POLITICS AND SOCIETY IN ISRAEL SPRING 2019 Session 8 Maya Hadar IRE215 § Israeli Foreign Policy § Foreign Policy makers § Diplomatic relations § International Relations And Foreign Policy § The Evolution of Israel’s Regional & International Relations § Israel and the US On The Agenda 2 Israel’s Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Makers => § The inner cabinet (the prime minister, minister of foreign affairs, minister of defense, and other selected ministers) is responsible for formulating Israel's major foreign policy decisions § Prime minister => Main decision maker § Ministry of foreign affairs => Policy implementation § The Director General is the face of the ministry, make public statements and respond to queries from ambassadors § The Assistant Directors General supervise the implementation of policy § Legal + political advisers have consultative (not operational) roles Israel’s Foreign Policy Foreign Policy Makers => § The influence of ambassadors depends on their status within the diplomatic service and the importance of the issue at hand § The Foreign Affairs & Security Committee of the Knesset (26 members) is less independent compared to the foreign affairs committees of the US Congress § Its role is to legitimize Government policy choices on controversial issues, not initiate new policies § Members of the committee frequently complain that they do not receive detailed information during briefings by government officials- government spokesmen replies that committee members tend to leak briefing reports to the media … Israeli Foreign Policy § Israeli foreign policy is mainly influenced by: § Israel's strategic situation § The Arab-Israeli conflict § The rejection of Israel by most of the Arab states § Goals => § To overcome diplomatic isolation § To achieve recognition + friendly relations with as many nations as possible (in the ME and beyond) § To foster increased Jewish immigration to Israel and to protect vulnerable Jewish communities in the Diaspora Israel’s Foreign Policy § Israel has simultaneously practiced both open and secret diplomacy to further its FP goals § Examples: § Military procurement § Exporting arms & military assistance § Intelligence cooperation § Commercial trade § Importing strategic raw materials § Exchanges of prisoners of war Israel's Diplomatic Missions Abroad Status of relations => § 160 countries with which Israel maintains diplomatic relations (/195) § Morocco, Tunisia, Qatar and the Sultanate of Oman do NOT recognize Israel or maintain diplomatic relations with it Israel's Diplomatic Missions Abroad Status of relations => § Venezuela, Bolivia & Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Israel in 2009 (following IDF’s operation against Hamas in Gaza) Israel's Diplomatic Missions Abroad § 103 diplomatic missions § Israel has been providing humanitarian & professional assistance to many developing states § Agriculture & water management § Development § Emergency medicine § Disaster relief … Israel's Diplomatic Missions Abroad Status of relations => § Israel also maintains missions to: § The United Nations (New York) § The United Nations institutions in Geneva § The United Nations institutions in Paris § The United Nations institutions in Vienna § The European Union (Brussels) § 79 resident embassies § 22 consulates general § 6 special missions Regional & International Strategic Relations The “periphery doctrine”/ “Alliance of the periphery” § A foreign policy strategy developed by Israel’s first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion § Targeting Turkey, pre-revolutionary Iran & (predominantly Christian) Ethiopia § Essence => Israel should develop close strategic alliances with non-Arab Muslim states in the Middle-East § Goal => to counteract the united opposition of Arab states to the existence of Israel Regional & International Strategic Relations The “periphery doctrine”/the “Alliance of the periphery” => § 1948-1977 => repeated wars with the surrounding Arab states + high degree of international isolation Exceptions: § Israel’s “periphery” alliances with Iran, Turkey, Ethiopia, the Iraqi Kurds and other primarily non-Arab states + ethnic groups on the geographic/demographic margins of the Middle East § Close strategic relationship with global powers => the Soviet Bloc (briefly, 1948), the UK, France and the US (since 1967) Regional & International Strategic Relations The periphery doctrine mostly failed => § Iran => the Shah of Iran fell in 1979 § Lebanon => Israel invaded it in 1982 § One success: Peace with Egypt (1977-1979) => a beginning of peace with the Sunni Arab core surrounding Israel § Evidence to the Arabs that Israel could survive their prolonged siege Camp David, 1979 Regional & International Strategic Relations § Primary strategic objectives => Peace with the Arabs + acceptance by the region § Peace treaties => Egyptian-Israeli peace, the Oslo accords (Palestinians), peace with Jordan § The collapse of the Soviet Union opened the door to relations with several major powers => Beijing, Delhi and Moscow § Expansion of Israel’s international diplomatic and commercial reach § Integration of Israel’s robust post-industrial economy into global trade § Massive immigration to Israel from the former Soviet countries (have granted Israel demographic critical mass) Regional & International Strategic Relations § Classic Israel-Arab wars ended in 1973, replaced by asymmetric conflicts (Intifadas, terrorism, etc.) + Iranian nuclear threat 21st century => § Peace with Egypt and Jordan § Instability + dysfunctional nature of many Arab regimes => a coalition of Arab countries fighting Israel together isn’t likely for the foreseeable future § The Palestinian issue is very much in the consciousness of the international community (widespread media coverage) => domestic problem Regional & International Strategic Relations Netanyahu Leverages the Arab Revolutions to Develop New Strategic Relationships § 2011 => “Arab Spring” => emergence political + militant Islam in former periphery § Revolutions in Syria and Egypt: potential threats to Israel by IS Sunni Islamists, al-Qaeda (Hamas + Hezbolla) § Threat perceptions shared by Egypt and Jordan => border Syria § The revolution in Libya caused the dispersal of a huge arsenal of arms to Islamists in Sinai and the Gaza Strip Regional & International Strategic Relations Netanyahu Leverages the Arab Revolutions to Develop New Strategic Relationships § Civil war in Yemen => a danger to shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb Straitaffecting Israeli and Egyptian interests § Turkey => increasingly Islamist government § Iran => a nuclear threat § 2015: Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)/Iran nuclear deal § 2018: Trump opted out § Israel is again surrounded by hostile states and entities (close: Islamists in the Levant, the Gaza Strip and Egyptian Sinai, far: Turkey and Iran) Regional & International Strategic Relations New and dynamic dimensions in Israeli strategic security policies (2016-) => § Enhanced clandestine strategic relations with Sunni Arab “core” neighbors § A new “periphery” to balance & deter Sunni/Shiite Islamist threats: § New military + economic strategic depth in the eastern Mediterranean § Expanded strategic relations with major powers (e.g. China, India, Russia: share Israel’s concerns regarding militant Islam) Regional & International Strategic Relations New and dynamic dimensions in Israeli strategic security policies (2016-) => § In parallel => § Tensions with the US during the Obama administration § Israel’s key economic and strategic ties to Europe are threatened due to the Palestinian issue Regional & International Strategic Relations § December 2016 => Second summit of the year of the Israeli, Greek (indebted financially to its EU partners) and Cypriot heads of states The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § Shared security concerns regarding the problematic neighbors (Islamizing Turkey, Iran’s Hezbollah proxy force in Lebanon, and ricochet from the war in Syria) § The prospect of exporting natural gas via Cyprus to Greece from Israel’s Leviathan discovery in the Mediterranean. § Joint military exercises (a sign of an intimate strategic relationship) Regional & International Strategic Relations § December 2016 => Israeli, Green & Cypriot summit The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § Unprecedented => Greece + Cyprus were traditionally considered pro-Arab (they needed Arab oil) § Have readjusted their perspective due to the chaos generated by Arab revolutions + availability of alternative energy sources Regional & International Strategic Relations The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § December 2016 => Israeli, Green & Cypriot summit § Problems: § Difficult logistics of laying a seabed gas pipeline from Israel’s Leviathan gas deposit to Greece (100km) § Turkey (patched up relations with Israel in late 2016) wants the gas => easier to transport it there § Benefits for Israel => § Since 2011, Greece (specially since it became a home to a million Muslim migrants and refugees) & Cyprus needed Israel as a buffer against Turkey and the militant Islam generated by the Arab revolutions Regional & International Strategic Relations The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § Further benefits for Israel => § Needs friends in the EU: increasingly critical of Its behaviour toward the Palestinians § Dealing with Turkey: 2016: Israeli Turkish reconciliation (in 2010 Turkey attempted to break the Israeli blockade of Gaza) § Turkish- Israeli economic relations never suffered, both leveraged Arab chaos for their mutual benefit § Impossible for Turkish goods to be transported safely via Syria & Iraq to Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf, Turkish container trucks transited in Israel: arrived to Haifa (by sea), exited via the Israel-Jordan border Regional & International Strategic Relations The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § In return, Turkey allowed Iraqi Kurdish oil to transit its territory for passage (by sea) to Israel § Also interested in Israeli gas => § Egypt (was fighting ISIS in the Sinai Peninsula + Egyptian heartland: needed security cooperation with Israel against militant Islam) § Russia (implanted on Syria’s Mediterranean coast) § Post-war Syria would look for Gas in the Mediterranean; Russia (Syria’s patron power) could ensure maritime harmony between Israeli and Syrian gas fields Regional & International Strategic Relations The Mediterranean: Anti-Islamist and Economic Strategic Depth => § Early 2017 => Israel was doing well on its western front (Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Egypt and Russia) A direct consequence of the need for cooperation against the spillover effect of “Arab spring” revolutions (Syria and Lebanon) + gas considerations Regional & International Strategic Relations East Africa and Central Asia § Netanyahu’s success in leveraging Arab chaos was NOT confined to the area west of Israel § July 2016 => Netanyahu met six heads of states in East Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, South Sudan, Rwanda and Tanzania) § Signed security agreements providing for Israeli support in countering Islamist terrorism (presumably from Sudan, Somalia and Yemen) § The first African visit by an Israeli prime minister in 30 years Regional & International Strategic Relations East Africa and Central Asia § Late 2016 => Netanyahu visited Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan § In Baku, President Aliyev noted publicly that his country purchased nearly $5 billion worth of Israeli weapons + the Israeli Iron Dome anti-rocket missile system (purchases mostly paid for in shipments of oil) § Unlike the Mediterranean instance, this meeting did not evolve due to the outbreak of Arab revolutions § The two countries’ shared concerns about the threat projected from south of Azerbaijan by Iran’s militant Shiite Islam Regional & International Strategic Relations The Arab Core § 2016=> Netanyahu was boasting of Israel’s enhanced strategic ties with Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates § Unprecedented level of security cooperation achieved since 2011 due to the threat posed by militant Arab Islamists (Arab upheavals) and by Iranian power projection and its proxies in the Levant President of Chad, Nov 2018 Regional & International Strategic Relations The Arab Core § The Saudis and Emiratis have no formal ties with Israel § By 2017, the strategic relationship had developed sufficiently for all sides to acknowledge it openly § Implementing in the shadows Regional & International Strategic Relations The Eurasian Powers => § Rationale: A shared perception of a militant Islamist threat, Sunni and Shiite => close intelligence + operational cooperation overshadowed considerations of “traditional” enmity § After 2011 Israel was also able to leverage the Islamist threat as a means of developing strategic relationships with three major world powers => Russia, China and India § Each has issues with militant Islam: § Russia: Caucasus and Volga-Kazan § China: Western province of Xinjiang § India: vis-à-vis Pakistan Regional & International Strategic Relations The Eurasian Powers => § Experienced a rise in Islamist terrorism in recent years § Sought Israeli expertise and intelligence => enhanced economic & strategic ties § Syria => A crucial area of cooperation with Russia § When Russians arrived in Syria (2015), Netanyahu was the first foreign leader to meet with Putin to discuss military coordination in Syria § Not simple! § Israel needed freedom of action in the air of southern Syria to continue intercepting Syrian arms shipments to Hezbollah in Lebanon Regional & International Strategic Relations The Eurasian Powers => § Russia arrived to rescue the Syrian regime that, in coordination with Iran, was arming Hezbollah § From Israel’s standpoint, Russia was now a friendly country with shared interests (unlike during the Cold War) § Israel adjusted to the Russian military presence in Syria across its north-eastern border § Avoided extensive military involvement in Syria § Successfully coordinated limited military action with the Russians Regional & International Strategic Relations The Palestinian Issue => § Israel had powerful friends + meaningful ties that enabled it to defend its interests against crumbling Arab neighbours (e.g. Syria + militant Sunni/Shiite Islamists) Three geo-strategic levels: 1. The Arab heartland 2. The “periphery” surrounding the Islamist Middle East 3. The Asian and Eurasian powers § Another motive for Israel’s weaving such ties- the unsolvable Palestinian problem Regional & International Strategic Relations The Palestinian Issue => § 2017 => 50th anniversary of the June 1967 occupation of the West Bank, Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and Golan Heights § Arab leaders (not only) were blaming Israel for the absence of solutions § Golan Heights: Israel could point to the anarchy in Syria, territorial importance + good that Israel didn’t do a territories-for-peace deal with the Assads § Israel wants the world to recognize Its’ 1981 annexation of the Heights within the framework of post-war Syria Regional & International Strategic Relations Two states’ solution? § Fading concept of a separate Palestinian state on the West Bank due to: § Repeated Palestinian rejection of Israel’s negotiating offers § Palestinian political & geographic divisions § Ramifications of a growing Israeli Jewish settler population Regional & International Strategic Relations § Israeli political right + many from the political center: § Hopeless of peace § Recognizing the increasing irreversibility of the West Bank and East Jerusalem settlement project (over 10% of Israeli Jews now reside) 2002 Arab Peace Initiative § The Saudi- sponsored and Arab League-endorsed Arab Peace Initiative (API) offered Israel peace, security benefits + normalization with all Arab states if it first resolved the Palestinian + Golan issues Regional & International Strategic Relations Israel’s newfound strategic partners => 1. Necessary exercise in realpolitik prioritizing 2. Acknowledgement that some Arab countries were fed up with the Palestinian leadership and its insistence on impossible conditions (e.g. the “right of return” to Israel of all 5 million 1948 Palestinian refugees and their descendants) § Israel: no longer is a Palestinian solution the necessary predecessor to normalization with the Arab world § Quite the opposite: better strategic ties with the Arab world would make it easier to solve the Palestinian issue (friendly Arab states would contribute security guarantees and refugee solutions) Regional & International Strategic Relations § Israel proposed that the sequence be reversed (ties => peace) § NO serious takers for Netanyahu’s new reverse paradigm of Israel-Arab peace Israel “used to say that as soon as peace breaks out with the Palestinians, we can achieve peace with the entire Arab world. I am increasingly convinced that the process can work in the other direction too, and that normalization with the Arab world can help us to advance toward peace between us and the Palestinians” July, 2106 Regional & International Strategic Relations Western attituded towards Israel => § France, Britain and Germany were fed up with Netanyahu’s West Bank settlement expansion + no negotiation with the Palestinians § US under President Obama- repeatedly warned Israel that settlement expansion would doom it as a Jewish and democratic state § Netanyahu disrespected the office when he insisted on appealing directly to Congress to stop the Iran nuclear deal (March 2015) § 23 December 2016 => Western anger + int. community’s ongoing commitment to the Palestinians led to UN resolution 2332, unanimously condemning Israel’s settlement expansion (the US abstained) Regional & International Strategic Relations Conclusions => § Netanyahu’s campaign to acquire strategic allies regionally + globally at the expense of the Palestinian issue had registered successes and failures § Netanyahu’s gamble on minimizing the Palestinian issue through cooperation against militant Islam + enhanced security cooperation + Israeli arms and cyber sales did NOT make the Palestinian issue disappear (specially in the west) § 2017 => US President Trump § Do not oppose the settlements § Recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital- also the Golan Heights? § Long term effects remain to be seen Why are Israel and the US close allies? § Israel is the regional policemen (+ strategic importance) => fights terrorism, share intelligence with the US Israel and the US § Jewish lobby in the US: political and business ties § Share similar values (democracy, freedom, free market) § Historical ties (during the cold war) US policy towards the region (1945-1990) was centered on: 1. National security strategy (anti- terrorism) 2. Superpower rivalry (vs. the USSR) 3. Establishing special relationships with key countries (like Iran until 1979 & Israel) Israel and the US Eisenhower Doctrine (1957): Part of US policy of containing Soviet influence in the ME + securing American interests. Associated with American willingness to employ forces at the request of states in the region in the instance of armed aggression These policies were required for: 1. Eliminating competitors in the region an assure US indisputable supremacy 2. Until 1990 => to form a massive regional alliance directed against the Soviet Union and its local allies § The US was willing to resort to military means to pursue these goals (e.g. the Gulf War 1990-1991) § US’ role during the Suez Crisis of 1956 – 57 § 1978 – 79 Camp David Accords: Between Israel & Egypt under the sponsorship of US President Jimmy Carter Israel and the US Post cold war era => § US policy towards the ME was centered around the idea of “Hegemonic re-building” in the region § 1991 => US President George Bush initiated the Middle East Peace Conference in Madrid (PLOJordanian joint delegation, Syria and Israel): Gaza-Jericho agreement/ Cairo Agreement Israel and the US “Cairo Agreement” (1994) was signed between Israel and the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). First time- autonomous Palestinian Authority in the West Bank (in the Jericho area) and the Gaza Strip Post September 11=> § 2002: Bush articulated the idea of failed states and Axis of Evil US Global Strategy manifested in three priorities during that time: 1. The US would lead the world in the battle against terrorism and against aggressive regimes seeking weapons of mass destruction 2. Commitment to peace through diplomacy Israel and the US The Barcelona Process (1995) => § Launched by the Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the then, 15 EU members and 14 Mediterranean partners § Framework of managing bilateral and regional relations § Parties: Albania, Algeria, Bosnia & Herzegovinia, Croatia, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Palestinian Territories, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey Israel and the EU The Barcelona Process (1995) => § Innovative alliance based on the principles of joint ownership, dialogue and co-operation, seeking to create a Mediterranean region of peace, security and shared prosperity § The partnership was organised into three main dimensions (remain today): § Political and Security Dialogue § Economic and Financial Partnership § Social, Cultural and Human Partnership Israel and the EU The Barcelona Process (1995) => § Euro-Mediterranean Ministerial meetings were held in order to establish political commitments which drive cooperation and activity across sectors § European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) in 2004 => the Barcelona Process essentially became the multilateral forum of dialogue and cooperation between the EU and its Mediterranean partners § Complementary bilateral relations are managed through *Association Agreements signed with each partner country *An association agreement is a legally binding agreement between the EU and third countries. It is one of three special types of international agreements and is aimed to foster close relationships between the EU and countries on a wide range of topics. Israel and the EU The Barcelona Process (1995) => § Expanded and evolved into the Union for the Mediterranean (2008) => Euro-Mediterranean Partnership launched by the EU § Aimed to forge closer ties with the Middle East and with North Africa Israel and the EU § Bringing together the 27 EU members and 16 other countries (Israel, Turkey, Syria, etc.), the new forum covers nearly 800m people Next Session... 50 §Immigration to Israel §Minorities’ politics 51 Thank You For Your Attention! Questions???