An Unprecedented Intelligence Operation: USA intervention to
Afghanistan
EUP436 Afghanistan's regional security complex
▪ Intelligence
▪ Plan for al-Qaida destruction
▪ Putting it into effect
▪ Taliban crumbles, al-Qaida retreats
Lecture’s overview
Why intelligence
▪ To avoid strategic surprises
▪ To provide long-term expertise
▪ To support the policy process
▪ To maintain secrecy of information, need and methods
„Intelligence is the process by which specific types of information important
to national security are requested, collected, analysed, and provided to
policy makers; the products of that process; safeguarding of these process
and this information by counterintelligence activities; and the carrying out
of operations as requested by lawful activities“ Lowenthal, 2000
Defining Intelligence
„Intelligence is the umbrella term referring to the range of activities – from
planning and information collection to analysis and dissemination –
conducted in secret, and aimed at maintaining or enhancing relative
security by providing forewarning of threats or potential threats in a
manner that allows for the timely implementation of a preventive policy or
strategy, including, where deemed desirable, covert activities“ Gill &
Pythian, 2006
Another point of view on intelligence
▪ Intelligence as:
▪ Process
▪ Product
▪ Organisation
▪ Intelligence operations to:
▪ Obtain information
▪ Disrupt a target - intervention to Afghanistan
▪ Influence an outcome - negotiation with the Taliban
Decision
Dissemination
Planning
Collection
Analysis
Requirements
Planning for destruction of al-Qaida
▪ CIA at the forefront of the effort
„When we're through with them they will
have flies walking across their eyeballs“
▪ Two competing voices
▪ Counter-terrorism centre
▪ Chief of station – Islamabad
▪ Alec station since 1996
▪ Jawbreaker since 1999
▪ CENTCOM in a supporting role
▪ Pakistani ISI also helped
Outlines of the plan
1. Recruit tribal militias
2. Embed special forces
3. Use air power
▪ Find and destroy al-Qaida
▪ Not to alienate Pashtuns
▪ Kabul as sensitive issue
▪ Few boots on the ground imperative
Islamabad
Northern Alliance HQ
Kabul
Kandahar – Taliban HQ
▪ First team deployed on 26.9.
▪ 7 teams deployed in total,
only two of them in the
South
▪ Effective air campaign
▪ Disastrous on TB morale
▪ Boosting allies’ morale
▪ Taliban unprepared – no
defence planning; lack of
communication
▪ 7.12. Kandahar fell
Putting it into effect
© CBS and Gary Schroen
▪ Lots of TB prisoners
▪ AQ leaders and operatives
retreated to Pakistan and Iran
▪ Lots of friendly networks in
Pakistan
▪ Bombing attack on IND
parliament – PAKMIL moved
unit to the Eastern border
▪ Some of the CIA allies get
bribed to allow AQ retreat
▪ Not enough US forces on the
ground to prevent that
Taliban crumbles, al-Qaida retreats