WORKINGPAPER|ISSUE01| 6FEBRUARY2019
Alicia Garcia Herrero (alicia.garcia-herrero@bruegel.org) is a Senior Fellow at Bruegel.
Jianwei Xu (jianwei.xu@bruegel.org) is a Non-resident Fellow at Bruegel.
The authors are grateful to Hanrui Li of HKUST IEMS for research assistance.
ALICIA GARCIA HERRERO AND JIANWEI XU
Drawing on a global database of media articles, we quantitatively assess
perceptions of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in different countries
and regions. We find that the BRI is generally positively received. All regions
as a whole, except South Asia, have a positive perception of the BRI, but
there are marked differences at the country level, with some countries in
all regions having very negative views. Interestingly, there is no significant
difference in perceptions of the BRI between countries that officially
participate in the BRI and those that do not.
We also use our dataset of media articles to identify the topics that are most
frequently associated with the BRI. The most common topics are trade and
investment. Finally, we use regression analysis to identify how the frequency
with which these topics are discussed in the news affects the perceptions
of the BRI in different countries. We find that the more frequently trade is
mentioned in the media, the more negative a country’s perception of the BRI
tends to be. On the other hand, while investment under the BRI seems also
to attract attention in the media, it is not statistically relevant for countries’
perceptions of the BRI.
COUNTRIES’ PERCEPTIONS
OF CHINA’S BELT AND ROAD
INITIATIVE: A BIG DATA
ANALYSIS
1
2
𝑇𝑗,𝑐 =
𝑤 𝑗,𝑝,𝑐−𝑤 𝑗,𝑛,𝑐
𝑤 𝑗,𝑐
∈ (−100, +100)
T =
1
𝑁 𝑐
∑ 𝑇𝑗,𝑐𝑗 ∈ (−100, +100)
3
4
5
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Central Asia Sub-Saharan
Africa
East Asia &
Pacific
Middle East
and North
Africa
Europe(the
EU)
Europe(the
Non-EU)
North
America
Latin America
and the
Caribbean
South Asia
Media sentiment World average
4-2 620-4
Negative Positive
Central Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia & Pacific
Middle East &
North Africa
Europe (EU)
Europe (Non-EU)
North America
Latin America
& Caribbean
South Asia
UzbekistanTajikistan
BotswanaTanzaniaZimbabweSouth Africa
Australia Thailand Vietnam Laos
Iraq Syria Yemen Jordan
Sweden Finland Portugal Netherland
Bosnia and Herzegovina Ukraine Turkey Belarus
Canada US
Guyana Venezuela Jamaica
Maldives Bhutan Pakistan Afghanistan
Poland
Vanuatu
6
7
0 1 2 3i i i i iTone BRI Trade Investment    = + + + +
2 3
8
^
9
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Botswana
Netherlands
Liberia
Tanzania
Laos
Morocco
Jordan
Portugal
Chad
Zambia
Jamaica
Yemen
Uzbekistan
Slovenia
China
United Arab Emirates
Indonesia
Ethiopia
Viet Nam
Kyrgyzstan
Belarus
Egypt
Rwanda
Bahrain
Cyprus
Malawi
Kazakhstan
Italy
Georgia
Nigeria
Afghanistan
Malta
Croatia
Papua New Guinea
Albania
Brunei
Luxembourg
Cambodia
Lebanon
Brazil
Zimbabwe
Ghana
Colombia
France
Thrinidad and Tobago
Myanmar
Greece
Costa Rica
Serbia
Somalia
Tajikistan
Lithuania
Azerbaijan
Singapore
Nepal
Cameroon
Finland
Macedonia
Armenia
Slovakia
Syria
Panama
Mauritius
Mongolia
Pakistan
Thailand
Madagascar
South Korea
Spain
United States
United Kingdom
Turkey
New Zealand
Austria
Malaysia
Kenya
Latvia
Japan
Germany
Haiti
Senegal
Argentina
Estonia
Philippines
Bulgaria
Algeria
Israel
Saudi Arabia
Sweden
Hungary
Samoa
Bahamas
Uganda
Peru
Sri Lanka
Cuba
Iran
Venezuela
Switzerland
Bolivia
Canada
Dominica
South Africa
Montenegro
Romania
Mexico
Bangladesh
Qatar
Australia
Denmark
Russia
Moldova
Ireland
Vanuatu
Uruguay
Oman
Czech Republic
Chile
Belgium
Ukraine
Nicaragua
Ecuador
India
Bhutan
Kuwait
Iraq
Norway
Poland
Guyana
Bosnia and Herzegovina
Maldives
Tone(Non-BRI countries) Tone(BRI countries)
Negative Positive
Sub-Saharan Africa
East Asia & Pacific
Middle East &
North Africa
Europe (EU)
Europe (Non-EU)
Latin America
& Caribbean
South Asia
Most negative:
A Chinese
energy company
is involved in an
alleged bribery
scandal.
Most frequent:
The trade deficit
with China could
be increased.
Most positive:
Investment in
infrastructure could
help develop local
area and add new
economic
opportunities.
Most negative:
None
Most frequent:
Expand foreign
trade within free
trade zone under
the BRI.
Most positive:
BRI is expected
to increase trade
cooperation.
Most negative:
Military
expansion may
affect
sovereignty.
Most frequent:
Investment in
infrastructure is
benefit to
development.
Most positive:
Investment in
infrastructure is
benefit to
development.
Most negative:
None
Most frequent:
Connectivity is
benefit to socio-
economic
development.
Most positive:
Connectivity is
benefit to socio-
economic
development.
Most
negative:
Insecurity
for workers
involved in
BRI projects.
Most frequent:
Investment in
infrastructure
development
could boost
economic growth
Most positive:
Investment in
infrastructure
development
could boost
economic growth
Most negative:
Deglobalisation
trend is opposite
to BRI.
Most frequent:
Investment from
China has
increased under
BRI.
Most positive:
Investment from
China has
increased under
BRI.
Most negative:
Huge investment
may cause debt
problem.
Most frequent:
The negative
trade balance
with China may
grow.
Most positive:
Trade
opportunities are
increasing under
BRI.
Most negative:
Expand political
influence
through BRI in
the region.
Most frequent:
BRI is expected
to increase trade
cooperation.
Most positive:
Quality of
products from
China has
improved.
Most negative:
The process
under BRI can
be made fairer.
Most frequent:
Improve
mutually
beneficial
cooperation.
Most positive:
Cooperation in trade
and investment
could be increased
under BRI.
Most negative:
Huge
investment may
trigger debt
problem
Most frequent:
Huge investment may
trigger debt problem;
The process needs to be
fairer (more local
labour and
participation)
Most
positive:
None
Most negative:
There exist
issues of
unlawfulness
under the BRI.
Most frequent:
There exist issues of
unlawfulness under the
BRI; Huge investment
may cause debt
problem.
Most positive:
Countries could
strengthen
cooperation
with China
under the BRI.
Most negative:
Most projects under
BRI are in
infrastructure sector,
which produce a lot
greenhouse gas and
may cause
environment problem.
Most frequent:
BRI can provide
opportunities for other
countries to expand
export to China and
engage in international
trade.
Most positive: Chinese
investment in Jamaica
contributes to generate
economic growth,
create job opportunities
in local area.
Most negative:
China engages
in land
grabbing in
Maldives.
Most frequent:
Maldives may fall
into debt trap when
facing huge
investment from
China under the BRI.
Most positive:
BRI will enhance
cooperation between
China and Maldives
through increasing trade,
investment and tourism.
Most negative:
Insecurity for
workers
involved in BRI
projects
Most frequent:
BRI could strengthen
win-win cooperation
between countries
Most positive: BRI
could strengthen winwin
cooperation
between countries
-3 6
1
http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-06/26/c_136394003.htm
2
https://www.fes-connect.org/trending/south-africas-dilemma-in-the-belt-and-road-initiative-losing-africa-for-china/
3
http://www.nationmultimedia.com/detail/big_read/30326442
4
http://www.espectador.com/internacionales/china-y-eeuu-superpotencias-camino-de-un-conflicto
5
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6
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7
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8
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9
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10
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11
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12
http://www.capital.ba/zamke-na-kineskom-putu-svile/
13
https://www.business-humanrights.org/en/bosnia-herzegovina-air-pollution-worsens-in-tuzla-while-govt-plans-for-more-coal-
power
14
http://www.jamaicaobserver.com/business-report/caribbean-must-dynamicaly-engage-with-
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15
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16
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17
https://maldivesindependent.com/business/chinese-lending-puts-maldives-at-risk-of-debt-distress-136331
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