German energy transition - Energiewende
Filip Černoch
cernoch@mail.muni.cz
Energy policy of the EU
Origins of EW
1st pillar: nuclear phase-out
• Long and successfull tradition of nuclear industry in Germany – in 70s 17
000MW.
• German anti-nuclear movement – Ausserparlamentarishe Opposition in 60s
(leftist students), environmental movements, local oposition.
• Three Mile Island in 1979, Chernobyl in 1986.
• 1998 Greens in federal govt (with SPD) – Germany´s plan to gradually
withdraw from the atom.
• In 2010 the Atomic Energy Act amended – plant lifespan extended,
production limits on nuclear electricity increased.
• 2011 Fukushima – phase-out by 2022.
Origins of EW
2nd pillar: climate protection measures
• In 70s anti-nuclear sentiment, environmental consciousness and oil crisis
raised the issue of RES.
• 1974 first RES subsidy program – PV parks. Furthered in 1977 – 25% of
investment costs reimbursed.
• 1990 – Act on the Supply of Electricity from RES into the Grid (StrEG)
• 2005 – Merkel´s great coalition (CDU/CSU + SPD) – ambitious climate
plans, incl. RES and energy efficiency.
• 2010 – Energy Concept for an Environmentally Sound, Reliable and
Affordable Energy Supply ->Energiewende
Targets of the EW
Target/Year 2015* 2020 2030 2040 2050
Decrease in GHG emissions (compared to 1990
levels) 27.2%
40%
+
55%
+
70%
+
80%
+
Share of RES in gross final energy consumption 14.9% 18% 30% 45% 60%
Share of RES in gross electricity consumption
31.6%
35%
+
50%
+
65%
+
80%
+
Decrease in primary energy consumption (~2008) 7.6% 20% - - 50%
Increase in final energy productivity (per year) 1.3% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Decrease in gross electricity consumption
(~2008) 4.0% 10% - - 25%
Decrease in primary energy consumption in
buildings (~2008) 15.9% - - - 80%
Decrease in final energy consumption in
transportation (~2008) 1.3% 10% 40%
Declared benefits of the Energiewende
Performance of German energy sector
Gross power production in Germany 1990 –
2016 by source, in TWh
Share of energy sources in gross power
production in 2016 (preliminary data)
Net power consumption by consumer group
2000 - 2015
Major challenges
1) Costs of EW
• €550 bn. until 2050 (yearly investments €15bn., or 0,5% of GDP
respectively)
• Costs of Atomausstieg
• RES surcharges
• Grid investments and management
• Additional activities
• Wholesale prices of electricity among the lowest in the EU (this
reinforces the competitiveness of industry)
• Households pay one of the highest prices in the EU (regulated
component of prices)
• Cost unevenly distributed. Paid mainly by households, companies
exempted to some extent.
EEG surcharge in c/kWh
Electricity prices: medium-sized households
and medium-sized industries (€/kWh)
2) Coal consumption and CO₂ emissions
• Increasing of the proportion of hard (from 117 TWh to 121,7
TWh between 2010-2013) and brown (from 145,9 TWh to
160,9 TWh) coal in elektricity production
• Emissions of CO2 has been flat/increasing slowly
Greenhouse gas emission trends in Germany
by sector 1990 - 2016
3) Public support of EW
• 8 out of 10 german citizens support faster growth of RES
• Resentments about perceived gap between ambitious targets
and rhetoric and reality
• Less than half of public with positive attitude toward
implementation of EW
• Politics identified as reason for deficits in implementation
3) Public support of EW
Average power price in c/kWh for a household using
3,500 kWh per year (997 euro/year)
4) Grid capacity
Grid is not fit to accomodate 1 500 000 PV units and
23 000 wind turbines
Building of the grid
In 2010 plan to build 1887km by 2015, in Q3 only 23%
finished
5) Restructuralisation of energy production
1) Extensive development of RES at the expense of
traditional source. The resulting proportion of these
two productive segments will be based on:
• Almost zero variable (fuel) costs.
• Financial support of RES paid by the end user within regulated
part of the bill.
• Expenses associated with maintaining balance and stability of
network.
2) In present, the costs on support of RES and function
of networks exceed the savings from lower commodity
prices (= higher costs for society). But competitivenes
of RES have been changing.
Solar + wind production in Germany in week
20 2015
4) Restructuralisation of energy production
Source: BMWi, Green paper
Impact of EW on the Czech Republic
Trading with electricity – price convergence
• Price volatility
• Wholesale price of electricity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Q1 and
Q2/2014
Q3/2014 Q4/2014 Q1/2015 Q2/2015 Q3/2015 Q4/2015 Q1/2016
Germany
The Czech Republic
Impact on Czech producers
•Producers face reduced revenues. (EBITDA of ČEZ
decreased from €3,5 bn. in 2009 to €2,5 bn. in 2015,
EW one of the reasons).
•Low variable cost generation portfolio (nuclear, hydro)
– still profitable company.
•88 % of electricity generated from low-merit or midmerit
sources (coal 50 %, nuclear 30 %, hydro 5,5 %).
Impact on Czech consumers
• Profit from Energiewende – import of cheaper electricity.
Impact on government
•Nuclear energy as a baseload source of energy
questioned.
•Nuclear is planned to replace decommissioning of 14
GW (out of 24 GW total) in 2030.
Trades and flow of electricity 2014/2015
Sources
• BMWi (2015): Making a success of the energy transition.
• Clean Energy Wire
• Černoch et.al.(2017): Energiewende and the Energy Security of the
Czech Republic and Poland