In/out referendum campaign Dr Monika Brusenbauch Meislová EVS465: Brexit: Politics, Policies and Processes 9 April 2019 Referendum campaign ̶ unofficial beginning: 20 February 2016 when PM announced that a referendum would be held) ̶ official beginning: 15 April 2016 ̶ duration: 10 weeks ̶ Electoral Commission selected two official groups: ̶ Designated official leading Remain campaigning group: Britain Stronger in Europe ̶ Designated official leading Leave campaigning group: Vote Leave Referendum campaign Cabinet divisions ̶ Dilemma → suspension of collective cabinet responsibility by Cameron ̶ 6 of 24 cabinet ministers rejected the government position ̶ importance of Boris Johnson’s decision to back Leave (DC wanted to avoid any sense of infighting/“blue on blue” attacks) ̶ Tensions over the use of govt officials. Remain campaign ̶ Focus on economic costs of brexit (Treasury, IMF, Bank of England) ̶ the one issue the Remain campaign could unite around ̶ conglomerate of campaigners ̶ focus was on the transactional, business-like partnership ̶ Intervention by Obama ̶ Project Fear ̶ Pro-Remain campaign no illustration history in UK politics ̶ The leadership of the campaign rested with the PM ̶ Corbyn hesitant in his support for Remain ̶ Lib Dem recovering from a heavy 2015 defeat ̶ Other Remain-backing parties (SNP, Greens, Lib Dem) uneasy at sharing a campaign with Cameron Leave Campaign ̶ Many Leave campaign groups ̶ Vote Leave: official campaign, a cross-party campaign run by Matthew Elliot and Dominic Cummings ̶ Boris Johnson, Michael Gove, Labour MP Gisela Stuart ̶ Leave.EU – a group connected to UKIP and funded by Aaron Banks → Tensions between the two groups (but allowed for a series of messages to be communicated to different groups of voters instead just one single message) ̶ Initial focus on the economic and sovereignty argument → quickly moved to an immigration territory ̶ UKIP connections Leave Campaign ̶ Immigration as the predominant issue in the debate ̶ Leave campaign able to draw on people’s concerns about immigration with regard to security, identity, welfare, cost, border control + repeated failures of govt. ̶ A post-truth political campaign/fact-free campaign ̶ unlike general elections, there is no set date for another vote ̶ Both sides made much disputed claims! ̶ Most notorious (Vote Leave): we send 350 million the EU a week – let’s fund our NHS instead. Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Cameron’s negotiations failed to convince ̶ Three important groups in particular: ̶ Conservative parliamentary party (138 out of 330 backed Leave) ̶ Conservative-backing media ̶ Public and Conservative voters ̶ Renegotiation = time wasted? ̶ Exposed tensions within the Remain camp ̶ The Leave campaign had stronger messages ̶ Cameron not a leading asset for Remain (unlike 2011 AV referendum) ̶ 2016: damaged reputation (austerity, govt cuts, Panama papers affair) Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? ̶ Lib Dem electorally tarnished ̶ Labour/Corbyn: lack of enthusiasm, poor portrayal in the press ̶ Leave campaign: mix of messengers at the UK level ̶ Boris Johnson: strong, charismatic figurehead ̶ Backing of other members of the Cabinet (govt in waiting) Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The Leave campaign better organised and run ̶ Leave campaign: ̶ more professional ̶ long history of Eurosceptic groups ̶ advantage of the many factions (different messages targeted at different groups of voters) ̶ not without tensions, of course (Cummings versus Farage) ̶ ruthless campaigning Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Economic arguments proved insufficient to win the referendum ̶ Remain: too much focus on economic costs (reliability of the figures questioned) ̶ Business divided (contrast with 1975) ̶ “That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours“. Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Remain had no answer to arguments about immigration ̶ Immigration took over economy as a number-one concern. ̶ Remain hobbled by Cameron’s 2010 commitment to bring down net immigration to under 100,000 a year (UK never came close to achieving this). ̶ Problems of Labour with focusing on immigration. Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The media campaign was won by Leave ̶ British printed press traditionally Eurosceptic. ̶ Cameron surprised by the campaigning might of British Right-leaning press. ̶ Broadcast media more impartial (by law) ̶ Online and social media dominated by Leave. ̶ Take back control: great slogan Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The EU was difficult to sell ̶ 2016 EU = faced with a series of crises (Eurozone, migration, Russia, Euroscepticism) ̶ Not helped by the UK’s low level of knowledge about the EU (ill-prepared to assess the claims made by either side) ̶ Cameron & Co: reaping what they had sown (inconsistency appeared patronising) ̶ Intervention by Obama Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The electoral franchise benefited Leave ̶ 16- and 17-year olds, EU nationals residents in the UK and British citizens who had lived abroad for longer than 15 years unable to vote ̶ Inaccurate polling Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Campaign connected to matters not directly about EU-UK relations ̶ Diverse matters ̶ Anti-politics and anti-austerity ̶ Ill-defined targets such as distant and elitist London ̶ Challenges of globalisation