Peter Spáč
17.3.2020


The fate of Mečiar
http://hnonline.sk/sites/default/files/attachments/images/490/31763490-meciar_s.jpg
http://i.sme.sk/cdata/5/63/6354885/luxc-r416.jpg
http://img.ct24.cz/cache/616x411/article/38/3791/379082.jpg?1343141200

Party system in 1998
—Huge polarization of the party system
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—Parties divided into two blocs:
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—Governmental parties (HZDS, SNS, ZRS)
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—Opposition (centre right SDK, leftist SDL, Hungarian SMK, new, leftist and populist SOP)
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Elections 1998
Party
Votes (in %)
Seats
HZDS
27
43
SDK
26,33
42
SDL
14,66
23
SMK
9,12
15
SNS
9,07
14
SOP
8,01
13
ZRS
1,3
0
Others
5,81
0
150

Governments after 1998
Years
Prime Minister
Members
Ideology
1998 – 2002
Dzurinda I
SDK, SDL, SMK, SOP (4)
From left to right
2002 – 2006
Dzurinda II
SDKU, SMK, KDH, ANO (4)
Right
2006 – 2010
Fico I
SMER, SNS, HZDS (3)
From left to right
2010 – 2012
Radičová
SDKU, SaS, Most, KDH (4)
Right
2012 – 2016
Fico II
SMER (1)
Left
2016 - 2020
Fico III / Pellegrini
SMER, SNS, Most (3)
From left to right

Government 1998 - 2002
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—Prime Minister – Mikuláš Dzurinda
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—High number of members – 4 vs. 10
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—Main task – to restore the country after Mečiar’s era:
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—Return to liberal democratic regime
—Retrieval of the Slovakia’s international image
—Economic reforms, salvation of banks
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http://eaq.sk/files/imagecache/story_display/files/dz%20tri.jpg

Low stability of governmental parties
—Affected all parties except the Hungarians (SMK)
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—Centre-right alliance SDK:
—2000 – Dzurinda establishes Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKU)
—Only Christian Democrats (KDH) survived
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—Collapse of the left (SDL, SOP):
—Negatively affected by the unpopular economic policy
—SOP leader Schuster elected for president in 1999
—SDL leading figure Fico left his party and establishes a new one
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Opposition
—Maintained several changes
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—HZDS:
—Hard adaptation on oppositional role
—Non-constructive opposition work
—Stabilization after return of Mečiar to active politics
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—SNS:
—Post-electoral destabilization
—Division into 2 parties and interim marginalization
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http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg
http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif

Opposition – new parties
—Smer (Direction), 1999:
—Created by ex-SDL official Robert Fico
—Refused the left-right division
—Project of the third way
—Strong populism, criticism of both eras – Mečiar’s and Dzurinda’s
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—Alliance of the New Citizen (ANO), 2001:
—Created by media magnate Pavol Rusko
—The Slovak „Berlusconi“
—Populism, centre-right liberal values
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http://www.supernavigator.sk/logos/12017/12017232.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539
px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png

Perception of Prime Ministers (2001)
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Both positive
Mečiar + Dzurinda -
Mečiar - Dzurinda +
Both negative
Do not know (at least one)
HZDS
5,2
88,1
0
2,2
4,5
SNS
1
57,3
6,3
20,8
14,6
KSS
0
44,9
6,1
42,9
6,1
SDKU
4
3
81,2
3
8,9
SMK
1,4
2,1
59,3
20,7
16,4
KDH
7,4
5,6
29,6
29,6
27,8
ANO
0
15,3
20,8
55,6
8,3
SMER
1,9
24,1
17,5
42,9
26,5
non-voters
1,2
14,7
13,5
44,1
13,7
undecided
1,5
14,2
16,1
38,7
29,5

The „map“ of the party system in 2002
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http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg
http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif
http://madari.sk/wp-content/themes/madari/functions/timthumb.php?src=http://madari.sk/files/2012/05
/mkp-logo-1024x478.jpg&w=400&h=250 http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg
http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539
px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png
http://www.supernavigator.sk/logos/12017/12017232.jpg

Election 2002 – the crisis of the left
Party
Votes (in %)
Seats
HZDS
19,5
36
SDKU
15,09
28
SMER
13,46
25
SMK
11,16
20
KDH
8,25
15
ANO
8,01
15
KSS
6,32
11
SDL + SOP
1,36
0
Others
7,11
0
150

Government 2002 - 2006
—Dzurinda remained Prime Minister
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—No leftist parties
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—End of the integration process – EU, NATO (2004)
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—Unpopular economic reforms – taxes, healthcare, social system
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—Since 2003 a minority government
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http://eaq.sk/files/imagecache/story_display/files/dz%20tri.jpg

Restoration of the left (SMER)
—Shift from populism to social democracy (SMER-SD)
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—2003-2004 – SMER absorbed smaller leftist parties
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—Strong criticism of governmental reforms
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—Huge rise of popularity

Into EU! But not with bare asses…



People deserve securities
Výsledek obrázku pro ludia si zasluzia istoty







2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Gender
Men
54.9
56.5
49.3
35.8
39.3
41.3
Women
45.1
43.5
50.7
64.2
60.7
58.7
Age
18 - 24
19.9
10
7.3
2.3
4.6
2.8
25 - 34
25.7
24.3
20.3
8.4
8.2
8.8
35 - 44
28.8
15
16.5
9.9
6.8
13.4
45 - 59
19.9
32.1
32
32.4
35.1
30
60 and more
5.8
18.6
23.8
47
45.3
45
Education
Primary
17.3
12.5
18.6
16.1
17.3
16.6
Lower secondary
39.1
34
35.3
35.4
31.1
30.6
Higher secondary
33.8
43.1
36.1
37.2
41.4
41.6
University
9.8
10.4
10
11.2
10.1
11.2
Left-Right
Left
31.1
42.9
46.6
62.5
64.6
58.4
Centre
54.4
47.9
44.2
32.6
30.5
30.7
Right
14.4
9.3
9.2
4.9
4.9
10.9
Income
Low
34.5
31.6
17.8

19.9
35.6
Middle
59.5
59.2
61.7

47.1
50
High
5.9
9.2
20.4

33
14.4

Election 2006 – the new leader
Party
Votes (in %)
Seats
Smer
29,14
50
SDKÚ
18,35
31
SNS
11,73
20
SMK
11,68
20
HZDS
8,79
15
KDH
8,31
14
ANO
1,42
0
Others
12
0
150

Government 2006
—Prime Minister – Robert Fico
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—Return to ideological heterogeneity:
—Smer - social democrats
—SNS - radical right
—HZDS – vague
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—Analogies with Mečiar’s government 1994-98:
—Total dominance of the strongest party
—Numerous scandals, problematic style of politics
—Prime Minister as a dividing line in the party system
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http://img.cas.sk/img/16/article/629695/fico/robert.jpg

Changes in the centre-right after 2006
—Most-Híd (The Bridge):
—Created by former leader of SMK Béla Bugár
—Project of Hungarian and Slovak cooperation
—Replaced the position of SMK
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—Freedom and Solidarity (SaS):
—Created by enterpreneur Richard Sulík
—Liberal, libertarian and postmaterialistic
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—Together with SDKU and KDH these parties declared not to cooperate with SMER after elections 2010
à sign of polarization
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http://www.pozorblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hid-most.png
http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg

For future generations!



The „map“ of the party system in 2010
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http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg
http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif
http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg
http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539
px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png
http://madari.sk/wp-content/themes/madari/functions/timthumb.php?src=http://madari.sk/files/2012/05
/mkp-logo-1024x478.jpg&w=400&h=250
http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg

The „map“ of the party system in 2010
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http://ipolitika.sk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/hzds_logo1.jpg
http://www.novespravy.sk/public/media/logo_sns.gif
http://www.sdku-ds.sk/data/Download/SDKU-DS_logo.jpg
http://www.demagog.sk/data/diskusia/s/136136588257.jpg
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/de/thumb/5/50/SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg/539
px-SMER_%E2%80%93_socialna_demokracia_Logo.svg.png
http://ipravda.sk/res/2010/04/12/thumbs/122312-sloboda-a-solidarita-logo-superHP.jpg
http://www.pozorblog.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/06/hid-most.png

Election 2010 – HZDS is out
Party
Votes (in %)
Seats
Smer
34,79
62
SDKÚ
15,42
28
SaS
12,14
22
KDH
8,52
15
Most-Híd
8,12
14
SNS
5,07
9
HZDS
4,32
0
Others
11,62
0
150

Výsledek obrázku pro mečiar baranica



Government 2010-2012
—Prime Minister – Iveta Radičová
—Members – SDKU, SaS, Most-Hid, KDH
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—2011 – the EFSF vote:
—SaS refusal to vote for the rescue mechanism
—EFSF vote joined with the vote of confidence à end of the government
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—à Collapse of the right
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http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Iveta+Radicova+New+Slovak+Prime+Minister+Visits+s4Sob6mp22Fl.jpg

Before elections 2012
—Frustration of centre-right voters
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—The Gorilla case:
—Revealed strong corrupt ties between politics and financial groups
—Biggest negative impact on SDKU
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—Ordinary People and Independent Personalities (OLaNO):
—Populist „party“, four members
—Forum for independent candidates
—Vast criticism of existing parties and corruption
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http://obycajniludia.sk/data/files/34_olano_logo-jpg.jpg
http://blog.foreignpolicy.com/files/images/baby-gorilla.jpg

Election 2012 – A one man show
Party
Votes (in %)
Seats
Smer
44,41
83
KDH
8,82
16
OLaNO
8,55
16
Most-Híd
6,89
13
SDKU
6,09
11
SaS
5,88
11
Others
19,36
0
150

Government 2012-16
—A one party government
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—Prime Minister – Robert Fico
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—No coalition partners à full responsibility
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—Social democracy with far right appeals
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http://img.cas.sk/img/16/article/629695/fico/robert.jpg

Výsledek obrázku pro chranime slovensko



Not enough chaos? (2015)
—Shift from populism to social democracy (SMER-SD)
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—2003-2004 – SMER absorbed smaller leftist parties
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—Strong criticism of governmental reforms
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—Huge rise of popularity

Election 2016 – Earthquake
Party
Votes (in %)
Votes vs. 2012
Seats
Smer
28,3
- 16,1
49
SaS
12,1
+ 6,2
21
OLaNO
11,0
+ 2,5
19
SNS
8,6
+ 4,1
15
LSNS
8,0
+ 6,5
14
We are Family
6,6
11
Most-Hid
6,5
- 0,4
11
#SIET
5,6
10
150

Election 2016
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—Huge decline of SMER
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—Disappointment for #SIET
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—New protest parties in parliament:
—We are Family – populist
—LSNS – extreme right
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—New government – SMER, nationalist SNS and Hungarian Most
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Výsledek obrázku pro boris kollar



1488-b



Governments after 1998
Years
Prime Minister
Members
Ideology
1998 – 2002
Dzurinda I
SDK, SDL, SMK, SOP (4)
From left to right
2002 – 2006
Dzurinda II
SDKU, SMK, KDH, ANO (4)
Right
2006 – 2010
Fico I
SMER, SNS, HZDS (3)
From left to right
2010 – 2012
Radičová
SDKU, SaS, Most, KDH (4)
Right
2012 – 2016
Fico II
SMER (1)
Left
2016 - 2020
Fico III / Pellegrini
SMER, SNS, Most (3)
From left to right

Governments after 1998
Years
Prime Minister
Consequences
1998 – 2002
Dzurinda I
Collapse of the left
2002 – 2006
Dzurinda II
Restoration of the left
2006 – 2010
Fico I
New dividing line in party system
2010 – 2012
Radičová
Crisis of the right
2012 – 2016
Fico II
Political earthquake
2016 - 2020
Fico III / Pellegrini
See lecture on 2020 election