2020 General Election Peter Spáč Support of SMER-SD (2012-2016) 2016 General Election New Government •Drop of SMER-SD excluded a one-party government • •Two scenarios: •SMER-SD + several partners •Grand coalition without SMER-SD • •Final outcome: •SMER-SD, SNS, Most-Hid, Network •Fico as the PM for the third time •Network collapsed shortly after that and part of its MPs went to Most • •“The barrier against extremism” Acceptance of the government SMER-SD, SNS, Most-Hid, Network Acceptable Not acceptable Do not know SMER-SD 85 11 3 SNS 60 29 12 Most-Hid 39 47 13 Network 36 45 18 KDH 31 53 16 We are Family 23 62 15 LSNS 19 71 10 SaS 19 77 4 SMK 16 84 0 OLaNO 13 84 3 Non voters 30 45 25 All 39 47 14 The Breaking Point in February 2018 •Murder of investigative journalist J. Kuciak and his fiancée M. Kušnírová at their home • •Tremendous consequences: •Public impact comparable to November 1989 •Mass demonstrations around the whole country •Shifts in public opinions •Personal earthquake in the government •Negative effect primarily on SMER-SD Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, vonkajšie, dav, budova Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, ľudia, obrovské, dav Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, dav, vonkajšie, obrovské Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je obrovské, koláč, mesto Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, stojaci, muž, oblek Automaticky generovaný popis Personal Consequences •Various prominent officials forced to step down •PM Fico •Minister of Interior Kaliňák •President of the Slovak Police Force Gašpar • •Peter Pellegrini as the new PM (SMER-SD) •Fico remained as SMER-SD leader • •The General Attorney promised to unleash “hell” Support of SMER-SD Investigation (1) •The Italian scenario Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, muž, vonkajšie, hora Automaticky generovaný popis Investigation (2) •The Kočner network scenario • •Murder as revenge • •Network of judges granting him protection • •Threema New parties in the opposition •Progressive Slovakia (centre-left and liberal) •Together – Civic Democracy (centre-right) • •Successful cooperation in 2018 local and 2019 presidential election • •For the People: •Established by Andrej Kiska after finishing his mandate •More conservative leaning • Four Months Before Election Party Votes in % Votes - Threshold Projected Seats SMER-SD 20.0 15.0 36 PS – Together 11.7 4.7 21 For the People 10.6 5.6 19 LSNS 10.3 5.3 19 We are Family 7.0 2.0 13 SNS 6.8 1.8 13 KDH 5.7 0.7 10 OLaNO 5.7 0.7 10 SaS 5.0 0.0 9 Most-Hid 4.1 Survey by Focus Agency, October 30 – November 6, N = 1,020 • Integration Attempts •“Democratic” opposition: •PS-Together, For the People, OLaNO, SaS, KDH •Separate line of KDH •For the People only accepted a cooperation of all parties or nothing àas a result, all parties continued alone (and PS-Together as a coalition) • •„If there are too many parties just above the threshold, it is naive to expect that voters will coordinate their behavior to save all of them” •Peter Spáč, 11.11.2020 •(https://dennikn.sk/1647669/volby-2020-nerozhodnu-vitazi-ale-porazeni/) Further Integration Attempts •Hungarian parties: •Both Most-Hid and SMK (now as MKO-MKS) below the threshold •Too many Hungarian parties for the single Hungarian minority •Initial hope ended without any result • •Far right and protest parties: •LSNS and the newly emerged Homeland •Kotleba and Harabin scored 530,000 votes in 2019 presidential election (roughly ¼ of all votes) •Discussions on integration failed Main Topics in the Campaign •The 2018 murder •Second anniversary only a few days before the election • •Corruption, scandals of SMER-SD, linkages to Kočner • •Rise of LSNS and extremism in general • •Unsuccessful attempt to bring back “old” topics, e.g. immigrants Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, osoba, cesta, ľudia Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, príroda, trávnik, vlak Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, muž, predné, držiaci Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je osoba, vonkajšie, muž, stojaci Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je držiaci, stojaci, chlapec, mladé Automaticky generovaný popis Expert Evaluation of the Campaign (N = 56) Obrázok, na ktorom je jedlo, znak Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je koleso Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je vonkajšie, znak, fľaša, čierne Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie, znak, hodiny Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je dáždnik Automaticky generovaný popis Obrázok, na ktorom je kreslenie Automaticky generovaný popis Few Days Before the Election •SMER and SNS announced vast social benefits before the election • •13th pension •Doubling of child allowances •Abolishment of highway tolls • •Only the pensions were passed in parliament •SMER-SD, SNS, LSNS, We are Family • 2020 general election New Government •OLaNO, We are Family, SaS, For the People • •PM Matovič • •95 MPs (90 required to amend the Constitution) • •Question of stability and survival