Logo_Signature_Cover_PPT 001_cover BSS194 Threats from Outer Space MAREK DVORACEK 26. 3. 2019 Content 1)What is going on? 2)SST 3)NEOs 4)Weather 5)Others What is going on? Planetary and Stellar unintentional and natural threats 1608 - Hans Lippershey patent for refracting telescope https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odGrgsLkfUQ Space Situational Awareness Space Surveillance and Tracking Space Debris Near-Earth Objects Asteroids Space Weather Sun-related Phenomena Cislunar outer space is not an empty space. On the contrary it is becoming more „contested, congested, competitive“ Space Surveillance and Tracking (SST) Sources and Sinks of Space Debris Sources Launches (rocket bodies, payloads, mission related objects) Fragmentations (explosions, collisions) Non-fragmentation debris (surface degradation, solid rocket motor particles) Sinks Natural decay (atmospheric drag, solar radiation pressure, lunisolar perturbations) Active Removal (de-orbit, non-propulsive maneuvers) Natural decay efficiency diminishes drastically with altitude Enhanced SST capabilities C:\Users\gpinna\Documents\SSA\Radar\SSA-Sensors3b.jpg Feng Yun-1C anti-satellite test (2007): 34% increase of trackable objects Iridium-33 and Cosmos-2251 collision (2009): 17% increase of trackable objects https://aerospace.org/story/space-debris-and-space-traffic-management Why even care? http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2019/aac_105c_12019crp/aac_105c_12019crp_7_0_html/ AC105_C1_2019_CRP07E.pdf What to do now? NEOs Near Earth Objects Asteroids or comets of sizes ranging from metres to tens of kilometres that orbit the Sun and whose orbits come close to that of Earth’s. Of the more than 600 000 known asteroids in our Solar System, more than 18000 are NEOs. comprising natural objects that can potentially impact Earth and cause damage, and assessing their impact risk and potential mitigation measures Less than 1% of NEOs (15 – 40m) discovered Average one impact every 10 years (Chelyabinsk type – 20m) NEOs Stuff from space https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9q3uNcJh4pc meteorites are everywhere There are probably more than 500 000 fireballs a year (shooting star) 2018 „Nearly 22.5 million observations of asteroids and comets had been collected in 2018 by the worldwide network of astronomical observatories, based in 41 countries. It also noted that the number of known near-Earth objects had exceeded 19 574 as at 1 February 2019, of which 1 837 had been discovered in 2018, with 1 963 asteroids now catalogued whose orbits took them within 8 million kilometres of Earth’s orbit.“ http://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2019/aac_105c_1l/aac_105c_1l_374add_2_0_html/AC10 5_C1_L374Add02E.pdf More Hunting to Do NASA's NEO Observations Program (asteroid surveys) is responsible for over 90 percent of near-Earth asteroid and comet discoveries. The discovery rate averages about 40 per week. NEO Observations Program - to discover 90 percent of the NEOs down to the much smaller size of 140 meters by the year 2020 These smaller asteroids may not present a threat of global catastrophe if they impact Earth, but they could still cause massive regional devastation and loss of life, especially if they occur near a metropolitan area https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7194 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_eEXScLFBA https://www.vox.com/xpress/2014/9/8/6118717/interactives-calculator-asteroid-meteoroid-meteorite-c omet-destroy Image result for asteroid impact Impacts - Siljan ring – 375 mil. years ago, 52km ◦largest crater in Europe - Chicxulub crater - 66 mil. years ago, 150km, 11-80km diameter ◦killed dinosaurs - Vredefort crater – 2 bil. years ago, 160 km ◦largest confirmed known crater on Earth Related image Impact consequences - instant destruction at the impact site - firestorms, shockwave, tsunamis - “impact winter” – dust and ash blocking sun ◦drop in temperatures, no photosynthesis ◦food chain collapse, extinction of species ◦ ◦Experience the Disaster that Wiped Out Dinosaurs ◦ Impacts in the present - Tunguska, 1908 – 30m in diameter ◦10 megaton equivalent airburst ◦80 mil trees damaged, no known victims - Chelyabinsk, 2013 – 20m in diameter ◦440 kilotons of energy ◦1500 injured, thousands of buildings damaged -Bering Sea, 2018 ◦173 kilotons of energy, 11x Little Boy ◦Remote area, unnoticed, ex-post - small impacts and near misses are very common Image result for chelyabinsk airburst gif Asteroid / Planetary Defence - by impact ◦kinetic ◦nuclear - deflection ◦gravitational ◦solar ◦propulsion ◦laser - crucial element: monitoring and early warning https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/3/3e/Deep_Impact_HRI.jpeg/800px-Deep_Impact_HR I.jpeg NASA‘ Double Asteroid Redirection Test + ESA Hera experiment §First precise measurement of deflection efficiency and Planetary Defence capability §First binary asteroid and smallest asteroid ever visited §First detailed measurement of small body cratering physics §First deep-space CubeSat for very close asteroid inspection Space Weather Space Weather I) A solar flare is an eruption of radiation emitted from the energy accumulated in the sun’s magnetic fields as they become increasingly unstable II) Coronal Mass Ejections are large expulsions of plasma and magnetic field originating from the Sun’s coronal atmosphere III) Solar Energetic Particles, are high energy charged particles accelerated by the Sun, a form of cosmic ray Image result for solar storm Space Weather event SW_Cartoon_Final Space Weather - Carrington event (1859) ◦extreme aurora visible in the Caribbean, Africa ◦telegraph wires overloaded, fires, shocks, etc. ◦ - SC 22 flare (1989, quite small) ◦auroras in Texas, blackout in Quebec ◦satellites failing, people panicking over WW3 ◦ - 2012 near miss, Carrington-sized - we cannot really predict them Space Weather Modern society is totally dependent upon energy networks, and a repeat of the Carrington Event – a solar storm in 1859 that severely impacted the worldwide telegraph infrastructure – would have even more extreme consequences today As a result of increased dependency on the systems that would be affected, with estimated losses of up to $2 trillion in the US alone Not IF, but WHEN, with a similar level (or worse) event likely within the next 50 years. Contingency plans? Not yet. Duck and hope for the best. L1-L5 ESA Project The L1 point is “located in the solar wind “upstream” from Earth, so measurements at L1 provide information about the space weather coming toward Earth”. The L5 point, “located 60 degrees behind Earth, close to its orbit, will provide a way to monitor Earth-oriented coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the 'side' so as to give more precise estimates of the speed and direction of the CME”. The primary objective of the L1 mission is “to provide in-situ observations of the interplanetary medium, including solar wind speed, density, temperature and dynamic pressure, as well as characteristics of the charged particle environment and the direction and strength of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF). The L1 mission will also monitor the solar disc and solar corona and measure solar energetic particles that may be associated with solar flares and the onset of coronal mass ejections”. The L5 mission objective is “to complement measurements made from L1 by providing a view of the Sun away from the direct Sun-Earth line. This gives visibility of the propagation of plasma clouds emitted by the Sun toward Earth, as well as views of the solar disk before it rotates into view from Earth. Development of SWE L5: •Solar corona monitoring •Heliospheric imaging •Solar disc magnetic field •EUV imaging •In-situ measurements: osolar wind omagnetic field ocharged particles ohot plasma •Mission phases in SSA-P3 oA/B1 oReadiness for B2/C/D The sun rotates with a period of 27.25 days Honorable mentions - others - Supernovas - Gamma-ray burst - our Sun will turn into red giant in about 5e9 years - Milky Way will collide with Andromeda in 4e9 years - Earth will become too hot in 1e9 years (billion) - heat death of the universe in 1e100 years - ALIENS! Image result for gamma ray burst Aliens If aliens do exist, theoretical physicist Dr. Michio Kaku posits, why would they want anything to do with us? It would be like a hunter talking to a squirrel, he suggests. Hollywood and science fiction novels have conditioned us for years to believe that aliens either want to hang out on our intellectual level and learn from us... or destroy us. If alien life really does have the technology and know-how to make it all the way here, perhaps we should just play it cool and not assume that we are the top species in the universe. Mankind's biggest folly, Kaku suggests, might just be in its insistence that we are an exceptional species. - Arrival, Annihilation, Expanse, Stanislaw Lem… Some interesting sources Planetary Defense: Global Collaboration for Defending Earth from Asteroids and Comets http://www.jwc.nato.int/images/stories/_news_items_/2017/SPACESUPPORT_NATO_ThreeSwordsJuly17.pdf https://espi.or.at/news/new-espi-report-european-space-weather-services https://espi.or.at/publications/espi-public-reports/send/2-public-espi-reports/371-security-in-out er-space-rising-stakes-for-europe https://esamultimedia.esa.int/multimedia/publications/BR-338/BR-338.pdf