BSSn4495:
Qualitative
research in
security
studies
Nuts and bolts of
process tracing
April 20, 2021
Miriam Matejova, PhD
Agenda
• Process-tracing:
advantages,
disadvantages, issues,
practice
How to process trace?
Examining a single instance in which the outcome
did or did not occur and trying to explain why.
1. We wonder: Does C cause E?
2. We see that E is present and that C is present in
a case.
– But this doesn’t tell us that C caused E in that case.
How could we figure that out?
3. Think about the causal logic through which C
would have caused E if C did cause E.
4. Now investigate the case to see whether that
causal logic in fact unfolded within the case.
What caused DRC civil war?
• Ethnic tensions?
Causal logic(s):
Historical ethnic hatreds → desire by each
group to dominate or extinguish the other →
increase in violence by each side designed to
dominate/extinguish other group → spirals
into all-out war
What caused DRC civil war?
• Ethnic tensions?
Causal logic(s):
Historical ethnic hatreds → desire by each group
to dominate or extinguish the other → increase
in violence by each side designed to
dominate/extinguish other group → spirals into
all-out war
What caused DRC civil war?
• Ethnic tensions?
Causal logic(s):
Historical ethnic hatreds → desire by each group
to dominate or extinguish the other → increase
in violence by each side designed to
dominate/extinguish other group → spirals into
all-out war
Process tracing tests
Hoop test
• A test that a hypothesis has to pass for us to believe it
(a “hoop” the theory has to jump through)
– If hoop test failed: the hypothesis is greatly weakened
– If hoop test passed: the hypothesis survives, but doesn’t
mean it’s true
Smoking gun test
• A test that can point strongly to the correctness of a
hypothesis
– If smoking gun test failed: the hypothesis survives
– If smoking gun test passed: the hypothesis is very likely
true
Process tracing tests (cont.)
• Straw in the wind test
– Passing = hypothesis is relevant but not confirmed
– Failing = hypothesis is not eliminated but slightly
weakened
• Doubly decisive test
– Passing = hypothesis is confirmed and others are
eliminated
– Failing = hypothesis is eliminated
What happens when tests are passed or
failed?
H fails H passes
Hoop test H greatly
weakened
H slightly
strengthened
Smoking gun
test
H slightly
weakened
H greatly
strengthened
Asymmetric outcomes
Process tracing tests: issues
• Deterministic vs probabilistic conclusions from
PT tests
– Hoop test as necessary for the validity of
hypothesis?
– Smoking gun test as sufficient for the validity of
hypothesis?
• Easy vs difficult PT tests
• Triviality of conditions
• Ideational “clues”
Process tracing: advantages
• Yields in-depth knowledge of context
• Opportunity for discovery
– Immersion in a case often suggests causal claims
we hadn’t thought of before
– Not just testing theories, but developing new
theories
• Avoids troubles with correlation
– Studying causal processes → less chance to be
fooled by spuriousness, reverse causation,
randomness
Process-tracing: practice
• Choose a causal question
• Think of a cause that produces a somewhat lengthy
causal chain to the effect
• Think of a causal logic/causal story that connects the
cause to the effect
– Causal logic: X→p→q→r→Y
• What evidence would a researcher look for to support
this causal logic in your case?
• Why are some countries poor?
• Resource curse → declined econ development
• Resource curse → corruption and
monopolization of resource market → rentier
state doesn’t care about social/econ
development → decline in economy