SOC606 – Sociologie rodiny
Martin Kreidl
27.2.2018

Druhá demografická tranzice
•Lesthaeghe, van de Kaa (1986): 2DT = „interrelated changes in fertility, family formation, and
partnership behaviour, which started in the late 1960s in many countries of Western and Northern
Europe“
•1. Fertility below replacement levels (higher order parties are reduced)
•2. Massive postponement of parenthood (Modern contraception+ other goals)
•3. Cohabitation+union instability: rising out of wedlock births
•
•
SOC606- přednáška 1
2

Zdroje a koreláty
•structural changes (modernization, the growth of the service economy and the welfare state, the
expansion of higher education)
•cultural changes (secularization, the rise of individualistic values, the importance of
self-expression and self-fulfilment)
•technological changes (the adoption of modern contraception, the advances in assisted
reproduction, the explosion of new information technologies) (van de Kaa 1994)
SOC606- přednáška 1
3

Current fertility levels
SOC606- přednáška 1
4
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)

Current fertility levels
SOC606- přednáška 1
5
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)
•

Current fertility levels
SOC606- přednáška 1
6
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)

Age at 1st birth
SOC606- přednáška 1
7
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)
•

Completed cohort fertility
SOC606- přednáška 1
8
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)
•

Completed cohort fertility ii.
SOC606- přednáška 1
9
Source: Frejka, Sobotka (2008)
•

Childlessness
SOC606- přednáška 1
10

Childlessness
SOC606- přednáška 1
11

Childlessness
SOC606- přednáška 1
12

Diskuze k 2DT
•
SOC606- přednáška 1
13

Rozdíly od 1DT
•van de Kaa (1996: 425) 2DR is a “quintessential narrative of ideational and cultural change,”
•main distinction from the first demographic transition - “overwhelming preoccupation with
self-fulfillment, personal freedom of choice, personal development and lifestyle, and emancipation“
•„as reflected in family formation, attitudes towards fertility regulation and the motivation for
parenthood.”
SOC606- přednáška 1
14

Re-definice
•van de Kaa (2002: 29) “while below replacement fertility currently is a crucial element of the
Second Transition, this need not be a permanent state.”
•
SOC606- přednáška 1
15

Kritiky
•Cliquet (1991): there is no apparent discontinuity between the first and the second demographic
transition •Recent changes are “a new acceleration in relational and reproductive patterns,
associated to modernization”
SOC606- přednáška 1
16

Terminologie
•The idea of a ‘transition’ suggests that there is a ‘final state,’
–a new demographic regime
–convergence
•Lesthaeghe and van de Kaa
–did not formally define a starting point
–did not envision any quantifiable endpoint of the transition
SOC606- přednáška 1
17

Micro-macro paradox
•Individual level – growing plurality of family forms and trajectories •Macro-level: convergence in
demographic indicators
SOC606- přednáška 1
18

But
•Historically – Europe had diverse (regional) types of family behavior
–They persist
–Hence – no convergence
•de Beer, Corijn and Deven (2000: 124): different types of changes in F&F do not fit into „one
model of the second demographic transition”
SOC606- přednáška 1
19

Lack of synchronicity
•synchronicity between the behavioural and value changes is (often) missing (e.g. Romania, early
1990s)
•
•
SOC606- přednáška 1
20

2DT is centered on (North-western) Europe
•Is it going to spread to other parts of the world?
–But evidence from the US (Lesthaeghe and Neidert 2006) & Japan (Matsuo 2001, Rindfuss et al. 2004)
•Q: Do new values also spread into CEE?
SOC606- přednáška 1
21

Sobotka, T. 2008a. Overview Chapter 6:The diverse faces of the Second Demographic Transition in
Europe. In Demographic Research. 19 (8): 171-224.
•
SOC606- přednáška 2
22

•
SOC606- přednáška 1
23

•
SOC606- přednáška 1
24

Explanations
•RWA (readiness, willingness, ability, Coale, 1973) framework
–Readiness: ‘cost-benefit calculation’ (there exist economic, social, and psychological advantages
of adopting new behaviour)
–Willingness - cultural and ethical acceptability; legitimacy of the new behavior
–Ability refers to the technical or legal means that enable individuals to adopt new behaviour
SOC606- přednáška 1
25