●O’Loughlin, J. - Linke, A. M. - Witmerb, F. D. W. (2014): Effects of temperature and precipitation variability on the risk of violence in sub-Saharan Africa, 1980–2012. Available at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4250158/ ●Theisen, O. M. - Gleditsch, N. P. - Buhaug, H. (2013): Is climate change a driver of armed conflict? Climatic Change, April 2013, vol. 117, iss. 3, pp. 613-625. ●The Economist (2010): Climate wars. Available at https://www.economist.com/node/16539538 ●http://climatemigration.org.uk/infographic-exploring-evidence-for-the-climate-change-and-conflict- connection-2/ George W. Bush •In March 2001, the Bush Administration announced that it would not implement the Kyoto Protocol •In February 2002, Bush announced his alternative to the Kyoto Protocol, by bringing forth a plan to reduce the intensity of greenhouse gasses by 18 percent over 10 years. •Bush's do-nothing policy on global warming began almost as soon as he took office. By pursuing a carefully orchestrated policy of delay, the White House blocked even the most modest reforms and replaced them with token investments in futuristic solutions like hydrogen cars. „They have a single-minded determination to do nothing—while making it look like they are doing something.“ •Political pressure on scientists https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/175796.Hell_and_High_Water Barack Obama •New Energy for America • the White House Office of Energy and Climate Change Policy •Obama administration added climate to list of threats to US interests •The Clean Power Plan “The time for denial, delay and dispute is over.... We can only meet the climate challenge with a response that is genuinely global. We will need to engage in vigorous, dramatic diplomacy.„ if the international community would not act swiftly to deal with climate change that "we risk consigning future generations to an irreversible catastrophe...The security and stability of each nation and all peoples—our prosperity, our health, and our safety—are in jeopardy, and the time we have to reverse this tide is running out.„ •transition from oil to alternative sources of energy military security>envinronmental security 28x www.solarsunwerx.com.au Donald Trump •D. Trump drops climate change from US national security strategy •“Climate change is not identified as a national security threat but climate and the importance of the environment and environmental stewardship are discussed.” (James Mattis) •2016 withdrawing the U.S. from the Paris agreement: “I was elected to represent the citizens of Pittsburgh, not Paris” •cutting about 31% of the EPA as a result of budget decreases. •People's Climate Movement, March 2017 Literature •https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/dec/18/trump-drop-climate-change-national-security-strate gy •https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/feb/01/its-not-okay-how -clueless-donald-trump-is-about-climate-change •https://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/27/politics/trump-climate-change-executive-order/index.html •https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/oct/08/climate-change-defense-spending-fighter-plan e-climate-change-defense-spending-fighter-plane-program •http://www.planetexperts.com/republicans-democrats-differ-climate-environment-policies/ •https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/04/us/politics/trump-paris-accord-bush-kyoto.html •http://www.solarsunwerx.com.au/latest-news/obama-double-climate-change https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/175796.Hell_and_High_Water Dangers of climate change -Direct impact on agricultural production -Direct impact on sea levels -Some places will become uninhabitable -Huge waves of migration -Problem even for the richest states -Choices made today are very important What should the US do? -Institution, projects, think-tanks (American Security Project, The Center for Climate and Security) -Should be priority of NSS again -Global and long-term threats will require collective action -Fun fact: 2009 Trump supported action on climate change Important role of the US army? -Lieven (2017): the US army is the only force that can beat climate change -Militaries have the capacity to mobilize resources on the scale required -They can make link between the threat of climate change and patriotic duty to convince “ordinary people” Important role of the US army? Literature -http://foreignpolicy.com/2018/01/09/the-only-force-that-can-beat-climate-change-is-the-u-s-army/ -https://eos.org/features/how-will-climate-change-affect-the-united-states-in-decades-to-come -https://www.theverge.com/2017/8/9/16116198/climate-change-report-extreme-weather-co2-donald-trump -https://www.ecowatch.com/military-largest-polluter-2408760609.html -https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/06/09/in-2009-donald-trump-endorsed-action-on- climate-change-three-months-later-he-disparaged-it/?utm_term=.416c3b48cb39 -U.S. National Intelligence Council, Global Trends: Paradox of Progress (2017)