POLITICS AND SOCIETY IN ISRAEL SPRING 2020 Session 12 Maya Hadar IRE215 § Peace in the Middle East => The Israel/Palestinian Conflict On The Agenda For Today2 § Recap § The Second Intifada § The Security fence/West Bank Barrier § ‘Road Map’ to Peace § Annapolis Conference (2007) § Contemporary Developments § Analysis n Conflicted Positions n Potential Solutions n Obstacles to Peace n What does the future hold? § End-Term Papers 3 Recap § Conflict over territory + religious component, since the 19th century § Jewish self determination: Zionism § 1922-1948: Jewish community in mandatory Palestine grew (80k => 650k) § Friction with local Palestinian Arabs increased § November 1947: The Partition Plan of the UN § 1964: The Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) formed in Cairo, under Yasir Arafat 4 Recap § Successive wars resulted in minor shifts of territory until the Six-Days War (1967) => Israel captured the Sinai Peninsula, Golan Heights, East Jerusalem, West Bank § UN Resolution 242: ‘Land for peace’ § The Jarring initiatives (1967-1971) § The Rogers Plan (1969) § Many Palestinians turned to the PLO + violent resistance 5 Recap § Yom Kippur War (1973) § Israel returned the Sinai Peninsula to Egypt in exchange for peace (1979) § Palestinian issue left unresolved => Surge in violent uprisings of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip First intifada (1987- 1993) § The Oslo Accords: Landmark moments in the pursuit of peace in the ME The Oslo Accords (1993, 1995) § Secret negotiations between the government of Israel and the leadership of the PLO resulted in two separate agreements § Ratified in Washington (1993: Oslo I) and Taba, Egypt (1995: Oslo II) § First agreements between Israel and the PLO § Mutual recognition § Created the Palestinian Authority + limited autonomy over the West Bank and Gaza 6 Post Oslo Accords § 1995: Prime Minister Rabin assassinated in TLV § 1998: Palestinian officials accused Israel of not following through on IDF withdrawals from Gaza + Hebron (West Bank) as set by the Oslo Accords § PA failing to adequately police Gaza + the West Bank § Early 2000: Accelerated construction of new Jewish settlements in the West Bank § Palestinian violence against Israeli citizens increased 7 Camp David Summit (II) § July 11-24, 2000 (Arafat, Barak, Clinton) § Clinton’s, Barak’s terms in office were ending, wanted to ‘cease the day’ § Goal: to negotiate a final settlement of the IsraeliPalestinian conflict in accordance with the 1993 Oslo agreement- failed § Israel + US made a few offers, such as a Palestinian state comprised of four cantons, no counter proposals, Clinton accused Arafat of not being sincere § Another round- White House (December 19-23, 2000)- failed 8 The Second Intifada § Followed the failed Camp David Summit, expansion of Jewish settlements in the West Bank + Israeli PM Sharon visited the Temple Mount- provocation § September 2000: Palestinian militants declared a ‘Second Intifada’, calling for increased violence against Israel § ‘Al-Aqsa Intifada’ § Some provisions of the Oslo Accords remain in effect, many have long been abandoned 9 § Massive rise in Palestinian suicide bombers in Israel § 2002: Israel starts building a barrier between it and the West Bank (the security wall/West Bank Barrier) § Goal: to prevent infiltrations of terrorists into Israel § Effective: Dramatically reduced suicide bombings § Heavily disputed path- cut into Palestinian land § Illegal according to the ICJ (2004) § 2005: Palestinian violence decreased (Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza strip) 10 The ‘Security Barrier’ Hamas and The Gaza Strip § Hamas: Most influential Palestinian militant movement + Islamic fundamentalist party § 2005: Israel unilaterally withdrew from the Gaza Strip § 2006: Hamas won the Palestinian Parliamentary election, defeating Fatah (the party of the PA's president Mahmoud Abbas), set the stage for a power struggle § 2007: Hamas forcibly took over the Gaza Strip in the ‘Battle of Gaza’ § Since attaining power, Hamas maintained its refusal to recognize the state of Israel, leading to crippling economic sanctions § Increased rocket fire from Gaza to Israel ‘Road Map’ for Peace § A peace plan developed by the EU, Russia, UN, and the US, presented to the Palestinian Authority and the Israeli government (2003) § A three-phase peace process that culminates with the creation of a Palestinian state in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip § Meant to solve the conflict § The Road Map stipulated a detailed time table for each one of its phases (3 years overall) Annapolis Conference § 2007: Israel, PA, hosted by US in Maryland § Expectation: Revival of the ‘Road Map for Peace’ § The two states solution to Israeli Palestinian conflict- ‘on the table’ § A ‘Joint Understanding’ was signed => Launch continuous bilateral negotiations for peace + implement the ‘Road Map’ 14 Contemporary Developments § 2013 => US attempted to revive the peace process § Disrupted when Fatah formed unity government with Hamas (2014) § 2014 => Military confrontation between the Israeli military and Hamas § Ended with a cease-fire deal brokered by Egypt § 2012 => Upgraded status for the Palestinian Authority in the UN § ”Non-member observer entity” => ”Non-member observer state” § 2015 => Widespread violent protests + ‘lone wolf’ knife attacks § Israel places checkpoints and roadblocks in the West Bank 15 Contemporary Developments § March 2018 => Violent riots at the Gaza Border, organized by Hamas § Explosive balloons, kites from Gaza caused fires in Israel § Increased rocket launching from Gaza § May 2019 => Ceasefire between Hamas and Israel § Attacks decreased but didn’t stop § Trumps’ Peace Plan for the Middle East => § Not New § Favors the Israeli position § The Land/Settlement § We were here first (ancient times) § Balfour promised us a homeland (1917) § We’ve made a desert into a productive land Contested Positions Israel => “His Majesty’s Government views with favor the establishment in Palestine of a national home for the Jewish people and will use their best endeavors to facilitate the achievement of this object, it being clearly understood that nothing shall be done which may prejudice the civil and religious rights of existing non-Jewish communities in Palestine…” Sir Arthur James Balfour Br. Foreign Secretary § Security § The Holocaust proved that we need a state § Won’t give up land taken until we have a guarantee of safety: dangerous neighborhood § Faith § ‘Zion’/Israel as God’s home for the Jewish people Contested Positions Israel => § The Land/Settlement § We’ve lived here for centuries § The Brits promises us independence (McMahon- Hussein Agreement) § Jewish immigration was making us a minority in our own land- we had to fight Contested Positions Palestine => § Security § A nation without a state cannot survive § Faith § Jerusalem is holy to Islam Contested Positions Palestine => Dome of the rock 20 Obstacles to Peace § Control of Jerusalem § Borders of the Palestinian State § Palestinian Refugees Right of return § Jewish Settlements in the West Bank § Security for Israel § The ’One state solution’ § Includes all the present territory of Israel + the West Bank (Gaza Strip?) § A single bi-national state § Jewish state with a larger Arab minority § A united Palestine Potential Solutions to the Conflict Potential Solutions to the Conflict § The ’Two States solution’ § Borders? § The Oslo accords (1993) § Trump’s Peace Plan n Nothing new or revolutionary n Favoring Israeli interests n Palestinian state- smaller than envisioned by the Oslo agreement (1993) n Preconditions for Palestinian independence Potential Solutions to the Conflict § The ’Two States solution’ § Declining support for the two-state solution, specially among young adults § Still seems to be the most favourable solution § Annexation of the Jordan Valley in July (2020)? 24 Why did Peace Talk Failed? § Bad timing, artificial deadlines, insufficient preparation, lack of support (US president, regional states), inadequate confidence-building measures, leaders lacking courage, scepticism, absence of personal chemistry and trust, etc. § Most common => Extremists allowed to set the agenda + neglect of Palestinian bottom-up economic development and state-building § Past peace talks were predicated on both parties wanting a two states solution, while at least one party prefers to maintain the status quo 25 § The Palestinians chose no agreement over one that did not meet their minimal conditions (persisted) § Hope for international support for a plan along these lines: pressure Israel into an agreement § The status quo has been made more bearable § Israel has consistently opted for the status quo rather than such an agreement § The costs of SUCH deal are much higher than of NO deal (social, security, economic, etc) Why did Peace Talk Failed? 26 § Advantage to ending the Israeli/Palestinian conflict: § Open relations (economic + diplomatic) with Arab states § Blow to efforts to delegitimise Israel § Normalizations of relations with other nations § Moral costs of occupation for Israeli society? § Relations with the Jewish Diaspora? § Consequences of maintaining the status quo from an Israeli point of view are tolerable => it is illogical to expect Israel to opt for an agreement Why did Peace Talk Failed? 27 What Does the Future Hold? § An agreement now is preferable when considering a potentially bleak future- is it really? § Can wait and see if the potential threats materialise (and if so, sign a deal then): a strategy of waiting served Israel so far § Rising support for right wing parties/the Palestinian national moment + Hamas § Agreement is only possible when at least one party has an incentive to make significant concessions/bear the costs of an agreement § Status Quo stays in place 28 End-Term Papers § 10 Pages maximum including footnotes, excluding references § Times new Roman, size 12, line spacing: double space § ‘Final paper writing guidelines’ available in the IS § Submission deadline (via IS) => 26.06.2020 29 Questions??? 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