War, Oil, Peace: 1970s MVZ247 Week 5 Decade of Transition Wars Oil Shock(s) Political earthquake Peace (Egypt) The October War-- Israeli response Invincibility shattered Deep psychological wound for Israeli public upon military and political leadership Surprise by Egypt and Syria, despite Israeli prior-knowledge (archival knowledge as of 2014 released to public) Massive losses (1/4) in men and resources and materials lost also. Defeat probable until American airlift. The October War--US Diplomatic success of Nixon/Kissinger. Major airlift of weapons and supplies to Israel from the US during the War. Operation Nickel Grass Close confrontation between US-Soviet Union Cease-fire US no longer neutral. Reaffirmed ally status with Israel and spheres of influence. 1970s: Stagnation Heavy industry declines Steel/Iron no longer strong in global markets Inflation - hyperinflation - recessions = political unrest Domestic unrest Corruption and resignation of President Nixon in US = new president Corruption and public distrust leads to PM Meir resignation in Israel = new PM Oil OPEC producing nations ‘punished’ Western nations in Europe and U.S.A for support of Israel. Strength of Arab nations (advantage) against outside nations ‘Shock’ of increased market price for crude oil drove costs for petrol/gasoline high. No significant warning to prepare domestic markets OPEC domestic considerations Unemployment and risk of rebellion fears calmed. ‘Stress Test’: U.S. Reassessment of Israel in 1975 Sec. of State Henry Kissinger sought a peace deal between Israel and the Arab nations. ‘Shuttle’ diplomacy throughout 1974 following 1973 October War The Sinai Interim Agreement was signed on 4 September 1975 between Egypt and Israel. Reassessment of the US regional policy and relation with Israel ‘worst period in American-Israeli relations’ Israel remained ally of US and started road to peace treaty with Egypt. 1977: Domestic situation in Israel American pressure for negotiations Gush Emunim movement encouraging settlement in the West Bank 1976 Land Day protest by Israeli Arab citizens Inflation triggered recession Corruption within Cabinet and GOI led to disgruntled Israeli public Rabin government by end of 1976 close to falling. Rabin resigns. Peres leads Labor Party into election. Likud Appeal to the Mizrahi (working class living in urban neighborhoods). Leader was Menachem Begin Humble and pious vs. totalitarian and extremist Bloc of right and centre-right political parties of which Begin’s Herut party is part of. Story has that it was Ariel Sharon, who persuaded Begin to form Likud in 1973 and call it that name (The Consolation) Some polls suggested historic win, conventional wisdom sided on Labor victory. 1977: The Earthquake Likud won a plurality in the Knesset ending nearly 30 years of left-wing Alignment (Labor) rule. Known popularly as “the revolution” by TV anchor Haim Yavin who said those words on TV. The election on 17 May, 1977 saw start of period where left and right wing blocs held roughly equal numbers of seats in the Knesset Camp David--US Egyptian leader and Israeli leader bi-lateral meetings with US President Jimmy Carter Creates myth of US indispensability. Without US pressure “hardball” of carrot and sticks no deal Creates negotiations model applied to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict President Clinton in 2000 President Bush 43 in 2002 Camp David--Israel Prime Minister Begin the HAWK turned DOVE…. Peace Accords first significant deal with Arab nation Creates permanent border. Defensible border intact Retains national security aims.