An Example Shale Oil Field Sensitivities 1 0% Base Results Oil Price 1 2 +15% High NPV 146 US$mm Production 1 3 +30% Upside IRR #ČÍSLO! % Operating Costs & Transport 1 4 -15% Low Capex 1 5 -30% Downside 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Revenues 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 0 0 Operating Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Taxes 0 0 -9 -3 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 EBITDA 0 0 56 20 12 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 0 0 Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 0 0 56 20 12 9 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 0 0 Tax on EBIT 0 0 -11.2545 -3.939075 -2.363445 -1.77258375 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 Corporate Tax Rate 20% Post tax cashflow 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 CAPEX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free Cashflow (FCF) 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 Cumulative FCF 0 0 45 61 70 77 83 88 93 98 102 107 111 116 120 124 128 132 135 139 142 146 146 146 Discount Rate 0.0% Discount Factor 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Discounted Cashflow (DCF) 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 NPV ($mm) 146 IRR (%) #ČÍSLO! Payback (years) When does cumulative cashflow turn positive Excel Calculation $82 Breakeven Oil Price Calculation 60.00 After Goal Seek Function in Data:What If Alternative NPV (terminal value) FCF for 10 years 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 Terminal Value 40 Implied FCF 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 40 Implied DCF 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 40 NPV 142 Plus Cash 0 Less Debt 0 Total NPV 142 IRR #ČÍSLO! EBITDA Multiple 7 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Lifting Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Taxes 0 0 9 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Corporate Tax 0 0 11 4 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Free Cashflow 0 0 45 16 9 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 0 0 Capex 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### Revenue Calculation Export % Oil 45% Gas 20% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Oil Production 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Domestic Sales 0.0 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Export Sales 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Domestic Oil Price 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 Export Oil Price 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Domestic Revenue 0 0 25 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 Export Revenue 0 0 41 14 9 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 0 0 Total Oil Revenue 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 0 0 Gas Production 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic Gas Price 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Export Gas Price 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Domestic Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Export Sales 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Domestic Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Export Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Gas Revenue 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Revenues 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 0 0 Oil Production Scenarios 1 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 1.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 +15% 3 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 +30% 4 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -15% 5 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -30% Gas Production Scenarios 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +15% 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +30% 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -15% 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -30% Export Oil Price Base Case 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 Scenario 2 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 69.0 Scenario 3 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 78.0 Scenario 4 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 51.0 Scenario 5 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 Domestic Oil Price Base Case 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 Scenario 2 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 34.5 Scenario 3 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 39.0 Scenario 4 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 25.5 Scenario 5 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 Domestic Gas Price Base Case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Export Gas Price Base Case 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Scenario 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ##### Sheet/List 3 ##### Production Oil Gas Total mmbbls kbpd Bcf mmcfd Resources 100 Recovery Factor 5% Reserves 5 0 5 Start date 5 years after first capex Peak as % Reserves 5 years after first capex Peak Production (mmbbls) 1.5 4 30% 0 0 Time to Peak (yrs) 0 4 Length of Peak (yrs) 0 0 Decline rate (%) 65% 40% 25% 25% 3% 65% First capex 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Oil production 1.50 0.53 0.32 0.24 0.18 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.15 0.15 0.14 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.11 Total oil produced to 2040 4.9 Barrels per day 0 4110 1438 863 647 485 471 457 443 430 417 404 392 380 369 358 347 337 327 317 307 0 0 Gas Production 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total gas produced to 2040 0.0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Oil Production (mmbbls) 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Gas Production (mmboe) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (mmboe) 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 Production Scenarios Total Produced Oil Production Scenarios 1 4.85 2 5.58 3 6.31 4 4.13 5 3.40 Gas Production Scenarios 1 0.00 2 0.00 3 0.00 4 0.00 5 0.00 ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### Capital Expenditure Reserves 5 Capex per bbl 0.00 Total capex 0 Year 1 75% 0 Years 2-5 20% 0 Remainder 5% 0 First Capex First Oil Peak Oil 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 US$mm Before first oil 0 First oil to peak 0 Maintenance 0 Total 0 Sensitivities 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 +15% +30% -15% -30% Field Comparisons Cost /bbl Capex Reserves Peak Prod Peak Prod Capex/ peak bbl US$/bbl US$mm mmbbls kbpd mmbbls US$/bbl Kashagan ( Kazakhstan) 10.46 136000 13000 1500 547.5 248 ACG (Azerbaijan) 4.00 20000 5000 620 226.3 88 Thunderhorse (Gulf of Mexico) 5.00 5000 1000 250 91.25 55 Novy Port (Russia onshore) 3.25 4500 1385 161 58.64 77 Ghawar (Saudi) 3.50 248500 71000 5000 1825 136 Lula (Brazil deep water) 9.04 75000 8300 500 182.5 411 Global Comparisons Capex US$/bbl Saudi Arabia 3.50 Iran 4.48 Iraq 5.03 Russia 5.10 Venezuela 6.66 US shale 7.56 Indonesia 7.65 US conv 7.70 Canada 9.69 Nigeria 13.10 Norway 13.76 Brazil 16.09 UK 22.67 ##### Sheet/List 5 ##### Depreciation Straight Line Total Capex 0 Years of Production 20 Annual Depreciation (US$mm) 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Production 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Total 0 Unit of Production Total Reserves Total Produced Total Capex Depreciation per barrel 0.00 #DĚLENÍ_NULOU! 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total 0 ##### Sheet/List 6 ##### Operating Costs Lifting Costs 3 US$/boe real Total for model 15 US$mm 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 US$mm Total 0 Sensitivities 1 3 2 +15% 3 +30% 4 -15% 5 -30% Global Comparisons Lifting Costs Transport Lifting Transport US$/bbl US$/bbl Iran 1.94 Saudi Arabia 2.49 Iraq 2.16 Iran 2.67 Russia 2.98 Iraq 2.47 Saudi Arabia 3.00 Russia 2.69 Norway 4.24 Indonesia 3.63 US conv 5.15 US conv 3.11 US shale 5.85 Norway 3.12 Indonesia 6.87 US shale 3.52 Venezuela 7.94 Canada 2.92 Nigeria 8.81 Venezuela 2.54 Brazil 9.45 Nigeria 2.97 Canada 11.56 Brazil 2.80 UK 17.36 UK 4.30 Company examples Rosneft 3.10 Lukoil 4.26 BP 6.90 Chesapeake 2.92 Transport Costs Oil 0.00 US$/bbl Gas 0.00 US$/mcf 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Oil (US$mm) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Gas (US$mm) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total (US$mm) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sensitivities 1 0.00 2 +15% 3 +30% 4 -15% 5 -30% ##### Sheet/List 7 ##### Operating Taxes Oil Tax Export Tax Sliding of export barrels Royalty 5.0% of oil revenues Other taxes 1.0% of total revenues Export Oil Price 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Export Tax 0.0 0.0 5.1 1.8 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.0 Royalty 0.0 0.0 3.3 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 Other 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total 0 0.0 9.0 3.1 1.9 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 Export Tax Cut-off point 30 US$/bbl Tax 25% above cut-off point Export Tax ($/bbl) 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 Gas Tax Export Tax 30% export revenues Royalty 0.5 US$/mcf 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Export Tax Royalty Total 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Operating Taxes 0 0 9 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 Total US$/boe 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 5.99 #DĚLENÍ_NULOU! #DĚLENÍ_NULOU! Gross Taxes US$/bbl Saudi Arabia 0 Iran 0 Iraq 0.91 Russia 8.44 Indonesia 1.55 US conv 5.03 Norway 0.19 US shale 6.42 Canada 2.48 Venezuela 10.48 Nigeria 4.11 Brazil 6.66 UK 0 ##### Sheet/List 8 ##### WACC Calculation Risk Free Rate Corporate Interest Rate Equity market return Company Beta Corporate Tax Rate Debt Equity Debt:Equity Split 100% Cost of Debt 0.00% Cost of Equity 0.00% WACC 0.00% ##### Sheet/List 9 ##### Sensitivities Oil Price Oil Price Capex NPV 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Production NPV 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Production Opex Capex NPV 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Opex NPV 30% 15% 0% -15% -30% Corporate Tax Rate Tax Rate NPV Discount Rate 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Discount Rate NPV 5.0% 7.5% 10.0% 12.5% 15.0% Summary Oil Price Production Capex Opex Corp Tax Disc. Rate Downside 0 0 0 0 0 0 Low 0 0 0 0 0 0 Base 0 0 0 0 0 0 High 0 0 0 0 0 0 Upside 0 0 0 0 0 0 ##### Sheet/List 10 ##### PSA Regime 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Company Revenues 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Operating Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Transport Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Operating Taxes 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBITDA 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Depreciation 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 EBIT 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Tax on EBIT 0 0 -6.45975 -2.2609125 -1.3565475 -1.017410625 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 Corporate Tax Rate 20% Post tax cashflow 0 0 26 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 CAPEX 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Free Cashflow (FCF) 0 0 26 9 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 Cumulative FCF 0 0 26 35 40 44 47 50 53 56 59 61 64 66 69 71 73 76 78 80 82 84 84 84 Discount Rate 10% Discount Factor 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 2.36 2.59 2.85 3.14 3.45 3.80 4.18 4.59 5.05 5.56 6.12 6.73 7.40 8.14 8.95 9.85 Discounted Cashflow (DCF) 0 0 19 6 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NPV ($mm) 43 IRR (%) #ČÍSLO! Revenue Calculation Company Govt Cost Oil 80% Profit Oil 50% 50% 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Total Revenues 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 0 0 Govt Royalty 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1% Taxable Revenues 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 Cost Oil 80% of Revenues 0 0 52 18 11 8 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 0 0 Accumulated Cost Oil 0 52 70 81 89 95 101 107 112 118 123 128 133 138 142 147 151 155 159 163 167 167 167 Annual Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Accumulated Costs 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 52 70 81 89 95 101 107 112 118 123 128 133 138 142 147 151 155 159 163 167 167 167 Payback 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 Cost Oil to Company 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Profit Oil 0 0 65 23 14 10 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 Profit Oil Company 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Govt 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Total Company Revenues 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Company Revenues 0 0 32 11 7 5 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 0 0 Govt. Revenues 0 0 33 12 7 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 0 0 ##### Sheet/List 11 ##### Exploration Well Analysis Chance of Success 20% Cost of Well 50 US$mm NPV of Success 146 Dry Hole -40.0 Successful Well 29 EMV -11 ##### Sheet/List 12 ##### Questions Real and Nominal 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q1 100 102.5 105.1 107.7 110.4 113.1 Q2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Real 60 60 60 60 60 60 Nominal 60 61.20 62.42 63.67 64.95 66.24 Inflation 2% Real +1% 60 60.60 61.21 61.82 62.44 63.06 NPV and DCF Q1 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 US$mm 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 Discount factor 1.10 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 2.36 2.59 Discount Rate 10% DCF 91 83 75 68 62 56 51 47 42 39 NPV 614 NPV Excel 614 Q2 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 Capex -187.5 -187.5 -187.5 -187.5 -187.5 Cashflow 100 150 200 250 300 300 300 300 300 300 270 243 219 197 177 Net Cashflow -188 -188 -188 -188 -188 100 150 200 250 300 300 300 300 300 300 270 243 219 197 177 Discount Factor 1.1 1.21 1.33 1.46 1.61 1.77 1.95 2.14 2.36 2.59 2.85 3.14 3.45 3.80 4.18 4.59 5.05 5.56 6.12 6.73 Discount Rate 10% DCF -170 -155 -141 -128 -116 56 77 93 106 116 105 96 87 79 72 59 48 39 32 26 NPV 381 NPV Excel 381 IRR 16% Cost Inflation 1.25 ##### Sheet/List 13 ##### Time Value of Money At Jan 1 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 US$ 100 US$ 100 US$ 100 Interest Rate 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Multiplier 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.13 1.16 1.19 1.23 1.27 1.30 1.34 Real versus Nominal Costs At Dec 31 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 US$ Nominal 1 1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Inflation Rate 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Multiplier 1 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 Money available 100 Chocolate Bars Money Invested 100.0 Chocolate Bars 100.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 US$ Real (2018) Money Available Cost of Choc Bar ##### Sheet/List 14 ##### Example Discounted Cashflow Example 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Cashflow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Discount Factor Discounted Cashflow NPV 0.0 Discount Rate 0% Excel Calculation 0.0 Example 2 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10 Capital Cost -100 -100 -100 Revenue 30 60 120 150 150 150 150 Operating Cost -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 -5 Net Cashflow -100 -100 -100 25 55 115 145 145 145 145 Discount Factor 1.08 1.17 1.26 1.36 1.47 1.59 1.71 1.85 2.00 2.16 Discounted Cashflow -92.6 -85.7 -79.4 18.4 37.4 72.5 84.6 78.3 72.5 67.2 NPV 173.2 Discount Rate 8% IRR 18.66% Excel Calculation 173.2